외환거래 뉴스 타임라인

04:22 US President Donald Trump says Iran talks to begin Monday after canceling attack
US President Donald Trump said that fresh round of Iran talks would begin Monday after he cancelled a planned attack on Iran partially in response to pleas from US allies in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Bloomberg reported on Monday.

04:19 Euro holds near mid-1.1500s, highest level since June 17 as receding Fed hike bets hit USD
The EUR/USD pair builds on last week's breakout momentum above the 1.1460-1.1470 horizontal barrier and attracts buyers for the fifth straight day on Monday.

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Spot prices climb to a fresh high since June 17, beyond mid-1.1500s during the Asian session and seem poised to appreciate further amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).In fact, the USD Index (DXY), with tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, prolongs last week's retracement slide from the vicinity of the year-to-date as a slump in crude oil prices force traders to temper bets on extreme Fed tightening. US President Donald Trump said that he will order American forces to hold off on new strikes against Iran, claiming Mideast allies have reached the parameters of a deal to end the 5-month-old war. This, along with the OPEC+ decision on Sunday to increase production in September, is seen weighing heavily on crude oil prices.Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad argues that the recent strength in the Dollar is losing momentum, with the bank now judging that “the USD rally from May has run its course, with DXY poised to retreat back into a 96.00-100.00 range.” BBH contends that the earlier “tailwind to USD from resilient US economic activity” is increasingly being offset by policy concerns, specifically that “Fed Chair Kevin Warsh failure to turn tough inflation rhetoric into a credible policy” is “increasing the risk the Fed falls behind the curve in containing inflation.”Apart from this, aggressive follow-through short-covering in the Japanese Yen (JPY) turns out to be another factor undermining the USD. The Euro, on the other hand, continues to draw support from resilient Eurozone inflation data, which backs the case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates again in September. This, in turn, validates the near-term positive outlook for the EUR/USD pair as traders now look forward to important US macro releases scheduled at the beginning of a new month, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI later this Monday, for fresh impetus.Societe Generale’s Sam Cartwright argues that the latest inflation figures, taken together with the “solid 2Q26 GDP print,” strengthen the policy case for further tightening. In his view, “today’s release should support another ECB rate hike in September,” as resilient growth and slightly firmer price pressures give the central bank room to maintain a hawkish stance. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.12% 0.00% -0.83% -0.00% -0.23% -0.35% -0.00% EUR 0.12% 0.11% -0.74% 0.11% -0.13% -0.19% 0.08% GBP -0.00% -0.11% -0.82% -0.03% -0.24% -0.30% -0.01% JPY 0.83% 0.74% 0.82% 0.76% 0.50% 0.46% 0.71% CAD 0.00% -0.11% 0.03% -0.76% -0.24% -0.29% -0.05% AUD 0.23% 0.13% 0.24% -0.50% 0.24% -0.07% 0.24% NZD 0.35% 0.19% 0.30% -0.46% 0.29% 0.07% 0.30% CHF 0.00% -0.08% 0.01% -0.71% 0.05% -0.24% -0.30% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7898 vs. 6.7894 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7898 compared to Friday's fix of 6.7894.

04:02 Gold recovers above $4,050 as Trump pauses Iran strikes
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers to around $4,060 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges higher amid hopes of a breakthrough between the United States (US) and Iran after reports that US President Donald Trump has held off Iran strikes.

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Trump holds off on Iran strikes on the pledge that the Hormuz agreement is close. Fed holds interest rates steady and hints at a rate hike later this year. Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers to around $4,060 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges higher amid hopes of a breakthrough between the United States (US) and Iran after reports that US President Donald Trump has held off Iran strikes. Trump cancelled planned military strikes against Iran on the basis of “rapidly” reaching a deal on its nuclear programme and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, per Bloomberg. US President paused the strikes in expectation of a breakthrough and in response to requests from Tehran and other countries in the region, he claimed on his Truth Social platform on Saturday. Traders will closely monitor US-Iran developments. Any positive progress between the two countries could provide some support to the yellow metal. However, uncertainty remains high as Iranian officials said that Trump’s claim that Tehran had requested a pause “was nothing but a new lie” and that the Iranian armed forces were “on high alert and ready for any eventuality,” per Iran’s Mehr news agency. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East might cap the upside for the yellow metal as it could push crude oil prices up and prompt central banks to hold rates at elevated levels for longer.Last week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to leave the interest rates unchanged in its current target range between 3.50% and 3.75%. During the press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pledged an unwavering commitment to bring inflation down. It’s worth noting that Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.Oil rebound revives inflation worries and supports goldCommerzbank’s FX Research team notes that the latest geopolitical flare-up has had a swift impact on energy markets, with “the renewed escalation largely reversed the sharp decline in oil prices seen earlier this week and reignited concerns over the inflation outlook.” In their view, the combination of a Brent rebound, lingering inflation risks and the Fed’s focus on price stability is encouraging investors to re-engage with Gold as a hedge against both inflation and market volatility, alongside higher long-end US yields. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

03:55 Breaking: Japanese Yen rises above 155.50 as Japan announces joint intervention with the US.
The USD/JPY pair tumbles to near 155.45, the lowest since May 6, during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some buyers following reports of more joint intervention by the United States (US) and Japan.

03:45 Japan’s Mimura: Joint intervention could mark peak of US-Japan currency partnership
Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said that joint intervention could mark the peak of US-Japan currency partnership, Reuters reported on Monday.

03:44 WTI holds losses near $79.00 amid Middle East peace talks, OPEC+ output expansion
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price gains ground after opening with a bearish gap, remaining nearly 7% down to trade around $79.30 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday.

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This sharp drop in oil prices followed a late Saturday post on Truth Social by US President Donald Trump, who stated that Iran and other Middle Eastern nations had requested additional time to finalize an agreement. According to the post, the proposed deal would lead to the immediate, complete, and total reopening of the vital strait and effectively eliminate Iran's nuclear threat.Meanwhile, shipping data on Monday revealed contrasting developments in regional waters: while two tankers carrying Saudi oil successfully navigated the Bab el-Mandeb Strait out of the Red Sea over the weekend, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed significantly due to reported vessel strikes. Further highlighting the ongoing security risks, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations confirmed three additional tanker attacks since Saturday.Adding to the shifting supply dynamics, major OPEC+ producers approved a modest increase in production quotas. This decision completes the group's planned restoration of the supply cuts originally introduced in 2023, while also establishing room to further boost output once the conflict in the Middle East reaches a resolution.However, Strategists at BNY highlighted on Friday that the geopolitical backdrop has deteriorated further, noting that “the US and Iran resumed missile exchanges, dashing hopes for a quick end to the five-month conflict.” They point out that the confrontation is increasingly regional in scope, with Jordan reporting it “intercepted Iranian missiles for a second straight day,” while Kuwait has “reported a deadly strike in the north.” BNY also flags the growing spillover into key trade routes, as “drone attacks also set fires on ships at Egypt’s Damietta port, with investigators saying the cause was a drone,” underscoring the rising risks to Gulf shipping lanes and energy flows. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

03:35 Japan's Katayama: Conducted coordinated yen-purchasing intervention with US
Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that Japanese authorities conducted coordinated Yen-buying intervention with the United States (US) on Friday, adding that officials will not hesitate to carry out more foreign exchange (FX) intervention with Washington, Bloomberg reported.

03:16 Japanese Yen softens, traders watch further US-Japan joint currency intervention
The USD/JPY pair recovers some lost ground to near 157.65, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian trading hours on Monday.

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Traders remain on high alert for further intervention from the US and Japan after coordinated operations in Tokyo and New York last week triggered a dramatic rebound in the currency.Bloomberg reported that Japan’s Finance Ministry and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are now working together to a degree unseen in decades to shore up the currency. Bessent said that the US wouldn’t hesitate to step into the market again. Meanwhile, Japan confirmed the first joint intervention with the US in currency markets in 15 years, according to a statement by Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.On the other hand, uncertainty in the Middle East could boost the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). US President Donald Trump cancelled planned military strikes against Iran based on “rapidly” reaching a deal on its nuclear programme and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Nonetheless, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that Iranian officials said that Trump’s claim that Tehran had requested a pause “was nothing but a new lie” and that the Iranian armed forces were “on high alert and ready for any eventuality.” Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

03:02 Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 52 above expectations (51.7) in July

02:43 OPEC+ agrees to boost September production by 188,000 barrels per day
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed on Sunday to boost oil production by 188,000 barrels a day (bpd) from September, against a backdrop of disruption caused by the Mideast war.

02:32 Australian Dollar gathers strength to near 0.7050 as Trump cancels Iran strikes
The AUD/USD pair gains ground to near 0.7040 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on improved risk sentiment after the reports that US President Donald Trump holds off Iran strikes.

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on improved risk sentiment after the reports that US President Donald Trump holds off Iran strikes. Traders await the release of China’s RatingDog Manufacturing g Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, which is due later in the day.Bloomberg reported that Trump cancelled planned military strikes against Iran on the basis of “rapidly” reaching a deal on its nuclear program and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump paused the strikes in expectation of a breakthrough and in response to requests from Iran and other countries in the region, he claimed on his Truth Social platform on Saturday.Traders will closely monitor US-Iran developments. Any positive progress between two countries could provide some support to the riskier assets, such as the Aussie.However, uncertainty remains high as Iranian officials said that Trump’s claim that Tehran had requested a pause “was nothing but a new lie” and that the Iranian armed forces were “on high alert and ready for any eventuality,” per Iran’s Mehr news agency. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East could boost the safe-haven flows, lifting the Greenback and acting as a headwind for the pair.The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish tone has prompted markets to continue to fully price in one more rate ‌hike this year, which would take the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.6%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock last week warned that underlying inflation remained too high and a further slowdown in domestic demand may be required to tame prices.Bullock further stated that policymakers were prepared to raise interest rates again if needed. "The Board is prepared to act as required to achieve its mandate, including by increasing the cash rate further if needed,” said Bullock.RBA keeps pressure on prices as labour market stays resilientAnalysts at BNY highlight that RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter reiterated the need to maintain a restrictive stance, noting that inflation “remains above the 2-3% target band” and stressing that the RBA must “keep pressure on price growth so higher inflation expectations do not become entrenched.” On the labour side, BNY reports that Hunter characterised conditions as “still somewhat tight,” with job growth having held up “not too badly” over the first half of the year, underscoring the resilience of employment despite softer headline price data. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

01:45 New Zealand Building Permits s.a. (MoM) climbed from previous -4% to -3.6% in June

01:37 Middle East War updates: Trump holds off Iran strikes on pledge Hormuz deal is close
Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the Middle East war that occurred over the weekend, which are expected to have a significant impact on markets in the upcoming week.

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04:19 Euro holds near mid-1.1500s, highest level since June 17 as receding Fed hike bets hit USD The EUR/USD pair builds on last week's breakout momentum above the 1.1460-1.1470 horizontal barrier and attracts buyers for the fifth straight day on Monday.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7898 vs. 6.7894 previous On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7898 compared to Friday's fix of 6.7894.

03:44 WTI holds losses near $79.00 amid Middle East peace talks, OPEC+ output expansion West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price gains ground after opening with a bearish gap, remaining nearly 7% down to trade around $79.30 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday.

03:16 Japanese Yen softens, traders watch further US-Japan joint currency intervention The USD/JPY pair recovers some lost ground to near 157.65, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian trading hours on Monday.

03:02 Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 52 above expectations (51.7) in July

02:43 OPEC+ agrees to boost September production by 188,000 barrels per day The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed on Sunday to boost oil production by 188,000 barrels a day (bpd) from September, against a backdrop of disruption caused by the Mideast war.