ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex
11:04 Dow Jones futures fall as traders brace for Fed rate decision
Dow Jones futures fall by 0.56% to trade near 52,150 during European hours on Tuesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures decline by 0.42% to trade around 7,590, while Nasdaq 100 futures drop by 0.37% to trade near 29,050.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US stock futures decline as markets are pricing in over a 92% chance of a rate hike following elevated energy costs.AI safety concerns and CEO calls for slower development spurred a sharp selloff in semiconductor stocks.Wall Street looks to extend losses after all major US stock benchmark indexes closed lower on Monday.Dow Jones futures fall by 0.56% to trade near 52,150 during European hours on Tuesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures decline by 0.42% to trade around 7,590, while Nasdaq 100 futures drop by 0.37% to trade near 29,050.US stock futures move lower as markets increasingly anticipate an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this week. Escalating energy costs have heightened broader inflation fears, putting mounting pressure on central bankers to implement tighter monetary policy. Reflecting this shift in sentiment, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that money markets are now pricing in over a 92% probability of a rate increase, marking a sharp jump from around 59% just a week earlier.Wall Street faced heavy downward pressure driven by a broad selloff in semiconductor equities, triggered by expanding safety and regulatory concerns surrounding rapid artificial intelligence development. Major indexes all closed in negative territory on Monday’s US regular session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.56%, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.48% and 0.29%, respectively.Strategists at Danske Bank note that “equities closed lower yesterday after a pronounced roller coaster session,” with “several major indices recording intraday moves of around 1.5%.” They highlight that the session’s sharp swings underscored heightened volatility across the equity complex, as markets struggled to find a clear direction into the close.The slide in tech shares came as major industry leaders publicly voiced caution regarding the velocity of artificial intelligence progress. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei advocated for a more measured pace of development to manage the escalating risks associated with increasingly powerful models. This prudent stance gained significant backing across the sector, with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and xAI CEO Elon Musk echoing similar concerns regarding AI safety. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
11:03 Indian Rupee: RBI seen starting mini hiking cycle - Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to respond to India’s broadening inflation pressures with a new mini rate-hike cycle. Kundu projects a 25bp hike in October, followed by two similar moves in December and February.
Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to respond to India’s broadening inflation pressures with a new mini rate-hike cycle. Kundu projects a 25bp hike in October, followed by two similar moves in December and February. While not its base case, Kundu also flags a non-negligible risk that the RBI could opt for a larger 50bp increase.Rate hikes projected into early 2027"The pickup in services inflation is particularly important from a monetary policy perspective.""With headline inflation above the median target for a third consecutive month and underlying inflation beginning to firm, the room to look through food-led price pressures is narrowing.""We continue to believe that the RBI will initiate a mini rate-hike cycle, announcing a 25bp hike at its October meeting, followed by two similar increases at its December and February meetings.""Although this is not our baseline scenario, we also do not rule out a 50bp hike."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
11:01 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Resistance at 155.20 likely to test bulls
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is showing a moderately softer tone against the US Dollar (USD) this week, with all eyes on the monetary policy decisions bu¡y the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), due later this week.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/JPY extends its recovery from lows below 153.00 last week to the 155.00 area.The US Dollar appreciates across the board as investors ramp up Fed tightening bets.US Dollar bulls are likely to meet important resistance around 155.20.The Japanese Yen (JPY) is showing a moderately softer tone against the US Dollar (USD) this week, with all eyes on the monetary policy decisions bu¡y the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), due later this week. The USD/JPY pair has picked up to levels near 155.00 but remains capped below a previous resistance area, at 155.20, which is likely to pose a significant challenge for US Dollar bulls.Markets are pricing a 92% chance that the Fed will h¡ike interest rates on Wednesday, according to the CME’s Fed Watch Tool. An impressive employment report in August and the hot inflation figures seen last week have boosted hopes that the central bank will tighten its monetary policy for the first time in three years this week, despite pressures to the contrary from US President Donald Trump.In Japan, the BoJ is also expected to hike rates by 25 basis points on Friday and hint at a steeper tightening pace ahead. Analysts at DBS Group Research note that pressure from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has "helped recast ‘Takaichinomics’ away from being Abenomics 2.0, from reflation towards deregulation, investment, and shareholder-friendly structural reform,” further underpinning the narrative of a more durable shift toward BoJ normalization.In this context, DBS experts note that “even former BoJ-tightening sceptics – including Takuji Aida, an economic adviser to Takaichi and a former vocal opponent of BOJ tightening – are now acknowledging the case for higher rates, strengthening expectations for a hawkish hike on September 18.”Technical Analysis: Price action remains below the H&S's necklineUSD/JPY trades at 154.87, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the neckline of a bearish Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern at 155.20. Momentum indicators on the daily chart have turned higher but remain within bearish territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37.70, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is below zero, reinforcing the idea that rallies are still likely to face selling pressure.The market is showing a mild correction from oversold levels that might lead to a confirmation of the H&S pattern with a failure at the mentioned 155.20. If that level is broken. The next targets are the September 4 high, near 156.75, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), at 158.40.A rejection at 155.20 on the contrary, brings the January and February lows, at the 152.20 area, back into focus. The H&S's measured target lies near the October 2025 low in the 146.60 area.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.09% 0.18% 0.37% 0.01% 0.24% 0.30% 0.02% EUR -0.09% 0.09% 0.27% -0.07% 0.14% 0.20% -0.07% GBP -0.18% -0.09% 0.19% -0.18% 0.05% 0.09% -0.16% JPY -0.37% -0.27% -0.19% -0.34% -0.12% -0.08% -0.34% CAD -0.01% 0.07% 0.18% 0.34% 0.22% 0.27% 0.00% AUD -0.24% -0.14% -0.05% 0.12% -0.22% 0.06% -0.23% NZD -0.30% -0.20% -0.09% 0.08% -0.27% -0.06% -0.26% CHF -0.02% 0.07% 0.16% 0.34% -0.00% 0.23% 0.26% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.09% 0.18% 0.37% 0.01% 0.24% 0.30% 0.02% EUR -0.09% 0.09% 0.27% -0.07% 0.14% 0.20% -0.07% GBP -0.18% -0.09% 0.19% -0.18% 0.05% 0.09% -0.16% JPY -0.37% -0.27% -0.19% -0.34% -0.12% -0.08% -0.34% CAD -0.01% 0.07% 0.18% 0.34% 0.22% 0.27% 0.00% AUD -0.24% -0.14% -0.05% 0.12% -0.22% 0.06% -0.23% NZD -0.30% -0.20% -0.09% 0.08% -0.27% -0.06% -0.26% CHF -0.02% 0.07% 0.16% 0.34% -0.00% 0.23% 0.26% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
10:50 US Dollar: Rising yields support risk-off tone – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar (USD) has strengthened ahead of the FOMC meeting as Fed tightening expectations are repriced higher. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered to levels seen before the August Treasury buyback announcement, with US yields rising sharply.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar (USD) has strengthened ahead of the FOMC meeting as Fed tightening expectations are repriced higher. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered to levels seen before the August Treasury buyback announcement, with US yields rising sharply. MUFG highlights modest FX spillovers so far, but warns high beta and emerging market currencies face greater downside risks if bond yields and energy prices keep climbing.Stronger Dollar tracks higher US yields"The US dollar has continued to trade at modestly stronger levels overnight ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.""The stronger US dollar has been encouraged by the hawkish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations.""The US rate market now expects the Fed to deliver almost 100bps of hikes in the year ahead fully reversing last year’s rate cuts that totalled 75bps.""Measures of volatility in both the equity and FX markets have started to pick up but are still at low levels. It highlights that spillovers from rising bond yields into the FX market have been modest so far."“Similar price action has also been evident amongst emerging market currencies where heat commodity and high-yielding currencies have underperformed such as the Chilean peso, South African rand, Hungarian forint and Mexican peso. Downside risks for those currencies would intensify if rising bond yields and energy prices triggered a deeper correction lower for risk assets heading into year end.”(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
10:49 Euro declines against Canadian Dollar despite ECB rate hike hopes
EUR/CAD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.6040 during European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross depreciates as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains support from rising crude oil prices.
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The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
10:45 5.03%: US 10-year Treasury Yields hit fresh highs in over 19 years
United States (US) 10-year Treasury Yields have hit a fresh high of 5.03%, the level never seen in a little over 19 years. Higher yields on US bonds indicate rising interest obligations for the government, which generally leads to significant bond-buying operations by the administration.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US 10-year Treasury Yields hit a fresh 19-year high at 5.03% amid higher Oil prices, hawkish Fed bets.The Fed is almost certain to hike interest rates on Wednesday.Market experts see the Fed delivering more interest rate hikes in the near term.United States (US) 10-year Treasury Yields have hit a fresh high of 5.03%, the level never seen in a little over 19 years. Higher yields on US bonds indicate rising interest obligations for the government, which generally leads to significant bond-buying operations by the administration. This scenario also diminishes the appeal of riskier assets.Hot inflation expectations due to elevated oil prices, and fresh fears of a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed), are fuelling borrowing costs for the US government.Oil prices have remained significantly higher in the past months since the onset of the Middle East war, which has de-anchored global inflation expectations. The WTI Oil trades close to $100 levels as concerns regarding prolonged energy supply disruption remain elevated.Surging inflationary pressures worldwide have forced central banks to tighten their monetary conditions. This month, the European Central Bank (ECB) has already raised its policy rates by 25 basis points (bps).The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also expected to break its five-meetings hold and hike interest rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday. Market experts have also started pricing in more rate hikes by the central bank.Fed seen hiking as BNY flags limits to further tighteningStrategists at BNY expect the FOMC to “enact a 25bp rate hike this Wednesday, in line with implied market probabilities, which currently price over a 90% likelihood of such action.”BNY adds that “while we expect a hike this week, and probably one more this year, we think the path to even higher policy rates is strewn with potential impediments to significantly tighter policy.” In their view, “the nearly 100bp of hikes (equivalent to four hikes of the standard 25bp increment) currently priced in will be realized,” but they caution that, although they are “not ready to see shorter-maturity yields fall any time soon,” these yields “may ultimately prove to be ahead of themselves.” Economic Indicator Fed Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates). Read more. Next release: Wed Sep 16, 2026 18:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 4% Previous: 3.75% Source: Federal Reserve
10:37 Euro: 1.150 target in focus against US Dollar – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole says EUR/USD is trading close to its short-term fair value, while expectations for improving German ZEW data and the lingering impact of last week’s hawkish ECB hike offer some support to the Euro.
ING’s Francesco Pesole says EUR/USD is trading close to its short-term fair value, while expectations for improving German ZEW data and the lingering impact of last week’s hawkish ECB hike offer some support to the Euro. However, he warns that a risk-off reaction to a hawkish Fed hike could quickly push EUR/USD towards ING’s 1.150 short-term target, given the pair’s high sensitivity to global equities and short-term rates.Fed risk to Euro resilience"This morning’s ZEW in Germany is expected to keep improving. Consensus is looking at a jump from 34 to 40 in the expectations gauge and from -61 to -52 in the current situation one. That’s effectively the only data release with any market-impact potential this week – unless final August CPI prints show large revisions.""Anyway, the echo of last week’s hawkish ECB hike remains a more relevant driver for any euro resilience at this stage.""Our models suggest EUR/USD is close to its short-term fair value model, slightly leaning towards undervaluation. That said, global equities and short-term rates have the highest betas on EUR/USD at the moment: a risk-off, hawkish hike by the Fed tomorrow could easily take the pair to our 1.150 short-term target."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
10:27 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: DXY eyes 99.80 confluence hurdle as focus remains on Fed
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, maintains a positive bias for the fourth straight day on Tuesday and climbs back closer to a nearly two-week high, which it touched the previous day.
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The index trades around the 99.65 region during the early European session, up over 0.15% for the day, as the focus remains firmly on a two-day FOMC policy meeting, starting later today.Heading into the key central bank event, investors have been pricing in a greater chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates on Wednesday. Apart from this, oil-driven inflation fears remain supportive of elevated US bond yields and continue to act as a tailwind for the DXY. Furthermore, persistent geopolitical uncertainties amid intensifying US-Iran tensions and clashes in the Strait of Hormuz underpin the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).US yields climb as Danske Bank turns more hawkish on Fed pathAnalysts at Danske Bank report that "US yields have continued to push higher, with the 10Y trading above the 5% threshold," as markets reassess the policy outlook. In this context, the bank notes that "in the US, we revised our Fed call such that we now expect a hike of 25bp on Wednesday meeting." Danske Bank adds that it "maintain[s] our forecast for 25bp increases at both the December and March meetings, taking the Fed Funds rate to 4.25-4.50% towards the end of 2027 (prior: 4.00-4.25%)," underscoring a more hawkish trajectory than previously anticipated.From a technical perspective, the DXY is approaching the 99.80 confluence – comprising the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August downswing and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Any further move up could still face some selling near this zone, which, if cleared decisively, will set the stage for additional near-term gains. Meanwhile, momentum indicators on the daily chart back the case for an eventual breakout through the said barrier.The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned modestly positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 54 hints at improving momentum. Hence, the subsequent move up could lift the DXY further to the 50.0% level near 100.14 and the 61.8% retracement at 100.50, ahead of a stronger barrier at 101.02 and 101.68. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement near 99.33, with a deeper floor around 98.60.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)DXY daily chart US Dollar Price Last 7 Days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.76% 0.46% 0.31% 0.63% 1.33% 2.04% 0.96% EUR -0.76% -0.26% -0.45% -0.11% 0.62% 1.27% 0.22% GBP -0.46% 0.26% -0.21% 0.16% 0.87% 1.62% 0.48% JPY -0.31% 0.45% 0.21% 0.35% 1.04% 1.66% 0.68% CAD -0.63% 0.11% -0.16% -0.35% 0.71% 1.28% 0.33% AUD -1.33% -0.62% -0.87% -1.04% -0.71% 0.71% -0.38% NZD -2.04% -1.27% -1.62% -1.66% -1.28% -0.71% -1.12% CHF -0.96% -0.22% -0.48% -0.68% -0.33% 0.38% 1.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
10:25 Oil: Supply risks and structural tightness – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton highlights rising Oil market stress as geopolitical risks escalate. He notes higher crude prices, widening Brent spreads and concerns over the end of US Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases.
Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton highlights rising Oil market stress as geopolitical risks escalate. He notes higher crude prices, widening Brent spreads and concerns over the end of US Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases. Picton also flags potential US export restrictions and ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring persistent tightness in physical Oil markets.Geopolitics tighten physical oil markets"While the new economy of AI preoccupied markets for most of yesterday, the much-neglected old economy continued to serve up inconvenient reminders of the importance of real production to 21st century life. Entirely predictable attacks on the Saudi East-West pipeline, reports that damage to the pipeline could take months to repair, and the sense that even if it is repaired it could easily be attacked again ensured that oil markets remained bid. Reports from Iran’s Fars news agency that an oil tanker exploded after colliding with a mine in Omani waters did the same.""The spread between dated brent and the front future has blown out to the highest levels since mid April, suggesting further tightness in physical markets as refiners scramble to secure feedstock.""That dynamic won’t be helped by news that the US is approaching the end of its program to release supply from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Reserves are sitting at their lowest levels since the 1980s when it was first being filled and there has been an ongoing conversation within oil circles that stock levels may be approaching minimum levels beyond which the structural integrity of the salt caverns where it is stored are threatened.""The rundown in US stocks and soaring gasoline prices has invigorated speculation that the administration could seek to impose export bans on certain oil products ahead of the midterm elections in November – a prospect that Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum hosed down by saying that it wouldn’t help to lower prices."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
10:16 Euro trims some losses as British Pound falls following UK employment data
The Euro (EUR) posts minor gains on Tuesday as the British Pound (GBP) falls after mixed UK employment data.
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The Euro trades in the 0.8560 area at the time of writing, but remains close to the two-week lows, at 0.8552, hit early in the day, following a nearly 0.5% decline in the previous two trading days.Data released by the UK National Statistics Office on Tuesday revealed that the ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.9% in the three months to July, against expectations of an uptick to 5%. Jobless claimants, on the other hand, have increased by 27.8K, more than three times the 8,3K increase expected and following a 11.8K drop in the previous month.All eyes are on the BoE monetary policy decisionsThe UK calendar is busy this week, with August inflation data on Wednesday, and the highlight of the week, the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision, on Thursday.The BoE is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, following Governor Bailley’s comments pushing back against the theory that interest rate hikes are “inevitable” at the UK Parliament last week. The bank’s committee, however, is highly likely to show a split vote, and investors will look at the number of dissenters to assess the chances of upcoming rate hikes.Earlier on Tuesday, a report by The Telegraph newspaper revealed that the BoE plans to overhaul its bond-selling program and stop selling 20- and 30-year yields, which are boosting the UK’s borrowing costs amid the global bond market turmoil.In the Eurozone. data released on Tuesday shows that the French Consumer Price Index (CPI) moderated in August, while Spain’s consumer inflation accelerated at its fastest year-over-year pace in the last three years. Later in the day, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and July’s Eurozone Trade Balance data will complete the calendar. Economic Indicator ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the UK Office for National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market. As a result, a rise leads to a weakening of the UK economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Tue Sep 15, 2026 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 4.9% Consensus: 5% Previous: 4.9% Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Unemployment Rate is the broadest indicator of Britain’s labor market. The figure is highlighted by the broad media, beyond the financial sector, giving the publication a more significant impact despite its late publication. It is released around six weeks after the month ends. While the Bank of England is tasked with maintaining price stability, there is a substantial inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation. A higher than expected figure tends to be GBP-bearish. Economic Indicator Claimant Count Rate The Claimant Count Rate released by the UK Office for National Statistics is a monthly measure of the number of benefit claimants as a percentage of the working population excluding homemakers and those on training schemes. It indicates the health of the UK labor market. If the rate rises, it indicates a greater share of the populace is claiming benefits which suggests a lack of expansion within the UK labor market. A fall in the rate can indicate economic expansion and potential inflationary pressures. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Tue Sep 15, 2026 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 4.4% Consensus: - Previous: 4.3% Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The change in the number of those claiming jobless benefits is an early gauge of the UK’s labor market. The figures are released for the previous month, contrary to the Unemployment Rate, which is for the prior one. This release is scheduled around the middle of the month. An increase in applications is a sign of a worsening economic situation and implies looser monetary policy, while a decrease indicates improving conditions. A higher-than-expected outcome tends to be GBP-bearish.
10:11 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains under pressure near $63 ahead of Fed’s policy decision
Silver price (XAG/USD) is marginally lower to near $63.14 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal remains under pressure as investors shift their focus to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.
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The white metal remains under pressure as investors shift their focus to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 92% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00%. This will be the first monetary policy adjustment by the Fed this year after maintaining the status-quo in the previous five policy meetings.Theoretically, higher interest rates by the Fed boost yields on interest-bearing assets, which diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.Hawkish Fed expectations have prompted US Treasury Yields significantly. 10-year US Treasury Yields have posted a fresh multi-year high near 5.03%.In the policy meeting, investors would pay more attention to commentary on inflation and economic outlook to assess Fed’s monetary policy path, knowing from Chairman Kevin Warsh’s past that he won’t deliver so-called forward guidance.Fed seen hiking in September but stopping after one moveEconomists at ING explain that they have "changed our view to a 25bp Federal Reserve rate hike in September in the wake of Chair Kevin Warsh’s address at the Jackson Hole symposium," adding that "the data since then has justified that decision." While they acknowledge that "ordinarily the assumption is that if the Fed hikes, they don’t just go once," and that "financial markets are now pricing two and a half further rate hikes after the all-but-assured 16 September move," the ING team argues that "this time around we think that one and done might be the case," with their projections for jobs and inflation suggesting "no need for a series of hikes."Silver Technical AnalysisIn the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $63.09. The pair holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.12, keeping the near-term bias tilted lower as recent gains have been rejected beneath this dynamic resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.4 hovers just under the neutral band, suggesting subdued bullish momentum and leaving the metal vulnerable while it fails to reclaim the short-term EMA cap.On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $65.12, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current downside pressure and open the way toward higher levels. Looking down, the August 19 low at $62.19 seems key support level.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
10:10 Gold: Fed risk keeps bullion vulnerable – ING
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say Gold has slipped as higher Oil prices stoke inflation concerns and reinforce expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate hike, lifting Treasury yields and the US Dollar.
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say Gold has slipped as higher Oil prices stoke inflation concerns and reinforce expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate hike, lifting Treasury yields and the US Dollar. They note that while much hawkish risk is priced, Gold could stay vulnerable if policymakers signal higher-for-longer rates, though geopolitical and energy-related risks still underpin demand.Higher-for-longer risk weighs on bullion"Gold traded lower as a sharp rise in oil fuelled inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver its first rate hike since 2023 this week.""Higher Treasury yields and a firmer US dollar added to the pressure, with investors reducing exposure ahead of Wednesday's decision.""Much of the hawkish Fed risk appears to be priced in. However, gold could remain vulnerable if policymakers signal rates will stay higher for longer.""Persistent geopolitical risks and concerns over the economic impact of elevated energy prices should continue to provide underlying support."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
09:52 British Pound: Fragile labour market clouds BoE hikes - Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that rising Oil prices have sharply lifted UK rate expectations, with markets now discounting four Bank of England hikes by mid-2027 versus just over one in June.
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that rising Oil prices have sharply lifted UK rate expectations, with markets now discounting four Bank of England hikes by mid-2027 versus just over one in June. However, he highlights the UK’s weak labour market and growth risks from upcoming budget talks, questioning whether such tightening is realistic and seeing this as a negative backdrop for the Pound.UK tightening doubts weigh on Pound"The oil price risen significantly again in recent weeks, with the 110 USD per barrel mark being targeted following the Houthis’ advance in Yemen. The close link between the oil price and interest rate expectations in the current environment was highlighted in our numerous analyses from the spring, and these analyses have consequently regained significance.""The Bank of England is no exception. Here, too, interest rate expectations have shifted significantly towards rate rises. While at the end of June the market had priced in just over one rate hike by the middle of next year, the figure now stands at four.""Policymakers are nevertheless unlikely to find a shift in interest rate policy an easy decision. This is because, even though the growth figures are very robust, the labour market remains in a serious crisis.""The Bank of England must therefore consider very carefully whether to raise interest rates in such an environment. In the coming weeks, discussions about the forthcoming budget are also likely to gather pace.""We therefore remain sceptical as to whether interest rate rises on the scale currently anticipated by the market are realistic. Those banking on interest rate rises might be better off, unusually, turning their attention to other markets - this is not a particularly good sign for the pound."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
09:51 Forex Today: US Dollar strengthens on hotter US inflation, rising Fed hike expectations
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 15:
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Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 15:The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength to a near two-week high around 99.60 in early European trading on Tuesday as surging oil prices pushed Treasury yields to fresh peaks since 2007. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated in August. Hotter CPI data followed strong readings in several components of the Producer Price Index (PPI) released on Thursday, reinforcing US rate hike expectations.Traders are pricing in a more than 92% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) in its September meeting on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.17% 0.21% 0.33% 0.05% 0.27% 0.36% 0.04% EUR -0.17% 0.05% 0.14% -0.12% 0.10% 0.18% -0.13% GBP -0.21% -0.05% 0.08% -0.18% 0.05% 0.12% -0.18% JPY -0.33% -0.14% -0.08% -0.27% -0.05% 0.02% -0.28% CAD -0.05% 0.12% 0.18% 0.27% 0.22% 0.30% -0.01% AUD -0.27% -0.10% -0.05% 0.05% -0.22% 0.08% -0.24% NZD -0.36% -0.18% -0.12% -0.02% -0.30% -0.08% -0.30% CHF -0.04% 0.13% 0.18% 0.28% 0.01% 0.24% 0.30% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, rose more than 1% on Tuesday as concerns over global supplies intensified after attacks disrupted Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and planned talks between Gulf Arab states and Iran were postponed.Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Monday that Tehran’s demands for negotiation with the United States (US) are the same as our previous demands. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said the US is open to engaging with Iran after previously repeatedly insisting that he did not want to negotiate with the Islamic Republic. On the Asia front, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday showed that China’s Retail Sales rose 0.4% YoY in August, compared to a 0.6% growth in July. This figure came in weaker than the 0.8% expected. Industrial Production climbed 5.2% YoY in August, versus 4.5% prior, above the market consensus of 4.8%. Fed uncertainty grows as Warsh shifts focus away from forward guidanceAnalysts at Commerzbank highlight that “there is currently a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the future of the Fed's monetary policy,” noting a sharp divergence between market pricing and economist expectations. While “market participants anticipate interest rate hikes,” they point out that “economists surveyed tend to expect rate cuts in the coming year,” underscoring the lack of consensus on the policy path.At the same time, Commerzbank flags a structural shift in the communication framework under the new Fed chair. They note that Kevin Warsh “has rejected the idea of explicit forward guidance,” and that their “analysis of meetings over the past 30 years shows that surprises in forward guidance primarily drove the US dollar.” In their view, “if Warsh weakens this channel, data releases are likely to become more important,” and the “frequent USD performance changes seen between the statement and the press conference under former Fed Chair Jay Powell are likely to become less common.”Lagarde flags persistent inflation and longer shock, modestly hawkish toneThe FXS Speechtracker score of 6.4 versus President Lagarde’s 6.2 average signals a slightly more hawkish tilt, driven by emphasis on Euro area inflation at 3.3% and the assertion that the current shock is longer-lasting. Highlighting volatile energy markets due to Middle East conflict and stressing that the ECB must act for the entire Euro area, not individual countries, reinforces a cautious stance against premature easing.Comments on the rise in long-term rates being linked to public finances and funding needs for technologies like artificial intelligence underscore structural pressures that can keep Euro yields elevated. Calls to simplify administrative regulations at both European and French levels point to a pro-growth supply-side agenda, but the overarching focus on above-target inflation and persistence of the shock keeps the balance of risks skewed toward a hawkish interpretation for the Euro.EUR/USD loses ground below 1.1550 in the European morning. The major pair remains under selling pressure even as a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers warned of upside inflation risks, which have fuelled expectations of one more interest rate hike this year. Last week, the ECB raised its key policy rates by 25 bps, as expected, and warned that more hikes could follow.GBP/USD weakens to around 1.3470, the lowest since August 7. The Bank of England (BoE) is set to keep interest rates steady on Thursday despite surging oil prices. Financial markets are pricing in a 30% chance of a quarter-point rate hike on Thursday, according to LSEG data on Monday, up from less than 10% at the start of last week, and almost fully pricing in a November move.USD/JPY rebounds to near 154.85 in the European morning on Tuesday. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise its policy interest rate to 1.25%, the highest level in about 31 years, at its September policy-setting meeting on Friday.Gold declines below $4,300 on Tuesday. The precious metal remains on the defensive amid hotter US inflation and elevated energy prices, which have caused markets to significantly increase their expectations for tighter Fed monetary policy. Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%.
If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
09:39 Equities: AI slowdown fears hit chip stocks – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid reports that US equities weakened as AI slowdown headlines triggered a sharp selloff in semiconductor names, dragging the broader S&P 500 lower.
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid reports that US equities weakened as AI slowdown headlines triggered a sharp selloff in semiconductor names, dragging the broader S&P 500 lower. The Philly Semiconductor Index suffered its worst day since July, while political commentary from President Trump briefly supported sentiment before stocks closed near session lows, underscoring fragile risk appetite in September.Chip-led weakness weighs on equities"So it was another session where September lived up to its reputation as the worst month of the year for asset performance, with bonds and equities continuing to struggle.""As all that was going on, there was a big selloff in chip stocks yesterday after the weekend calls for some kind of AI slowdown. So the Philly semiconductor index (-5.86%) had its worst daily performance since July.""President Trump again pushed back against the prospect of an AI slowdown, as he had initially on Sunday, saying yesterday that the US already had “tremendous CRIMINAL and REGULATORY power over these companies!” And then in a separate post, he said that “the United States is leading, by a lot, every other country. Don’t kill the Golden Goose!” While this helped chip stocks recover a bit, they were back near the day’s lows by the close.""That slump helped to drag US equities down more broadly, with the S&P 500 (-0.48%) seeing a decent fall, despite a narrow majority of companies in the index rising on the day. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.49%) registered a similar loss.""Markets are lower again in Asia, but losses are relatively contained. As I check my screens, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.89%), the KOSPI (-0.71%), the Hang Seng (-0.23%) and the Nikkei (-0.16%) are all in negative territory with mainland Chinese stocks just on the negative side. US equity futures are down a couple of tenths of a percent with European futures flat."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
09:30 Japanese Yen: Higher Q4 range projected – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered’s Chong Hoon Park and Nicholas Chia expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to deliver a 25bps rate hike in September but maintain a gradual normalisation path.
Standard Chartered’s Chong Hoon Park and Nicholas Chia expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to deliver a 25bps rate hike in September but maintain a gradual normalisation path. They argue that USD/JPY is unlikely to fall on BoJ tightening alone and project the pair returning to the upper half of the 155-160 range in Q4, as recent JPY positives appear fully priced.BoJ hike seen yet Yen upside limited"We expect the BoJ to raise the policy rate by 25bps to 1.25% at its 17-18 September meeting, while avoiding an overly hawkish message.""We therefore view a September move as a pre-emptive hike, followed by a more patient phase of policy normalisation.""We have maintained that outsized rate hikes by the BoJ or swift repatriation by the GPIF are unlikely.""In other words, we think the JPY’s positives are already priced in, and therefore see a low bar for the market to be surprised negatively on either front.""We see USD/JPY returning higher to the upper half of the 155-160 range in Q4."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
09:28 British Pound pushes against five-week lows following mixed UK employment data
The British Pound (GBP) extends losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the GBP/USD pair hovering a few pips above five-week lows near 1.3465 at the London session opening times.
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Mixed UK employment figures have failed to support the Pound, while the adverse monetary policy divergence between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps weighing on the pair with key monetary policy decisions ahead.UK employment data released on Tuesday showed that the ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.9% in the three months to July, instead of picking up to 5% as the market had anticipated. Jobless claimants, however, increased by 27.8K, more than three times the 8.3K increase expected, and following a 11.8K drop in the previous month.The main focus this week is the outcome of the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting, ending on Thursday. The BoE is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged amid a split committee, unless UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figures, due on Wednesday, show a much larger-than-expected jump in inflation.BoE Governor Bailey will not face the press after the release, and investors will be looking at the policy statement and the number of hawkish dissenters to assess the chances of an interest rate hike before the year-end. Beyond that, a report by The Telegraph newspaper revealed earlier on Tuesday that the cUK central bank plans to overhaul its bond-selling program and stop selling 20- and 30-year yields, to avoid putting further pressure on the UK’s borrowing costs amid the global bond market turmoil.US Retail Sales and The Fed in focusIn the US, the main event on Tuesday will be the release of August retail Sales data, which is expected to have increased 0.9% following a 0.6% decline in the previous month.These figures, however, are unlikely to have a significant impact on the US Dollar, as investors will remain focused on the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting, which ends on Tuesday, and, according to market expectations, will deliver the first interest rate hike of the last three years.Chairman Kevin Warsh does not like to provide forward guidance, but Commerzbank strategists highlight that Fed expectations have shifted meaningfully. “The Fed funds futures are pricing in a total hike of 51bp by year-end, implying two rate hikes across the remaining three FOMC meetings this year,” say the experts, who also note that this policy repricing has contributed to the US dollar’s recovery as markets adjust to a more extended tightening profile. Economic Indicator ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the UK Office for National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market. As a result, a rise leads to a weakening of the UK economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Tue Sep 15, 2026 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 4.9% Consensus: 5% Previous: 4.9% Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Unemployment Rate is the broadest indicator of Britain’s labor market. The figure is highlighted by the broad media, beyond the financial sector, giving the publication a more significant impact despite its late publication. It is released around six weeks after the month ends. While the Bank of England is tasked with maintaining price stability, there is a substantial inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation. A higher than expected figure tends to be GBP-bearish. Economic Indicator Claimant Count Change The Claimant Count Change released by the UK Office for National Statistics presents the change in the number of unemployed people in the UK claiming benefits. There is a tendency for the metric to influence GBP volatility. Usually, a rise in the indicator has negative implications for consumer spending and economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as bearish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bullish. Read more. Last release: Tue Sep 15, 2026 06:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 27.8K Consensus: 8.3K Previous: -11K Source: Office for National Statistics Why it matters to traders? The change in the number of those claiming jobless benefits is an early gauge of the UK’s labor market. The figures are released for the previous month, contrary to the Unemployment Rate, which is for the prior one. This release is scheduled around the middle of the month. An increase in applications is a sign of a worsening economic situation and implies looser monetary policy, while a decrease indicates improving conditions. A higher-than-expected outcome tends to be GBP-bearish.
09:27 Japan’s Katayama says will scrutinise budget requests for next fiscal year strictly going forward
Japanese Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the official will not rely on deficit-covering bonds to fund the tax cut. Katayama added that government will scrutinise budget requests for next fiscal year strictly going forward.
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Japanese Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that the official will not rely on deficit-covering bonds to fund the tax cut. Katayama added that government will scrutinise budget requests for next fiscal year strictly going forward.Key quotes We will not rely on deficit-covering bonds to fund the tax cut.
We will ensure market credibility by reviewing both spending and revenue.
We won't issue debt to fund food sales tax cut.
Will aim to secure enough funding through efforts to boost non-tax revenue.
We expect a meaningful level of overshoot in tax revenue.
We will cut wasteful spending drastically from here.
We will scrutinise budget requests for next fiscal year strictly going forward.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.26% on the day at 154.75. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
We will ensure market credibility by reviewing both spending and revenue.
We won't issue debt to fund food sales tax cut.
Will aim to secure enough funding through efforts to boost non-tax revenue.
We expect a meaningful level of overshoot in tax revenue.
We will cut wasteful spending drastically from here.
We will scrutinise budget requests for next fiscal year strictly going forward.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.26% on the day at 154.75. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
09:19 ECB policymakers agree: Inflation in Eurozone to remain high amid energy crisis
The Euro (EUR) is down 0.12% at around 1.1535 against the US Dollar (USD) in the early European trading session on Tuesday.
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The major currency pair is under pressure even as a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) officials have warned of upside inflation risks, which have fuelled expectations of one more interest rate hike this year.On Thursday, the ECB raised its key policy rates by 25 basis points (bps), as expected, and warned that more hikes could follow.According to a report from Reuters, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Barclays expect the ECB to raise rates again in December. Traders are pricing in a 94% chance of a quarter-point rate hike in December, according to LSEG data. Citi also anticipates an additional hike in March 2027.Following the policy decision, comments from policymakers have signaled fears of prolonged inflationary pressures.Over the weekend, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview with Ouest-France that the “current energy shock is longer-lasting”. She added that the “conflict is continuing” and, “We [ECB] expect the volatility and pressure on energy prices to continue, even though the increase in prices also poses a risk of lower growth.On Monday, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel also warned of prolonged inflation risks, citing that “refining capacities have reduced drastically and can’t be rebuilt quickly”.Scotiabank noted that “hawkish comments from the ECB appear to be intensifying in response to the latest rise in energy prices,” with Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel describing the recent move in energy costs as “quite concerning,” reinforcing expectations of a more forceful policy stance.Separately on Monday, ECB member and Latvia’s central bank governor, Martins Kazaks told Reuters that rise in fuel costs due to the Iran war starts seeping through to wages and other prices, adding, “The case is building up for more tightening.”Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s outperformance on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates on Wednesday is significantly hurting the major currency pair.At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.18% higher to near 99.64.EUR/USD Technical AnalysisEUR/USD trades lower at around 1.1535, holding below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1594 and keeping the near-term bias tilted lower. The pair remains capped by this short-term average, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 41 hovers in neutral-to-soft territory, suggesting downside pressure is present but not yet overstretched.On the topside, initial resistance stands at the 20-day EMA near 1.1594, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way for a more sustained recovery toward the September 9 high at 1.1654. Looking down, the pair could extend its decline to near the psychological level of 1.1500.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Economic Indicator ECB Rate On Deposit Facility One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings. Read more. Last release: Thu Sep 10, 2026 12:15 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 2.5% Consensus: 2.5% Previous: 2.25% Source: European Central Bank
09:19 Indian Rupee: RBI support tempers depreciation risks versus US Dollar - MUFG
MUFG’s Michael Wan assesses Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) June 2026 FX measures and their impact on the Indian Rupee and USD/INR. He notes a large build-up of FX reserves and liquidity, and argues these measures have reduced tail risks of sharp INR depreciation.
MUFG’s Michael Wan assesses Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) June 2026 FX measures and their impact on the Indian Rupee and USD/INR. He notes a large build-up of FX reserves and liquidity, and argues these measures have reduced tail risks of sharp INR depreciation. However, MUFG still expects USD/INR to rise gradually into 2027, with INR underperforming other Asian currencies.RBI FX inflows reshape INR outlook"Following RBI’s FX measures announced in June 2026 to support the Indian Rupee, the amount of Dollars attracted through the various facilities including FCNR(B) deposits now stands at a meaningful US$136bn as of 31 Aug, and likely still rising as we speak. With this huge deluge of money, it made sense in retrospect for RBI to have closed the FCNR(B) facility earlier than expected.""Note that there is no spot FX transaction unless RBI actively chooses to intervene in the INR FX market. As such it’s not surprising that USD/INR did not move much immediately in the first instance. These Dollar inflows do give RBI far bigger firepower to defend against INR weakness, but they also bring about their own set of challenges, namely INR liquidity management.""From an FX perspective, we continue to think that RBI’s measures have significantly reduced the left tail risk of sharp INR depreciation. Nonetheless, given still strong underlying Dollar demand including from gross FDI repatriation and a strong IPO issuance pipeline, we are still forecasting USD/INR to move higher directionally.""We are forecasting USD/INR at 95.50 by Dec 2026 and 96.50 by June 2027, implying a gradual depreciation in INR against the Dollar and a modest underperformance against other Asian currencies."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
09:19 British Pound drops against Japanese Yen after UK labor market data
The British Pound (GBP) faces slight selling pressure against the Japanese Yen (JPY), dropping to near 208.60 on Tuesday after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for three months ending July.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
09:12 Oil: Saudi pipeline outage supports prices – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices have surged as the Saudi East–West pipeline shutdown tightens supply and keeps ICE Brent near recent resistance around $110/bbl.
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices have surged as the Saudi East–West pipeline shutdown tightens supply and keeps ICE Brent near recent resistance around $110/bbl. They highlight persistent uncertainty over damage and outage duration, with Saudi storage at Yanbu only offering temporary relief and risks that port stocks deplete before flows resume, leaving prices well supported in the near term.Saudi outage keeps Brent supported"Oil prices surged yesterday amid broader escalation in the Middle East and the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s 7m b/d East-West pipeline. ICE Brent traded to an intraday high of just below $110/bbl, a level at which the market has faced tough resistance over the last 3 days.""Plenty of uncertainty remains over the extent of damage and the duration of the outage for the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia. Prices are likely to remain well supported until we get clarity.""Reports suggest the pipeline could be offline for several weeks. The Saudis have oil in storage tanks at Yanbu, which should sustain exports for several days.""The risk is that port stocks run out before the pipeline resumes. Some suggest the Saudis are looking to increase exports via the Strait of Hormuz amid the pipeline outage.""Given the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, that may be easier said than done. Despite Trump stating that Russia and Ukraine agreed to halt hitting each other’s energy infrastructure, we’ve seen little relief in middle distillate cracks."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
09:01 4.9%: United Kingdom Unemployment Rate stays unchanged in July
The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate stayed at 4.9% in the three months to July after reporting 4.9% in the previous reading, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday. The data came in below the market consensus of 5.0%.
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The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate stayed at 4.9% in the three months to July after reporting 4.9% in the previous reading, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday. The data came in below the market consensus of 5.0%.Additional details of the report showed that the number of people claiming jobless benefits climbed by 27.8K in August, compared with a revised decrease of 11.8K in July and the expected 8.3K gain.The Employment Change data came in at 67K in July against 83K recorded in June. Meanwhile, Average Earnings, excluding Bonus, in the UK ticked up by 3.5% three months year-over-year (3M YoY) in July versus a 3.5% growth booked previously. The market expectation was for a 3.5% print.Another measure of wage inflation, Average Earnings, including Bonus, rose by 3.9% in the same period after increasing by 4.2% in the quarter through June (revised from 4.1%). The data matched the estimate of 3.9%. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
08:57 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Tests 50-day EMA barrier amid potential bullish breakout
USD/CAD continues its winning streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 1.3910 during Asian hours on Tuesday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/CAD tests the immediate barrier at the 50-day EMA of 1.3914.The 14-day Relative Strength Index is near 54, supporting a bullish breakout.The primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3861.USD/CAD continues its winning streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 1.3910 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the price is positioned slightly above the top trendline of a descending channel; it primarily signals a potential bullish breakout. However, until a decisive confirmation occurs, a small move above the top boundary carries the risk of a false breakout, where sellers push the price back down into the channel.The USD/CAD pair is holding above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remains capped by the 50-day EMA, leaving the near-term tone broadly neutral with a mild topside bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 54 hints at recovering bullish momentum, yet the proximity of the 50-day EMA overhead suggests that bulls still need a clear daily close above this barrier to unlock further gains.The USD/CAD pair is testing the immediate barrier at the 50-day EMA of 1.3914. A sustained break above the short-term price average would strengthen the bullish bias and support the pair in exploring the region around the nearly 17-month high of 1.4248, which was recorded on June 24, 2026.On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.3861. A pullback toward the descending channel would revive the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair to test the descending channel bottom at 1.3560, followed by 1.3481, the lowest level since October 2024.USD/CAD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.11% 0.11% 0.28% 0.07% 0.24% 0.29% 0.09% EUR -0.11% 0.00% 0.14% -0.04% 0.13% 0.17% -0.02% GBP -0.11% -0.00% 0.15% -0.06% 0.11% 0.15% -0.02% JPY -0.28% -0.14% -0.15% -0.20% -0.02% 0.01% -0.17% CAD -0.07% 0.04% 0.06% 0.20% 0.17% 0.21% 0.03% AUD -0.24% -0.13% -0.11% 0.02% -0.17% 0.04% -0.15% NZD -0.29% -0.17% -0.15% -0.01% -0.21% -0.04% -0.17% CHF -0.09% 0.02% 0.02% 0.17% -0.03% 0.15% 0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
08:30 Indian Rupee declines further as US Treasury Yields extend rally
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its previous week’s downfall against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the USD/INR rising to near 95.85 in the opening session.
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The Indian currency was expected to continue its underperformance as 10-year United States (US) Treasury Yields have hit record highs of 5% and the prolonged upside in oil prices.Surging US Treasury Yields have also strengthened the US Dollar. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.15% to near 99.62.US Treasury Yields have extended their rally to a little over 5%, the level last seen in October 2023, on the back of firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates in the policy announcement on Wednesday.Hawkish Fed expectations are prompted by hotter-than-projected US Producer Price Index (PPI) and sticky Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports for August. While the Fed is almost certain to raise interest rates, investors will pay more attention to the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference to get fresh cues regarding the interest rate outlook.Fed seen hiking in September but stopping after one moveEconomists at ING explain that they have "changed their view to a 25bp Federal Reserve rate hike in September in the wake of Chair Kevin Warsh’s address at the Jackson Hole symposium," adding that "the data since then has justified that decision." While they acknowledge that "ordinarily the assumption is that if the Fed hikes, they don’t just go once," and that "financial markets are now pricing two and a half further rate hikes after the all-but-assured 16 September move," the ING team argues that "this time around we think that one and done might be the case," with their projections for jobs and inflation suggesting "no need for a series of hikes."Oil prices remain higher amid escalating energy supply concernsIn the opening session, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on September 21 is up 1.8% to near Rs. 9,900. The oil price is close to its multi-month high of Rs. 10,043 posted on Friday.Currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, tend to underperform in a high-oil-price environment.Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlight that the latest move in the oil price comes “following the precautionary shutdown of a major Saudi pipeline late on Friday following recent attacks, and the postponement of today's planned meeting between Iran and other Gulf states to discuss the creation of a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz.” They note that these developments have reinforced market concerns around regional supply security and key shipping routes.India’s retail CPI rises at slightly faster-than-expected paceOn Monday, India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reported that the retail CPI grew by 4.82% Year-on-Year (YoY), faster than 4.8% estimates and the previous reading of 4.45%. Still, the CPI data remains inside Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) tolerance band of 2%-6%.A faster-than-projected growth in inflationary pressures at the retail level will likely increase expectations of an interest rate hike by the RBI in the near term.USD/INR Technical AnalysisUSD/INR trades sharply higher at around 95.85. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as it trades above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.30, suggesting dips remain supported while buyers maintain control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62.3 leans into bullish territory, hinting that upside momentum is firm but not yet overstretched.On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near 95.30, reinforcing a deeper demand zone on any corrective pullback, followed by 95.00. Looking up, the pair could aim to revisit the all-time high near 97.10.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
08:29 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Flatlines above 110.00, bearish outlook persists
The AUD/JPY cross trades on a flat note around 110.20 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Markets might turn cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision later on Friday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY holds steady near 110.20 in Tuesday’s early European session. BoJ is likely to raise its benchmark interest rate to 1.25% at its meeting on Friday. The negative outlook for the cross remains intact, with oversold conditions. The first upside barrier emerges at 112.45; the initial support level to watch is 109.35. The AUD/JPY cross trades on a flat note around 110.20 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Markets might turn cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision later on Friday. The BoJ is expected to raise its policy interest rate to 1.25%, the highest level in about 31 years, at its September policy-setting meeting on Friday. The Japanese central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 1.0% at its recent June meeting. Traders will keep an eye on BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda about the pace of future rate hikes and how far the central bank could take rates under the current tightening cycle. "A 25 bps hike is already almost fully priced," said MUFG analysts. ”For the yen to strengthen further, the BOJ will have to signal that they are planning to stick to the faster pace of hikes,” they added.On the other hand, a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeps the possibility of further rate hikes alive, supporting the Aussie. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said on Tuesday that the central bank may need to raise interest rates again if inflation proves more persistent than expected. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 76% chance that the Australian central bank will raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.60% at the next RBA Board meeting, according to RBA Rate Tracker.Yen outlook firms as BoJ seen validating hawkish pricingAnalysts at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the Bank of Japan is “widely expected to raise the policy rate 25bps to 1.25% on Friday after pausing in July,” reflecting a backdrop in which “Japan underlying inflation is very close to the 2% target and the economy is running slightly above capacity.” They add that “a 50bps hike cannot be ruled out as it would help contain inflation expectations, and cap longer term JGB yields.”Looking beyond this week’s decision, BBH highlights that “markets will look for indication that another 25bps hike is in store by year-end, and that rates can approach 2.00% over the next twelve months, as implied by the swaps curve.” In their view, the BoJ has scope to endorse that trajectory because “the policy rate is near the bottom of its estimated 1.10-2.50% neutral range,” leaving room for further tightening if the current macro backdrop persists.Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY keeps a bearish vibe amid oversold RSIIn the daily chart, AUD/JPY remains under clear bearish pressure, holding well below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band, which together suggest a market still dominated by sellers on rallies. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 30, hinting at oversold conditions, but this only tempers rather than overturns the downside bias while price stays capped beneath the clustered daily averages.On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the August 10 low of 112.45, en route to the Bollinger middle band near 112.65. Further north, the next hurdle to watch is the 100-day SMA around 112.95. The Bollinger upper band near 115.95 acts as a more distant barrier if a stronger rebound unfolds. On the downside, the Bollinger lower band near 109.35 offers the first notable support. A decisive break below this zone would open the door to the August 3 low of 109.24, followed by the March 31 low of 108.79.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
08:22 WTI Price Forecast: Retakes $99.00 as bulls eye further gains amid Middle East jitters
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts fresh buyers following the previous day's two-way price swings and climbs back above the $99.00 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday.
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The black liquid remains close to its highest level since May 21, touched last Friday, and seems poised to climb further amid intensifying supply concerns due to the Middle East crisis.In the latest developments, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen carried out a large-scale missile and drone attack on a Saudi air base in Khamis Mushait on Monday. Furthermore, Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei rejected the prospect of immediate negotiations with the US, saying that Tehran will not return to talks until its conditions are met. This, in turn, dampens hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the war and keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, validating the positive outlook for crude oil prices.From a technical perspective, the recent breakout above the $91.00 horizontal barrier, which also represented the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July corrective fall, was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Adding to this, momentum stays constructive, with the Relative Strength Index hovering just below overbought territory around 69 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remaining positive. This further points to persistent upside pressure while crude oil prices stay above the high-$90s area.Meanwhile, the next notable resistance aligns with the prior cycle high near $107.23, which could cap the immediate bullish scope unless decisively broken. On the downside, initial support is now seen near $98.57 at the 78.6% retracement, followed by the 61.8% level around $91.78 and the 50% retracement near $87.01. Further pullbacks would encounter the 100-day SMA clustered around $85.39 before more substantial Fibonacci floors emerge at $82.24 and $76.33, which should provide additional layers of demand before the cycle low around $66.79.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)WTI daily chart WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
07:53 Indonesian Rupiah weakens amid stronger US Dollar, higher oil prices
Indonesian rupiah weakened as rising oil prices raised inflation fears and threatened the net oil importer's fiscal position.
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The pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from rising expectations for a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike this week.Rising energy costs have intensified inflation concerns, placing greater pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy. As a result, money markets surged on Monday to reflect over a 92% chance of a rate hike, a sharp increase from roughly 60% just a week prior, based on data from the CME FedWatch tool.USD firms as FOMC expectations tilt toward further tighteningStrategists at Scotiabank report that the USD is entering FOMC week “on a firm note,” as markets respond to the “shift in expectations around the policy decision on Wednesday following last week’s US inflation data.” They highlight that swaps now “reflect 21bps (or 85%) of tightening risk for Wednesday,” while the latest Bloomberg survey “shows only a very narrow majority of respondents favouring a hold,” underscoring how finely balanced market and survey-based expectations have become ahead of the meeting.Friday's economic data revealed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose in August, with core inflation recording its largest gain in four months. Moreover, the US 10-year Treasury yield surged toward 5% due to broader inflation and fiscal worries.The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) also faces challenges amid rising oil prices, threatening to inflame domestic inflation and strain the fiscal balance of the net oil-importing nation. These inflationary fears mounted after August headline inflation accelerated to 3.19%, undercutting government measures aimed at curbing El Niño-driven food price volatility.Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, USD/IDR trades at 17,730, holding in a neutral near-term stance as it sits above the short-term nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remains capped below the medium-term 50-period EMA. This push-pull configuration suggests consolidation rather than a clear trend, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 47 stays below the midline, hinting that upside momentum is still subdued even as selling pressure has eased.On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the 50-period EMA near 17,797, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to reopen a stronger recovery phase. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nine-period EMA around 17,685; a break beneath this buffer would expose the recent lows and tilt the bias back toward the bears.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
07:40 Japanese Yen sticks to losses against bullish USD as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings loom
The USD/JPY pair sticks to a positive bias for the second straight day and trades above mid-154.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction as traders seem hesitant ahead of this week's key central bank events.
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Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction as traders seem hesitant ahead of this week's key central bank events.The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are scheduled to announce this policy decisions on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, amid firming expectations for an imminent rate hike. Hence, the focus will be on the central banks' policy outlook going forward, which, in turn, will play a key role in determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD/JPY pair.In the meantime, a more hawkish repricing of the BoJ's policy normalization path might continue to underpin the Japanese Yen (JPY) and act as a headwind for the currency pair. However, the bullish sentiment surrounding the USD, bolstered by elevated US bond yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainties, might continue to lend some support to the USD/JPY pair and limit the downside.Yen support builds as BoJ tightening expectations hardenAnalysts at DBS note that speculative positioning has shifted meaningfully in favour of the Yen, with “speculators have unwound their short JPY positions following July’s joint US-Japan currency intervention and a shift in expectations towards further Bank of Japan tightening.” According to the bank, the policy debate has also moved, as “even former BoJ-tightening sceptics – including Takuji Aida, an economic adviser to Takaichi and a former vocal opponent of BOJ tightening – are now acknowledging the case for higher rates, strengthening expectations for a hawkish hike on September 18.”Against the backdrop of rising Fed rate hike bets, inflationary concerns stemming from higher energy prices lift the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond beyond the 5% threshold for the first time since 2023. Adding to this, the US-Iran standoff and the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East keep the safe-haven USD close to a nearly two-week high, set on Monday.USD/JPY 4-hour chartTechnical AnalysisThe USD/JPY pair is looking to build strength above the 154.60-154.65 confluence – comprising the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. This comes on top of the recent recovery from 153.00s and suggests buyers are attempting to build a base, though the broader advance remains shallow against a dense band of overhead retracements.On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 155.74, followed by the 50.0% retracement at 156.62 and the 61.8% level at 157.50, with higher barriers at 158.76 and the cycle high region near 160.35. On the downside, immediate support is aligned at the 23.6% retracement at 154.65, reinforced by the 50-period SMA at 154.62; a break below this area would expose the next structural floor around 152.89.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
07:35 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.The price for Gold stood at 13,262.34 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 13,249.12 it cost on Monday.The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 154,689.50 per tola from INR 154,535.10 per tola a day earlier.Unit measureGold Price in INR1 Gram13,262.3410 Grams132,623.60Tola154,689.50Troy Ounce412,505.20FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:33 Asian stocks trade mixed, AI stocks and oil prices in focus
Asian equities trade mixed on Tuesday as traders weighed Middle East tensions and calls by industry figures for a slowdown in AI development.
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Warnings from AI leaders about a slowdown in AI development weigh on the market. Elevated oil prices and higher bond yields add to caution ahead of Fed and BoJ policy meetings this week. Asian equities trade mixed on Tuesday as traders weighed Middle East tensions and calls by industry figures for a slowdown in AI development. Crude oil extended its rally and Asian bonds tracked US Treasuries lower as a surge in oil prices revived inflation concerns and strengthened bets on a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hike.High energy prices weighed on Asian bonds, with government debt in Australia opening lower. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.75% to 8,685. "Markets are likely to remain focused on the risk that higher crude oil prices could add to inflationary pressures and, in turn, push interest rates higher," said Yokoo Akihiko, analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, in a note. Asian markets remain volatile after leading AI figures warned they will slow development for the safety of humanity. Anthropic PBC chief executive officer, Dario Amodei, said that development of the most advanced systems must be slowed in order to prevent AI slipping beyond human control and inflicting catastrophic harm.“The prospect of a coordinated slowdown in AI development remains uncertain, given intense competition both among U.S. firms and between the U.S. and China,” Ng Jing Wen, analyst at Mizuho Bank, said in a report.Meanwhile, the South Korean stock, the benchmark KOSPI, gained 0.04% to 6,685. India’s Nifty50 was up 0.27% to trade at 23,462 on Tuesday. In Taiwan, the Taiex declined by 0.27% to 45,735. China and Hong Kong stock markets lost momentum on Tuesday, with the SHANGHAI, China’s main stock market index, dropping by 0.10% to 3,881. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange decreased by 0.23% to 24,860. The Nikkei 225, Japan’s benchmark, rose 0.36% to 63,715. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25% from 1.0% on Friday as policymakers grow increasingly worried about inflation overshooting the BoJ's 2% target. This move would mark its fastest rate increase yet in the current cycle. Asian stocks FAQs Which are the main stock market indices in Asia? Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices. What are the main sectors represented in Asian stock markets? Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce. What factors drive Asian stock markets? Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities. What are the risks of investing in Asia stock markets? Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.
07:12 Gold bounces off 50-SMA support; bearish bias remains amid Fed hike bets and firmer USD
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers near the $4,284-$4,283 region during the Asian session on Tuesday and moves away from an over one-month low, touched the previous day.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Gold recovers further from a multi-week low, though the upside potential seems limited.Fed rate hike bets and inflation risk keep US bond yields elevated, supporting the USD.Geopolitical risks further underpin the safe-haven buck, which should cap the bullion.Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buyers near the $4,284-$4,283 region during the Asian session on Tuesday and moves away from an over one-month low, touched the previous day. Any meaningful appreciation, however, seems elusive amid a bearish fundamental backdrop and ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting, starting later today.The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce its decision on Wednesday, and the latest US inflation figures, released last week, lifted bets for an imminent interest rate hike. The focus, however, will be on updated economic projections, including the so-called dot plot, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments during the post-meeting press conference. Investors will look for more cues about the Fed's future policy path, which will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding Gold.Heading into the key central bank event, inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices underpin prospects for further Fed policy tightening. Adding to this, a surge in public and corporate borrowing contributed to an extended global bond selloff. This, in turn, lifted the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond above the 5% threshold for the first time since 2023. Adding to this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties keep the safe-haven USD close to a nearly two-week high, touched on Monday, and should cap any further gains for Gold.In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen carried out a large-scale missile and drone attack on a Saudi air base in Khamis Mushait on Monday. Moreover, Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei rejected the prospect of immediate negotiations with the US, saying that Tehran will not return to talks until its conditions are met. This dampens hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the war, favoring USD bulls and warranting caution before positioning for any further upside for the Gold price.XAU/USD daily chartTechnical AnalysisThe XAU/USD pair holds a slight neutral-to-capped tone as it sits just under the 50.0% retracement level of the June-August upswing, while still trading above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting consolidation rather than a clear trend. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 45, hinting at subdued momentum. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory with a depressed histogram, reinforcing the idea that rallies may struggle unless buyers reclaim overhead Fibonacci resistance.Meanwhile, a move above the 50.0% retracement around $4,323 could face a strong barrier at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement near $4,412 and then the 23.6% level close to $4,522 if upside pressure builds. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 50-day SMA at about $4,275, ahead of the 61.8% Fibo. retracement around $4,234. A convincing break below this zone would expose the deeper structural supports at the 78.6% retracement near $4,108 and the prior anchor area around $3,947.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.11% 0.11% 0.22% 0.10% 0.29% 0.44% 0.10% EUR -0.11% 0.00% 0.09% -0.01% 0.17% 0.32% -0.01% GBP -0.11% -0.01% 0.08% -0.03% 0.19% 0.29% -0.01% JPY -0.22% -0.09% -0.08% -0.12% 0.07% 0.21% -0.12% CAD -0.10% 0.01% 0.03% 0.12% 0.19% 0.33% 0.00% AUD -0.29% -0.17% -0.19% -0.07% -0.19% 0.14% -0.20% NZD -0.44% -0.32% -0.29% -0.21% -0.33% -0.14% -0.32% CHF -0.10% 0.00% 0.01% 0.12% -0.00% 0.20% 0.32% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
06:31 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Hovers around 178.50 within oversold territory
EUR/JPY gains ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 178.70 during Asian hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross remains within the descending channel pattern, signalling an ongoing bearish bias.
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06:15 Swiss Franc remains under pressure against US Dollar, Fed’s policy in focus
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is down against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the USD/CHF pair trading slightly higher at around 0.8178 in the Asian session.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Swiss Franc trades lower against the US Dollar ahead of the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday.The Fed is widely anticipated to hike interest rates.Financial markets expect the SNB to hold interest rates at 0% later this month.The Swiss Franc (CHF) is down against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with the USD/CHF pair trading slightly higher at around 0.8178 in the Asian session. The Swiss Franc pair remains higher as the US Dollar outperforms amid firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates in the policy meeting on Wednesday.At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 99.58.FOMC set for first hike since 2023 as market eyes Warsh’s guidanceStrategists at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) expect the FOMC to break its streak of five consecutive holds, noting that “the FOMC is poised to deliver a 25bps hike to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday, marking its first hike since July 2023.” BBH argues that “persistently above target US inflation and a stable labor market justify a rate increase,” and points out that positioning is already heavily skewed toward such an outcome, with “Fed funds futures price in roughly 90% odds of a hike this week.”As the Fed is widely anticipated to tighten monetary conditions, market experts view monetary policy statement and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference as key trigger for the US Dollar’s next move.Against that backdrop, BBH also said that “the vote split, updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference will guide the market reaction,” as investors parse the decision for signals on the policy path ahead.On the Swiss Franc front, financial markets expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to continue on its monetary easing path and leave interest rates at 0% in the policy meeting later this month.Nomura sees SNB on hold at zeroAnalysts at Nomura argue that the Swiss policy stance is likely to remain unchanged, noting that “in Switzerland, we expect no change in rates for the foreseeable future, as inflation is low, but the policy rate is 0.00% and the SNB has expressed caution about unwanted side effects of a negative policy rate.” Against this backdrop, they see little impetus for the SNB to adjust its current setting, with subdued price pressures and concerns over the costs of re-entering negative territory reinforcing a steady policy bias.USD/CHF Technical AnalysisIn the daily chart, USD/CHF trades at 0.8179. The pair holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.8111, keeping the short-term structure supported and hinting at a constructive bias while price consolidates over this dynamic floor. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 63 remains in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting that bullish momentum is intact but not overstretched.On the downside, the 20-day EMA at 0.8111 is the first key support, and a daily close below this level would weaken the current constructive tone and expose a deeper pullback toward prior lows. As long as the pair holds above this moving average and RSI stays in the upper half of its range, dips are likely to find buyers, leaving the broader near-term bias tilted to the upside despite the absence of clearly defined overhead resistance levels nearby.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
05:40 United States Dollar Index strengthens above 99.50 as Fed rate hike bets rise
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.60 in the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The DXY edges higher on expectations of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike on Wednesday.
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Expectations of a Fed rate hike rise after recent hot inflation data and rallying oil prices.Traders await the Fed interest rate decision later on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.60 in the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The DXY edges higher on expectations of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike on Wednesday. Markets are increasingly convinced that the Fed will hike interest rates at its September policy meeting on Wednesday in response to the jump in energy prices that has pushed underlying inflation higher than expected in August.According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets pointed to a roughly 92.4% chance of a rate increase, up from around 60% a week ago. “Markets are now fully pricing in a Fed rate hike following last week’s CPI data. At the same time, the renewed rise in oil prices could reinforce inflation concerns and keep the Fed on a hawkish footing,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.Traders will closely monitor Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference following the rate decision as it might offer some hints about the US interest rate outlook. An unchanged decision from the Fed or a dovish hike could weigh on the DXY. On the other hand, hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers could lift the US Dollar in the near term. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar. Yemen’s Houthis on Monday claimed to have carried out a large-scale missile and drone attack on a Saudi air base in the southern city of Khamis Mushait.USD outlook hinges on Fed tone as markets brace for FOMC decisionStrategists at Scotiabank caution that the balance of risks for the USD around this week’s FOMC meeting is skewed to the downside if the Fed underwhelms market expectations. They argue that “an unchanged decision from the Fed would be a shock for markets and a clear negative for the USD,” given how firmly a move is now priced. Even if policymakers do deliver a hike, Scotiabank warns that a “dovish” hike which does not obviously commit to additional moves would also likely weigh on the USD, as investors reassess the durability of any policy-driven support for the currency.Technical Analysis: US Dollar Index maintains a negative outlook below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, the near-term bias of Dollar Index Spot remains mildly bearish as price holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting the broader recovery is still capped by overhead supply. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 53 hints at stabilizing momentum after earlier weakness, but this improvement alone has yet to shift the structure back into a clear bullish stance while the index trades under its key trend average.On the topside, immediate resistance appears at the upper Bollinger Band around 99.75, followed by the 100-day SMA near 99.80, where a daily close above would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way toward higher levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band, the 20-day SMA, around 99.15, with further demand expected near the lower Bollinger Band around 98.55, where a break would reinforce downside pressure and signal scope for a deeper pullback.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
05:36 New Zealand Dollar remains subdued following release of China’s economic data
NZD/USD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 0.5760 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds losses following the release of key economic data from China, New Zealand’s close trading partner.
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The pair remains as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds losses following the release of key economic data from China, New Zealand’s close trading partner.China’s Retail Sales rose 0.4% year-over-year (YoY) in August vs. a rise of 0.8% expected and a 0.6% growth in July. Industrial Production climbed 5.2% YoY in the same period, compared to the 4.8% forecast and 4.5% seen previously. Meanwhile, Fixed Asset Investment came in at -7.2% year-to-date (YTD) YoY in August, in line with the expected decrease of 7.2%. The July reading was a decline of 6.7%.Moreover, the NZD/USD pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from rising expectations for a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike this week. Rising energy costs have intensified inflation concerns, placing greater pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy. As a result, money markets surged on Monday to reflect over a 92% chance of a rate hike, a sharp increase from roughly 60% just a week prior, based on data from the CME FedWatch tool.Friday's economic data revealed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose in August, with core inflation recording its largest gain in four months. Moreover, the US 10-year Treasury yield surged toward 5% due to broader inflation and fiscal worries. Economic Indicator Retail Sales (YoY) The Retail Sales data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, measures the value of goods sold by retailers in China. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the YoY reading comparing sales values in the reference month with the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Tue Sep 15, 2026 02:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 0.4% Consensus: 0.8% Previous: 0.6% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
05:27 Australian Dollar remains depressed below mid-0.7100s vs bullish USD after Chinese data
The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest bounce from the 0.7100 neighborhood, or an over three-week low, and trades with a negative bias for the second straight day on Tuesday.
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Spot prices react little to China's mixed macro data and remain depressed near the 0.7130 region through the Asian session.China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Retail Sales rose 0.4% YoY in August vs. a rise of 0.8% expected and a 0.6% growth recorded in the previous month. Adding to this, Fixed Asset Investment came in at -7.2% year-to-date (YTD) in August, down from -6.7% in July. Meanwhile, China's Industrial Production climbed 5.2% YoY during the reported month, up from 4.5% seen in July and surpassing consensus estimates for a reading of 4.8%.The data, however, fails to provide any meaningful impetus to the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD), with a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD) turning out to be an exclusive driver of the AUD/USD pair's momentum. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, stands firm near a two-week high, touched on Monday, and continues to act as a headwind for the currency pair ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting.The growing acceptance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates on Wednesday, along with oil-inflation risks, remains supportive of elevated US bond yields. Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the Middle East crisis further benefit the safe-haven Greenback. However, expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates later this month could help limit losses for the AUD/USD pair.AUD/USD daily chartTechnical AnalysisThe AUD/USD pair is pressing just under the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7147, which acts as the immediate upside hurdle. Spot prices, however, hold a constructive near-term bias above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7074. The 50.0% retracement at 0.7049 could act as the next relevant support if selling pressure extends.On the topside, a break above the 23.6% retracement at 0.7147 would open the way toward the recent swing high region around 0.7234, where stronger resistance is expected to emerge.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
05:07 China’s Retail Sales rise 0.4% in August, Industrial Production up 5.2%
China’s Retail Sales rose 0.4% year-over-year (YoY) in August vs. a rise of 0.8% expected and a 0.6% growth in July, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Tuesday.
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China’s Retail Sales rose 0.4% year-over-year (YoY) in August vs. a rise of 0.8% expected and a 0.6% growth in July, the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Tuesday.Chinese Industrial Production climbed 5.2% YoY in the same period, compared to the 4.8% forecast and 4.5% seen previously.Meanwhile, the Fixed Asset Investment came in at -7.2% year-to-date (YTD) YoY in August, in line with the expected decrease of 7.2%. The July reading was a decline of 6.7%.Market reaction The mixed Chinese data have little to no impact on the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading 0.10% lower on the day at 0.7132.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:56 British Pound drifts lower below 1.3500 as Fed hike bets rise, UK jobs data loom
The GBP/USD pair loses momentum to around 1.3490 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Expectations of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike on Wednesday provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP). The UK jobs report is due on Tuesday.
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Technical Analysis: GBP/USD retains a neutral outlook in the near termIn the daily chart, GBP/USD holds a neutral near-term tone as it trades between the 20-day Bollinger middle band as overhead resistance and a cluster of supports formed by the 20-day lower band and the 100-day moving average. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers just below the 50 line, hinting at subdued directional momentum while price consolidates within the Bollinger envelope.On the topside, a clear move above the Bollinger middle band at 1.3557 would expose the upper band near 1.3660 as the next resistance hurdle. On the downside, initial support is seen just under the market around 1.3455 at the lower Bollinger band, followed by the 100-day moving average at 1.3445; a break below this zone would tilt the bias back toward the bears.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD retains a neutral outlook in the near termIn the daily chart, GBP/USD holds a neutral near-term tone as it trades between the 20-day Bollinger middle band as overhead resistance and a cluster of supports formed by the 20-day lower band and the 100-day moving average. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers just below the 50 line, hinting at subdued directional momentum while price consolidates within the Bollinger envelope.On the topside, a clear move above the Bollinger middle band at 1.3557 would expose the upper band near 1.3660 as the next resistance hurdle. On the downside, initial support is seen just under the market around 1.3455 at the lower Bollinger band, followed by the 100-day moving average at 1.3445; a break below this zone would tilt the bias back toward the bears.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
04:55 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $63.00 amid rising inflation, Treasury yields
Silver price (XAG/USD) falls for the second successive day, trading around $63.20 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Tuesday. Silver could face further depreciation as elevated oil prices heighten expectations for a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
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Silver could face further depreciation as elevated oil prices heighten expectations for a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike.Rising energy costs have intensified inflation concerns, placing greater pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy. As a result, money markets surged on Monday to reflect over a 92% chance of a rate hike, a sharp increase from roughly 60% just a week prior, based on data from the CME FedWatch tool.Compounding these rate hike expectations, Friday's economic data revealed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose in August, with core inflation recording its largest gain in four months. Moreover, the US 10-year Treasury yield surged toward 5% due to broader inflation and fiscal worries, placing additional downward pressure on non-yielding precious metals like Silver.TD Securities maps cta reactions across Silver scenariosAccording to TD Securities, their latest CTA tracker highlights that trend-following funds currently hold a "CTA positioning est., Silver" that is consistent with only a modest long, leaving room for adjustment as price action evolves. The bank’s scenario work explicitly differentiates between a "big downtape CTA positioning est., Silver," a more moderate "downtape CTA positioning est., Silver," and a "CTA positioning est., Silver, flat tape," underscoring how systematic flows could vary materially depending on whether the metal sells off sharply, drifts lower, or trades broadly sideways in the months ahead. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
04:52 Euro remains depressed below mid-1.1500s vs bullish USD as focus remains on FOMC
The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers for the fourth straight day and trades below mid-1.1500s during the Asian session on Tuesday, just above a one-month low touched the previous day.
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Moreover, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside.The US Dollar (USD) retains its bullish bias ahead of the two-day FOMC policy meeting, starting later today, amid a combination of supporting factors and continues to weigh on the EUR/USD pair. Against the backdrop of firming US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations, inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices keep US bond yields near multi-year highs. This, along with escalating US-Iran tensions, underpins the safe-haven buck.US Treasury yields edge toward key 5% thresholdING’s Padhraic Garvey warns that the Fed will be keenly aware of mounting pressure along the curve, noting that the 10-year US Treasury yield is “looking for an excuse to mark at 5%.” He points out that the benchmark, “now at 4.9%, it’s been bullied up there partly by high inflation readings, and more worryingly, a more recent slow ratchet higher in inflation expectations.” While he stresses that these expectations “are not at sinister levels,” Garvey argues they “could do with some treatment from the Fed in order to at least help contain them.”In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen claimed to have carried out a large-scale missile and drone attack on a Saudi air base in the southern city of Khamis Mushait on Monday. Moreover, Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei rejected the prospect of immediate negotiations with the US, saying that Tehran will not return to talks until its conditions are met.This comes on top of the continued clashes in the Strait of Hormuz and keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, supporting crude oil prices and the Greenback. Traders, however, might wait for the crucial Fed rate decision on Wednesday before placing fresh bullish bets on the USD. Adding to this, the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish outlook could offer some support to the Euro and help limit deeper losses for the EUR/USD pair.EUR/USD daily chartTechnical AnalysisThe EUR/USD pair keeps a bearish tone below the 100-day and the 200-day SMAs. However, sellers may need a clean break of the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at about 1.1533 of the latest swing to extend the decline to the 61.8% retracement near 1.1491. Deeper cushions are seen at the 78.6% level at 1.1430 and the prior swing low region around 1.1353. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA around 1.1555, ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 1.1575. However, a more substantial cap is seen into the 23.6% level at 1.1628 and the 200-day SMA close to 1.1633, which together define a dense barrier that would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish bias.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) US Dollar Price Last 7 Days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.74% 0.38% 0.23% 0.67% 1.21% 1.96% 1.04% EUR -0.74% -0.33% -0.48% -0.06% 0.51% 1.21% 0.32% GBP -0.38% 0.33% -0.17% 0.30% 0.84% 1.64% 0.65% JPY -0.23% 0.48% 0.17% 0.45% 0.96% 1.63% 0.82% CAD -0.67% 0.06% -0.30% -0.45% 0.54% 1.16% 0.36% AUD -1.21% -0.51% -0.84% -0.96% -0.54% 0.76% -0.18% NZD -1.96% -1.21% -1.64% -1.63% -1.16% -0.76% -0.97% CHF -1.04% -0.32% -0.65% -0.82% -0.36% 0.18% 0.97% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7670 vs. 6.7698 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.7670 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7698 and 6.7051euters estimate.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.7670 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7698 and 6.7051euters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
04:12 Canadian Dollar consolidates near 1.3900 as oil gains offset bullish USD ahead of Fed
The USD/CAD pair holds steady near the 1.3900 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday, stalling the previous day's modest pullback from a nearly two-week top.
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Technical AnalysisThe USD/CAD pair keeps a capped tone beneath the the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-day SMA confluence around 1.3930, with further barriers at the 50% retracement near 1.3989 and the 61.8% level around 1.4051. On the downside, the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 1.3852 offers the first notable support, ahead of a more important structural floor near 1.3728, where buyers may attempt to stabilize the pair.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Technical AnalysisThe USD/CAD pair keeps a capped tone beneath the the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-day SMA confluence around 1.3930, with further barriers at the 50% retracement near 1.3989 and the 61.8% level around 1.4051. On the downside, the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 1.3852 offers the first notable support, ahead of a more important structural floor near 1.3728, where buyers may attempt to stabilize the pair.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
04:05 WTI rises above $98.50 amid Middle East supply fears
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $98.60 per barrel during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Crude oil prices appreciate as traders continue to navigate heightened uncertainty over global supply.
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Crude oil prices appreciate as traders continue to navigate heightened uncertainty over global supply.Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which provides an alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz, remains shut following drone attacks, with no clear indication of when operations will resume.A diplomatic meeting between Iran and the Gulf Arab states to discuss the situation in Hormuz was also abruptly postponed. Meanwhile, Iran claimed that a supertanker attempting to enter a restricted area in Hormuz exploded after striking mines, while maintaining that it would not engage in talks with the US until its demands are met.In Eastern Europe, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is prepared to halt attacks on Russian energy targets if Russia does the same, contradicting US President Donald Trump’s claim that Moscow and Kyiv had already agreed to suspend strikes against each other’s energy infrastructure.Trend followers stay fully loaded in oil complexAccording to TD Securities, trend-following commodity trading advisors remain heavily committed to the energy complex, with the bank noting that "CTAs remain max long across crude oil, diesel and gasoline markets, with only vol levels constraining positioning at this point." This underscores how systematic length in oil products is now being limited less by conviction and more by volatility considerations. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
03:41 Japanese Yen weakens as Fed rate hike looms
The USD/JPY pair gains ground to near 154.55 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as traders ramp up their bets on a US interest rate hike in September.
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Traders brace for the Fed’s first interest rate hike in more than two years.BoJ is set to hike its policy rate at the September policy meeting on Friday. The USD/JPY pair gains ground to near 154.55 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as traders ramp up their bets on a US interest rate hike in September. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will take center stage later on Wednesday. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose in August, while a key measure of underlying inflation posted its largest gains in four months, data showed on Friday. This report has reinforced US rate hike expectations, lifting the Greenback against the JPY. Money markets on Monday pointed to roughly 92.4% odds of a rate hike, up from around 60% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.“The U.S. dollar has strengthened modestly at the start of this week, encouraged by building expectations that the Fed will begin tightening monetary policy,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is also expected to raise the interest rates at its September policy meeting on Friday. The last time the BoJ policy interest rate stood at 1.25% was in April 1995. Traders will closely monitor BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech on the pace of future rate hikes and how far the central bank could take rates under the current tightening cycle."A 25 bps hike is already almost fully priced," said MUFG analysts. ”For the yen to strengthen further, the BOJ will have to signal that they are planning to stick to the faster pace of hikes,” they added. Yen support builds as BoJ gains political room to normalizeAnalysts at DBS note that speculative positioning has shifted meaningfully in favour of the Yen, with “speculators [having] unwound their short JPY positions following July’s joint US-Japan currency intervention and a shift in expectations towards further Bank of Japan tightening.” They add that the policy backdrop has also become more supportive of normalization, arguing that “by implicitly pushing back against Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s fiscal instincts, Bessent gave the BoJ greater political room to normalize interest rates,” reinforcing the case for a more hawkish stance from the central bank.Technical Analysis: USD/JPY keeps a bearish bias below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, USD/JPY holds well below the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average and the 100-day moving average, keeping the near-term bias bearish despite a modest rebound from recent lows. The Relative Strength Index (14) has recovered from oversold territory toward 36, which hints at easing downside momentum but does not yet challenge the broader bearish structure.On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger midline near 157.15, with the 100-day simple moving average around 159.58 adding a stronger cap before the upper Bollinger band near 162.05. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at roughly 152.25 forms the next notable support zone, and a clear break below this floor would reopen the path toward deeper yen strength and a continuation of the corrective phase.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
02:53 Iran's President Pezeshkian: Our demands are the same as our previous demands
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Monday that Tehran is not at war with Saudi Arabia. Pezeshkian added that Iran’s demands for negotiation with the United States (US) are the same as our previous demands.
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Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Monday that Tehran is not at war with Saudi Arabia. Pezeshkian added that Iran’s demands for negotiation with the United States (US) are the same as our previous demands.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said the US is open to engaging with Iran after previously repeatedly insisting that he did not want to negotiate with the Islamic Republic. Trump further stated on Monday that oil is flowing through the Hormuz Strait and the price will drop after the Iran conflict ends.Key quotes from Iran's President Pezeshkian How can we negotiate with the United States, when they have never honored their commitments?
Our demands are the same as our previous demands.
We have no intention of going to war with Saudi Arabia.
Countries in the region can create security and a dynamic economy through cooperation.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 1.44% on the day at $98.05. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Our demands are the same as our previous demands.
We have no intention of going to war with Saudi Arabia.
Countries in the region can create security and a dynamic economy through cooperation.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 1.44% on the day at $98.05. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
02:32 Saudi Arabia issues emergency alert for Khamis Mushait, Abha
Saudi Arabia's Civil Defense on Monday issued emergency alerts for the Khamis Mushait Governorate and Abha City. The officials then lifted the warnings shortly after, urging residents to continue following official instructions and avoid gathering.
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Saudi Arabia's Civil Defense on Monday issued emergency alerts for the Khamis Mushait Governorate and Abha City. The officials then lifted the warnings shortly after, urging residents to continue following official instructions and avoid gathering.On Monday, Yemen’s Houthis claimed to have carried out a large-scale missile and drone attack on a Saudi air base in the southern city of Khamis Mushait. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said in a statement that the group targeted King Khalid Air Base with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 1.44% on the day at $98.05. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
02:14 Gold falls below $4,300 as higher US yields bolster Fed rate hike bets
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price slumps to around $4,295 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. Higher Treasury yields and hawkish monetary policy expectations weigh on the Gold price. Probability for a September rate hike jumped to nearly 92.4%. Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week. The US 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% for the first time since 2023 on Monday, as mounting inflation angst collided with swelling government and corporate borrowing needs. This, in turn, creates a headwind for non-yielding gold.The latest US inflation data and elevated energy prices have reinforced markets to significantly increase their bets on tighter monetary policy. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 92.4% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its September policy meeting on Wednesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold because the precious metal does not pay interest, making yield-bearing assets relatively more attractive.The Fed interest rate decision will be in the spotlight later on Wednesday. Traders will take more cues from the Fed Chair Press Conference after the policy meeting. Any dovish comments from Fed policymakers could help limit gold’s losses in the near term. Gold steadies as US yields and oil retreat ahead of key FOMC testStrategists at OCBC note that gold’s latest rebound has coincided with a pullback in key macro drivers, as “10y UST yields eased back from near-5% highs, while oil prices also retreated from earlier peaks, helping to temper some of the inflation pressure that had weighed on bullion.” Against this backdrop, the bank “retain[s] a constructive medium-term bias,” but cautions that the “upcoming FOMC [is] now the key test for whether the recovery can extend or the rates headwind reasserts itself.”
Technical Analysis: Gold remains capped under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD extends a pullback after failing to hold the recent highs and now sitting beneath its key trend markers. Spot gold is trading below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and also under the 20-day Bollinger middle band, which suggests the metal is currently capped by medium-term resistance despite the longer-term uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 44.35 has retreated toward neutral territory, hinting that bullish momentum has faded and leaving prices vulnerable to additional downside while those overhead levels remain intact.On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA around $4,330, followed by the 20-day Bollinger SMA at $4,455, with the upper Bollinger band near $4,685, marking a stronger barrier if buyers regain control. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at roughly $4,230 offers the nearest technical support; a clear break below this zone would open the path toward a deeper correction, while a sustained hold above it would keep XAU/USD in a consolidative mode beneath the cited moving-average resistance.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Technical Analysis: Gold remains capped under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD extends a pullback after failing to hold the recent highs and now sitting beneath its key trend markers. Spot gold is trading below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and also under the 20-day Bollinger middle band, which suggests the metal is currently capped by medium-term resistance despite the longer-term uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 44.35 has retreated toward neutral territory, hinting that bullish momentum has faded and leaving prices vulnerable to additional downside while those overhead levels remain intact.On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA around $4,330, followed by the 20-day Bollinger SMA at $4,455, with the upper Bollinger band near $4,685, marking a stronger barrier if buyers regain control. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at roughly $4,230 offers the nearest technical support; a clear break below this zone would open the path toward a deeper correction, while a sustained hold above it would keep XAU/USD in a consolidative mode beneath the cited moving-average resistance.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
01:46 Australian Dollar gets caught between AI selloff and 5% US yields
The Aussie Dollar registered losses of over 0.73% on Monday as sentiment soured due to a fall in technology shares, along with heightened tensions in the Middle East, high energy prices, and a jump in bond yields. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7118, after hitting a high of the day (HOD) of 0.7168.
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The AUD/USD trades at 0.7118, after hitting a high of the day (HOD) of 0.7168.AUD/USD falls as tech weakness, Oil risks and Fed bets lift DollarThe leaders of AI companies in the US expressed concerns about the rapid pace of advances in the industry and called for a slowdown. This triggered a leg lower in US equity markets, while the US Dollar – boosted by the US 10-year T-bond yield past 5% - is poised to end Monday’s session up 0.33%, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY).The DXY, which measures the advance of the American Dollar against its six peers, reclaims the 99.00 level, up 99.46.Geopolitics are playing a big role, following Yemen’s Houthis attack on a Saudi Oil pipeline, which could be shut for several weeks, triggering a shortage of about 7 million barrels per day. Hence, investors' inflation expectations continued to rise following last week's US inflation data, which pushed traders to price in almost a full rate hike by the Fed.Money markets had priced in a 97.50% chance for a 25 basis points rate hike at the September 15-16 Fed meeting.On Monday, the US economic docket was absent, but it would gather pace on Tuesday, with the ADP Employment Change 4-week average.In Australia, the Aussie Dollar is being pressured by a downbeat mood, which has increased the Greenback’s appeal as a haven. However, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence is expected, while some Chinese data, such as Retail Sales, could influence AUD/USD, given Australia's status as one of the largest trading partners in the region.AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookAUD/USD daily chartIn the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7118, maintaining a mildly bullish near-term bias as it holds above the simple moving average triple at 0.7070 and a series of rising trend-line supports clustered between roughly 0.7028 and 0.6902. The Relative Strength Index (14) has retreated toward 46, hinting at easing upside momentum but not yet signaling a decisive bearish shift while price remains supported by these underlying structural levels.On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal barrier near 0.7198, with the upward trend line projected around 0.7364 acting as the next significant cap should bulls extend the advance. On the downside, a move back below the nearby support band formed by the simple moving averages around 0.7070 and the rising trend line at 0.7028 would expose deeper support near 0.6902, while any sustained break lower would leave the prior trend-line break region around 0.6381 as a more distant structural floor.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
01:26 The Euro breaks both its moving averages as the Fed's hike becomes certain
EUR/USD closed near 1.1550 on Monday, 0.42% lower, and beneath both of its moving averages for the first time since late July. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), the chart's two usual reference lines, now sit two pips apart, so the pair fell through one line rather than two.
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The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), the chart's two usual reference lines, now sit two pips apart, so the pair fell through one line rather than two. The Dollar rose against every major currency on the day. Futures tied to the Fed's rate ended it with Wednesday's quarter-point increase priced at 100%, which would be the first American increase since 2023. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its own rate last Thursday, and the Euro has fallen in every session since.The forecast that justified the hike has a cheaper barrel in itThe ECB raised its deposit rate, the rate it pays banks on the cash they park with it overnight, to 2.50% on September 10. It was the second increase of the year, and the decision was unanimous. The statement said inflation will stay well above target for an extended period. The staff forecast published alongside has inflation peaking at 3.6% in the fourth quarter and back at 2.5% by the middle of next year. That path rests on a Crude Oil price assumption fixed on August 19: Brent averaging $88 a barrel this quarter and $78 next year. Brent has traded above $100 since the week the forecast came out, and above $105 on Monday.For the Euro the assumption matters more than the hike. Europe imports nearly all of the Crude Oil it burns and pays for it in Dollars. Every $10 added to the barrel is Euros sold to buy the Dollars that settle the invoice, before any rate decision is made. The same forecast assumes the Euro at 1.16 against the Dollar through 2028. Monday's close was half a cent beneath it.Both rate paths add the same three or four hikesFutures tied to the Fed's rate put Wednesday's increase to 3.75% to 4.00% at 100%, with a second by December and a rate near 4.55% by next July. That is almost a full point above today's. The same futures put the ECB's next increase at 78% for October 29 and its deposit rate near 3.40% by next September, just under a point above today's. Both banks are priced for three or four increases, so the gap between what Dollars and Euros pay a year from now is the gap today, plus four hundredths.The rate gap did not sell the Euro on Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% for the first time since 2023, and Crude Oil spent the London morning at a four-month high. Both are prices paid in Dollars, and a Euro that has to buy Dollars for its fuel bill is sold on the days the Dollar is dear for other reasons too. The committee's own June forecast had the Fed's rate at 3.8% for the end of this year and 3.6% for next. The market has priced almost a full point more for 2027 than the committee wrote down three months ago. Wednesday's new projections are where the two versions meet, and only one of them can move the Dollar.An ECB president at 17:00 GMT and a Fed decision at 18:00Tuesday brings the ZEW survey of financial analysts at 09:00 GMT, forecast at 39.9 after 31.4, and an ECB board member's speech at 14:00. Wednesday opens with Eurozone industrial production at 09:00 GMT, forecast down 0.4% in July after a flat June. American retail sales follow at 12:30 GMT, forecast up 0.9% in August after a 0.6% fall. Retail sales are counted in dollars, and August's gasoline cost more than July's, so the headline will flatter. The control group, which strips out fuel, cars and building materials, is the number the Fed reads before it votes five and a half hours later.The ECB president speaks at 17:00 GMT on Wednesday, the Fed announces at 18:00 and its chair follows at 18:30. Thursday brings the ECB's chief economist at 07:00 GMT and the final August inflation reading at 09:00, forecast unchanged at 2.4% on the core measure. The ECB's rate increase from last week takes effect on Wednesday, September 16, the day the Fed votes on its own.The map into WednesdayResistance: The two averages near 1.1570 are the cap, two pips apart and the line the pair closed beneath on Monday. Above them 1.1600 is the level the pair traded around for two weeks and closed beneath on Friday, and the September high short of 1.1650 sits behind it.Support: Monday's low just above 1.1500 is the first mark, with the early-August base at 1.1500 beneath it. Under that, 1.1450 is the next level the case reaches.Bias: Lower while 1.1600 caps, with 1.1500 the first objective and 1.1450 the second. Monday's close beneath both averages is the first since late July, and the daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI), a momentum gauge, sits near 18 and is still falling. The move is stretched rather than finished. Invalidation is a daily close back above 1.1600, which puts the pair back on top of both averages.EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
01:06 The Pound tests an August low on the Fed's hike odds
GBP/USD closed just beneath 1.3500 on Monday, 0.19% lower, after trading to its lowest since August 14 in the London morning and buying back half of the drop by the close.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD tests its lowest since August 14 on Fed hike odds and climbs back, down 0.19%.Rate futures price Thursday's Bank of England increase at 47% and December's at 95%.Unemployment is forecast at 5% on Tuesday and inflation at 3.1% on Wednesday.GBP/USD closed just beneath 1.3500 on Monday, 0.19% lower, after trading to its lowest since August 14 in the London morning and buying back half of the drop by the close. The Dollar rose against every major currency on the day as futures priced Wednesday's Fed increase at 100% and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% for the first time since 2023. The Pound gave up less than the Euro did. The nine members of the Bank of England's rate committee vote on Wednesday and publish on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. They will decide before the Fed announces and tell the market after it has.Tuesday argues for a hold, Wednesday argues for a hike, and the committee gets bothThe labour market report at 06:00 GMT on Tuesday is forecast to show unemployment at 5% in the three months to July, up from 4.9%. The claimant count is forecast to rise 8.3K in August after an 11K fall, and pay growth including bonuses to slow to 3.9% from 4.1%. The inflation report at 06:00 GMT on Wednesday is forecast at 3.1% for August, up from 2.9%, with the core rate at 2.7% and the retail price index at 3.5%. One report says the economy is cooling and the other says prices are not.July's vote was six to hold and three for an increase to 4.00%, and the forecast for Thursday is the same 6-3. For the Pound the count matters more than the rate. Futures price an increase at 47% for Thursday and 95% by December 17. Thursday decides the date rather than the direction, and a fourth vote for a hike moves the date forward. The market has spent a month deciding whether the increase comes before or after the American one. The committee will decide that on Wednesday without knowing.The Fed out-pays the Bank from Wednesday evening, for one day or for seven weeksAmerican overnight money costs 3.63% today and British overnight money 3.73%, and Wednesday's increase at 18:00 GMT takes the American rate to about 3.88%. That puts the Dollar's overnight rate above the Pound's for the first time since October. Thursday's vote at 11:00 GMT decides whether that lasts one day or until the next meeting on November 5. A currency pair trades on that gap. For 17 hours this week it will favour the Dollar by a little more than a tenth of a point, with the Pound's answer still sealed.The other vote on Thursday sets the pace at which the Bank sells the government bonds it bought between 2009 and 2021. The market expects the annual run-off to fall to £50 billion from £70 billion. Almost all of the reduction is bonds maturing rather than bonds sold: active sales drop to £19.5 billion from £21 billion, and several forecasters expect the Bank to stop selling long-dated bonds altogether. Gilt yields are the return a foreign holder of Pounds earns, and the Bank's own estimate is that the sales programme has added a quarter of a point to them. The slowdown the market has priced removes £1.5 billion of selling from a programme worth a quarter of a point.Three British reports at 06:00 GMT and one American decision at 18:00The Fed's increase to 3.75% to 4.00% is priced at 100% for 18:00 GMT on Wednesday, so the Dollar cannot be paid for it again. The projections published with it can pay. The committee's June forecast had its rate at 3.8% for the end of this year and 3.6% for next. Futures have 4.18% and 4.55%, so the market is almost a full point above the committee for 2027. American retail sales at 12:30 GMT the same day are forecast up 0.9% in August after a 0.6% fall. The control group, which strips out fuel, cars and building materials, tells the committee how much of that was gasoline.Friday closes the week with British retail sales at 06:00 GMT, forecast down 0.2% in August after a 0.5% fall, a Fed governor's speech at 07:30 and American industrial production at 13:15. Britain's side of the week is three reports and two votes, and the only item on either side already priced at 100% is the American one.The map into ThursdayResistance: The September highs just above 1.3550 have capped every rally since August 31 and are the cap this week. A daily close above 1.3600 reopens the August 21 peak short of 1.3700.Support: Monday's low just above 1.3450 is the first mark, beneath the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3500. The pair traded through the average in the morning and closed back above it by seven pips. Under 1.3450 the mid-August low just above 1.3400 carries the case.Bias: Lower while the September highs just above 1.3550 cap, with 1.3450 the first objective and 1.3400 the second. The daily Stochastic Relative Strength Index (Stoch RSI), a momentum gauge, sits near 16, its weakest reading since April. The pair is stretched, and Monday's recovery from the low is what a stretched market does before it resumes. Invalidation is a daily close above 1.3600, which puts the August range back in play.GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
00:56 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bears circle 207.00 as RSI rebounds
The GBP/JPY cross-pair rises over 0.12% and trades at around 208.30 as risk appetite shifts to the sour side due to a rise in energy prices and bond yields, as investors grow uneasy about a possible reacceleration of inflation ahead of three monetary policy decisions by major central banks.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/JPY steadies near 208.30 as bearish trend remains intact.RSI clears oversold, hinting buyers may attempt stabilization.Break below 207.00 exposes 202.34 and 200.00 support.The GBP/JPY cross-pair rises over 0.12% and trades at around 208.30 as risk appetite shifts to the sour side due to a rise in energy prices and bond yields, as investors grow uneasy about a possible reacceleration of inflation ahead of three monetary policy decisions by major central banks.GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe Pound Yen seems poised to consolidate further near the monthly lows of 207.00, following intervention by Japanese authorities in the FX markets. Worth noting that the trend is downwards, and if the cross tumbles below 207.00, the next area of interest would become the November 14 swing low of 202.34, ahead of the 200.00 milestone.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish but has pierced above the 30 oversold level, indicating that buyers are stepping in.If GBP/JPY crosses above the September 11 swing high of 208.92, it clears the way to challenge 209.00, followed by the 210.00 figure.GBP/JPY Price Chart – DailyGBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.03% -0.02% 0.00% -0.02% 0.02% -0.06% -0.02% EUR 0.03% 0.01% 0.02% -0.02% 0.00% 0.08% -0.01% GBP 0.02% -0.01% 0.02% -0.02% 0.01% 0.04% 0.02% JPY 0.00% -0.02% -0.02% -0.01% -0.07% 0.22% 0.00% CAD 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.01% -0.02% 0.22% -0.01% AUD -0.02% 0.00% -0.01% 0.07% 0.02% 0.00% -0.04% NZD 0.06% -0.08% -0.04% -0.22% -0.22% -0.00% -0.01% CHF 0.02% 0.01% -0.02% -0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
00:39 New Zealand Dollar sinks to two-month low as Greenback firms
NZD/USD trades lower on Tuesday, changing hands near 0.5780, down around 0.6% on the day. The pair has slipped below 0.5760 to its lowest level since mid-July, after giving back ground overnight from a session high near 0.5820.
The Kiwi has dropped to its lowest since mid-July as the US Dollar firms on Fed hike bets.China, New Zealand's largest trading partner, reports August Industrial Production and Retail Sales on Tuesday.A soft Chinese read would add to the pressure, while a firmer one is the Kiwi's best near-term hope for relief.NZD/USD trades lower on Tuesday, changing hands near 0.5780, down around 0.6% on the day. The pair has slipped below 0.5760 to its lowest level since mid-July, after giving back ground overnight from a session high near 0.5820.In the United States (US), markets are heavily positioned for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this week, driving a bid in the US Dollar (USD), alongside higher US Treasury yields. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), one of the most sensitive majors to shifts in risk appetite, has taken the brunt.On the other side of the pond, China will release August Industrial Production and Retail Sales later in the day, with production expected to pick up to 4.8% from 4.5% and retail sales also expected to firm. A firmer set, especially an industrial production rebound, could give the Kiwi a floor and some relief from Dollar-driven selling. A soft read would do the opposite, compounding the pressure and leaving the pair exposed toward the 0.5750 area, where Monday's low sits.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5778, keeping a bearish near-term bias as price holds beneath both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5811 and the 100-period SMA at 0.5890. The pair is pressing the lower end of the recent range, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 30.8 hints at emerging oversold conditions that could slow the downside rather than trigger a sustained recovery while these moving averages remain overhead as resistance.On the topside, initial resistance is seen at 0.5781, followed by 0.5790, with the 20-period SMA at 0.5811 reinforcing a broader cap ahead of the 100-period SMA at 0.5890 and subsequent horizontal barriers at 0.5907, 0.5930 and 0.5965. On the downside, immediate support is located at 0.5772, with a break exposing the next structural floor at 0.5766, and only a decisive move back above the clustered resistance band would ease the current bearish pressure.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5778, keeping a bearish near-term bias as price holds beneath both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5811 and the 100-period SMA at 0.5890. The pair is pressing the lower end of the recent range, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 30.8 hints at emerging oversold conditions that could slow the downside rather than trigger a sustained recovery while these moving averages remain overhead as resistance.On the topside, initial resistance is seen at 0.5781, followed by 0.5790, with the 20-period SMA at 0.5811 reinforcing a broader cap ahead of the 100-period SMA at 0.5890 and subsequent horizontal barriers at 0.5907, 0.5930 and 0.5965. On the downside, immediate support is located at 0.5772, with a break exposing the next structural floor at 0.5766, and only a decisive move back above the clustered resistance band would ease the current bearish pressure.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
00:00 Japanese Yen recedes as Fed and BoJ decisions loom
USD/JPY is trading higher on Monday near 154.40, after touching an intraday high just shy of 155.00.
The USD/JPY pair recovers as the US Dollar firms on near-certain Fed hike bets.The rebound comes off a roughly seven-month low around 153.00 struck last week.Both of this week's central bank meetings lean hawkish.USD/JPY is trading higher on Monday near 154.40, after touching an intraday high just shy of 155.00. Markets are now heavily positioned for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike on Wednesday, with the odds up near 90% after hot August inflation data. That repricing has pushed United States (US) Treasury yields higher with the 10-year reaching its highest yield in three years on Monday. A wider US-Japan yield gap pulls flows back toward the US Dollar. Higher Oil prices add to the picture, lifting US inflation expectations and yields while worsening Japan's trade balance.On the Japanese side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets Friday, and a 25-basis-point hike is fully priced in. Because so much of that is already priced in, the Yen drew no fresh buying today, which let the US Dollar run. But it also puts a floor under the Yen and caps how far the pair can climb.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 154.38, holding a modest bullish bias as it stays above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 154.04 and the nearby horizontal floor at 153.99. However, the advance is capped in the short term by initial resistance at 154.42, with further barriers stacked at 154.58 and 155.00, while the longer-term 100-period SMA at 157.12 remains a distant ceiling. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 51 suggests neutral momentum, hinting at consolidation before a clearer directional break.On the topside, a sustained move above 154.42 would open the way toward 154.58, ahead of the 155.00 psychological level, where selling interest could re-emerge before the broader resistance defined by the 100-period SMA at 157.12. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-period SMA at 154.04, followed by the horizontal level at 153.99; a drop below this cluster would weaken the bullish tone and expose deeper corrective risk on the pair.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 154.38, holding a modest bullish bias as it stays above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 154.04 and the nearby horizontal floor at 153.99. However, the advance is capped in the short term by initial resistance at 154.42, with further barriers stacked at 154.58 and 155.00, while the longer-term 100-period SMA at 157.12 remains a distant ceiling. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 51 suggests neutral momentum, hinting at consolidation before a clearer directional break.On the topside, a sustained move above 154.42 would open the way toward 154.58, ahead of the 155.00 psychological level, where selling interest could re-emerge before the broader resistance defined by the 100-period SMA at 157.12. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-period SMA at 154.04, followed by the horizontal level at 153.99; a drop below this cluster would weaken the bullish tone and expose deeper corrective risk on the pair.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
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