ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

อังคาร, มิถุนายน 16, 2026

USD/CHF gains ground after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7950 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds steady amid broad market caution.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF appreciates as the US Dollar remains stronger amid market caution ahead of further US-Iran peace talk updates.Traders price in the odds of the Fed holding interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% this Wednesday.Money markets expect the Swiss National Bank to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of the year.USD/CHF gains ground after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7950 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds steady amid broad market caution. Investors remain on the defensive as they await further updates regarding Iran’s unresolved nuclear program.Both Washington and Tehran have not released the official text of the agreement; major shipping lines are delaying vessel rerouting through the strategic waterway until full transparency is established.Even though US President Donald Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been signed to end the conflict and reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, market participants remain deeply cautious. According to Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency, the current draft calls for the strait to reopen within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, which could be attributed to the higher US inflation due to elevated energy prices linked to Middle East tensions. Traders will be closely monitoring the press conference for cues on how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to lead the central bank into its next era.Sharp declines in oil prices have helped alleviate inflationary pressures, reducing expectations for further monetary tightening. Consequently, money markets are now pricing in no additional interest rate changes from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) for the remainder of the year.This aligns with the latest data showing Swiss Producer and Import Prices fell 1.8% year-on-year in May. While this marks the softest pace of deflation in five months, easing from April's 2.0% decline due to slower drops in import prices, the monthly figures caught markets off guard. On a month-over-month basis, the price index fell 0.4%, missing forecasts for a 0.4% increase and reversing April’s 0.8% gain. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

Rabobank’s Global Daily highlights that reported progress on a US-Iran understanding has not removed key risks around the Strait of Hormuz, with only a brief memorandum agreed and major details still unclear.

Rabobank’s Global Daily highlights that reported progress on a US-Iran understanding has not removed key risks around the Strait of Hormuz, with only a brief memorandum agreed and major details still unclear. The bank notes conflicting timelines for restoring flows, Iran’s 60‑day toll threat, and incentives on both sides that could still disrupt Oil shipments.Hormuz reopening and Oil flow risks"What we are hearing about is the reopening of Hormuz, which Trump claims has already happened: however, ‘mine your language’ on what that means. A US official says it might take 1-2 weeks to get energy flowing through the strait again. Other maritime experts suggest it could take 40-50 days.""Recall it then takes weeks for energy cargoes to arrive at their final destinations if/when an exodus of trapped ships begins. That said, this morning three Iranian oil tankers and two ships carrying essential goods reportedly passed the US naval blockade.""Iran also states ships can transit Hormuz freely for the 60-day negotiation period with the US, but after that it will charge de facto tolls. That’s something the US opposes and is a significant flashpoint - alongside many others. If you are a crude carrier, once you finally escape Hormuz, do you return knowing a geopolitical deadline is ticking down, or opt for new routes?""From Iran’s perspective, there is a case to see the deal collapse within months. Indeed, if Tehran cannot get the benefits promised by the US because it won’t take the steps required of it, then it arguably has little incentive to keep Hormuz open.""Why allow energy to flow freely, taking pressure off the US and the world, while the GCC and others build alternative supply chains that reduce the strait’s strategic threat? Use it or lose it makes more sense, geopolitically."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

The AUD/JPY cross loses traction to around 113.20 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) following the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision.

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) following the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision. The attention will shift to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision later in the day. As widely expected, the BoJ decided to raise the short-term interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.0% from 0.75% after concluding the two-day monetary policy review meeting on Tuesday. The BoJ makes a rate decision by a 7-1 vote. According to the Monetary Policy Statement, the board members will continue to increase the policy rate in response to developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions.BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who is hospitalized for medical treatment, missed the meeting and did not vote. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will hold a press conference on Ueda's behalf at 06:30 GMT to explain the policy decision.On the Aussie front, the RBA is set to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold at 4.35% at its June policy meeting on Tuesday, with money markets paring bets on further tightening. This would be a pause following three consecutive 25 bps rate hikes earlier this year. Traders will closely monitor the press conference to see whether RBA Governor Michele Bullock signals some comfort at the current rate or keeps the door open to further moves to counter stubborn price pressures.  Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) surrenders some of its early gains against its major currency peers during the Asian trading session after the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy decision.

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The EUR/JPY pair rebounds from the day’s low of 185.45 to near 185.65, but is still 0.12% higher than its Monday closing price, as the BoJ has raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 1%, as expected, in the absence of Governor Kazuo Ueda, who has been hospitalized. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.04% 0.08% -0.08% 0.06% 0.18% 0.21% 0.05% EUR -0.04% 0.05% -0.07% 0.06% 0.13% 0.16% 0.02% GBP -0.08% -0.05% -0.13% 0.00% 0.07% 0.12% -0.03% JPY 0.08% 0.07% 0.13% 0.12% 0.23% 0.28% 0.14% CAD -0.06% -0.06% -0.00% -0.12% 0.11% 0.14% -0.02% AUD -0.18% -0.13% -0.07% -0.23% -0.11% 0.05% -0.10% NZD -0.21% -0.16% -0.12% -0.28% -0.14% -0.05% -0.15% CHF -0.05% -0.02% 0.03% -0.14% 0.02% 0.10% 0.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). The Japanese central bank was expected to tighten its monetary conditions to counter higher inflationary pressures, driven by elevated energy prices due to Middle East conflicts.Meanwhile, investors await BoJ’s monetary policy guidance from Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, who will brief the media on behalf of recently hospitalized Governor Ueda.The Euro trades higher against its other peers, as a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) officials have predicted that the central bank would need to do more to tame inflation, even as a peace deal between the United States (US) and Iran has been confirmed and the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, has been reopened.ECB Governing Council Member and President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nage,l said on Monday that there seems to be no relief from high inflation in the foreseeable future, as it will take “months for oil supply to return to normal”. Nagel also warned of “second-round effects of inflation” and stated that the central bank is “keeping all options open for July meeting”.ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks also stated on Monday that the central bank “needs to act again, if needed,” while predicting upside inflation risks to persist.Later in the day, investors will focus on German ZEW Survey data for June, which will be published at 09:00 GMT. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

USD/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 160.10 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains subdued as the Japanese Yen (JPY) holds ground following the release of the interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

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The pair remains subdued as the Japanese Yen (JPY) holds ground following the release of the interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).The BoJ decided to increase the short-term interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 1% after concluding the two-day monetary policy review meeting on Tuesday. The decision came in line with the market expectations.However, the downside of the USD/JPY pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from the market caution ahead of further developments regarding US-Iran peace talks.Both Washington and Tehran have not released the official text of the agreement; major shipping lines are delaying vessel rerouting through the strategic waterway until full transparency is established.Even though US President Donald Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been signed to end the conflict and reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, market participants remain deeply cautious. According to Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency, the current draft calls for the strait to reopen within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders will be closely monitoring the press conference for cues on how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to lead the central bank into its next era. Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Last release: Tue Jun 16, 2026 03:00 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 1% Consensus: 1% Previous: 0.75% Source: Bank of Japan

Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (1%)

South Korea Money Supply Growth increased to 8.1% in April from previous 7.2%

The US Dollar (USD) trades firmly near Monday’s high ahead of the start of the two-day Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting, whose decision will be announced on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Dollar Index clings to gains near 99.70 in the countdown to the two-day Fed meeting.Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range.The US and Iran sign a peace framework, which restricts Tehran from building nuclear weapons.The US Dollar (USD) trades firmly near Monday’s high ahead of the start of the two-day Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting, whose decision will be announced on Wednesday. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, clings to Monday’s gains near 99.70.The impact of the Fed’s monetary policy decision and the interest rate guidance will be significant on the US Dollar, being the first under the new Chairman, Kevin Warsh.Investors expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range as the United States (US) inflation has accelerated significantly in the past few months due to elevated energy prices in the wake of Middle East tensions.However, the signing of a peace framework between the US and Iran on Monday and an eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has put some anchoring on inflation expectations, experts warned some more inflation pain in the near future as normal trading won’t return anytime soon.Meanwhile, investors await the details of “a page and a half” document signed between the US and Iran to confirm whether the Hormuz remains toll-free or not. Iran had long demanded recognition of its authority near the Hormuz to start charging tolls from ships passing by. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD loses ground after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 1.3400 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair inches lower as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from the market caution ahead of further developments regarding US-Iran peace talks.

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The pair inches lower as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from the market caution ahead of further developments regarding US-Iran peace talks.Because neither Washington nor Tehran has released the official text of the agreement, major shipping lines are delaying vessel rerouting through the strategic waterway until full transparency is established.Even though US President Donald Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been signed to end the conflict and reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, market participants remain deeply cautious. According to Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency, the current draft calls for the strait to reopen within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders will be closely monitoring the press conference for cues on how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to lead the central bank into its next era.Markets rallied broadly across asset classes, buoyed by the interim US-Iran agreement despite lingering uncertainty. Meanwhile, investors are bracing for a packed United Kingdom (UK) data week. High-stakes inflation, employment, and retail sales figures are on deck, alongside a crucial Bank of England interest rate decision and Thursday's high-profile Makerfield by-election. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The NZD/USD pair loses momentum to around 0.5810 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) following the Chinese economic data. All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday. 

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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) following the Chinese economic data. All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday showed that China’s Retail Sales missed expectations in May, falling 0.6% YoY. This figure followed a rise of 0.2% in April and came in weaker than the market expectation of 0%.Meanwhile, Chinese Industrial Production climbed 4.5% YoY in May, compared to 4.1% in April, above the market consensus of 4.3%. The Fixed Asset Investment came in at -4.1% year-to-date (YTD) YoY in May, weaker than the expected decrease of 2.0%. The April reading was a decline of 1.6%.The China-proxy Kiwi attracts some sellers following the mixed Chinese data. These reports impact the NZD, as China is New Zealand's largest trading partner.The attention will shift to the Fed policy meeting on Wednesday. The Fed is likely to keep its key interest rate unchanged at its June policy meeting as it remains in "wait-and-see" mode. Traders will closely watch how new Fed chair Kevin Warsh will lead the US central bank into its next era. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) faces further selling pressure against its major currency peers during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, sliding 0.16% to near 0.7060 against the US Dollar (USD).

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The Aussie pair was already under pressure since the beginning of Tuesday’s session after a three-day upside move, and has dropped after the release of the weak China data.Given that the Australian economy relies heavily on its exports to Beijing, economic data from China carries significant influence on the Australian Dollar.The National Bureau of Statistics of China has reported that Retail Sales declined by 0.6% Year-on-Year (YoY) in May, while they were expected to remain flat after rising 0.2% in April. Fixed Asset Investment YoY contracted at a faster pace of 4.1% vs. -2% and the prior reading of -1.6%.China’s Industrial Production data has come in stronger at 4.5% against 4.3% estimates and the previous release of 4.1%.Meanwhile, investors brace for high volatility in the antipodean as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to announce its monetary policy at 04:30 GMT, in which it is expected to leave its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35%.This will be the first RBA’s monetary policy this year, when it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. So far this year, the RBA has raised its OCR by 25 basis points (bps) in all three policy meetings to tame higher inflationary pressures in Australia.Investors will pay close attention to the RBA’s guidance regarding the monetary policy outlook, at times when the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) has started showing signs of cooling down, and employment conditions appear to be worsening.In April, Australia’s CPI arrived lower at 4.2% Year-on-Year (YoY), missed 4.4% estimates, and the prior reading of 4.6%. The Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.5% from expectations and the previous reading of 4.3%. Economic Indicator RBA Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Next release: Tue Jun 16, 2026 04:30 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 4.35% Previous: 4.35% Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

USD/CAD remains stronger for the fourth successive day, trading around 1.3990 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair is holding its ground as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes ahead of further developments regarding US-Iran peace talks.

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The pair is holding its ground as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes ahead of further developments regarding US-Iran peace talks. Because neither Washington nor Tehran has released the official text of the agreement, major shipping lines are delaying vessel reroutings through the strategic waterway until full transparency is established.The USD/CAD pair may appreciate further as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles against a backdrop of lower oil prices. Even though US President Donald Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been signed to end the conflict and reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, market participants remain deeply cautious. According to Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency, the current draft calls for the strait to reopen within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.On the macro front, lower oil prices are easing concerns that an energy-driven inflation spike could trigger a hawkish shift by global central banks. Bond yields have also declined, reducing worries over elevated borrowing costs from the Bank of Canada (BoC).Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders will be closely monitoring the press conference for cues on how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to lead the central bank into its next era. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

China’s Retail Sales fell 0.6% year-over-year (YoY) in May vs. 0% expected and 0.2% in April, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Tuesday.

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translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} China’s Retail Sales fell 0.6% year-over-year (YoY) in May vs. 0% expected and 0.2% in April, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Tuesday.Chinese Industrial Production climbed 4.5% YoY in the same period, compared to the 4.3% forecast and 4.1% seen previously.Meanwhile, the Fixed Asset Investment came in at -4.1% year-to-date (YTD) YoY in May, weaker than the expected decrease of 2.0%. The April reading was a decline of 1.6%.The China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD) attracts some sellers following the mixed Chinese data. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.18% lower on the day at 0.7060.  Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.04% 0.08% -0.11% 0.04% 0.19% 0.14% 0.04% EUR -0.04% 0.05% -0.13% 0.02% 0.15% 0.11% 0.00% GBP -0.08% -0.05% -0.17% -0.02% 0.09% 0.06% -0.04% JPY 0.11% 0.13% 0.17% 0.14% 0.28% 0.25% 0.17% CAD -0.04% -0.02% 0.02% -0.14% 0.13% 0.09% -0.01% AUD -0.19% -0.15% -0.09% -0.28% -0.13% -0.03% -0.13% NZD -0.14% -0.11% -0.06% -0.25% -0.09% 0.03% -0.10% CHF -0.04% -0.01% 0.04% -0.17% 0.00% 0.13% 0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). What do China’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production data mean for the Australian Dollar?China’s Retail Sales measure the value of goods sold by retailers in China, while Industrial Production shows the volume of production of Chinese industries such as factories and manufacturing facilities. Both figures could impact the Australian Dollar, as China is Australia's largest trading partner. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) does not set policy based on Chinese data alone, but China's economic performance can influence Australia's growth and inflation outlook.Stronger-than-expected readings suggest a robust economy and can significantly affect demand for Australian exports, which could improve sentiment toward China-linked currencies. On the other hand, weaker-than-expected outcomes could raise concerns about China's economic recovery and weigh on market sentiment and the Aussie.Technical Analysis: AUD/USD remains capped under the key 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, AUD/USD holds just under the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which keeps the near-term tone mildly bearish as the pair struggles to extend last week’s recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 44 sits below the neutral 50 line, hinting that upside momentum is limited while sellers retain a slight advantage.On the topside, the immediate hurdle is the 100-day SMA at 0.7085, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease existing downside pressure and open the door to a more sustained rebound. With no nearby technical supports from the provided dataset, any pullback from the current area would leave spot vulnerable to a deeper slide, with traders likely watching prior swing lows and psychological round figures for the next demand zones beyond the scope of the current indicators.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator Retail Sales (YoY) The Retail Sales data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, measures the value of goods sold by retailers in China. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the YoY reading comparing sales values in the reference month with the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Mon May 18, 2026 02:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 0.2% Consensus: 2% Previous: 1.7% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) registered at -4.1%, below expectations (-2%) in May

China Retail Sales (YoY) came in at -0.6%, below expectations (0%) in May

China Industrial Production (YoY) came in at 4.5%, above expectations (4.3%) in May

China House Price Index remains unchanged at -3.5% in May

On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.8108 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8088 and 6.7605 Reuters estimate.

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The USD/JPY pair declines to around 160.15 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. All eyes will be on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision later on Tuesday. 

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) following a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. All eyes will be on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision later on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Iran agreed not to ever have a nuclear weapon, per the Guardian. On Monday, Trump and Vice President JD Vance both virtually signed the agreement to end a US blockade of Iranian ports, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and start 60 days of nuclear negotiations. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signed the document for the Iranian side. Hopes of a US-Iran peace agreement provide some support to the JPY and act as a headwind for the pair. The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates to a 31-year high on ‌Tuesday, marking another landmark step in normalizing monetary policy as it focuses on taming price pressures from the energy shock caused by the Iran war.BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is in the hospital with an infected liver cyst. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will chair the meeting, marking the first time a BOJ governor has missed a policy session since 1998. Fellow Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will handle the post-meeting press conference. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price inches higher after registering 3.7% losses in the previous day, trading around $80.10 per barrel during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

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Crude oil prices move little as traders adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of a looming United States (US)-Iran interim peace accord.US President Donald Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been signed to end the conflict and reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, but the market remains deeply cautious. Neither Washington nor Tehran has released the official text of the agreement, prompting major shipping companies to delay routing their vessels through the strategic waterway until full transparency is established. According to Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency, the current draft calls for the strait to reopen within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.Anticipating a return to the global market, the state-owned National Iranian Oil Company significantly slashed its official selling price for July light crude to Asian buyers. The premium was cut to $7.15 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, a steep drop from the previous month’s premium of $13 a barrel. This aggressive pricing strategy comes as the energy sector grapples with the fallout of a three-month blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint responsible for a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. Millions of barrels of supply have been lost during the conflict, and analysts remain uncertain about how quickly production and shipping volumes can fully recover once the gates reopen.Fresh data from the US Department of Energy highlighted just how tight global supplies have become. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) plunged by 8.9 million barrels last week, marking the third-steepest draw on record and sinking the government's emergency stash to 340.3 million barrels, its lowest level since 1983. These massive drawdowns are part of an ongoing U.S. agreement to loan 172 million barrels from the facility in an effort to cool down soaring domestic fuel prices, right as the geopolitical landscape prepares for a major shift. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

US President Donald Trump said that Iran agreed not to ever have a nuclear weapon, the Guardian reported on Tuesday.

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Also, the story that the U.S. is paying Iran 300 million Dollars is Fake News, put out by the Dumocrats!!!,” Trump said on his platform.Earlier, US Vice President JD Vance stated that nuclear inspectors will “absolutely” be allowed to return to Iran as part of the deal with the US to end the war.Meanwhile, the Israeli military said on Monday that it intercepted “numerous rockets” launched by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group, and that not injuries were reported.Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli forces will also remain in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. Netanyahu added that though the war saved Israel from the threat of nuclear annihilation, Israel will continue to thwart threats in the region and will do what it takes to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 0.10% on the day at $79.90. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Japan's Economy Minister, Minoru Kiuchi, said on Tuesday that he will participate in today's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. Kiuchi added that he strongly hopes the central bank communicates and collaborates with govthe government sustainably and stably reach the 2% inflation target.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Japan's Economy Minister, Minoru Kiuchi, said on Tuesday that he will participate in today's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. Kiuchi added that he strongly hopes the central bank communicates and collaborates with govthe government sustainably and stably reach the 2% inflation target.Key quotes Will participate in today's BoJ meeting

No comment on market expectations of BoJ rate hike today.

Strongly hopes BoJ communicates, collaborates with government to sustainably, stably reach 2% inflation target.Market reaction At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.05% lower on the day to trade at 160.25. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.1590 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. A deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz spurred a rally in riskier assets such as the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD).

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A deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz spurred a rally in riskier assets such as the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD). Traders await the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance both virtually signed the agreement to end a US blockade of Iranian ports, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and start 60 days of nuclear negotiations. The officials said that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf signed the document on behalf of the Iranian side. Hopes of a US-Iran peace agreement could provide some support to the shared currency in the near term. Nonetheless, caution lingered as both sides offered differing accounts on key issues. Iran intends to collect certain “fees” in the critical waterway, while Trump said it would fully reopen on Friday without tolls. Trump said on Monday that if Iran failed to reach a final nuclear accord with the US, he would restart military attacks on Tehran. The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. Traders will closely monitor the press conference and take more cues about how new Fed chair Kevin Warsh will lead the US central bank into its next era. Any hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers might help limit the Greenback’s losses and create a headwind for the major pair. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends the rally after the United States (US) and Iran reached a comprehensive framework deal to end hostilities, easing inflation concerns. 

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The precious metal extends the rally after the United States (US) and Iran reached a comprehensive framework deal to end hostilities, easing inflation concerns. Bloomberg reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance signed an electronic copy of a memorandum of understanding with Iran. Trump noted that the Strait of Hormuz “is already partially opened,” and “it’ll be completely opened” on Friday. "The gold market is moving past the conflict and pricing it out. The peace deal news took down Treasury yields, the dollar, and oil, and those were the biggest inflation and cross asset risks," said Phillip Streible, chief market ‌strategist at Blue Line Futures. Bets on Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes receded after the framework deal, supporting the yellow metal, a non-yielding asset. Traders cut the chance of a US rate hike in December to 58% from nearly 70% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.The Fed is due to announce its next policy decision on Wednesday. Economists expect the US central bank to keep its benchmark rate in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% as it waits to see how the war’s energy-price shock ripples through the economy.XAU/USD daily chartGold keeps the bearish vibe in near term below the key 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, the near-term tone of XAU/USD stays bearish as price holds beneath the Bollinger middle band and well below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the broader recovery structure capped. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 43 sits below the midline, hinting at lingering downside pressure despite the recent attempt to stabilize.On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the June 9 high of $4,363. The next hurdle to watch is the Bollinger SMA midline near $4,415, with the upper Bollinger band around $4,685 and the 100-day SMA at roughly $4,762 forming a broader supply zone if a rebound extends. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at about $4,145 marks the next notable support, and a decisive break beneath this area would expose further weakness toward prior swing lows.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, at around 3:00 GMT.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Bank of Japan is expected to hike interest rates to 1% in its June meeting. Governor Kazuo Ueda will not precede the meeting due to health issues.USD/JPY retains its bullish bias despite easing demand for the US Dollar. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, at around 3:00 GMT. The BoJ is widely expected to deliver a hawkish move by hiking the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 1%, its highest level since 1995. The hike is meant not only to address mounting inflationary pressures but also the Japanese Yen’s (JPY) strength.Governor Kazuo Ueda, who was hospitalized last week, won’t attend the monetary policy meeting. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino would chair the policy meeting, while Deputy Shinichi Uchida would hold the press conference following the decision.Ahead of the announcement, the USD/JPY pair trades above the 160.00 mark, a line in the sand for Japanese authorities, as it is usually seen as an intervention level.Finally, the Middle East crisis has reached an inflection point: The United States (US) and Iran reached an agreement that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire for another 60 days, allowing talks to continue. Financial markets are optimistic ahead of the announcement, resulting in mild US Dollar (USD) weakness across the FX board.What to expect from the BoJ interest rate decision?An interest rate hike has long been priced in, meaning the rate move itself should have a limited impact on the JPY. Japanese policymakers, however, will also discuss the BoJ’s plan to reduce purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to allow long-term rates to be guided more by the market. Their decision on the matter could define the JPY’s near-term direction. Japan’s annual inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), stood at 1.4% in April this year, easing from 1.5% in March. However, wholesale inflation jumped to 6.3% You in May, a clear sign that inflationary pressures are likely to extend in time, despite a potential end to the Iran war later this week. But it is not only about higher Oil prices: the significant depreciation of the JPY also results in inflation stemming from pretty much all imported goods and raw materials. And the BoJ's mandate is clearly focused on the matter: “The Bank of Japan, as the central bank of Japan, decides and implements monetary policy with the aim of maintaining price stability,” targeting 2% annual inflation.That being said, the current CPI at 1.5% YoY may not be enough to justify a rate hike, but wholesale prices and JPY weakness are. BoJ Governor Ueda said before being hospitalized that policymakers should not look at Oil prices in isolation, noting that temporary energy shocks can become persistent and affect wages, expectations, and price-setting behavior. "If inflation expectations are already high and wages are accelerating, the risk of second-round effects is large," Ueda stated, adding that the boundary between temporary and persistent inflation is not mechanicalHow could the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision affect USD/JPY?As previously noted, market participants have already priced in a 25 bps rate hike. Any decision on future bond purchases is partially discounted. Japanese policymakers don’t tend to surprise investors and tend to act too cautiously. With that in mind, and given that the press conference will be led by Deputy Shinichi Uchida, the BoJ’s announcement is likely to have a limited impact on JPY.Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The USD/JPY pair trades around the 160.00 mark, maintaining the positive bias despite easing market concerns undermining demand for the USD. The daily chart for the pair shows a bullish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) that heads north, well above the 100- and 200-day SMAs. The same chart shows that technical indicators have lost their upward momentum but remain above their midlines, lacking directional strength. The mentioned 20-day SMA has attracted buyers and now provides near-term support at around 159.65”Bednarik adds: “Once below the aforementioned dynamic support, the pair can extend its slide towards 159.00, while additional selling pressure could see the pair aiming for 158.60, a static support level. The USD/JPY pair peaked at 160.73 in April, a multi-decade high and a critical level to watch should JPY continue to weaken. Next comes 161.00, although it seems unlikely that Japanese authorities will allow the currency to weaken that much without actually intervening in the market.” Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in. Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Next release: Tue Jun 16, 2026 03:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 1% Previous: 0.75% Source: Bank of Japan

GBP/USD opened the new week with a sharp risk-on pop toward 1.3450 as a US-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent Crude Oil tumbling and lifted risk-sensitive currencies. The entire move then unwound, leaving the pair back near 1.3400, almost exactly where it started.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD surged at the week's open on the US-Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, then gave the entire move back to close flat.Soft US Empire State and Industrial Production data gave the Dollar every reason to soften, yet it held firm as traders position into Wednesday's FOMC.UK CPI on Wednesday and the BoE on Thursday are the Pound's domestic tests, but the Fed dominates the week.GBP/USD opened the new week with a sharp risk-on pop toward 1.3450 as a US-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent Crude Oil tumbling and lifted risk-sensitive currencies. The entire move then unwound, leaving the pair back near 1.3400, almost exactly where it started. The relief was genuine but shallow, and a Dollar quietly bidding into Wednesday's Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting did the rest.A ceasefire the market only half-believedThe deal that sparked the move is, on paper, a breakthrough, but the fine print invites skepticism. It is a preliminary framework: a 60-day ceasefire extension with Iran's nuclear program pushed into later talks and a formal signing not due until Friday. Crude Oil fell close to 5%, yet the broader risk reaction was only moderate, with most of the buying already done last week.That is the problem for the Pound, which had no catalyst of its own on Monday and rode the global risk impulse higher. Once the relief was priced, the buy-the-rumor trade gave way to the sell-the-fact and Sterling drifted back to its starting point.The Dollar isn't waiting for permissionMonday's US data gave the Dollar every reason to soften, yet it barely flinched. The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index collapsed to 5.7 in June from 19.6, well short of the 14 consensus, while Industrial Production rose a thin 0.1% in May against a 0.3% call. On most days that pressures the Dollar; two days before a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, the market is not trading regional surveys.The Fed is widely expected to hold its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, but the tone should lean hawkish. May Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) beat near 172K with unemployment steady around 4.3%, and rate futures now price the next move as a hike rather than a cut: a December hike sits better than even near 57%, and by January a hold drops to roughly 35%, making a hike the base case. That gives traders reason to trim short-Dollar positions into the event, and the Pound, lacking a domestic driver, gets carried along.Coiled between the moving averagesOn the daily chart the Pound is pinned in a tightening band, with Monday's close near 1.3400 sitting right on the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the handle and the 50-period EMA capping the tape just under 1.3450. The two have converged to within roughly 40 pips, textbook compression that precedes a volatility expansion, not its direction. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) sits mid-range near 44, neutral and consistent with a holding pattern, leaving 1.3400 as the pivot the FOMC will decide.Where the week is decidedTuesday brings only US Building Permits and Housing Starts, near 1.42 and 1.43 million; second-tier housing data rarely moves a major pair before the Fed, so expect a quiet, position-squaring session.Wednesday front-loads the Pound's domestic risk. UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) lands at 06:00 GMT, with headline inflation last at 2.8% YoY and the core rate seen ticking up toward 2.7% from 2.5%. It is the final reading still carrying the war's full energy premium, even as the ceasefire now points to a softer forward path.US Retail Sales follow at 12:30 GMT, before the main event at 18:00 GMT: the Fed decision, projections and dot plot, with the press conference at 18:30 GMT. A hold is locked in, so the dots and the tone are the entire trade. Any upward drift in the projections extends the Dollar's bid and pressures GBP/USD; a softer message is the Pound's clearest route higher. The Bank of England (BoE) follows Thursday with its own hold expected.Resistance: Near-term supply sits around 1.3450, the level that capped Monday's surge and aligns with the 50 EMA. A clean break and hold above it opens the 1.3500 handle, with little in the way until 1.3550.Support: The 1.3400 handle is the immediate pivot, defended by the 200 EMA just beneath the close. A Fed-driven Dollar bid through it exposes 1.3350, then the lower edge of the recent range.Bias: Mildly bearish into Wednesday. With no UK catalyst before the CPI release and the Dollar holding the upper hand on positioning, the path of least resistance is a grind toward 1.3400. Only a dovish Fed or soft dots flips that and puts 1.3450 and 1.3500 back in play.GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35% when it announces its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, marking a pause after three consecutive rate hikes delivered earlier this year.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold the interest rate steady at 4.35% in June.RBA Governor Bullock’s words to be dissected for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.The Australian Dollar is primed for intense volatility on the RBA policy announcement.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35% when it announces its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, marking a pause after three consecutive rate hikes delivered earlier this year.The decision will be announced at 04:30 GMT, accompanied by the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference will follow at 05:30 GMT.The RBA policy announcement and Bullock’s presser could trigger a big reaction in the Australian Dollar (AUD), as markets eagerly await signals on the bank’s path forward on interest rates.RBA pauses, end of the tightening cycle?While inflation remains stubbornly elevated and continues to pressure households, a growing number of signals suggest the Australian economy may be losing momentum. Higher borrowing costs have started to weigh on consumer demand and early signs of labour market cooling are emerging.Data from the Australian Bureau ​of Statistics (ABS) showed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in the first three months of the year, compared with a forecast of 0.5% and decelerating from 0.9% in the prior quarter. Annual ​growth steadied at 2.5% in the same period, below the 2.7% expected.Meanwhile, the country’s Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.5% in April, the highest since September. The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 0.4% in April from 1.1% in March, while the annual pace also declined to 4.2% from 4.6%.The central bank, therefore, finds itself balancing inflation that remains above target and an economy that appears to be slowing down.“Markets now imply just a 22% probability of an August RBA hike, down from 80% a month ago, and just 11 bps of tightening this year as higher interest rates have started to slow economic activity,” per Reuters.The shift in sentiment accelerated after National Australia Bank (NAB) ditched its peers by suggesting the RBA's next move could eventually be a rate cut rather than another hike.Three of the four major banks, NAB, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), expect the RBA to leave the cash rate at 4.35% for the remainder of 2026.For now, policymakers are likely to maintain a cautious tone, acknowledging persistent inflation pressures while emphasizing increased uncertainty surrounding growth, employment and household spending.The main focus will be on whether the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is enough to calm the central bank’s inflation concerns and to signal a pause in the current tightening cycle."It'll be about the little clues as to whether the cycle is over or it's still alive - that's going to be really important for both the Aussie and the kiwi markets," said Imre Speizer, a strategist at Westpac.How will the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision impact AUD/USD?The AUD has rebounded firmly against the US Dollar (USD) in the countdown to the RBA event risk.The key market takeaway will therefore be any change in the RBA's forward guidance. A statement retaining a tightening bias could revive expectations for an August rate increase and support the Aussie Dollar.Conversely, any indication that the central bank is becoming more concerned about growth risks could reinforce market pricing for a prolonged pause and weigh down on the AUD.Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, highlights key technical levels for trading AUD/USD following the policy announcement.“The pair is challenging the key 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the road to recovery. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced off the oversold territory, but remains in the bearish zone, suggesting that sellers are likely to retain control.”“On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA near 0.7084, followed by the 21-day SMA around 0.7116 and the 50-day SMA close to 0.7143, levels that would need to be reclaimed to ease the current downside pressure. On the downside, the 200-day SMA at roughly 0.6844 offers the next major support, with a sustained break below that long-term average likely opening the door to a deeper retracement,” Dhwani adds. Economic Indicator RBA Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Next release: Tue Jun 16, 2026 04:30 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 4.35% Previous: 4.35% Source: Reserve Bank of Australia RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

USD/JPY is grinding into the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) June meeting above the 160.00 handle, a whisker from multi-decade highs, while the central bank meant to defend the Yen prepares to raise rates to a three-decade high without lifting the currency at all.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY heads into the Bank of Japan decision pinned near its highest levels in decades.A quarter-point hike to 1% is largely priced, leaving the guidance and the Fed to drive the pair.The BoJ acts with Governor Ueda hospitalized and unable to vote, a day before the FOMC and a fresh dot plot.USD/JPY is grinding into the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) June meeting above the 160.00 handle, a whisker from multi-decade highs, while the central bank meant to defend the Yen prepares to raise rates to a three-decade high without lifting the currency at all. A quarter-point step to 1% has been roughly 80% priced for weeks, leaving the decision nearly a non-event. What matters is the guidance, the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision 24 hours later, and whether the BoJ still has any pull over a currency the carry trade keeps selling.A hike the market has already spentThe Bank of Japan can do everything textbook policy prescribes and still watch the Yen sit on the floor. Lifting the benchmark to 1% sounds dramatic until you remember the Fed sits at 3.50% to 3.75%; even after Tuesday the rate gap stays near 275 basis points, wide enough to keep the carry trade paying. A fully priced tightening rarely rescues a currency on the day it lands; the bigger risk is that cautious, go-slow guidance simply sells the Yen on the fact.A historic decision with an empty chairThe most consequential BoJ hike in thirty years arrives with a strange asterisk: Governor Kazuo Ueda will not be in the room to vote on it. Hospitalized for a liver infection, he will submit his views in writing while the meeting proceeds without him, the first regular policy decision ever taken with the governor absent.The Fed then meets the next day under new Chair Kevin Warsh, his first decision since replacing Jerome Powell in May. Two of the planet's most important central banks set policy inside 48 hours, neither with its usual hand on the wheel.The line in the sand has movedTraders are no longer truly afraid of the 160.00 handle, the uncomfortable truth beneath this grind. Japanese authorities intervened around this level in 2024 and again in 2026, yet the pair climbed back above it each time. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) defends order rather than a number, reacting to the speed of a move more than its level, which is why a slow grind draws far less response than a violent spike.Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has spent weeks escalating warnings and even floating joint intervention with Washington; the Yen drifts lower regardless. Some desks now read official tolerance as closer to 162.00 than 160.00, which leaves the market grinding toward that zone to see who blinks first.Overbought and still climbingThe chart does nothing to argue with the carry story. On the daily timeframe the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI) sits near the top of its range above 87, while the hourly reading hovers around 80, the kind of stretched momentum that usually begs for a pullback. Price keeps grinding higher instead, the signature of a flow-driven, one-way market.Structurally the uptrend is intact, with price holding well above a rising 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 159.00 and recent dips bought close to 159.50.The 48-hour gauntletThis is a week where the calendar, not the chart, sets the risk. Tuesday brings the BoJ rate decision, statement, and scheduled press conference, followed late in the session by Japan's May trade balance and export figures. Wednesday then delivers the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, the updated dot plot, and Warsh's first press conference, any of which can reprice the Dollar leg in seconds.Thursday closes the loop with Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, where core readings have run near 1.4% to 1.9% YoY; another firm print would validate the BoJ's tightening path. With two rate decisions and a major inflation print in three days, position sizing matters more than any chart level.How to play itResistance: The 160.50 area caps the recent range and the cycle highs; a clean break opens room toward the 161.00 handle, with 162.00 the zone where intervention odds climb sharply.Support: The 160.00 handle is the first floor bulls have defended again and again; below it, 159.50 and then the 50-period EMA near 159.00 mark where the grind stalls.Bias: Higher while 160.00 holds. The rate gap, the trend, and stretched but rising momentum all point the same way; a priced hike does little to change that. The picture only flips on a hawkish surprise to the BoJ's path, a dovish Warsh pivot, or genuine intervention, each of which would move fast.USD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The Australian Dollar registered gains of over 0.37% on Monday as the US and Iran agreed on a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) aimed at ending the conflict and setting the stage for talks about Tehran’s nuclear program.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US-Iran MOU promises Hormuz reopening and nuclear-program talks.Weaker Dollar supports AUD/USD before Warsh’s first Fed decision.RBA expected to hold, though inflation risks keep tone hawkish.The Australian Dollar registered gains of over 0.37% on Monday as the US and Iran agreed on a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) aimed at ending the conflict and setting the stage for talks about Tehran’s nuclear program. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trade at 0.7072 after bouncing off daily lows of 0.7041.AUD/USD gains as Middle East breakthrough boosts risk appetiteMarket sentiment improved amid the potential resolution of the Middle East conflict, even though the details of the agreement remain unknown. Nevertheless, what both parties have leaked is that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened, the US Navy blockade lifted, that Iran would dilute enriched uranium inside its territory and that talks about the nuclear program will begin for 60 days.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, is down 0.15% at 99.66, as Oil prices tumbled amid free navigation in the Persian Gulf, freeing over a fifth of the world's oil production.Hence, eyes turn to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, in which the US central bank, led by the new Chairman Kevin Warsh, is expected to hold rates unchanged. Fed officials will also update their Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), though investors would be keen to hear Warsh's communication tone.In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep the Cash Rate at 4.85%, after hiking thrice this year, spurred by the energy shock triggered by the Middle East conflict.In the last meeting, RBA Governor Bullock commented that if second-round effects changed inflation expectations, higher rates would be needed. Nevertheless, she acknowledged that policy is a “bit” restrictive and that the RBA has room to “wait-and-see.”Analysts at Morgan Stanley stated, “We expect the RBA Board will leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35% at its 16 June meeting, following three consecutive hikes. The statement is still likely to lean hawkish as inflation pressures are broadening and the Board will remain alert to de-anchoring risk.”Ahead, Australia’s economic docket will feature the RBA’s meeting. In the US, traders await Retail Sales, the US central bank's monetary policy decision, and jobless claims data.AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookAUD/USD daily chartIn the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7072, maintaining a mildly bearish near-term tone as it holds below the clustered simple moving averages around 0.7143. The broader structure still leans constructive thanks to a series of rising support trend lines from the 0.68–0.69 area, but the latest pullback and a subdued Relative Strength Index (RSI) around the mid‑40s suggest fading upside momentum while the pair remains capped by overhead averages and trend resistance.On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the simple moving average triple cluster near 0.7143, with the broader downward trend-line structure acting as an additional cap should the pair attempt a recovery. On the downside, buyers are expected to emerge along the sequence of ascending trend-line supports projecting from the 0.68–0.69 region, with any sustained break beneath these rising floors likely opening a deeper retracement within the broader uptrend.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

South Korea Export Price Growth (YoY) rose from previous 40.8% to 46.9% in May

South Korea Import Price Growth (YoY): 24.8% (May) vs 20.2%

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