ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex
11:12 Oil: War risks keep prices elevated – Rabobank
Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen highlights that Oil prices have reached their highest level since April as markets focus on potential renewed escalation in the US-Iran conflict after US midterm elections.
Rabobank's Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen highlights that Oil prices have reached their highest level since April as markets focus on potential renewed escalation in the US-Iran conflict after US midterm elections. Rabobank strategists expect possible US, Israeli and coalition strikes on Iran and the Houthis, with associated attacks on Gulf countries, supporting higher refined product price forecasts and persistent energy inflation.War scenarios underpin higher energy prices"But all eyes are increasingly turning to the US midterm elections next week, and the risk of renewed escalation of the US-Iran war after the polls have closed. Oil prices rose to the highest level since April as evidence builds of possible new US strikes on Iran.""As our global and energy strategists write, we assume the US, Israel, and a broader Arab and European coalition are likely to attack Iran and the Houthis and to defend Saudi Arabia. If such an escalation happens, Iran and the Houthis would probably attack the Gulf countries and potentially Egypt. This fighting could last until the end of 2027Q1 at varying intensity.""That will contribute to elevated oil prices. Our main concerns remain diesel and marine fuel oils. Between the wars in Iran and Ukraine, nearly 12% of the world's refining capacity for making gasoline, diesel and other fuels is offline.""Inventory declines will be even steeper if we see double escalation in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and it looks like the only path forward to lower prices and rising inventories is double de-escalation in both Russia-Ukraine and the U.S.-Iran wars. This is the basis for revising our refined products forecasts higher.""So, energy inflation is bound to stay high for some time. President Lagarde admitted that inflation will stay well above target in the coming quarters."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
11:09 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: DXY struggles near 101.75 amid falling bond yields
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, extends the post-FOMC retracement slide for the third straight day, dropping to the lower end of its weekly range on Friday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}DXY attracts sellers for the third straight day amid declining bond yields and Iran diplomacy hopes.Geopolitical uncertainties and Fed rate hike bets could lend some support and help limit losses.The constructive technical setup backs the case for the emergence of dip-buyers at lower levels.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, extends the post-FOMC retracement slide for the third straight day, dropping to the lower end of its weekly range on Friday. The index trades near the 101.70-101.65 area, down around 0.20% for the day during the first half of the European session and seems poised to end in the red for the third week in a row amid mixed fundamental cues.US Treasury yields tumbled as investors rushed into safe-haven government bonds after weak tech earnings raised concerns that the massive AI spending may not deliver sufficient returns. Moreover, reviving hopes for a diplomatic solution to end Middle East conflicts undermine the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). However, escalating hostilities between the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, along with threats from the US and Israel to restart attacks after the US midterm elections, keep the geopolitical risk premium in play. Adding to this, bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates again in December could act as a tailwind for the DXY and help limit deeper losses.From a technical perspective, intraday weakness below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the August-October upswing favors bearish traders and backs the case for further depreciation. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has now slipped below zero with a negative histogram, suggesting that the upside momentum is moderating. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 50 hints at some near-term consolidation after prior overbought readings rather than a decisive reversal. Hence, any subsequent slide could find support at the 38.2% retracement at 101.28, ahead of the 50% level at 100.77, reinforced by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) SMA at 100.66.Deeper pullbacks would likely find buying interest around the 61.8% retracement at 100.26, which, if broken, would expose the 78.6% level at 99.53 and the Fibonacci anchor at 98.60. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 101.91, with a stronger hurdle at the cycle high around the 103.00 neighborhood.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)DXY daily chart US Dollar Price This Month The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 1.26% -1.10% -0.02% -1.86% -1.17% -0.23% -1.64% EUR -1.26% -2.33% -1.29% -3.09% -2.42% -1.47% -2.85% GBP 1.10% 2.33% 1.06% -0.77% -0.12% 0.88% -0.46% JPY 0.02% 1.29% -1.06% -1.86% -1.17% -0.15% -1.58% CAD 1.86% 3.09% 0.77% 1.86% 0.70% 1.73% 0.24% AUD 1.17% 2.42% 0.12% 1.17% -0.70% 0.96% -0.41% NZD 0.23% 1.47% -0.88% 0.15% -1.73% -0.96% -1.40% CHF 1.64% 2.85% 0.46% 1.58% -0.24% 0.41% 1.40% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
11:04 British Pound tests six-week highs as traders brace for BoE tightening
The British Pound (GBP) rallies for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, following a soothing UK budget earlier this week, with the focus on a widely expected interet rate hike by the Bank of England next week.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD rallies for the third consecutive day and reaches six-week highs at the 1.3420 area.UK Gilt yields dropped, and the Pound accelerated its recovery after the release of the UK's 2026 budget.Hopes of a BoE rate hike next week are providing additional support to the GBP.The British Pound (GBP) rallies for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, following a soothing UK budget earlier this week, with the focus on a widely expected interet rate hike by the Bank of England next week. The GBP/USD pair is pushing against six-week highs around 1.3420 as of writing, on track to complete a three-week rally.UK Nationwide Housing Prices remained flat in October, according to data released on Friday, beating expectations of a 0.2% contraction and following a 0.3% decline in September.UK budget calmed markets and sent the Pound rallyingPound traders keep celebrating a neutral UK budget, which had triggered some anxiety amid the high public debt and the turmoil in bond markets. The budget seems to have calmed markets, at least for now. The yield of the UK 10-year bond has dropped nearly 10 basis points since Wednesday, the day when the budget was released, which has provided a fresh boost to the Sterling.Investors' focus has shifted to the Bank of England, which will release its monetary policy decision next week. Recent macroeconomic data revealed that the UK economy keeps growing, while inflation remains well above the bank’s target, which has prompted markets to nearly fully price in a 25-basis-points rate hike next week.Regarding the USD, Analysts at ING warn about the US midterm elections risk: “A Democratic sweep is trading around 68% in prediction markets,” which, according to the experts, “could be seen as slightly negative for the US dollar from a few angles,” ranging from “higher risk of government shutdown and gridlock on debt ceiling negotiations” to “potential damage to already shaky AI-related sentiment.” Against that backdrop, ING concludes that they “would be cautious in chasing the USD upside in the next few days.” BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound? The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling? When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound? In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
11:01 Germany’s flash Q3 GDP growth remains 0.2%, beats 0.1% estimates
German preliminary Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data arrives at 0.2%, Federal Statistics Office of Germany showed. The growth rate was higher than 0.1% estimates.
German preliminary Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data arrives at 0.2%, Federal Statistics Office of Germany showed. The growth rate was higher than 0.1% estimates.
10:52 British Pound: Upward momentum building against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue report that GBP/USD has rebounded strongly from recent lows, invalidating earlier downside bias. The British Pound (GBP) is now expected to grind higher toward nearby resistance, though gains are seen as gradual and conditional on holding key support levels, with a clearer push to higher targets requiring a decisive break of initial caps.
United Overseas Bank strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue report that GBP/USD has rebounded strongly from recent lows, invalidating earlier downside bias. The British Pound (GBP) is now expected to grind higher toward nearby resistance, though gains are seen as gradual and conditional on holding key support levels, with a clearer push to higher targets requiring a decisive break of initial caps.
Pound targets 1.3420 then 1.3450
"24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, GBP declined to a low of 1.3274 and then rebounded strongly. When GBP was at 1.3330 yesterday, we pointed out that “the immediate downward pressure has eased.” We highlighted that GBP “is likely to range-trade between 1.3295 and 1.3350.” GBP subsequently dipped to 1.3299 before staging a sharp rise, reaching a high of 1.3383. While the sharp rise appears excessive, GBP could continue to rise and test 1.3420. The next resistance at 1.3450 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 1.3355; a breach of 1.3340 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Two days ago (28 Oct, spot at 1.3310), we highlighted that “the bias for GBP is on the downside toward 1.3265.” GBP then declined to a low of 1.3274 and rebounded. Yesterday, GBP rebounded further, breaking above our ‘strong resistance’ level at 1.3365. Downward pressure has eased with the break of the ‘strong resistance’ level. Upward momentum is building, albeit tentatively. From here, we expect GBP to rise toward 1.3420. GBP must break clearly above this level before a move to 1.3450 can be expected. To sustain the momentum buildup, GBP must hold above the ‘strong support’ level, now at 1.3310."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
10:30 Japanese Yen: Inflation risks support steady BoJ hikes – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha argues the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will likely keep raising its target rate roughly every quarter, with the next move expected in December.
TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha argues the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will likely keep raising its target rate roughly every quarter, with the next move expected in December. The BoJ now judges inflation to be at its 2% target and is shifting focus toward preventing an overshoot, while still characterizing financial conditions as accommodative and highlighting upside risks from wages, FX and AI-related demand.BoJ at target but not at terminal"Today's Statement reaffirms our view the BoJ is likely to continue raising the target rate roughly every quarter with the next hike to land in December. The Bank's focus has shifted from achieving the inflation target to preventing an overshoot and the forecasts reinforce this stance. The labour market, FX developments, and AI will be key factors shaping views on the terminal rate.""So even with underlying inflation already at target, the Bank repeats what it said in July and September: “the Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation”.""Very simply the BoJ is saying that labour market conditions have tightened by more than can be explained by the output gap. This will have implications for discussions about the neutral/ terminal rate. It's part of the reason why we are more hawkish than the street's forecast for the BoJ.""However, with the tech sector coming under pressure in recent weeks, the clear risk to our 2.25% terminal rate forecast is a slowdown in AI spend. Such a slowdown would shave growth expectations and price pressures, lowering expectations for the terminal rate."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
10:27 Euro retreats from day’s high as US Dollar rebounds, German HICP data awaited
The Euro (EUR) gives back a majority of its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The EUR/USD pair corrects after failing to extend gains above 1.1215, but is still 0.11% higher at around 1.1188 in the European trade.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Euro corrects from 1.1215 to near 1.1188 as the US Dollar regains ground.US GDP growth remained stronger-than-projected in the July-September period.Investors keenly await the flash German HICP data for October.The Euro (EUR) gives back a majority of its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The EUR/USD pair corrects after failing to extend gains above 1.1215, but is still 0.11% higher at around 1.1188 in the European trade.The pair retreats as the US Dollar claws back a majority of its early losses, as the combination of strong United States (US) economic growth and high inflation fears has strengthened the case of Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hike in December.As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% down to near 101.72, but has recovered from its day’s low of 101.59.On Thursday, the US preliminary Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data came in stronger-than-expected. Economists at Commerzbank highlight that the US economy “expanded strongly by 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026,” with the Q3 GDP advance estimate coming in at “3.4% qoq annualised (Bloomberg consensus: 3.2%) vs 2.2% in Q2.” They note that “private consumption was the main driver and expanded 3.8%, at the same pace as Q2,” while “business investment, particularly in IT,” also contributed significantly to the robust outturn.Meanwhile, the US core PCE Inflation, which strips of volatile food and energy items, and is a Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, grew by 3.1% Year-on-Year (YoY), in line with expectations, and faster than the August reading of 3%.On the Euro front, investors await the preliminary German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for October, which will be published at 13:00 GMT. The headline HICP growth in Germany is expected to have cooled down to 3.1% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.3% in September.EUR/USD Technical AnalysisIn the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1199, keeping a mildly bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1223. The pair’s inability to reclaim this short-term EMA suggests upside remains capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 stays below the neutral 50 mark, hinting at subdued bullish momentum despite the recent stabilization off oversold readings.On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-period EMA around 1.1223, where sustained rejection would likely maintain the downside bias and favor further consolidation or a retest of recent lows. A clear daily close above this moving average would be needed to ease bearish pressure and open the way for a stronger corrective recovery, with momentum indicators then likely to strengthen in tandem.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Economic Indicator Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Next release: Fri Oct 30, 2026 13:00 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 3.1% Previous: 3.3% Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
10:19 Euro edges higher against the Japanese Yen following BoJ monetary policy decision
The Euro (EUR) extends gains for the third consecutive day against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday, as investors ponder the cautious tone of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy statement.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/JPY ticks up to the 176.40 area, approaching weekly highs at 176.60.The Bank of Japan left interest rates on hold and cast doubt on a December rate hike.In Europe, German import prices and France's CPI beat expectations in September.The Euro (EUR) extends gains for the third consecutive day against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday, as investors ponder the cautious tone of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy statement. The EUR/JPY trades at 176.40 at the time of writing, with the weekly high of 176.60 on sight, although it remains practically flat on the weekly chart.The BoJ met expectations and left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.25% after its monetary policy meeting on Friday. The bank’s statement affirmed that underlying inflation has reached the 2% target and projected a median core CPI of 2.5% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027.The statement also reinforced the bank’s commitment to keep inflation anchored but showed a cautious tone on further interest rate hikes, conditioning them on developments in FX markets, AI and the Middle East. This stance was echoed at Governor Kazuho Ueda’s press conference, and triggered a slight JPY pullback against its main peers.Inflation grows beyond expectations in Germany and FranceIn the Eurozone, the German Import Price Index beat expectations in September with a 2.1% advance and a 10.4% year-on-year gain from 1% and 8.3% respective increases in August.France’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), released shortly afterwards, has shown a similar outcome, with monthly inflation growing 0.4% after a 0.3% contraction in August and the yearly rate accelerating to 3.8% from 3.4%, above the 3.6% market consensus.On Thursday, the European Central Bank left interest rates on hold, as expected, and President Christine Lagarde announced an early exit in February 2027. The bank stated that energy prices keep boosting inflation and hampering economic growth but also observed that financial conditions "have tightened since the Governing Council's last meeting, which is likely to weigh on inflation and growth." The Euro edged up against its main peers following the event. Economic Indicator Import Price Index (MoM) Import price index, reported by Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), measures the change in prices for goods imported by Germany . The Import Price Index is important in distinguishing changes in trade volume versus changes in trade prices. Whereas growth in import volume suggests stronger consumer demand and economic expansion, growth in import prices suggests higher production costs and inflationary pressures. Read more. Last release: Fri Oct 30, 2026 07:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2.1% Consensus: 1.8% Previous: 1% Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) The Consumer Price Index released by INSEE is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of the Euro is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Euro, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Fri Oct 30, 2026 07:45 (Prel) Frequency: Monthly Actual: 0.4% Consensus: 0.3% Previous: -0.3% Source: INSEE
10:19 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Advances above 211.00, over one-week as JPY softens after BoJ
The GBP/JPY cross attracts some dip-buyers near the 210.60-210.55 region on Friday, turning positive for the third straight day and advancing to an over one-week high during the early part of the European session.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/JPY turns positive for the third straight day amid the post-BoJ downtick in the JPY.Firming BoE rate hike expectations underpin the GBP, contributing to the intraday rise.The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets.The GBP/JPY cross attracts some dip-buyers near the 210.60-210.55 region on Friday, turning positive for the third straight day and advancing to an over one-week high during the early part of the European session. Spot prices currently trade around the 211.25-211.30 area, up nearly 0.15% for the day, and remain on track to register modest weekly gains.The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained briefly after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its main rate at 1.25% in a widely anticipated move, but left the door open for future hikes. The initial market reaction, however, turns out to be short-lived as BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda refrained from offering fresh and definitive clues on the exact timing of the next move. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues to be underpinned by hawkish Bank of England (BoE) expectations, offering additional support to the GBP/JPY cross.From a technical perspective, an intraday move beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level backs the case for additional gains. Moreover, oscillators show constructive momentum, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) staying in positive territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 56. This improving tone, however, only hints at upside attempts rather than a clear trend shift, while the GBP/JPY cross remains below the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).Meanwhile, any subsequent move up might confront initial resistance at the 50% retracement at 212.20. This is followed by the 200-day SMA at 212.91 and the 61.8% retracement at 213.47, with higher barriers seen at 215.26 and 217.55, representing the 78.6% retracement of the recent swing. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 38.2% retracement at 210.94, ahead of the 23.6% level at 209.38, with a deeper structural floor near the cycle low around 206.85.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)GBP/JPY daily chart Pound Sterling Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.16% -0.31% 0.22% -0.61% 0.18% 0.87% -0.34% EUR -0.16% -0.49% 0.00% -0.82% -0.06% 0.65% -0.56% GBP 0.31% 0.49% 0.44% -0.33% 0.43% 1.19% -0.10% JPY -0.22% 0.00% -0.44% -0.77% -0.09% 0.69% -0.65% CAD 0.61% 0.82% 0.33% 0.77% 0.72% 1.41% 0.23% AUD -0.18% 0.06% -0.43% 0.09% -0.72% 0.71% -0.70% NZD -0.87% -0.65% -1.19% -0.69% -1.41% -0.71% -1.23% CHF 0.34% 0.56% 0.10% 0.65% -0.23% 0.70% 1.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
10:13 US Dollar: Midterm risks weigh on Greenback – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that recent pressure on US tech stocks has supported Treasuries and modestly weighed on the Dollar, though underlying demand remains intact with hawkish US data and a still-alert Federal Reserve.
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that recent pressure on US tech stocks has supported Treasuries and modestly weighed on the Dollar, though underlying demand remains intact with hawkish US data and a still-alert Federal Reserve. He highlights US midterm election positioning as a key near-term risk, warning that a potential Democratic sweep could be mildly negative for the Dollar.Election positioning tempers Dollar upside"Fresh pressure on tech stocks has triggered some safe-haven buying in US Treasuries and weighed on the dollar as the front end followed lower. Moves are contained in both equities and FX, but it’s a reminder that the greenback still faces downside risks from oscillating AI sentiment.""At the same time, whenever tech stocks don’t dominate headlines, the dollar has had no trouble attracting buyers, and we don’t think Wednesday’s FOMC changed that. Incidentally, yesterday’s US data was hawkish-leaning, with 3Q growth slightly above consensus at 3.4% and core PCE at 0.3% month-on-month in September – enough to keep the Federal Reserve on high alert.""To us, the main risk for the dollar today is some precautionary unwinding of net-long positions ahead of Tuesday’s US midterm elections. A Democratic sweep is trading around 68% in prediction markets, and that could be seen as slightly negative for the US dollar from a few angles, from higher risk of government shutdown and gridlock on debt ceiling negotiations to potential damage to already shaky AI-related sentiment. We’d be cautious in chasing the USD upside in the next few days.""Meanwhile, resurgent AI-related jitters and the upcoming US midterms are increasing downside risks for the dollar, in our view, although a still-hawkish Fed argues against major corrections."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
10:07 Dow Jones futures fall as tech earnings disappoint, Fed hike bets
Dow Jones futures inches lower 0.05% to trade around 52,490, while S&P 500 futures fall 0.90% to around 7,680 and Nasdaq 100 futures decline over 2% to near 28,960.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}US index futures decline as weak earnings and forecasts from Amazon, Intel, and Alphabet dampened overall market sentiment.Third-quarter GDP grew 3.4%, beating estimates thanks to steady consumer spending and AI investment.The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, with markets pricing a 75% chance of a December hike.Dow Jones futures inches lower 0.05% to trade around 52,490, while S&P 500 futures fall 0.90% to around 7,680 and Nasdaq 100 futures decline over 2% to near 28,960.US stock futures declined sharply as disappointing earnings reports from major technology companies weighed heavily on market sentiment. During pre-market trading, Amazon shares are down over 7% after the company missed both earnings and revenue estimates while announcing a significant increase in capital expenditures to accommodate rising demand for AI services. Intel sank nearly 23% following a weak quarter-ahead forecast, which it attributed to softening demand in the PC market. Meanwhile, SanDisk slipped nearly 4% despite delivering better-than-expected top and bottom-line results.This pre-market weakness follows a losing regular trading session on Thursday, during which the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.38%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 fell 0.25% and 0.3%, respectively. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, plummeted 12.6% after reporting softer search and advertising revenues, amplifying investor concerns about potential AI-driven disruptions to its core business.The broader US economy showed resilient momentum, with US GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter. This surpassed market expectations of 3.2%, fueled largely by consistent consumer spending and heavy investment in AI infrastructure. In light of these macroeconomic conditions, financial markets continue to anticipate further policy tightening. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in roughly a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, down slightly from 84.2% the previous day. AI stocks FAQs What is artificial intelligence? First and foremost, artificial intelligence is an academic discipline that seeks to recreate the cognitive functions, logical understanding, perceptions and pattern recognition of humans in machines. Often abbreviated as AI, artificial intelligence has a number of sub-fields including artificial neural networks, machine learning or predictive analytics, symbolic reasoning, deep learning, natural language processing, speech recognition, image recognition and expert systems. The end goal of the entire field is the creation of artificial general intelligence or AGI. This means producing a machine that can solve arbitrary problems that it has not been trained to solve. What are AI applications? There are a number of different use cases for artificial intelligence. The most well-known of them are generative AI platforms that use training on large language models (LLMs) to answer text-based queries. These include ChatGPT and Google’s Bard platform. Midjourney is a program that generates original images based on user-created text. Other forms of AI utilize probabilistic techniques to determine a quality or perception of an entity, like Upstart’s lending platform, which uses an AI-enhanced credit rating system to determine credit worthiness of applicants by scouring the internet for data related to their career, wealth profile and relationships. Other types of AI use large databases from scientific studies to generate new ideas for possible pharmaceuticals to be tested in laboratories. YouTube, Spotify, Facebook and other content aggregators use AI applications to suggest personalized content to users by collecting and organizing data on their viewing habits. What are some stocks that fit into the AI field? Nvidia (NVDA) is a semiconductor company that builds both the AI-focused computer chips and some of the platforms that AI engineers use to build their applications. Many proponents view Nvidia as the pick-and-shovel play for the AI revolution since it builds the tools needed to carry out further applications of artificial intelligence. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is a “big data” analytics company. It has large contracts with the US intelligence community, which uses its Gotham platform to sift through data and determine intelligence leads and inform on pattern recognition. Its Foundry product is used by major corporations to track employee and customer data for use in predictive analytics and discovering anomalies. Microsoft (MSFT) has a large stake in ChatGPT creator OpenAI, the latter of which has not gone public. Microsoft has integrated OpenAI’s technology with its Bing search engine. Could artificial intelligence generate another stock bubble? Following the introduction of ChatGPT to the general public in late 2022, many stocks associated with AI began to rally. Nvidia for instance advanced well over 200% in the six months following the release. Immediately, pundits on Wall Street began to wonder whether the market was being consumed by another tech bubble. Famous investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has held major investments in both Palantir and Nvidia, said that bubbles never last just six months. He said that if the excitement over AI did become a bubble, then the extreme valuations would last at least two and a half years or long like the DotCom bubble in the late 1990s. At the midpoint of 2023, the best guess is that the market is not in a bubble, at least for now. Yes, Nvidia traded at 27 times forward sales at that time, but analysts were predicting extremely high revenue growth for years to come. At the height of the DotCom bubble, the NASDAQ 100 traded for 60 times earnings, but in mid-2023 the index traded at 25 times earnings.
09:53 Euro: Mixed outlook as ECB weighs energy shock – Commerzbank
Norman Liebke at Commerzbank notes the ECB delivered a widely expected pause, while Christine Lagarde signalled that another rate hike in December remains possible and largely priced in. The Euro’s path beyond December will hinge on energy prices and potential second-round effects on wages and inflation expectations. Higher bond yields already tighten financing conditions, limiting scope for an extended hiking cycle.
Norman Liebke at Commerzbank notes the ECB delivered a widely expected pause, while Christine Lagarde signalled that another rate hike in December remains possible and largely priced in. The Euro’s path beyond December will hinge on energy prices and potential second-round effects on wages and inflation expectations. Higher bond yields already tighten financing conditions, limiting scope for an extended hiking cycle.
ECB pause but December still live
"The ECB delivered the largely expected pause at yesterday’s meeting. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde made it clear that, in light of higher energy prices, the Governing Council had indeed discussed another rate hike. She also left the door open to a third rate increase this year in December."
"Our economists also expect a rate hike at the end of the year. However, the message contained little that was new for markets, as a December hike is already largely priced in and rate expectations changed only marginally following the meeting."
"For the euro, therefore, the more important question is likely to be what happens after December. Much will depend on energy-price developments."
"As things stand, the ECB will probably have to revise its oil and gas price assumptions from the September projections higher in December. The key question, however, is whether the energy-price shock also feeds through to underlying inflation."
"For the euro, the picture therefore remains mixed: if energy prices remain high and signs of second-round effects increase, the market could once again price in more rate hikes, benefiting the euro. If, by contrast, price pressures remain largely confined to energy, the bar for further rate hikes after December is likely to remain high and the euro’s additional upside potential limited, especially as energy inflation is likely to partly decline again next year due to base effects."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
09:52 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD drops to fresh 11-month lows near $50.50
Silver price (XAG/USD) extended its losses for the third successive day, trading around a fresh 11-month low of $50.69 per troy ounce during European hours on Friday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver declined as persistent inflation and strong economic growth heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.Higher September PCE inflation and 3.4% third-quarter GDP growth pointed to continued US economic resilience.Fed rates remained unchanged ahead of midterm elections, with markets pricing a 75% chance of a December hike.Silver price (XAG/USD) extended its losses for the third successive day, trading around a fresh 11-month low of $50.69 per troy ounce during European hours on Friday. Silver prices faced downward pressure as persistent inflation and resilient economic growth in the United States (US) reinforced market expectations of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year.Inflationary pressures were highlighted by the US PCE price index, which increased by 0.5% month-on-month in September, its largest rise since March, pushing annual inflation up to 3.6%, while core PCE inflation climbed to 3.1% year-over-year.Meanwhile, the broader economy demonstrated continued strength, with US GDP expanding at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter. This performance beat market forecasts of 3.2%, driven primarily by steady consumer spending and robust investment in AI-related sectors.In response to these economic conditions, the Federal Reserve opted to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday ahead of the upcoming US midterm elections. Nevertheless, investors continue to price in a strong likelihood of future tightening.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently assigning approximately a 75% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, reflecting a moderate decrease from 84.2% recorded just a day prior.Silver and PGMs lag as macro headwinds bite into demandAccording to TD Securities, the post-FOMC landscape continues to highlight a divergence within the precious metals complex. The bank notes that "while gold remains fairly resilient post-FOMC, industrial precious metals are skewing to the downside, with silver and PGMs materially underperforming as macro headwinds and the prospect of tightening policy weigh on demand outlooks." This underperformance underscores the growing pressure on more industrially exposed metals relative to Gold as investors reassess the demand outlook under a potentially tighter policy regime. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
09:45 France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.3%) in October
09:45 Forex Today: BoJ keeps policy settings unchanged, Gold drops below $4,000
Here is what you need to know on Friday, October 30:
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Here is what you need to know on Friday, October 30:Markets experience some heightened volatility early Friday as investors assess latest central bank decisions, macroeconomic data releases, while keeping a close eye on the action in US stock index futures. Later in the session, preliminary October inflation data from Germany, third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) readings from the Eurozone and third-quarter Employment Cost Index data from the US will be featured in the economic calendar. Moreover, policymakers from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are scheduled to deliver speeches.The ECB left its key rates unchanged following the October meeting on Thursday, as largely anticipated. During the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the Governing Council debated whether a rate hike was appropriate, adding that the headline inflation is expected to remain "well above target" in coming quarters. After falling toward 1.1100, EUR/USD reversed its direction on Lagarde's hawkish tone and closed in positive territory above 1.1150 on Thursday. The pair holds its ground in the European morning on Friday but struggles to clear 1.1200 as the souring risk mood caps the upside.Euro outlook hinges on ECB path beyond DecemberAnalysts at Commerzbank note that the ECB “delivered the largely expected pause” at yesterday’s meeting, but stress that policy remains far from on autopilot. According to the bank, ECB President Christine Lagarde “made it clear that, in light of higher energy prices, the Governing Council had indeed discussed another rate hike” and “left the door open to a third rate increase this year in December.”For the Euro, Commerzbank argues that “the more important question is likely to be what happens after December,” with the currency’s trajectory set to be driven less by the next meeting and more by the broader inflation backdrop. In their view, “much will depend on energy-price developments,” which will be crucial in shaping expectations for the ECB’s policy path.Meanwhile, the data from the United States (US) showed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, surpassing the market expectation for an increase of 3.2%. Additionally, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, increased by 3.1% on a yearly basis in September to match analysts' estimate. Google parent Alphabet shares plunged more than 10% on Thursday and touched its weakest since April after the company noted that artificial intelligence summaries on search were hurting the ad revenue. Moreover, the company reported a negative free cash flow of about $9 billion. In the European morning on Friday, Nasdaq Futures are down about 2% on the day, the US Dollar Index stays flat near 101.80, while the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield remains virtually unchanged on the day below 5% after falling more than 1% on Thursday.During the Asian trading hours, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced that they left the short-term interest rate unchanged at 1.25% following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review meeting. In the post-meeting press conference, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda repeated that they will continue to raise the policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary easing in response to the economic activity, prices and financial condition developments. After falling toward 157.00, USD/JPY regained its traction and was last seen trading virtually unchanged at 157.55. FXS Speechtracker scored Ueda's comments at 7.2/10, slightly below the historic 7.7/10 baseline, and signaling a mildly less confident tone despite clear acknowledgement that underlying CPI inflation is now broadly consistent with the 2% target. The commitment to continue raising the policy rate and to adjust the degree of monetary easing as economic activity, prices and financial conditions evolve marked a modestly hawkish tilt, tempered by repeated emphasis on accommodative financial conditions and government support for growth.After posting marginal gains for three consecutive days, Gold came under heavy bearish pressure on Thursday and lost more than 1%. The precious metal continues to push lower and was last seen trading near $3,980, down about 1% on the day. Gold rebound stalls as OCBC flags limited fresh buying and risk of renewed lowsStrategists at OCBC note that gold’s recent recovery has "despite some easing in US Treasury yields and oil prices.” They highlight that “more notably, Gold’s inability to benefit from lower yields suggests that fresh buying interest remains limited, even as earlier liquidation pressures may be easing.” OCBC adds that “renewed weakness in technology equities also weighed on sentiment as it raises concerns over another bout of broader deleveraging.” Against this backdrop, the bank says, “we remain cautious near term, with further consolidation or another test of recent lows not ruled out,” stressing that Friday’s Employment Cost Index and “the direction of equities, yields and USD will be important to watch.”GBP/USD holds its ground and trades in positive territory near 1.3400 after gaining about 0.4% on Thursday. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
09:43 Australian Dollar: Bias shifts back to neutral against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that AUD/USD has reversed a recent overbought advance, breaking strong support and eroding prior bullish momentum.
United Overseas Bank strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that AUD/USD has reversed a recent overbought advance, breaking strong support and eroding prior bullish momentum. The pair is now expected to consolidate within a defined range, with short-term risks tilted slightly lower, while medium-term signals still point to broader downside potential toward previous multi-month lows.Australian Dollar seen range-bound"24-HOUR VIEW: After AUD rose more than we expected two days ago, we highlighted the following yesterday: “AUD rose more than expected to 0.7065 before settling at 0.7055 (+0.42%). While conditions are overbought, AUD could test 0.7070 today. Given the overbought conditions, a continued rise above this level appears unlikely.” While AUD subsequently rose to 0.7068, it then fell sharply to 0.7015. AUD closed on a soft note at 0.7028 (-0.38%). The slight increase in downward momentum suggests the bias is on the downside today. That said, any decline should stay within a 0.7005/0.7050 range.""1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on AUD in the middle of last week. Yesterday (29 Oct, spot at 0.7025), we highlighted that “while the renewed momentum suggests AUD could move above 0.7070, it is too early to tell whether it can strengthen sufficiently to carry AUD toward 0.7095.” However, after rising to 0.7068, AUD fell and broke below our ‘strong support’ level at 0.7020. Upward momentum has faded, and the outlook for AUD is neutral now. From here, we expect it to trade in a range of 0.6985/0.7070."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
09:26 Equities: Tech-led selloff weighs on risk sentiment – Danske Bank
Danske Research Team describes a weak session for global equities, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Stoxx 600 up 0.8% but tech and communications underperforming. Alphabet fell 13% after disappointing earnings, while Amazon and Intel dropped sharply in aftermarket trading.
Danske Research Team describes a weak session for global equities, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% and the Stoxx 600 up 0.8% but tech and communications underperforming. Alphabet fell 13% after disappointing earnings, while Amazon and Intel dropped sharply in aftermarket trading. They note AI capex scepticism likely returning and Asian indices opening lower.US tech weakness drags global stocks"Equities were lower on Thursday, with the AI trade swinging back into negative territory. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, while the Stoxx 600 continued to rise, gaining 0.8%. Tech and communications were among the worst performers, primarily driven by Alphabet selling off no less than 13% following disappointing earnings and negative cash flow. However, it is worth reiterating that it was the core business that missed, not AI revenues.""Aftermarket trading just as interesting, as the final one of the hyperscalers, Amazon, reported. However, dynamics were similar to Alphabet, with a miss in the core business and somewhat lowered guidance (only -1% below consensus, though) as Amazon expects weaker consumers into holiday season, primarily due to rising energy prices.""The timing is of course unfortunate, with core business weakening all while cash burn accelerated. Except, when it comes to Amazon, the cash burn is in its own league. Free cash flow decreased to an outflow of more than $33bn in Q3 alone. This can be compared to the Q3 EBIT of 17bn, while consensus had expected cash flow to be around breakeven.""As a result, the stock is down more than 7% in the aftermarket and AI capex scepticism will likely come back into markets today. This also goes for the hardware side, with Intel down -20% in the aftermarket, again not driven by AI-related revenues but by a slowing PC market following surging memory prices.""Asian markets dipped into negative territory this morning, with the Kospi down 4% and the Nikkei 225 down 2.5%. US futures indicate an opening around -1%, and Europe -0.5%."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
09:23 Japanese Yen trims gains as Ueda remains vague about the next rate hike
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is giving back previous gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, and Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuho Ueda’s comments have failed to support the Japanese currency.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} USD/JPY returns to the 157.70 area from session lows at 157.12 BoJ Governor Ueda hints at further interest rate hikes but remains vague about the timing.The BoJ left interest rates at 1.25% after its monetary policy meeting, as widely expected.The Japanese Yen (JPY) is giving back previous gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, and Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuho Ueda’s comments have failed to support the Japanese currency. The USD/JPY pair has returned to the 157.70 area from session lows at 157.12, turning flat on the daily chart.
Ueda affirmed earlier on Friday that Japan’s “financial conditions are accommodative” and showed confidence that the economy will keep growing moderately in the near term. Regarding monetary policy, Ueda affirmed that the bank will “continue to raise the policy rate" although he also said that they need to watch the impact of FX, AI and the Middle East.BoJ flags sustained 2% inflation, keeping Yen focus on gradual tighteningThe FXS Speechtracker shows a 7.2/10 score, slightly below the speaker’s historic 7.7/10 average. The emphasis on underlying CPI at a level consistent with the 2% target highlights a modestly hawkish tilt, although the stress on accommodative financial conditions, government support measures, and an outlook of only moderate growth reveals a cautious and data-dependent path rather than aggressive tightening. Previously, the BoJ had left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.25%, as widely expected, and announced that inflation reached the 2% target set in 2013. Looking ahead, the bank sees core inflation steady around levels consistent with the price target while inflation risks will remain skewed to the upside, according to the statement.The US Dollar, on the other hand, is retracing previous losses ahead of the European session opening, as a moderate risk-off mood boosts demand for safe havens. Shares of Google's Alphabet had their worst day on record, with a 12% sell-off on Thursday dragging Asian markets down on Friday, with concerns of an AI bubble crushing investors’ appetite for equities. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Ueda affirmed earlier on Friday that Japan’s “financial conditions are accommodative” and showed confidence that the economy will keep growing moderately in the near term. Regarding monetary policy, Ueda affirmed that the bank will “continue to raise the policy rate" although he also said that they need to watch the impact of FX, AI and the Middle East.BoJ flags sustained 2% inflation, keeping Yen focus on gradual tighteningThe FXS Speechtracker shows a 7.2/10 score, slightly below the speaker’s historic 7.7/10 average. The emphasis on underlying CPI at a level consistent with the 2% target highlights a modestly hawkish tilt, although the stress on accommodative financial conditions, government support measures, and an outlook of only moderate growth reveals a cautious and data-dependent path rather than aggressive tightening. Previously, the BoJ had left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.25%, as widely expected, and announced that inflation reached the 2% target set in 2013. Looking ahead, the bank sees core inflation steady around levels consistent with the price target while inflation risks will remain skewed to the upside, according to the statement.The US Dollar, on the other hand, is retracing previous losses ahead of the European session opening, as a moderate risk-off mood boosts demand for safe havens. Shares of Google's Alphabet had their worst day on record, with a 12% sell-off on Thursday dragging Asian markets down on Friday, with concerns of an AI bubble crushing investors’ appetite for equities. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
09:19 West Texas Intermediate trades near $102.00 after pulling back from five-month highs
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices have pared their daily gains, trading around $102.20 per barrel in early European hours on Friday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI declined after reaching a five-month high of 104.00 on Friday.Oil supply concerns ease on reports of direct US diplomatic outreach to Iran aimed at restarting peace talks.Threats of resumed US airstrikes after upcoming midterm elections continue to provide underlying support for oil prices.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices have pared their daily gains, trading around $102.20 per barrel in early European hours on Friday. Crude oil prices pulled back from a five-month high of 104.00, reached during earlier hours, as renewed diplomatic efforts in the Middle East help ease pressure on global energy markets.Wall Street Journal report disclosed that US Vice President JD Vance reached out to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in an effort to restart peace talks. US President Donald Trump confirmed he approved Vance's diplomatic outreach, adding that Iran needs assistance with medical supplies and other essential resources.However, oil prices could still find upward support as the US considers resuming military strikes against Iran. A senior commander recently briefed President Trump on potential military options, and Trump has repeatedly warned that airstrikes on Tehran could resume following the upcoming midterm elections.Despite recent diplomatic movements, the US oil benchmark has gained nearly 14% in October as the US-Iran conflict persists and clashes involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces intensify. While threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain high, with tankers continuing to face attacks, regional crude exports have managed to rebound to near prewar levels as producers discreetly transport oil cargoes through the strategically important waterway.Crude sentiment softens as TD Securities flags drag from deal headlinesAccording to TD Securities, the crude complex remains under pressure as "persistent headlines of deal talks are weighing on the crude oil market," with ongoing news flow around potential agreements dampening bullish momentum even as underlying fundamentals stay in focus. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
09:11 Euro softens against British Pound, traders await Germany and Eurozone GDP data
The EUR/GBP cross edges lower to around 0.8345 during the early European trading hours on Friday, pressured by divergent monetary policies. Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary readings of Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from Germany and the Eurozone later on Friday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/GBP declines to near 0.8345 in Friday’s early European session.ECB kept the key interest rate on hold at 2.5% at its October meeting.BoE is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 4.00% next Thursday.The EUR/GBP cross edges lower to around 0.8345 during the early European trading hours on Friday, pressured by divergent monetary policies. Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary readings of Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from Germany and the Eurozone later on Friday.As widely expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) left its deposit rate at 2.50% at the October policy meeting on Thursday, following a rate hike by 25 basis points (bps) in September. According to a statement, the Governing Council said that rising energy prices posed upside risks to the inflation outlook and downside risks to growth, but that underlying inflation and wages were so far broadly stable.Money markets were pricing in around a 67% probability of a rate increase in December following the announcement, according to LSEG data.Traders continue to assess the UK Autumn Budget and look ahead to upcoming Bank of England (BoE) decisions. The United Kingdom (UK) set out a target date for defense spending to rise to 3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as the Finance Minister John Healey announced billions in aid for Ukraine in a “clear message to Moscow.” Healey on Wednesday set a target date of 2030 for the 3% figure while reaffirming its NATO commitment to reach 3.5% by 2035.The BoE is likely to lift its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 4.00% at its upcoming policy meeting next Thursday. This anticipated hike will break an 11-month rate hold at 3.75%.UK budget eyed as gilt risk premium and EUR/GBP drift come into focusAccording to ING, some of the recent underperformance in UK government bonds may be vulnerable to a retracement around the budget announcement. ING's Rates Strategist, Michiel Tukker, estimates that there is a "20bp risk premium in 10-year UK gilt yields – some of which could come out of the market during today's UK budget release." The bank argues that the budget itself "is not expected to have too much say on the Bank of England's tightening prospects," although it cautions that "any upside surprises on minimum wage adjustments could hawkishly ripple through money markets."ING adds that "some narrowing in the gilt-bund spread today could be a reminder that the UK looks to be one of the few G7 economies heading in the right fiscal direction into 2027," with forecasts for the budget deficit "heading inside 4% of GDP as higher inflation drags more income tax payers into higher tax brackets." On the currency side, ING notes that "EUR/GBP is holding above 0.8350 support and is looking heavy." Barring "any surprise budget giveaways that hit gilts," the bank believes "it looks as though EUR/GBP can stay heavy and potentially nudge down to the 0.8315 area."Lagarde flags upside inflation risks but sticks to measured Euro stanceThe FXS Speechtracker score of 6.2/10 is marginally above the speaker’s historic 6.1/10 baseline, reflecting a slightly more impactful but still balanced communication. Lagarde acknowledged that the Euro area economy is expanding in Q3 and that near-term growth should be underpinned by AI investment, government spending and improving exports, but stressed that risks to growth are to the downside as renewed energy price increases, tighter financial conditions and fiscal uncertainty weigh on confidence.On inflation, the tone is clearly hawkish: energy prices have risen beyond the baseline, headline inflation is expected to stay well above target in coming quarters, and risks to inflation are to the upside, even as longer-term expectations remain around 2% and the ECB wage tracker points to 2.5%-2.8% wage growth. Yet the decision to hold rates, framed as a unanimous choice amid unchanged underlying inflation and high uncertainty, signals a cautious, data-dependent stance that tempers the hawkish rhetoric and keeps Euro bulls from fully pricing in an imminent tightening shift.
Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP maintains a bearish outlook below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/GBP extends its slide well beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band, which together hint at a firmly bearish near-term bias. Price is now closer to the lower Bollinger band support, while the Relative Strength Index (14) sits deep in oversold territory near 18.6, suggesting persistent selling pressure even as the pair approaches a potential exhaustion area.On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the Bollinger middle band near 0.8420, followed by the upper Bollinger band around 0.8512, with the 100-day SMA at 0.8540 reinforcing a broader cap on recovery attempts. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at 0.8325 offers immediate support; a decisive break beneath this floor would open the way toward new lows, whereas a rebound from this zone could trigger a corrective bounce back toward the 0.8420 area.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP maintains a bearish outlook below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/GBP extends its slide well beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band, which together hint at a firmly bearish near-term bias. Price is now closer to the lower Bollinger band support, while the Relative Strength Index (14) sits deep in oversold territory near 18.6, suggesting persistent selling pressure even as the pair approaches a potential exhaustion area.On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the Bollinger middle band near 0.8420, followed by the upper Bollinger band around 0.8512, with the 100-day SMA at 0.8540 reinforcing a broader cap on recovery attempts. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at 0.8325 offers immediate support; a decisive break beneath this floor would open the way toward new lows, whereas a rebound from this zone could trigger a corrective bounce back toward the 0.8420 area.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
08:58 British Pound: Higher bar for further gains against US Dollar - OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that the British Pound (GBP) is underpinned by fiscal discipline, resilient United Kingdom (UK) growth and improved political stability, with the latest Budget preserving headroom under fiscal rules.
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that the British Pound (GBP) is underpinned by fiscal discipline, resilient United Kingdom (UK) growth and improved political stability, with the latest Budget preserving headroom under fiscal rules. However, markets already discount an aggressive Bank of England (BoE) tightening path into 2027, so additional GBP upside now requires supportive data and BoE delivery, raising the bar for the next leg higher.Supportive backdrop but priced tightening"GBP has held up better than expected despite the fiscal strain from higher energy costs. Crucially, the Budget avoided adding to those concerns. It stayed within the fiscal rules and preserved GBP15bn of headroom against the stability rule, even after absorbing some of the impact from the Middle East conflict.""The broader UK backdrop also remains relatively supportive. Growth has proved resilient, with the OBR upgrading its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2%. Greater political stability and fiscal discipline should continue to offer GBP some relative support, while closer UK-EU economic ties could provide an additional medium-term tailwind.""But the easy gains may be behind us. Markets are already pricing an aggressive Bank of England tightening cycle, with a November hike heavily discounted and substantially more tightening priced into 2027. With plenty of tightening already in the price, the bar for the next leg higher in GBP is getting increasingly high."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
08:52 AUD/USD Price Forecast: 20-day EMA continues to lend support
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades subduedly at around 0.7025 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD ticks lower to near 0.7025 as the US Dollar regains ground.Investors turn cautious ahead of US mid-term elections next week.Australian CPI data for Q3 and September remained stronger.The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades subduedly at around 0.7025 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair edges down as the US Dollar recovers its early losses, with financial markets turning cautious ahead of United States (US) mid-term elections next week.As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades almost flat at around 101.82.US midterms set stage for divided government and policy gridlock risksAnalysts at Commerzbank argue that the US is “heading towards what is known as a ‘divided government’,” with a likely split between the White House and Congress. They note that in key areas for President Trump, “such as foreign and trade policy, he has in any case relied primarily on executive orders recently,” meaning much of his agenda can continue even if legislative progress slows.On the economic data front, preliminary US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data has come in stronger-than-expected.Economists at Commerzbank highlight that the US economy “expanded strongly by 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026,” with the Q3 GDP advance estimate coming in at “3.4% qoq annualised (Bloomberg consensus: 3.2%) vs 2.2% in Q2.” They note that “private consumption was the main driver and expanded 3.8%, at the same pace as Q2,” while “business investment, particularly in IT,” also contributed significantly to the robust outturn. At the same time, price pressures eased, with Commerzbank pointing out that “the GDP price index eased to 2.3% from 6.1% in Q2.”However, the bank has warned that the economic growth could moderate amid concerns over Artificial Intelligence (AI) spending plans by hyperscalers.Commerzbank has attributed this anticipated moderation to the fact that “financing conditions are no longer quite as favorable, and the boost from the AI boom is expected to subside, as is the stimulus from fiscal policy.”On the Aussie front, the domestic Q3 and September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data arrived stronger this week.Month-on-Month (MoM) CPI grew strongly by 0.8% vs. 0.7% estimates and the prior release of 0.4%. In the July-September period, price pressures rose in line with estimates of 1.3%, faster than the previous reading of 0.6%.AUD/USD Technical AnalysisIn the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7027. The pair holds a slight bullish bias as price remains just above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7013, hinting at emerging underlying demand after the recent recovery from sub-0.70 levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.7 is close to neutral but tilts higher, suggesting that upward momentum is modest yet constructive rather than overstretched.On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-period EMA at 0.7013, with the 0.70 region acting as a broader psychological floor should sellers regain control. Looking up, the October 29 high at 0.7068 is the initiate hurdle; a decisive break above the same would strengthen the case for further upside towards the September 23 high at 0.7119.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Economic Indicator Quarterly Consumer Price Index (QoQ) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a quarterly basis, measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by household consumers. The quarterly CPI data series are calculated as the average of the three relevant monthly CPIs. The QoQ reading compares prices in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. A high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Oct 28, 2026 00:30 Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 1.3% Consensus: 1.3% Previous: 0.6% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Why it matters to traders? The quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has a significant impact on the market and the AUD valuation. The gauge is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in order to achieve its inflation mandate, which has major monetary policy implications. Rising consumer prices tend to be AUD bullish, as the RBA could hike interest rates to maintain its inflation target. The data is released nearly 25 days after the quarter ends.
08:35 Indonesian Rupiah faces foreign outflow pressures amid weaker market sentiment
USD/IDR gains ground after three days of losses, trading around 18,180 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair continues to appreciate as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces downward pressure from potential foreign capital outflows.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Indonesian Rupiah weakens due to foreign capital outflows and a drop in the IDX Composite.Bank Indonesia intervenes via spot, NDF, and bond markets to support the struggling IDR.US Dollar softens as Middle East diplomatic efforts lower expectations for a Fed rate hike.USD/IDR gains ground after three days of losses, trading around 18,180 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair continues to appreciate as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces downward pressure from potential foreign capital outflows.Sentiment in Indonesia remains fragile, with the domestic stock market struggling as the IDX Composite fell 1.29% to trade around 5,030 during Asian trading hours on Friday. This decline was largely driven by weaker US stock futures following a sharp, historic drop in Alphabet’s share price overnight, which dragged Wall Street lower and reignited broader market concerns regarding the return on massive artificial intelligence investments.Adding to the economic pressure, Indonesia is grappling with persistent political tensions marked by ongoing student protests in major cities since early October. The Rupiah's weakness is further exacerbated by fiscal worries stemming from elevated oil prices, sustained net foreign selling, and mounting inflation concerns ahead of next week’s October inflation data release. However, the Rupiah may find a floor as Bank Indonesia reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the local currency through active spot, NDF, and DNDF interventions, as well as targeted government bond purchases in the secondary market.Meanwhile, the upside for the USD/IDR pair could be limited by broader weakness in the US Dollar (USD). The Greenback has eased due to reduced safe-haven demand, bolstered by growing optimism over US-led diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. As fears of oil supply disruptions and energy-driven inflation recede, market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike at its upcoming December meeting have softened. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in roughly a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase, down noticeably from 84.2% a day earlier.US growth surprise reinforces Dollar strength narrativeCommerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that “yesterday’s US growth figures for the third quarter were a pleasant surprise,” with GDP expanding at “3.4% annualised quarter-on-quarter” versus expectations for “3.2%.” He argues that, “given everything that has happened this year, it is easy to forget that there has been a strong case for a stronger Dollar in recent years,” pointing out that “the US economy is growing significantly faster than those of all the other G10 countries.” Against this backdrop, Pfister contends that the latest data further underpins the Dollar’s fundamental advantage, as solid US growth continues to distinguish it from its G10 peers. Indonesian Rupiah FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indonesian Rupiah? The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) is sensitive to a dynamic mix of global market conditions, domestic economic fundamentals, commodity price shifts, and proactive central bank interventions. As an emerging market currency, the Rupiah’s trajectory depends heavily on both domestic resilience and international economic momentum. How do decisions of the Bank Indonesia impact the Indonesian Rupiah? Bank Indonesia (BI) plays a central role in stabilizing the Rupiah through strategic monetary policy and direct market operations. By adjusting benchmark interest rates, the central bank manages yield differentials against major global central banks like the US Federal Reserve to attract and retain foreign portfolio investments. BI also utilizes a "triple-intervention" framework—operating across spot, derivative (DNDF), and government bond markets- to smooth out currency volatility, complemented by monetary instruments like Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) to bolster capital inflows. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indonesian Rupiah? From a broader macroeconomic perspective, domestic inflation rates, trade performance, and overall fiscal health dictate the IDR's underlying strength. Indonesia's trade and current account balances are closely tied to these fundamentals, while broader global factors, such as risk-on or risk-off sentiment among international investors and global liquidity trends, directly affect exchange rate movements. How do global commodity prices impact the Indonesian Rupiah? As a major exporter of commodities such as palm oil, coal, nickel, and natural gas, Indonesia benefits from higher global commodity prices, which generate trade surpluses, increase foreign currency inflows, and strengthen the Rupiah. However, because Indonesia is also a net importer of crude oil, elevated global oil prices increase the foreign exchange burden, widening the current account deficit and weighing on the currency's value.
08:34 Japanese Yen: BoJ signals inflation milestone before December decision – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister reports that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left rates unchanged after September’s hike, but delivered a hawkish signal by indicating underlying price pressures have reached the 2% target. A further rate increase in December is seen as increasingly likely and almost fully priced. Any additional hints from Governor Kazuo Ueda could give the Japanese Yen modest support near term.
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister reports that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left rates unchanged after September’s hike, but delivered a hawkish signal by indicating underlying price pressures have reached the 2% target. A further rate increase in December is seen as increasingly likely and almost fully priced. Any additional hints from Governor Kazuo Ueda could give the Japanese Yen modest support near term.
BoJ holds but December hike nears
"As expected, a few hours ago the Bank of Japan left its key interest rate unchanged. Anything else would have been a major surprise, given the rate hike in September."
"Although officials have recently suggested that the pace of rate hikes could accelerate, they are unlikely to act quite so quickly. However, the BoJ did send a hawkish signal: For the first time, it was indicated that underlying price pressures had reached the 2% target."
"Nevertheless, following this indication, the further interest rate hike in December - which we had also anticipated - is likely coming closer."
"If the BoJ Governor, Kazuo Ueda, provides further clues on this matter at the press conference at 6:30 UK time, the yen could strengthen slightly once again, even though the December move is now almost fully priced in."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
08:17 Euro: Rebound extends toward resistance against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue highlight a strong EUR/USD rebound after an early New York selloff, shifting their stance from negative to cautiously constructive. The Euro (EUR) is now expected to probe higher resistance levels, with upside contingent on holding nearby supports, while a failure could see the pair revert to range trading rather than a sustained advance.
United Overseas Bank strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue highlight a strong EUR/USD rebound after an early New York selloff, shifting their stance from negative to cautiously constructive. The Euro (EUR) is now expected to probe higher resistance levels, with upside contingent on holding nearby supports, while a failure could see the pair revert to range trading rather than a sustained advance.
Euro recovery eyes 1.1220–1.1250
"24-HOUR VIEW: Following Wednesday’s price action, we highlighted yesterday that EUR “has likely entered a range-trading phase between 1.1120 and 1.1190.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. During the early NY session, EUR fell sharply to a low of 1.1103. The decline was, however, brief, as EUR rebounded strongly to close at 1.1178 (+0.23%). Strong momentum suggests there is scope for EUR to rise further toward 1.1220. Given the overbought conditions, EUR is unlikely to break clearly above this level. To keep the momentum going, EUR must hold above 1.1155, with minor support at 1.1170."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned negative on EUR on Tuesday (27 Oct, spot at 1.1175). After EUR dropped to a low of 1.1111 and rebounded strongly, we highlighted the following yesterday (29 Oct, spot at 1.1160): “Downward momentum has slowed somewhat with the rebound, and EUR must break and close below 1.1110 before a sustained decline can be expected. The likelihood of EUR closing below 1.1110 will remain intact as long as 1.1190 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached.” EUR subsequently dropped briefly to 1.1103 before rebounding strongly to 1.1185. In the early Asian session today, EUR rose above our ‘strong resistance’ at 1.1190. Downward momentum has eased. There has been a tentative buildup in upward momentum, and EUR could rebound further to 1.1220. Looking ahead, if EUR closes above 1.1220, it could rise further to 1.1250. On the downside, a breach of 1.1130 would indicate that EUR is more likely to range-trade rather than heading to 1.1220."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
08:02 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Likely recover further to near 20-day EMA
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends its recovery to near 0.5640 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trade on Friday.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD recovers further to near 0.5640 amid hawkish RBNZ outlook.Commerzback expects the RBNZ to hike interest rates in December.The US Dollar rebounds amid uncertainty ahead of US mid-term elections.The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends its recovery to near 0.5640 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trade on Friday. The Kiwi pair started rebounding after a mayhem on Wednesday, caused by Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) unexpected decision to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.75%.The RBNZ left its OCR steady at 2.75%, while it was expected to raise it to 3%. However, the RBNZ signaled that it is a temporary pause and the central bank will remain on the monetary tightening path, citing upside inflation risks.NZ outlook steadied as Commerzbank sees RBNZ pause, not pivotAnalysts at Commerzbank argue that the RBNZ’s latest move should be seen as “more of a pause than a dovish pivot,” rather than the start of an easing cycle. They “continue to expect two further hikes, in December and 1Q27,” and suggest that this projected policy path “should limit further NZD downside” despite the currency’s recent weakness.Meanwhile, the US Dollar attracts bids amid caution ahead of United States (US) mid-term elections next week. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades almost flat at around 101.84 after clawing back its entire early losses.US midterms set stage for divided government and policy gridlock risksAnalysts at Commerzbank argue that the US is “heading towards what is known as a ‘divided government’,” with a likely split between the White House and Congress. They note that in key areas for President Trump, “such as foreign and trade policy, he has in any case relied primarily on executive orders recently,” meaning much of his agenda can continue even if legislative progress slows.NZD/USD Technical AnalysisIn the daily chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5637, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it remains under the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5658. The pair has been unable to reclaim this short-term trend marker, suggesting that recent rebounds are still capped within a broader downswing, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.4 stays below neutral, hinting at only modest recovery momentum.On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around 0.5658, where sellers are likely to defend the prevailing downtrend. On the downside, the October 28 low at 0.5584 is the key support level.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Economic Indicator RBNZ Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD. Read more. Last release: Wed Oct 28, 2026 01:00 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 2.75% Consensus: 3% Previous: 2.75% Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Why it matters to traders? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.
07:53 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Strengthens above 1.3350, but retains bearish tone below 100-day SMA
The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3380 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD), while markets digest the UK Autumn Budget and look ahead to upcoming Bank of England (BoE) decisions.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD gains traction to near 1.3380 in Friday’s early European session.Negative outlook for the pair remains intact below the 100-day SMA, with bearish RSI momentum.The immediate resistance level emerges in the 1.3390-1.3400 region; the first downside target to watch is 1.3300.The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3380 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD), while markets digest the UK Autumn Budget and look ahead to upcoming Bank of England (BoE) decisions.The United Kingdom (UK) set out a target date for defense spending to rise to 3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as the Finance Minister John Healey announced billions in aid for Ukraine in a “clear message to Moscow.” Healey on Wednesday set a target date of 2030 for the 3% figure while reaffirming its NATO commitment to reach 3.5% by 2035.Data released by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday showed that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index climbed 0.5% in September, versus a 0.3% rise prior. This figure came in line with market expectations.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 to hold its benchmark federal funds rate steady in a range of 3.75% to 4% at its October policy meeting on Wednesday. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials said they hoped incoming data would help inform their next decision.Markets are now pricing in about 74.9% odds of a US rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.UK budget seen as neutral for Pound and gilts as modest fiscal drag leaves BoE path intactAnalysts at Brown Brothers Harriman judge that the UK October 2026 Budget is “neutral for GBP and gilts,” noting that the government has “modestly increased fiscal tightening but plans to issue slightly more debt.” They highlight that the “cyclically adjusted primary balance, which excludes interest costs and adjusts for the economic cycle, is projected to improve from a deficit of -0.3% of GDP in 2026/27 to a surplus of +0.5% in 2027/28.” This shift implies “a fiscal drag of 0.8% of GDP, up from 0.6% projected in March,” but BBH cautions that “the additional fiscal restraint is probably too modest to materially curb the nearly 125bps of BoE rate hikes implied over the next twelve months.” On the funding side, they note that “£250.6 billion of total gilt sales are planned for 2026/27,” which is “roughly in line with expectations (around £249.6bn) and up £4.4bn from the £246.2bn planned in April.”Greene flags stalled wage disinflation, keeping GBP rate-cut hopes in checkGreene’s 7.4/10 FXS Speechtracker score matches the historic average, signaling a steady but firmly hawkish stance rather than an escalation. Emphasis that wage disinflation has stalled above levels consistent with 2% inflation, alongside stronger-than-expected economic resilience and a possible peak in labor market slack, reinforces caution on loosening policy and supports GBP on the margins.The call to “proactively lean against” second-round inflation effects, and the admission that these risks are greater than previously thought, underline resistance to near-term rate cuts. Forward-looking data pointing to pay growth closer to 3.5% backs the view that inflation pressures remain sticky, keeping the Bank of England biased toward a higher-for-longer stance that limits downside for GBP.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD retains a bearish tone in the near termIn the daily chart, GBP/USD holds just beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), which caps the topside and keeps the near-term bias cautiously bearish. Price remains above the 20-day Bollinger middle band, suggesting underlying demand on dips, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.9 points to steady but moderate bullish momentum that has yet to overcome the immediate overhead supply.On the topside, initial resistance level aligns in the 1.3390-1.3400 zone, representing the 100-day SMA and the psychological level. A decisive break above this level could pave the way to the upper boundary of Bollinger band near 1.3435, where a sustained break would be needed to ease downside pressure.On the downside, the 20-day Bollinger middle band at 1.3300 acts as first support ahead of the October 27 low of 1.3272. The next contention level is located at the lower limit of Bollinger band near 1.3165, where a deeper slide would expose a more pronounced corrective phase.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD retains a bearish tone in the near termIn the daily chart, GBP/USD holds just beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), which caps the topside and keeps the near-term bias cautiously bearish. Price remains above the 20-day Bollinger middle band, suggesting underlying demand on dips, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.9 points to steady but moderate bullish momentum that has yet to overcome the immediate overhead supply.On the topside, initial resistance level aligns in the 1.3390-1.3400 zone, representing the 100-day SMA and the psychological level. A decisive break above this level could pave the way to the upper boundary of Bollinger band near 1.3435, where a sustained break would be needed to ease downside pressure.On the downside, the 20-day Bollinger middle band at 1.3300 acts as first support ahead of the October 27 low of 1.3272. The next contention level is located at the lower limit of Bollinger band near 1.3165, where a deeper slide would expose a more pronounced corrective phase.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
07:41 Canadian Dollar stands firm near September 16 top vs weak USD amid bullish oil prices
The USD/CAD pair attracts sellers for the third straight day, sliding to a fresh low since September 16 during the Asian session on Friday amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD extends its downtrend for the third straight day amid a combination of negative factors.Declining US bond yields and hopes for Middle East diplomacy weigh on the safe-haven USD.Bullish oil prices and the BoC’s hawkish shift underpin the Loonie, exerting additional pressure.The USD/CAD pair attracts sellers for the third straight day, sliding to a fresh low since September 16 during the Asian session on Friday amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD). Spot prices, however, recover a few pips from the vicinity of mid-1.3900s as a modest pullback in crude oil prices caps gains for the commodity-linked Loonie. Nevertheless, the pair remains on track to register losses for the third straight week.The USD prolongs its corrective slide for the third straight day amid hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end conflicts in the Middle East and a slump in US bond yields. In fact, US Vice President JD Vance sent a direct letter to the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, to restart peace negotiations. Furthermore, Qatar presented Iran with a new draft peace deal. Meanwhile, investors rushed into safe-haven government bonds after weak tech earnings raised concerns that rising AI spending may not deliver sufficient returns. This, in turn, weighs on the buck and the USD/CAD pair.However, investors remain wary amid escalating hostilities between the Iran-backed Houthi group and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, threats from the US and Israel to restart attacks after the US midterm elections keep the geopolitical risk premium in play. Apart from this, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations help the safe-haven USD attract some buyers in the vicinity of the weekly low. Traders seem convinced that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in December, and the bets were reaffirmed by Thursday's US macro data, which pointed to a resilient economy and persistent price pressures.Furthermore, inflation risk stemming from elevated crude oil prices underpins prospects for additional policy tightening by the Fed. Meanwhile, the downside for the Canadian Dollar (USD) seems limited on the back of the Bank of Canada's (BoC) abrupt shift toward monetary tightening following the first rate hike since July 2023 earlier on Wednesday. This might hold back traders from placing any bullish bets on the USD/CAD pair, warranting caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery. Traders now look to the monthly Canadian GDP report and speeches from influential FOMC members for some impetus.USD/CAD 4-hour chartTechnical AnalysisThe USD/CAD pair holds a bearish near-term bias following the recent breakdown and acceptance below the 1.4000 psychological mark. Moreover, spot prices remain well below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, suggesting that rallies are likely to stay capped while the pair consolidates beneath this structural barrier.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
07:39 Indian Rupee continues to face pressure from Middle East risks
The Indian Rupee (INR) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD), as oil prices continue to boil due to Middle East risks. In the opening trade on Friday, the USD/INR pair is slightly higher to near 95.25, closer to its over two-week high of 95.38 posted the previous day.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee faces pressure as oil prices gain sharply.TD Securities expects oil prices to retain a risk premium amid ongoing Middle East risks.Both the US Dollar and US Treasury Yields are seen regaining ground.The Indian Rupee (INR) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD), as oil prices continue to boil due to Middle East risks. In the opening trade on Friday, the USD/INR pair is slightly higher to near 95.25, closer to its over two-week high of 95.38 posted the previous day.In early trading on Friday, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on November 19 jumps to near its recent highs of Rs. 9,873.Higher oil prices bode poorly for currencies from economies, such as India, given their significant reliance on oil imports to meet their energy needs.Crude trades under headline pressure but risk premium keeps energy supportedAccording to TD Securities, a "deal headline barrage" ahead of the US midterm elections is exerting notable pressure on crude, with "persistent headlines of deal talks" weighing on the market. The bank expects this dynamic to persist into the vote, but adds that it does not anticipate that Iran would agree to a deal "just before the tense elections."At the same time, TD Securities stresses that "on the ground, the fundamentals remain tight," pointing to tanker attacks and Houthi pressure, which "appear to have been successful in reducing Mideast flows, at least temporarily." The bank argues that "so long as continued attacks keep a risk premium in the market, energy prices should remain well-supported in this higher range."US Dollar and US bond yields regain groundSigns from price action in the US Dollar and US Treasury Yields that both are regaining ground are also lending strength to the USD/INR pair.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers a majority of its early losses and trades around 101.78 at press time. Earlier in the day, the USD Index declined to 101.59.As of writing, 10-year US Treasury Yields are down 0.24% to near 4.93%, but they have clawed back majority of early losses after sliding to a fresh seven-week low at 4.89%.The US Dollar and bond yields came under pressure even though preliminary United States (US) Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remained stronger than expected and the core Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, elevated further.On Tuesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy expanded at an annualized pace of 3.4%, faster than estimates of 3.2% and the prior release of 2.2%.The US core PCE Inflation rose by 3.1% Year-on-Year (YoY) in September, in line with expectations, and higher than the August reading of 3%. On a monthly basis, the growth was similar to estimates and the prior release of 0.3%.USD/INR Technical AnalysisIn the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 95.25, maintaining a mildly bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.32. The pair has retreated from late-September highs and the loss of the short-term EMA suggests upside attempts are being capped, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.94 hovers just below neutral, hinting at fading bullish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA near 95.32, followed by 96.00. Looking down, the June 25 low at 94.16 is the key support level.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
07:03 WTI Price Forecast: Pulls back from multi-month top near 104.00 as bullish bias holds
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – retreats after touching a fresh high since May 19, around the $104.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday, though the downside seems limited.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI struggles to capitalize on the Asian session gains to a fresh high since May 19.Hopes for Middle East diplomacy prompt bulls to take some profits off the table.Supply disruption worries act as a tailwind amid a constructive technical setup.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – retreats after touching a fresh high since May 19, around the $104.00 mark during the Asian session on Friday, though the downside seems limited. The commodity currently trades above the $102.00 round figure, still up for the third straight day, as supply disruption worries counter hopes for Middle East diplomacy.In the latest developments, US Vice President JD Vance sent a direct letter to the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, to restart peace negotiations. Furthermore, Qatar presented Iran with a new draft deal to end the war with the US and Israel. Meanwhile, Iran's navy claimed Thursday that four oil tankers had struck sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, investors remain wary amid escalating hostilities between the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, which might continue to act as a tailwind for crude oil prices.From a technical perspective, the black liquid retains a bullish bias following the recent breakout above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, the recent advance within an upward-sloping parallel channel validates the positive outlook amid constructive momentum indicators. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (14) hovers around 57 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, which together suggest that buyers still control the short-term tone, with the lower boundary of the channel at $100.49 acting as near-term underlying demand.On the topside, the main resistance sits at the upper boundary of the ascending channel near $107.22, where a rejection would likely trigger consolidation or a corrective pullback. Meanwhile, crude oil prices would need to break below the channel support to signal a more meaningful deterioration of the bullish setup and set the stage for a fall to the 100-period EMA at $96.97.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)WTI 4-hour chart WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
06:58 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains to near 1.1200, while staying below key technical resistance
The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.1190 during the early European trading hours on Friday. A hawkish pause from the European Central Bank (ECB) provides some support to the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD).
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD strengthens to near 1.1190 in Friday’s early European session.The ECB voted to hold interest rates steady on Thursday.The pair keeps a negative bias under the 100-day SMA, with bearish RSI momentum.The first upside barrier emerges at 1.1200; 1.1135 acts as an initial support level.The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.1190 during the early European trading hours on Friday. A hawkish pause from the European Central Bank (ECB) provides some support to the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD). Traders brace for the preliminary readings of Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from Germany and the Eurozone later on Friday.The ECB decided to hold its deposit rate at 2.50%, as widely expected, after raising it by 25 basis points (bps) in September. According to a statement, the Governing Council said that rising energy prices posed upside risks to the inflation outlook and downside risks to growth, but that underlying inflation and wages were so far broadly stable.Money markets were pricing in around a 67% chance of a rate hike in December following the announcement, according to LSEG data.Euro holds steady as ECB faces energy shock and December hike debateStrategists at Scotiabank note that market pricing still leans toward additional tightening, with “markets expect a further 25bps hike in December, where many forecasters (including Scotia) think policymakers will halt.” They caution that “we likely won’t get insight into that prospect today,” but expect President Lagarde to “frame the outlook in a way that keeps the door open to a December move amid elevated energy prices whilst maintaining optionality in the face of uncertainties.”The bank highlights the inflation challenge posed by the energy backdrop, pointing out that “benchmark European Natgas prices are roughly double the ECB’s September forecast and some 30% above the ‘adverse’ scenario amid tight supplies and low storage.” From a technical perspective, Scotiabank remains “neutral/bearish – The EUR remains technically soft but key support defined by the mid-October low at 1.1113 continues to hold.”Lagarde flags upside inflation risks but sticks to measured Euro stanceThe FXS Speechtracker score of 6.2/10 is only marginally above the historic 6.1/10 baseline, signalling a broadly consistent tone with a slight tilt toward concern on inflation. Lagarde highlighted that the Euro area economy is expanding in Q3 and that near-term growth should be underpinned by AI investment, government spending and a pickup in exports, but also stressed that renewed energy price increases, tighter financial conditions and fiscal uncertainty are weighing on confidence and leave growth risks skewed to the downside.On inflation, the emphasis on energy prices rising beyond the baseline, early-stage pricing chain pressures, wage growth around 2.5%-2.8% and headline inflation likely well above target in coming quarters marks a hawkish shift, reinforced by the statement that risks to inflation are to the upside. Yet the unanimous decision to hold rates, the focus on a “measured approach” and the importance of incoming data and underlying inflation in the next information-rich period suggest the ECB is not pre-committing to further tightening, which tempers the hawkish bias and keeps the Euro supported but capped pending new data.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD retains a negative tone under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/USD retains a bearish tone as it holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and beneath the Bollinger Bands middle line. The pair is edging closer to the lower Bollinger band support, while the 14-period Relative Strength Index around 41 remains subdued, suggesting weak recovery momentum despite the recent stabilization.On the topside, immediate resistance level is clustered near the Bollinger Bands middle line at 1.1200, en route to the upper boundary of Bollinger band 1.1265 and the June 24 low of 1.1325. The next hurdle to watch is the 100-day SMA at 1.1432. On the downside, the lower limit of Bollinger band at 1.1135 offers initial support level. A clear break below this level would likely open the door to the 1.1100 psychological level, followed by the May 12, 2025 low of 1.0951. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD retains a negative tone under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/USD retains a bearish tone as it holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and beneath the Bollinger Bands middle line. The pair is edging closer to the lower Bollinger band support, while the 14-period Relative Strength Index around 41 remains subdued, suggesting weak recovery momentum despite the recent stabilization.On the topside, immediate resistance level is clustered near the Bollinger Bands middle line at 1.1200, en route to the upper boundary of Bollinger band 1.1265 and the June 24 low of 1.1325. The next hurdle to watch is the 100-day SMA at 1.1432. On the downside, the lower limit of Bollinger band at 1.1135 offers initial support level. A clear break below this level would likely open the door to the 1.1100 psychological level, followed by the May 12, 2025 low of 1.0951. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
06:49 Swiss Franc remains stronger as easing safe-haven demand weighs on US Dollar
USD/CHF extends its losses for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.8220 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair is experiencing downward pressure as the US Dollar (USD) weakens on reduced safe-haven demand, driven by optimism around US-led diplomatic efforts.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF slides as easing Middle East tensions reduce safe-haven demand and Fed rate hike expectations.Low Swiss interest rates make the CHF a key funding currency, boosting selling pressure for higher yields.Swiss National Bank is expected to hold rates at 0% with stable inflation, delaying potential rate hikes until 2027.USD/CHF extends its losses for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.8220 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair is experiencing downward pressure as the US Dollar (USD) weakens on reduced safe-haven demand, driven by optimism around US-led diplomatic efforts.Easing tensions in the Middle East have helped temper fears over oil supply disruptions and broader inflation, which in turn has dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at its upcoming December meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in approximately a 75% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase, marking a noticeable decline from 84.2% just a day earlier.Meanwhile, crude oil prices stabilized following reports that US Vice President JD Vance contacted Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, to reopen peace talks, a diplomatic effort approved by US President Donald Trump, who noted Iran’s need for essential supplies and medical assistance.The downside for the USD/CHF pair may be limited due to persistent weaknesses in the Swiss Franc (CHF). The CHF continues to face selling pressure from carry trades, fueled by a widening interest rate differential with the United States. Because Swiss borrowing costs remain the lowest globally, the Franc serves as an attractive funding source; traders routinely borrow in Francs and sell them to purchase higher-yielding assets, suppressing the currency's value.Underpinning this dynamic is the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) prolonged neutral stance, having kept its policy benchmark rate at 0% for over a year. SNB Chair Martin Schlegel reaffirmed that no immediate policy adjustment is necessary given stable domestic inflation. While economic forecasters expect rates to hold steady through 2027, financial markets are beginning to price in a potential rate hike in early 2027. Additionally, Swiss policymakers have scaled back their threats of direct currency intervention, removing another potential support layer for the Franc.Scotiabank flags growing downside risks for the DollarStrategists at Scotiabank caution that the balance of risks around the greenback has shifted materially, stressing that “we see significant downside risk for the USD on the basis of weakening fundamentals.” They note that the underlying macro backdrop no longer justifies recent levels of Dollar strength, leaving the currency increasingly vulnerable should incoming data continue to underwhelm. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
06:46 Gold slides below $4,000 as Fed rate hike bets offset falling bond yields and weak USD
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through selling for the second straight day and slides below the $4,000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Friday amid hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold adds to the previous day’s heavy losses and slides back closer to the monthly low.Oil-driven inflation fears bolster Fed hike bets, exerting pressure on the precious metal.Declining US bond yields weigh heavily on the USD, although they fail to support the bullion.Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through selling for the second straight day and slides below the $4,000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Friday amid hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. In fact, US macro data released on Thursday pointed to resilient economic growth and persistent price pressures, solidifying bets for an imminent rate hike in December. This, in turn, is seen as undermining the non-yielding bullion.The preliminary estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the US economic growth accelerated to an annualised rate of 3.4%, up from 2.2% in the previous quarter and beating the consensus forecast for a reading of 3.2%. Adding to this, the US Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.5% in September and was up 3.6% from a year ago. Moreover, the core gauge, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% and 3.1% on a monthly basis and yearly basis, respectively. This comes on top of inflationary concerns stemming from elevated US bond yields and underpins prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed.Meanwhile, US Treasury yields tumbled as investors rushed into safe-haven government bonds after weak tech earnings raised concerns that rising AI spending may not deliver sufficient returns. Moreover, reviving hopes for a diplomatic solution to end conflicts in the Middle East dragged the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) lower for the third straight day, although it does little to ease the bearish pressure surrounding gold. In the latest developments, US Vice President JD Vance sent a direct letter to the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, in an effort to restart peace negotiations. Furthermore, Qatar presented Iran with a new draft deal to end the war with the US and Israel.However, investors remain wary amid escalating hostilities between the Iran-backed Houthi group in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, threats from the US and Israel to restart attacks after the US midterm elections keep the geopolitical risk premium firmly in play. Meanwhile, Iran's navy claimed Thursday that four oil tankers had struck sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to supply disruption worries and supporting oil prices. This backs the case for the emergence of USD dip-buying, suggesting that the path of least resistance for gold is to the downside and any recovery is likely to be sold into. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to register a monthly loss of around 3.5%.XAU/USD 4-hour chartTechnical AnalysisThe precious metal extends its slide within a well-defined downward parallel channel, maintaining a negative near-term bias. Adding to this, the commodity trades below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, which reinforces the bearish structure and should act as dynamic resistance overhead. Meanwhile, momentum indicators further validate the negative tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 35 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line in negative territory. This, in turn, suggests that selling pressure remains dominant while rebounds are likely to be capped by nearby resistance.On the downside, weakness below the previous monthly swing low, around $3,975, would expose the next notable support marked by the lower boundary of the descending parallel channel, around $3,946. A decisive break beneath this floor would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and open the door to deeper losses in the coming sessions.On the topside, any attempted recovery is more likely to confront initial resistance at the $4,025-$4,030 horizontal zone, above which a bout of short covering could lift the Gold to the 100-period EMA around $4,093, ahead of the channel’s upper boundary near $4,126, forming a broader supply zone that would need to be reclaimed to ease bearish pressure.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
06:39 Asian stocks trade mixed, KOSPI leads losses as worries about AI grow
Asian equities mostly trade mixed on Friday. Concerns over Artificial Intelligence (AI)-related investments weigh on Asian markets, triggering significant losses among major South Korean and Japanese technology companies.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Asian stock markets trade mixed on Monday.Worries about AI's future grew after disappointing earnings from major US tech companies, weighing on the KOSPI and Nikkei.BoJ held interest rates at its October meeting on Friday, signaling further hikes.Asian equities mostly trade mixed on Friday. Concerns over Artificial Intelligence (AI)-related investments weigh on Asian markets, triggering significant losses among major South Korean and Japanese technology companies.The South Korean stock market leads losses on the day, with the benchmark KOSPI falling by 5.20% to 5,630. Samsung stock was down 5.70% at press time, while SK Hynix tumbled 1.60%. SK Hynix had posted record quarterly sales of 104.6 trillion won earlier this week.The Nikkei 225, Japan’s benchmark, dropped 2.55% to 63,020. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members decided to hold the short-term interest rate steady at 1.25% following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review meeting on Friday. The decision aligned with market expectations.The BoJ declared that underlying inflation in the country was “generally consistent” with its target of 2%, the first time it has made that assessment since adopting the target in 2013.In Taiwan, the Taiex fell by 2.42% to 45,255. Investors worry about higher borrowing costs, massive AI spending and some weaker-than-expected earnings.The SHANGHAI, China’s main stock market index, declined by 0.30% to 3,640. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange rose by 1.70% to 23.345. The Shenzhen Stock Index slumped by 0.60% to 11,075. Asian stocks FAQs Which are the main stock market indices in Asia? Asia contributes around 70% of global economic growth and hosts several key stock market indices. Among the region’s developed economies, the Japanese Nikkei – which represents 225 companies on the Tokyo stock exchange – and the South Korean Kospi stand out. China has three important indices: the Hong Kong Hang Seng, the Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen Composite. As a big emerging economy, Indian equities are also catching the attention of investors, who increasingly invest in companies in the Sensex and Nifty indices. What are the main sectors represented in Asian stock markets? Asia’s main economies are different, and each has specific sectors to pay attention to. Technology companies dominate in indices in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. Financial services are leading stock markets such as Hong Kong or Singapore, considered key hubs for the sector. Manufacturing is also big in China and Japan, with a strong focus on automobile production or electronics. The growing middle class in countries like China and India is also giving more and more prominence to companies focused on retail and e-commerce. What factors drive Asian stock markets? Many different factors drive Asian stock market indices, but the main factor behind their performance is the aggregate results of the component companies revealed in their quarterly and annual earnings reports. The economic fundamentals of each country, as well as their central bank decisions or their government’s fiscal policies, are also important factors. More broadly, political stability, technological progress or the rule of law can also impact equity markets. The performance of US equity indices is also a factor as, more often than not, Asian markets take the lead from Wall Street stocks overnight. Finally, the broader risk sentiment in markets also plays a role as equities are considered a risky investment compared to other investment options such as fixed-income securities. What are the risks of investing in Asia stock markets? Investing in equities is risky by itself, but investing in Asian stocks comes along with region-specific risks to be taken into account. Asian countries have a wide range of political systems, from full democracies to dictatorships, so their political stability, transparency, rule of law or corporate governance requirements may diverge considerably. Geopolitical events such as trade disputes or territorial conflicts can lead to volatility in stock markets, as can natural disasters. Moreover, currency fluctuations can also have an impact on the valuation of Asian stock markets. This is particularly true in export-oriented economies, which tend to suffer from a stronger currency and benefit from a weaker one as their products become cheaper abroad.
06:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.The price for Gold stood at 12,227.85 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,314.31 it cost on Thursday.The price for Gold decreased to INR 142,623.30 per tola from INR 143,631.70 per tola a day earlier.Unit measureGold Price in INR1 Gram12,227.8510 Grams122,278.50Tola142,623.30Troy Ounce380,339.50FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
06:01 Euro holds losses as BoJ pause weighs on EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY halts its two-day winning streak, trading around 176.10 during Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross loses ground as the Japanese Yen (JPY) holds gains following the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to leave its short-term interest rate unchanged at 1.25%.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Bank of Japan interest rate hold at 1.25% strengthens Yen, pressing EUR/JPY lower.BoJ inflation target revisions highlight potential for further Japanese monetary policy tightening.Surging energy costs fuel European inflation risks, keeping a December ECB rate hike firmly in play.EUR/JPY halts its two-day winning streak, trading around 176.10 during Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross loses ground as the Japanese Yen (JPY) holds gains following the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to leave its short-term interest rate unchanged at 1.25%. The hold, which aligned with market expectations, concluded the central bank's two-day monetary policy review meeting.The summary of the BoJ’s Monetary Policy Statement revealed that the median projection for core CPI in fiscal 2026 remains at 2.5%, unchanged from July, with underlying inflation hitting levels consistent with the price target.Looking ahead, the core-core CPI median projection for fiscal 2027 was revised upward to 2.7% from 2.6% in July, with the board warning that underlying inflation could potentially exceed targets. The BoJ reaffirmed its commitment to adjusting monetary policy as needed, emphasizing the necessity of preventing unchecked inflation from hurting the broader economy later.Despite current JPY strength, the EUR/JPY cross may soon regain ground as the Euro draws support from a hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) policy outlook. Surging energy costs have heightened inflation risks across the Eurozone, signaling to traders that an ECB rate hike in December remains firmly in play.Euro rate path in focus as markets eye December ECB moveStrategists at Scotiabank highlight that market pricing still leans toward additional tightening, noting that "markets expect a further 25bps hike in December," even as "many forecasters (including Scotia) think policymakers will halt." This divergence underscores lingering uncertainty around the ECB’s near-term policy trajectory despite growing expectations that the current cycle is approaching its end. Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Last release: Fri Oct 30, 2026 03:03 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 1.25% Consensus: 1.25% Previous: 1.25% Source: Bank of Japan
05:26 Japanese Yen strengthens vs USD on BoJ's hawkish pause; focus shifts Ueda's presser
The USD/JPY pair drifts lower for the third straight day on Friday, sliding further below mid-157.00s during the Asian session following the highly anticipated Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY attracts sellers for the second straight day amid a combination of negative factors.Hot Tokyo CPI and the BoJ’s hawkish outlook reaffirm December hike bets, boosting the JPY.Iran diplomacy hopes and falling US bond yields exert pressure on the USD and spot prices.The USD/JPY pair drifts lower for the third straight day on Friday, sliding further below mid-157.00s during the Asian session following the highly anticipated Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision.As was expected, the BoJ held its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote, with Takata dissenting in favour of a hike. In the accompanying statement, the central bank noted that the core inflation is likely to stay near levels consistent with price target and risk to prices remain tilted toward upside. This comes on top of a hot Tokyo CPI report released earlier today and reaffirms market expectations for an imminent rate hike in December, providing a modest lift to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and weighing on the USD/JPY pair.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) selling remains unabated amid hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end the US-Iran war. Moreover, declining US bond yields narrow the US-Japan rate differential, lending additional support to the lower-yielding JPY and contributing to the offered tone surrounding the Greenback. This backs the case for a further depreciating move for the USD/JPY pair, though bears opt to wait for BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments during the post-meeting press conference before placing fresh bets. Economic Indicator BoJ Press Conference The Bank of Japan (BoJ) holds a press conference at the end of each one of its eight scheduled policy meetings. At the press conference the Governor of the BoJ communicates with media representatives and investors regarding monetary policy. The Governor talks about the factors that affect the most recent interest rate decision, the overall economic outlook, inflation, and clues regarding future monetary policy. Hawkish comments tend to boost the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a dovish message tends to weaken it. Read more. Next release: Fri Oct 30, 2026 06:30 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Bank of Japan
05:13 British Pound remains almost steady against Japanese Yen after BoJ’s dovish hold
The British Pound (GBP) remains almost stable against the Japanese Yen (JPY) at around 210.80 after the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy announcement.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The British Pound has not faced a significant reaction against the Japanese Yen after BoJ’s policy decision.The BoJ leaves interest rates steady at 1.25%, with an 8-1 majority.Investors expect the BoE to hike interest rates to 4% next week.The British Pound (GBP) remains almost stable against the Japanese Yen (JPY) at around 210.80 after the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy announcement.The BoJ has left interest rates steady at 1.25%, with an 8-1 majority. BoJ board member Hajime Takata dissented the decision and voted in favor of a rate hike by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.50%.In the September meeting, the BoJ hiked policy rates by 25 bps in the September meeting.The BoJ was expected to leave policy rates unchanged as Governor Kazuo Ueda warned against quick monetary tightening in the September policy.Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) said in a note that the BoJ is "widely expected to keep rates on hold at 1.25% and assess September’s 25bps hike before tightening again." They highlight Governor Kazuo Ueda’s cautious tone, recalling that "in September, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that rapid rate hikes could unsettle asset prices, adding that it could take some time to confirm that 2% inflation is entrenched."Meanwhile, investors await BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook. Commerzbank said before the policy decision that “markets currently price an around 80% probability of a rate hike in December”.On the United Kingdom (UK) front, financial markets shift their focus to the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement next week.What to expect from BoE?Strategists at Societe Generale argued that a BoE rate increase is effectively “nailed on in November,” pointing to a “brace of upside surprises for CPI and PPI output price inflation, and firmer wage data” as key drivers. They warn that this combination will “alert the MPC to the budding risk of second round effects” and “will almost certainly trigger a hawkish response on interest rates” at the next policy meeting on November 5. Economic Indicator BoJ Governor Ueda speech Kazuo Ueda is the Governor of the Bank of Japan, he replaced Haruhiko Kuroda on April 2023. Before being appointed, Ueda was an economics professor at the University of Tokyo and held a PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Mr. Ueda is the first academic economist to run the bank in post-war Japan, breaking with the tradition that the governor is drawn from the BoJ or finance ministry. Read more. Next release: Fri Nov 06, 2026 16:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source: Bank of Japan
05:11 Australian Dollar holds losses against Japanese Yen following BoJ rate decision
AUD/JPY loses ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 110.80 during Asian hours on Friday.
.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY holds losses as the Japanese Yen remains stronger following the BoJ policy decision.The BoJ decided to keep policy rate unchanged at 1.25%, as expected.AS of October 29, ASX futures indicated an 80% chance of an RBA rate hike to 4.85%.AUD/JPY loses ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 110.80 during Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross holds losses as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains stronger after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members decided to leave the short-term interest rate unchanged at 1.25% following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review meeting.The downside of the AUD/JPY cross could be restrained as the Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support from expectations of further policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Hotter-than-expected inflation data and hawkish comments from RBA officials have led markets to increasingly price in a rate hike at the central bank's upcoming November 3 meeting.As of October 29, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures November 2026 contract was trading at 95.22, signaling an 80% probability of an interest rate increase to 4.85% at the next RBA Board meeting.RBA seen delivering one last hike as TD Securities flags firmer inflationAccording to TD Securities, the firmer third-quarter CPI print has reinforced expectations that the RBA will move again next week. The bank now anticipates that the central bank will "lift the cash rate 25bps at next week's meeting to 4.85%," arguing that the stronger inflation outcome "validates the Bank's decision to hike last month" and that "likely forecast upgrades to the Bank's inflation track in the November Statement on Monetary Policy likely justify a follow-up 25bps hike next week." TD Securities adds that this "hike should mark the last in the cycle," suggesting the tightening phase is nearing its end. Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Last release: Fri Oct 30, 2026 03:00 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 1.25% Consensus: 1.25% Previous: 1.25% Source: Bank of Japan
04:56 Australian Dollar edges higher as hot CPI inflation and hawkish RBA lift rate hike bets
The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7035 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) as hotter Australian CPI inflation data has bolstered expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hikes.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD gains ground to near 0.7035 in Friday’s Asian session.Australia’s hotter-than-expected inflation and hawkish remarks from the RBA have boosted expectations of rate hike.Fed held steady on rates at the conclusion of its October meeting, maintaining its target range of 3.75% to 4.00%.The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7035 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) as hotter Australian CPI inflation data has bolstered expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hikes.The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 4.3% YoY in September from 4.0% in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday. This figure came in above the market consensus of 4.2%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said that the price pressures the RBA had been worried about were starting to emerge.This report has boosted the case for the RBA rate hike in the upcoming meeting next Tuesday and support the Aussie. Markets are now pricing in nearly a 80% chance of an interest rate increase to 4.85% at the next RBA Board meeting, up from 62% before the data was released, according to the ASX RBA Rate Tracker.On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to leave its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged in a range of 3.75% to 4%. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, preferring to hike rates by 25 basis points (bps).Policymakers stated that they hoped incoming data would help inform their next decision. Traders are pricing in a 74.9% probability of a hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Australia inflation surprise bolsters RBA hike bets and supports the AussieStrategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the latest Australia inflation data “beat expectations, strengthening the case for another RBA hike and underpinning AUD.” September headline CPI rose “4.3% y/y (consensus: 4.2%) vs. 4.0% in August reflecting rising housing and transport costs,” leaving price pressures running hotter than the central bank had anticipated.BBH highlights that “inflation is materially worse than the RBA assessed in August, when it forecast year-end headline CPI at 3.6% and trimmed mean at 3.3%.” In their view, “this argues for additional tightening,” with RBA cash rate futures having “raised odds of a 25bps hike to 4.85% on November 3 from 60% to 85%, and increased bets on another hike in Q1.”On the core measures, BBH points out that “trimmed mean CPI matched consensus at 3.6% y/y up from 3.5% in August.” More importantly for policy, “the policy-relevant Q3 trimmed mean CPI ran hot at 3.7% y/y (consensus: 3.6%) vs. 3.6% in Q2,” reinforcing the view that underlying inflation remains uncomfortably elevated for the RBA.Warsh doubles down on price stability pledge, keeping Dollar bulls engagedWarsh’s press conference tone is firmly consistent with the established baseline, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7/10 matching the historical average and underscoring a steady hawkish stance. The key remark that “ensuring price stability is not about a fixed date on a calendar” reinforces a data-dependent, outcome-focused approach, while repeated references to “new monetary medicine,” removal of accommodation, and confidence in inflation expectations signal ongoing commitment to quashing inflation rather than pre-committing to a rapid pivot. Emphasis on a hard 2% PCE target, rejection of a “soft” inflation goal, and acknowledgement that interest rates are tightening financial conditions and affecting new technology and CAPEX all support a narrative of persistent policy resolve that is broadly supportive for the Dollar.The FXS Fed Sentiment Index jumped by +14.39 points to 141.89, pushing sentiment deeper into hawkish territory and aligning with the unchanged 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score. With the index far above the neutral 100 line, the combination of a firm 2% price stability pledge and recognition that “monetary medicine is starting to work” suggests markets should continue to price a relatively restrictive Fed path, a backdrop that tends to underpin the Dollar against the Euro and Yen.
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD keeps a modest bullish outlook in the near termIn the daily chart, AUD/USD holds a modest bullish bias as price sits above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band, suggesting the recent rebound is supported by underlying demand. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.4 has shifted into neutral-to-positive territory, hinting that buyers retain the upper hand without yet pushing the pair into overbought conditions.On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the upper Bollinger band around 0.7065, where a sustained break would open the door to a more extended recovery. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 0.7035, followed by the Bollinger middle band near 0.6995; a deeper pullback toward the lower Bollinger band at 0.6925 would likely attract fresh buying interest while keeping the broader constructive tone intact.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD keeps a modest bullish outlook in the near termIn the daily chart, AUD/USD holds a modest bullish bias as price sits above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band, suggesting the recent rebound is supported by underlying demand. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.4 has shifted into neutral-to-positive territory, hinting that buyers retain the upper hand without yet pushing the pair into overbought conditions.On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the upper Bollinger band around 0.7065, where a sustained break would open the door to a more extended recovery. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 0.7035, followed by the Bollinger middle band near 0.6995; a deeper pullback toward the lower Bollinger band at 0.6925 would likely attract fresh buying interest while keeping the broader constructive tone intact.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:48 United States Dollar Index slips as US-Iran hopes cap safe-haven bid
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground for the third successive day and trading near 101.70 during Asian hours on Friday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}DXY declines as easing Middle East tensions lower safe-haven demand and reduce December Fed rate-hike probabilities.US-Iran peace talks steady crude oil prices, helping dampen immediate inflation concerns.Robust US GDP and tight labor market data limit Dollar losses by demonstrating economic resilience.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground for the third successive day and trading near 101.70 during Asian hours on Friday.The Greenback faces pressure on easing safe-haven demand amid hopes for US-led diplomatic peace talks. Easing Middle East tensions have helped offset oil supply and inflationary concerns, dampening expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike at its December meeting. CME FedWatch Tool suggests that traders are now pricing in a nearly 75% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase, down from 84.2% a day prior.Crude oil prices held steady following a Wall Street Journal report disclosing that US Vice President JD Vance reached out on Wednesday to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in an effort to restart peace talks. US President Donald Trump confirmed he approved Vance's diplomatic outreach, adding that Iran needs assistance with medical supplies and other essential resources.However, recent US economic data highlights continued resilience and increased Fed rate hike bets. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product printed at 3.4% YoY, beating expectations of 3.2% and rising from Q2's 2.2% reading, driven by strong consumer spending at 3.8% YoY.Furthermore, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the Core PCE Price Index, rose 3.1% YoY in line with expectations, while initial jobless claims dipped slightly to 194K, reinforcing signs of a heating economy and a tight labor market.Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 101.70. Price holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remains capped by the nine-day EMA, keeping the near-term tone neutral after the recent pullback from the highs. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to 51.47, hinting at consolidative momentum rather than a clear directional push, while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index at 141.89 suggests elevated policy-related uncertainty that could limit sustained trending moves.On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 9-day EMA at 101.93, and a decisive break above this barrier would open the way for a retest of recent peaks. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA at 101.21, with a daily close below this level likely to shift the bias back toward a more bearish configuration as the index would start sliding beneath its medium-term trend base.US Dollar Index: Daily ChartTreasury curve steepening seen as supportive for broader USD toneStrategists at Scotiabank highlight that recent “price action in the Treasury curve was notable,” with Chair Warsh’s remarks ultimately delivering “a meaningful steepening in 2s-10s – a powerful signal for growth.” They describe the move as “a welcome move away from inversion,” stressing that it is one “that carries clear implications for the USD more broadly,” as investors reassess the growth outlook and the currency’s underlying support.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
04:27 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slumps to fresh low since November, near $51.00
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its descending trend for the third straight day, hitting a fresh low since November 2025 during the Asian session on Friday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver attracts sellers for the third straight day and drops to a fresh YTD low on Friday.The bearish technical setup backs the case for an extension of the downward trend.The RSI is flashing oversold conditions, pointing to the risk of a corrective rebound.Silver (XAG/USD) extends its descending trend for the third straight day, hitting a fresh low since November 2025 during the Asian session on Friday. The white metal, however, recovers slightly from the $51.00 neighborhood and currently trades near the $51.50-$51.55 region, still down around 1.25% for the day.From a technical perspective, the decline witnessed over the past month or so has been along a downward parallel channel, which points to a well-established bearish trend. Moreover, momentum indicators hint that sellers have the upper hand despite the risk of short-term corrective bounces amid overstretched conditions.In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 27.21 sits in oversold territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative. Hence, any attempted recovery back above the $52.00 mark is likely to attract fresh sellers near the $52.50-$52.55 region, which, in turn, should cap the XAG/USD near $53.00.A sustained strength beyond the latter could prompt some follow-through short-covering move, which should allow the white metal to surpass $54.00 and test the channel top near $54.52. This is followed by the 50-period SMA at $54.76. The XAG/USD would need to reclaim that to open the door to a more sustained recovery.On the downside, a break below $51.00 would make the commodity vulnerable to accelerating the fall towards the $50.00 psychological mark and expose the lower boundary of the channel at $49.07, which forms a more meaningful floor. A sustained break beneath should pave the way toward deeper downside levels.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)XAG/USD 4-hour chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
04:05 Canadian Dollar strengthens despite easing oil pressure
USD/CAD loses ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3970 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair depreciates despite renewed Middle East diplomatic efforts easing pressure on oil markets, placing downward pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD).
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD moved lower despite easing Middle East tensions pressuring oil and the Canadian Dollar.US Dollar struggles amid easing safe-haven demand due to Middle East tension relief.Strong US GDP and labor data limit deeper USD losses despite falling Fed hike probabilities.USD/CAD loses ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3970 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair depreciates despite renewed Middle East diplomatic efforts easing pressure on oil markets, placing downward pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD).Crude oil prices held steady following a Wall Street Journal report disclosing that US Vice President JD Vance reached out on Wednesday to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in an effort to restart peace talks. US President Donald Trump confirmed he approved Vance's diplomatic outreach, adding that Iran needs assistance with medical supplies and other essential resources.The US Dollar (USD) faces pressure on easing safe-haven demand amid hopes for US-led diplomatic peace talks. Easing Middle East tensions have helped offset oil supply and inflationary concerns, dampening expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike at its December meeting. Traders are now pricing in a nearly 75% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase, down from 84.2% a day prior.However, recent US economic data highlights continued resilience and increased Fed rate hike bets. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product printed at 3.4% YoY, beating expectations of 3.2% and rising from Q2's 2.2% reading, driven by strong consumer spending at 3.8% YoY. Furthermore, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the Core PCE Price Index, rose 3.1% YoY in line with expectations, while initial jobless claims dipped slightly to 194K, reinforcing signs of a heating economy and a tight labor market.Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3970, holding a bearish near-term bias as it remains below the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair has retreated from recent highs and now trades under this short-term and medium-term moving average cluster, suggesting upside is capped for the moment, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36 leans toward weak momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the nine-day EMA at 1.4027, followed by the fifty-day EMA at 1.4057, with a more significant barrier at the horizontal level near 1.4300. On the downside, initial support appears at the 1.3732 horizontal floor, ahead of a deeper structural level at 1.3482, where buyers would be expected to show stronger interest if the current decline extends.USD/CAD: Daily ChartBoC hike seen as modestly hawkish, nudging rate expectations higherStrategists at Scotiabank note that the Bank of Canada’s mid-week move was not only about the decision itself but also about the tone accompanying it. They highlight that the BoC’s hike on Wednesday was “delivered with a modestly hawkish message” which, in their view, “ultimately delivered a slight boost in rate expectations across the curve,” reinforcing support for the Canadian Dollar against its commodity peers.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
03:55 Euro extends post-ECB recovery from YTD low and retakes 1.1200 vs weak USD
The EUR/USD pair builds on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 1.1100 neighborhood, or a fresh low since May 2025, gaining positive traction for the third straight day on Friday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/USD scales higher for the third straight day amid a combination of supporting factors.The ECB’s hawkish outlook acts as a tailwind for the Euro and spot prices amid a weak USD.Fed hike bets and geopolitical uncertainties could limit USD losses and cap gains for the pair.The EUR/USD pair builds on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 1.1100 neighborhood, or a fresh low since May 2025, gaining positive traction for the third straight day on Friday. The momentum lifts spot prices further beyond the 1.1200 mark during the Asian session and is supported by a combination of factors.The shared currency draws support from the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish outlook, signaling that a rate hike in December is firmly in play as inflation risks were on the rise from surging energy costs. The US Dollar (USD) is seen extending its retracement slide from a two-week high amid hopes for Middle East diplomacy and a slump in US bond yields, providing an additional boost to the EUR/USD pair.In the latest developments, US Vice President JD Vance sent a direct letter to the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, in an effort to restart peace negotiations. Furthermore, Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal to end the war with the US and Israel. However, investors remain wary amid escalating hostilities between Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia.Meanwhile, Iran's navy claimed Thursday that four oil tankers had struck sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, adding to worries about supply disruptions in the Middle East. The uncertainty remains supportive of elevated crude oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This could help limit USD losses and cap any meaningful gains for the EUR/USD pair.According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in around a 75% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again in December. The bets were reaffirmed by Thursday's US macro data, which showed that economic growth accelerated to a 3.4% annualized pace during the July-September quarter and Inflation continued to run above the central bank's 2% target in September.The aforementioned fundamental backdrop backs the case for the emergence of some USD dip-buying, making it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the EUR/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for further gains. Traders now look to the euro area's first estimate of third-quarter GDP growth and consumer inflation figures for short-term opportunities.EUR/USD 4-hour chartTechnical AnalysisThe EUR/USD pair stalls its recovery move near the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The failure to reclaim this EMA suggests spot prices remain capped in the short term despite the recent repeated rebounds from the vicinity of the 1.1100 round figure. Hence, a sustained break above the 100-period EMA at 1.1211 would be needed to ease downside pressure and allow for a more constructive recovery phase. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.14% -0.11% -0.19% -0.16% -0.07% 0.00% -0.39% EUR 0.14% 0.02% -0.02% -0.00% 0.09% 0.16% -0.25% GBP 0.11% -0.02% -0.04% -0.04% 0.07% 0.11% -0.28% JPY 0.19% 0.02% 0.04% 0.00% 0.09% 0.15% -0.24% CAD 0.16% 0.00% 0.04% -0.00% 0.08% 0.15% -0.24% AUD 0.07% -0.09% -0.07% -0.09% -0.08% 0.05% -0.33% NZD -0.00% -0.16% -0.11% -0.15% -0.15% -0.05% -0.38% CHF 0.39% 0.25% 0.28% 0.24% 0.24% 0.33% 0.38% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
03:38 British Pound gains due to hawkish BoE outlook, subdued US Dollar
GBP/USD extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3400 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the British Pound (GBP) gains ground on hawkish sentiment surrounding the Bank of England’s (BoE) upcoming policy decision next week.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Hawkish BoE expectations and rate-hike forecasts drive upside momentum for the British Pound.Easing safe-haven demand and Middle East tension relief weigh heavily on the US Dollar.Strong US GDP and labor data limit deeper USD losses despite falling Fed hike probabilities.GBP/USD extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3400 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the British Pound (GBP) gains ground on hawkish sentiment surrounding the Bank of England’s (BoE) upcoming policy decision next week.Traders expect the BoE to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike in November, followed by another increase in February. Meanwhile, UK Finance Minister John Healey announced plans to raise rates on banks, gambling, savers, landlords, and online shopping, while also setting out measures to combat high energy prices.Adding to the GBP/USD pair's upward momentum, the US Dollar (USD) faces pressure as easing safe-haven demand weighs on the greenback amid hopes for US-led diplomatic peace talks. Easing Middle East tensions have helped offset oil supply and inflationary concerns, dampening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at its December meeting. Traders are now pricing in a nearly 75% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase, down from 84.2% a day prior.Despite the Dollar's recent headwinds, recent US economic data highlights continued resilience. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product printed at 3.4% YoY, beating expectations of 3.2% and rising from Q2's 2.2% reading, driven by strong consumer spending at 3.8% YoY. Furthermore, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the Core PCE Price Index, rose 3.1% YoY in line with expectations, while initial jobless claims dipped slightly to 194K, reinforcing signs of a heating economy and a tight labor market.Warsh doubles down on price stability pledge, keeping Dollar bulls engagedWarsh’s press conference tone is firmly hawkish, with the 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score in line relative to the historical average, but reinforced by repeated, uncompromising commitments to delivering 2% PCE price stability. The emphasis that “ensuring price stability is not about a fixed date on a calendar” and that “new monetary medicine” is working, alongside comfort with inflation expectations and tightening financial conditions, signals a data-dependent but resolutely anti-inflation stance that supports the Dollar. References to widening credit spreads, the impact of higher rates on technology and AI, and broadening capex suggest confidence that policy is biting without yet threatening the expansion, which keeps the Fed biased toward maintaining restrictive settings.The FXS Fed Sentiment Index jumped by +14.39 points to 141.89, firmly in hawkish territory and well above the neutral 100 threshold, consistent with the strong anti-inflation messaging captured by the FXS Speechtracker. This elevated index level underscores that markets should interpret Warsh’s remarks as reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate narrative, a backdrop that is typically supportive for the Dollar versus the Euro and Yen. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7138 vs. 6.7147 previous
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7138 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7147 and 6.6548 Reuters estimate.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7138 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7147 and 6.6548 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
03:14 New Zealand Dollar struggles to lure buyers as weak USD limits losses
The NZD/USD pair edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, reversing a part of the previous day's modest uptick and stalling its bounce from a two-week low, touched after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision on Wednesday.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/USD struggles to capitalize on its modest recovery from the post-RBNZ swing low.Falling bond yields and Iram diplomacy hopes weigh on the USD, supporting the pair.The fundamental backdrop favors bearish traders and backs the case for further losses.The NZD/USD pair edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, reversing a part of the previous day's modest uptick and stalling its bounce from a two-week low, touched after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.5630-0.5625 region and remain on track to register heavy losses for the first time in the previous three weeks.The RBNZ unexpectedly left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.75%, disappointing investors who had priced in a near-certain 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike. Four members, including RBNZ Governor Anna Breman, preferred to hold and assess the lag effects of previous rate hikes in July and September, overshadowing the committee's tightening bias and acting as a headwind for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). That said, the downside for the NZD/USD pair seems cushioned as the US Dollar (USD) remains under some selling pressure for the third straight day.Renewed hopes of diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran prompt traders to price out the geopolitical risk premium, which is evident from a steep decline in US bond yields and weighs on the safe-haven buck. That said, investors remain wary amid the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, and escalating hostilities between the Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia. The uncertainty remains supportive of elevated crude oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This could help limit USD losses.According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders see around a 75% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in December. The bets were reaffirmed by Thursday's US macro data, which showed that economic growth accelerated to a 3.4% annualized pace during the third quarter and inflation rose in September. This, in turn, backs the case for the emergence of some USD buying at lower levels, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair remains to the downside and any meaningful recovery attempt is more likely to be sold into. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.20% -0.15% -0.27% -0.15% 0.09% 0.09% -0.48% EUR 0.20% 0.05% -0.09% 0.06% 0.30% 0.28% -0.28% GBP 0.15% -0.05% -0.13% 0.01% 0.25% 0.24% -0.33% JPY 0.27% 0.09% 0.13% 0.14% 0.37% 0.37% -0.20% CAD 0.15% -0.06% -0.01% -0.14% 0.23% 0.23% -0.34% AUD -0.09% -0.30% -0.25% -0.37% -0.23% -0.01% -0.56% NZD -0.09% -0.28% -0.24% -0.37% -0.23% 0.00% -0.56% CHF 0.48% 0.28% 0.33% 0.20% 0.34% 0.56% 0.56% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
02:40 WTI steadies below $102.00 as diplomatic hopes offset Middle East supply risks
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $101.85 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. WTI price holds steady as diplomacy hopes for peace talks between the United States (US) and Iran offset some Middle East supply concerns.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}WTI price flatlines near $101.85 in Friday’s early Asian session.US Vice President Vance reaches out to Iran, according to WSJ.Houthis says they had launched six missile and drone attacks against oil facilities, airports and a military position across Saudi Arabia.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $101.85 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. WTI price holds steady as diplomacy hopes for peace talks between the United States (US) and Iran offset some Middle East supply concerns.The Wall Street Journal reported that US Vice President JD Vance on Wednesday reached out to Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, to revive peace negotiations. Meanwhile, US President Trump said that he approved Vance's outreach, stating that they "need help with medical supplies and various things.”Traders continue to assess the developments surrounding hopes for peace talks between the US-Iran and concerns over Middle East supply disruptions from an escalating regional conflict.Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Thursday that three ballistic missile attacks targeted the Ras Tanura refinery and Saudi Aramco facilities in Abqaiq, both in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, and the Rabigh refinery on the country's Red Sea coast.Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea also said that two other operations targeted King Khalid International Airport in the Saudi capital Riyadh with missiles, and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam in the Eastern Province with a drone.“Those reports of a new spate of attacks helped oil recoup some losses later in the session,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital.Oil trades cautious optimism as Middle East risk and energy inflation unsettle central banksAnalysts at Rabobank highlight that “uncertainty about the Middle East conflict continues to linger over markets,” with President Trump keeping “the option of escalation after the midterms on the table.” They note that US officials have reportedly warned several regional allies “to prepare for potential military strikes after the US polls, and the possibility that Iran may retaliate.”At the same time, Rabobank points to “reports of ongoing diplomatic efforts.” Citing the Wall Street Journal, they observe that Vice President Vance has “reached out to the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council,” reportedly at Trump’s request “in an attempt to restart diplomatic channels.”Against this backdrop, Rabobank judges that “oil markets currently seem to be trading the cautiously optimistic side of this binary outcome,” even as “the protracted energy inflation has global central bankers less optimistic.”
Technical Analysis: WTI maintains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, WTI US Oil extends its bullish bias as price holds well above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger Bands middle SMA. The contract is advancing toward the upper Bollinger Band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 63.84 stays in bullish territory but shy of overbought, suggesting upside momentum remains constructive though vulnerable to bouts of consolidation.On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the upper Bollinger Band at $105.55, where fresh supply could emerge if buyers attempt another leg higher. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day Bollinger Bands middle SMA around $96.15, ahead of a broader demand zone defined by the lower Bollinger Band at $86.78 and the 100-day SMA at $85.50, levels that would be expected to cushion deeper corrective pullbacks.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Technical Analysis: WTI maintains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, WTI US Oil extends its bullish bias as price holds well above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger Bands middle SMA. The contract is advancing toward the upper Bollinger Band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 63.84 stays in bullish territory but shy of overbought, suggesting upside momentum remains constructive though vulnerable to bouts of consolidation.On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the upper Bollinger Band at $105.55, where fresh supply could emerge if buyers attempt another leg higher. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day Bollinger Bands middle SMA around $96.15, ahead of a broader demand zone defined by the lower Bollinger Band at $86.78 and the 100-day SMA at $85.50, levels that would be expected to cushion deeper corrective pullbacks.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
01:46 Australian Dollar breaks below 100-day SMA after hot US inflation data
The Australian Dollar weakens against the US Dollar on Thursday after encountering a key resistance confluence at the 50- and 200-day SMAs, while strong US data reaffirmed the economy’s strength, which could increase the chances of higher interest rates. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7020.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}AUD/USD slips to 0.7020 after rejection at key moving averages.Break below 100-day SMA at 0.7032 reinforces bearish technical outlook.Strong US GDP and elevated Core PCE inflation pressure Aussie buyers.The Australian Dollar weakens against the US Dollar on Thursday after encountering a key resistance confluence at the 50- and 200-day SMAs, while strong US data reaffirmed the economy’s strength, which could increase the chances of higher interest rates. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7020.AUD/USD retreats from the 50- and 200-day SMA confluence, with a break below 0.7032 signaling further downsideWall Street ended the session in the red, reflecting a sour market mood. US data revealed that the economy grew 3.4% YoY in Q3 2026, exceeding forecasts and prior readings of 3.2% and 2.2%, respectively. At the same time, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE, increased by 3.1% in September, as expected, up from 3% in the prior month.The data tranche included Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 24, which dipped from 195K to 194K, below forecasts of a rise to 199K.On the data, AUD/USD extended its losses below the 100-day SMA at 0.7032, opening the door to further downside. Worth noting that investors had trimmed their Fed hawkish bets compared to Wednesday. At the time of writing, the odds are 76% down from 84% a day ago, revealed Prime Terminal.This happened amid rising hopes of diplomatic progress in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, fell by about 0.13% to $102.71 as the Asian session is underway.US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield retreating 6.5 basis points to 4.907%. In part due to the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh lack of forward guidance, with him focused mostly on operations rather than monetary policy.Warsh said that the appropriate number of meetings for the FOMC is eight, but in 2027 there would be seven monetary policy decisions, followed by six in 2028.In Australia, Thursday’s schedule was empty, except for RBA Governor Bullock speech, in which she said that inflation is far too high, recognising that CPI is consistent with upside inflation risks.On Friday, the Aussie’s docket will feature the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Q3 on an annual basis. In the previous quarter, the reading was 3.6%. The US calendar will feature a speech by San Francisco’s Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookAUD/USD daily chartIn the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7024, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the latest reading of the simple moving average triple at 0.7069. The pair is slipping back toward the lower end of the recent range, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 51.33 sits just above neutral, hinting at modest, rather than decisive, upside momentum amid prevailing downside structural pressure.On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the clustered 50/100/200-period simple moving averages around 0.7069, followed by the horizontal barrier near 0.7198, with the broader downward trend line from 0.8015 reinforcing a cap on rallies at higher levels. On the downside, price action is underpinned by a series of upward-sloping support trend lines drawn from the 0.68–0.69 area, suggesting that while the bias stays bearish below the moving averages, dips into this rising band would likely attract buying interest before any deeper deterioration in the daily structure.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Australian Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.29% -0.06% 0.46% -0.39% 0.19% 1.17% -0.07% EUR -0.29% -0.38% 0.12% -0.76% -0.18% 0.82% -0.42% GBP 0.06% 0.38% 0.44% -0.38% 0.20% 1.26% -0.07% JPY -0.46% -0.12% -0.44% -0.82% -0.32% 0.75% -0.62% CAD 0.39% 0.76% 0.38% 0.82% 0.53% 1.52% 0.31% AUD -0.19% 0.18% -0.20% 0.32% -0.53% 1.00% -0.45% NZD -1.17% -0.82% -1.26% -0.75% -1.52% -1.00% -1.26% CHF 0.07% 0.42% 0.07% 0.62% -0.31% 0.45% 1.26% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
01:40 Yemen's Houthis say they attack Saudi Ras Tanura refinery, aviation, military targets
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Thursday that it had launched six missile and drone attacks against oil facilities, airports and a military position across Saudi Arabia, Xinhua News Agency reported.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Thursday that it had launched six missile and drone attacks against oil facilities, airports and a military position across Saudi Arabia, Xinhua News Agency reported.Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea stated that three ballistic missile attacks targeted the Ras Tanura refinery and Saudi Aramco facilities in Abqaiq, both in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, and the Rabigh refinery on the country's Red Sea coast.The source said two other operations targeted King Khalid International Airport in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, with missiles, and King Fahd International Airport in Dammam in the Eastern Province with a drone.Houthi military spokesman said that the attacks were launched in response to recent Saudi strikes on Houthi-held areas in Yemen.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 0.54% on the day at $101.80. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
01:33 Breaking: Japan’s Tokyo CPI inflation climbs 2.8% in October
The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October rose 2.8% YoY as compared to 2.7% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}
The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October rose 2.8% YoY as compared to 2.7% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday.
More to come....
Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
More to come....
Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
01:18 Gold falls to near $4,000 as US PCE data reinforces December Fed hike odds
Gold price (XAU/USD) falls to around $4,015 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal loses ground as US inflation data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike later this year.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price tumbles to near $4,015 in Friday’s early Asian session.The US PCE inflation accelerated in September.Traders see 74.9% odds of a Fed interest rate hike in December.Gold price (XAU/USD) falls to around $4,015 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal loses ground as US inflation data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike later this year.The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index climbed 0.5% in September after a 0.3% rise in August, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis showed on Thursday. This figure came in line with market expectations.“A stubbornly high inflationary outlook that continues to run hotter than Fed targets is paving the way for thoughts that the Fed will raise rates at the December meeting. That’s ... the main drag on the gold market right now, and today’s PCE report did nothing to allay that fear,” David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, said.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left interest rates unchanged in a range of 3.75% to 4% at its October policy meeting on Wednesday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not offer guidance on the outlook, but acknowledged the central bank had not achieved price stability. "We're working on it," Warsh said.Markets are now pricing in about a 74.9% chance of a US rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.Gold resilience contrasts with pressure on industrial precious metalsAccording to TD Securities, "industrial metals struggle" in the wake of the latest FOMC meeting, even as gold continues to show relative strength. The bank notes that "while gold remains fairly resilient post-FOMC, industrial precious metals are skewing to the downside, with silver and PGMs materially underperforming as macro headwinds and the prospect of tightening policy weigh on demand outlooks." This divergence underscores a more defensive tone across the complex, with investors favouring gold over more cyclically exposed precious metals.Warsh underscores unwavering 2% price stability goal, keeping Dollar bulls alertWarsh’s press conference tone is firmly hawkish, with the 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score in line with the established baseline, underscoring continuity rather than a regime shift. The emphasis that “ensuring price stability is not about a fixed date on a calendar” signals a data-dependent, outcome-focused stance, reinforcing commitment to fully “quashing inflation” even as the Fed describes “new monetary medicine” and the September removal of accommodation as beginning to work. Repeated confidence in inflation expectations “going the right way,” alongside a hard 2% PCE target and “no ifs and or buts” on delivering price stability, points to a Fed that is not yet contemplating an early pivot, a backdrop typically supportive for the Dollar versus the Euro and Yen.The FXS Fed Sentiment Index’s +14.39-point jump to 141.89 marks a clear hawkish reinforcement, pushing the gauge further above the 100 neutral line and confirming that this communication leans more restrictive than recent Fed messaging. In combination with the steady 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score, the elevated FXS Fed Sentiment Index level signals to FX markets that the policy bias remains toward maintaining tighter conditions, a configuration that tends to underpin the Dollar against major peers.
Technical Analysis: Gold keeps a bearish vibe under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price is edging just above the Bollinger lower band, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.23 stays in bearish territory but away from oversold, hinting at persistent downside pressure rather than capitulation.On the downside, immediate support is located at the Bollinger lower band around $3,995, where sellers may pause. On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the Bollinger middle band near $4,115, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,215 and the upper Bollinger band at $4,230, levels that would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way for a more sustained recovery.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Technical Analysis: Gold keeps a bearish vibe under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price is edging just above the Bollinger lower band, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.23 stays in bearish territory but away from oversold, hinting at persistent downside pressure rather than capitulation.On the downside, immediate support is located at the Bollinger lower band around $3,995, where sellers may pause. On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the Bollinger middle band near $4,115, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,215 and the upper Bollinger band at $4,230, levels that would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way for a more sustained recovery.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
01:02 A split BoE votes on November 5 with the Pound near 1.34
The Euro dropped to a new low on the European Central Bank's (ECB) hold, and the Pound didn't, so GBP/USD is up more than EUR/USD. GBP/USD's session low, just under 1.3300, came before the ECB's decision, and it has climbed since ECB President Lagarde's press conference began.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD climbs back to just under 1.3400, its second gain in a row.The Dollar falls after the ECB, and the Pound gains more than the Euro does.The BoE's decision is due Thursday, November 5, after a 6-3 vote for a hold.The Euro dropped to a new low on the European Central Bank's (ECB) hold, and the Pound didn't, so GBP/USD is up more than EUR/USD. GBP/USD's session low, just under 1.3300, came before the ECB's decision, and it has climbed since ECB President Lagarde's press conference began. It's trading just under 1.3400, near its session high.The Bank of England (BoE) has held the UK's Bank Rate at 3.75% since December 2025, and three of its nine policymakers voted for a hike in September. The Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan have all raised rates in 2026. The Bank Rate is level with the bottom of the Fed's 3.75%-4.00% range, so GBP/USD's rate gap is a quarter-point at most.A Citi and YouGov survey put Britons' expected inflation for the coming year at 4.2% in October, down from 4.5%, and GBP/USD barely moved on it. The long-term expectation fell to 4.0%, the level a quarter-point hike on November 5 would take the Bank Rate to.On the calendarThe BoE's decision and quarterly Monetary Policy Report are due at 12:00 GMT on November 5, and BoE Governor Bailey speaks at 12:30 GMT. Two more votes for a hike would make a majority and move the UK side of GBP/USD's rate gap for the first time since December 2025.In the US, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is due at 13:45 GMT on Friday, forecast at 56.1 after 58.8. September job openings come on November 3 at 15:00 GMT, after 7.079 million, and both feed into the US side of the gap.On the chartsGBP/USD's 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is just above 1.3350, and the pair is back above it and short of the 200-day. The two-day climb has recovered about three-quarters of the slide from the October 22 high. GBP/USD has won back a little under half of its drop from the August high to the October 14 low.GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
00:59 Euro area GDP is next for a Euro rebounding from a new low
European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde said another hike in December remains likely, and EUR/USD has climbed from below its October 14 low to above Wednesday's high.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD rises to just under 1.1200 after dipping below its October 14 low.ECB President Lagarde says a December hike is likely after a unanimous hold.Euro area inflation for October is due Wednesday, November 4, after 3.8%.European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde said another hike in December remains likely, and EUR/USD has climbed from below its October 14 low to above Wednesday's high. It dropped to just above 1.1100 before turning and is trading just under 1.1200, near its session high and on track for a second straight gain.The ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.50%, after two hikes since the Iran war pushed energy prices up. ECB President Lagarde said a third hike was discussed before a unanimous decision to hold, and EUR/USD began its climb while she took questions. Money markets put the odds of that hike coming in December above 80%.ECB President Lagarde said in a video posted before the decision that she'll leave on February 7, about nine months before her term ends. EUR/USD's session low came on the rate decision that followed, and Goldman Sachs said the ECB is likely to behave the same way whoever replaces her.On the calendarThe euro area's first estimate of third-quarter growth is out on Friday at 10:00 GMT, with 0.2% forecast after 0.6%, and ECB Chief Economist Lane speaks at 16:10 GMT. October's euro area inflation comes at 10:00 GMT on November 4, after 3.8% in September. All three bear on the December hike.The US Employment Cost Index for the third quarter comes out on Friday at 12:30 GMT, with 0.8% forecast after 0.9%. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index follows at 15:00 GMT on November 4, after 54.9, the day after the US midterm elections. Both feed into the Fed's next move in December.On the chartsThe bounce off the session low has recovered about an eighth of the slide from the August peak. EUR/USD is still about 150 pips under its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 50-day crossed under the 200-day in mid-September, and the two are about 1.5 cents apart.EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
00:48 Tokyo inflation and a BoJ rate decision come next for a flat Yen
US growth beat its forecast, and the Dollar is still lower against the Yen after results from Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) disappointed. USD/JPY reached its session high just above 158.00 around the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY eases to just above 157.50 after Amazon and Intel results disappoint.US growth beats its forecast, but futures already price a December Fed hike.The BoJ's decision is due Friday, and most analysts expect a hike in December.US growth beat its forecast, and the Dollar is still lower against the Yen after results from Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) disappointed. USD/JPY reached its session high just above 158.00 around the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision. It has fallen twice from there and is trading just above 157.50, near the bottom of its session range.US growth ran at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter against a 3.2% forecast, and core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) inflation matched its 3.1% forecast. USD/JPY barely moved on either. Futures priced a December Fed hike near 85% after Wednesday's 10-2 hold, a move that would lift the US side of USD/JPY's rate gap to 4.00%-4.25%.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) began a two-day meeting on Thursday with its rate at 1.25%, and most analysts in a Reuters poll expect 1.5% in December. The Fed and the BoJ each raised rates by a quarter-point in September, which left USD/JPY's rate gap exactly where it was, at 2.50-2.75 points.On the calendarOctober's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Tokyo is out on Thursday at 23:30 GMT, with prices outside fresh food forecast up 2.6% after 2.7%. The BoJ's decision follows on Friday at no fixed hour, and BoJ Governor Ueda holds a news conference at 06:30 GMT and speaks again at 16:00 GMT on November 6. All of it bears on the timing of the BoJ's next hike.San Francisco Fed President Daly and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speak at 16:00 GMT and 16:30 GMT on Friday. October's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is due at 13:30 GMT on November 6, after a 29K gain in September, and feeds the Fed's December decision.On the chartsUSD/JPY is trading on its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the 50-day slightly higher. The climb off the early-September low just under 153.00 stopped just above 159.00 on September 24, and the pair hasn't been back above that high since. It has recovered a little over two-fifths of its drop from the late-July high just under 164.00.USD/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
00:44 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls reclaim 50-day SMA, eye 213.00
The Pound Sterling rises by over 0.32% against the Japanese Yen as the pair clears the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 210.77, putting in play a chance of testing the 211.00 psychological figure.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/JPY breaks above 50-day SMA at 210.77, reinforcing bullish momentum.Five consecutive higher daily highs signal strengthening buying pressure.Break above 211.00 exposes 211.99 and 200-day SMA at 212.92.The Pound Sterling rises by over 0.32% against the Japanese Yen as the pair clears the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 210.77, putting in play a chance of testing the 211.00 psychological figure.GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookAt the time of writing, GBP/JPY is closing in on 211.00, following three days of muted price action. Worth noting that the cross-pair cleared to fresh highs in each of the last five days, an indication that buyers are gaining momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) drifts higher, an indication that buyers are in charge.If GBP/JPY extends its gains above 211.00, the next stop is the October 22 high of 211.99. Above the next area of interest is the 200-day SMA at 212.92, followed by the 100-day SMA at 213.19.For a bearish reversal, sellers will look for a break below the October 28 swing low of 209.57. This opens the path towards 208.01, the September 25 daily low.GBP/JPY Price Chart – DailyGBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
00:32 Thai Baht: Double-top signals potential reversal against US Dollar – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept rates at 1% while upgrading growth forecasts and flagging inflation risks from Oil and El Niño. They expect policy to stay on hold near term, with a cumulative 50bp hike in 1H27.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong report that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept rates at 1% while upgrading growth forecasts and flagging inflation risks from Oil and El Niño. They expect policy to stay on hold near term, with a cumulative 50bp hike in 1H27. A double-top pattern in USD/THB points to key support at 33.62 and resistance near 33.85/90.BoT on hold as pattern forms"USD/THB ease slightly away from its recent highs overnight. In policy decision, BoT kept its policy rate unchanged at 1%, in line with our house view. The central bank revised its growth forecasts higher for 2026 and 2027, supported by stronger exports and investment associated with the AI cycle.""We maintain a slight-cautious near-term view on THB. The growth upgrades are encouraging, while BoT appears comfortable keeping policy accommodative given the uneven recovery. Our economists expect BoT to keep policy rate on hold on 23 Dec MPC but will continue to monitor the tone of the statement to assess whether there has been a shift to a slightly more hawkish bias.""Our house view remains comfortable with the view that BoT will normalise its policy rate, by hiking a cumulative 50bp in 1H27. For now, external developments remain more relevant for THB direction. A pullback in USD and oil prices, alongside stabilisation in gold, may offer some respite, although renewed energy-price pressures remain a risk.""Daily momentum is flat while RSI eased lower. We had earlier flagged double-top pattern. A double-top bearish reversal would see immediate support coming in at 33.62 (21 DMA), 33.25/30 (50, 100 DMAs). Resistance at 33.85/90 levels (doubletop)."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
00:30 Bank of Japan to leave interest rates steady at 1.25%
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to announce its monetary policy decision on Friday at around 02:30 GMT.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The BoJ is expected to hold interest rates steady at 1.25% on Friday.The interest of investors will be on the BoJ’s future rate path..USD/JPY has been consolidating within 156-159 for the last six weeks.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to announce its monetary policy decision on Friday at around 02:30 GMT.Like the Federal Reserve (Fed), financial markets are confident that the BoJ will leave interest rates unchanged, after raising them by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.25% in the September policy meeting. This is the highest interest rate level seen in 31 years in Japan. So far this year, the BoJ has delivered two quarter-to-a-percent interest rate hikes.Commerzbank said in a note that markets anticipate “the overnight rate remaining steady, and none of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expects a hike on Friday”. This consensus view leaves investors focusing more on the monetary policy statement, the central bank’s outlook report and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference for the policy outlook into year-end.Ueda leaned hawkish as AI demand and inflation near BoJ goalsBoJ Governor Ueda’s remarks after the September policy meeting have shown his concern about energy-driven inflationary risks. Ueda has also stressed the importance of anchoring core inflation near the 2% target. He has reiterated several times that the central bank will remain on the monetary tightening path.Ueda’s speech on October 16 was scored at 8.2/10 versus by FXStreet’s Speechtracker, signaling a modest hawkish tilt compared to Ueda’s average 7.5 score. Ueda stressed that underlying inflation is “quite close” to 2% and that economic and price moves are roughly in line with forecasts. The commitment to “continue to raise interest rates” while financial conditions remain accommodative, and the plan to discuss whether to tweak the assessment of inflation approaching 2%, reinforced a gradual normalization bias that supports a firmer Yen backdrop.Ueda’s remark that there is “no big gap” between the Bank of Japan’s view on AI-driven inflationary pressure and that of global policymakers, alongside noting some counterparts are more bullish on AI demand, underscores upside risks to prices that justify keeping a tightening path on the table. By explicitly tying the timing and pace of future rate hikes to FX, AI demand and Middle East developments, the speech framed a data- and risk-sensitive reaction function that is incrementally supportive for the Japanese Yen, especially if AI-related demand and external shocks sustain inflation around the 2% target.These comments suggest that BoJ’s Ueda will remain hawkish on the monetary policy outlook and will highlight the importance of keeping price pressures anchored near the central bank’s 2% target.What are expectations for December’s policy meeting?According to the October 13-19 Reuters’ poll, nearly 70% of economists, 54 of 78, expected the BoJ to raise its policy rate to 1.5% this quarter, almost double the share in the previous poll, Reuters reported. The consensus is for another hike before the year end.How can USD/JPY react to the BoJ’s decision?The BoJ’s interest rate decision itself appears to be a non-event for the USD/JPY pair, given that market participants are highly confident about policy rates remaining steady. What will be impactful would be the tone in the BoJ’s monetary policy outlook and any cues on where they see the terminal rate.Any indication from the BoJ that it could approach the terminal rate faster would be favorable for the Japanese Yen (JPY). On the contrary, signs from the Japanese central bank that it would pursue a gradual monetary tightening path could have little impact on the Japanese currency. Therefore, risks are moderately tilted to the downside for USD/JPY.USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Trading within range, volatility contractedTrend: At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades at around 157.80. The USD/JPY pair has remained in a limited range between 156.08 and 159.04 for over a month. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 157.77 is flat-lined, reflecting that the overall trend is sideways.Momentum: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been inside the 40.00-60.00 range for a month, indicating a sharp volatility contraction and reinforcing the current consolidation.Support: On the downside ,the lower-end of the above-mentioned range at 156.08 is the immediate support. The pair would get exposed to the September 14 high at 155.00 if it fails to hold 156.08. Resistance: Looking up, the immediate hurdle for the pair is the upper-end of the consolidation near 159.04; a decisive break above that would increase the likelihood of further upside towards 160.00, followed by the September high near 160.40.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)
ขอต้อนรับเข้าสู่การสนับสนุนแบบไลฟ์ของ FXTM
โปรดเลือกวิธีการที่คุณต้องการให้ติดต่อ
| 1 | ติดตั้งแอพฯ WhatsApp |
| 2 | |
| 3 | เริ่มแชทได้เลย! |
| 1 | เพิ่มหมายเลขต่อไปนี้ของ FXTM ลงในรายชื่อผู้ติดต่อของคุณ: Like and follow FXTM on Facebook. |
| 2 | |
| 3 | Find FXTM by searching on the top search bar. |
| 4 | |
| 5 | เริ่มแชทได้เลย! |
| 1 | ติดตั้งแอพฯ Telegram |
| 2 | |
| 3 | เริ่มแชทได้เลย! |
หากคุณต้องการติดต่อทีมงานฝ่ายสนับสนุนลูกค้าของเราในช่วงวันหยุดสุดสัปดาห์ พวกเขาพร้อมให้บริการทางไลฟ์แชท, Viber, Telegram และ Facebook Messenger ในวันเสาร์ตั้งแต่เวลา 11:00 ถึง 16:00 และในวันอาทิตย์ตั้งแต่เวลา 12:00 ถึง 20:00 เวลาทั้งหมดเป็นเวลา GMT+2 (GMT+3 ในช่วง DST)
 | |
สแกน QR Code นี้เพื่อเอาไว้ติดต่อเรา! ! | |
| 1 | ดาวน์โหลดและเปิดบัญชี WeChat |
| 2 | เลือก "เพิ่มรายชื่อผู้ติดต่อ" |
| 3 | เลือก "สแกน QR Code" |
| 4 | สแกนโค้ดนี้เพื่อเอาไว้ติดต่อเรา! |