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20:54 Fed’s Daly warns AI is fueling inflation, sees more rate hikes ahead
San Francisco Federal Reserve (Fed) President Mary Daly commented that there is no doubt AI has fueled price pressure and that it is “having limited impact on the labour market.”
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San Francisco Federal Reserve (Fed) President Mary Daly commented that there is no doubt AI has fueled price pressure and that it is “having limited impact on the labour market.”In a keynote speech at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Daly said there is a risk that AI could contribute to inflation and that the prevailing bias is that “further tightening will be needed.” Daly added that inflation is bleeding into services and that “inflation pressure is up, not down”.Key takeaways:Economy being driven by technology boom
AI pipeline is deep, so continues even if it slows
No doubt of AI-fueled price pressure
AI is contributing directly only a modest amount to inflation
AI having limited impact on labor market
We have an inflation problem, but AI is not doing most of the driving
There is risk AI could contribute more to inflation
There has been repricing in AI valuations, but it's not the unwinding of interest or enthusiasm
That suggests there's not a risk to growth
There is positive momentum for productivity growth
A lot of work being done that we might see more productivity growth in next 1-3 years
It's too early to say when AI productivity impact will arrive
Stable labor market, positive growth, productivity growth, and high inflation
We have to focus on bringing inflation down
Just because we have to fight inflation problem now doesn't mean we should ignore potential that productivity growth could be disinflationary
Inflation shocks can compound, we can't be complacent
Bias is that further tightening will be needed
Inflation is bleeding into services, and once services inflation rises it's sticky
I'm comfortable with September hike, further tightening needed
Inflation pressure is up, not down
I increasingly hear firms say they're going to pass on higher costs
But markets don't do the work of the Fed, and keeping prices stable is the job of the Fed
Financial markets are in alignment with where Fed needs to be
Tighter financial conditions give us more time to make decisions
Exactly how much Fed tightening and when is a decision we don't need to make now
We have many, many quarters to make policy decisions US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.33% 0.33% -0.05% 0.04% 0.64% 0.33% 0.32% EUR -0.33% 0.00% -0.37% -0.29% 0.32% -0.00% -0.02% GBP -0.33% -0.01% -0.36% -0.28% 0.32% -0.00% -0.02% JPY 0.05% 0.37% 0.36% 0.08% 0.68% 0.36% 0.36% CAD -0.04% 0.29% 0.28% -0.08% 0.60% 0.29% 0.28% AUD -0.64% -0.32% -0.32% -0.68% -0.60% -0.30% -0.32% NZD -0.33% 0.00% 0.00% -0.36% -0.29% 0.30% 0.00% CHF -0.32% 0.02% 0.02% -0.36% -0.28% 0.32% -0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
AI pipeline is deep, so continues even if it slows
No doubt of AI-fueled price pressure
AI is contributing directly only a modest amount to inflation
AI having limited impact on labor market
We have an inflation problem, but AI is not doing most of the driving
There is risk AI could contribute more to inflation
There has been repricing in AI valuations, but it's not the unwinding of interest or enthusiasm
That suggests there's not a risk to growth
There is positive momentum for productivity growth
A lot of work being done that we might see more productivity growth in next 1-3 years
It's too early to say when AI productivity impact will arrive
Stable labor market, positive growth, productivity growth, and high inflation
We have to focus on bringing inflation down
Just because we have to fight inflation problem now doesn't mean we should ignore potential that productivity growth could be disinflationary
Inflation shocks can compound, we can't be complacent
Bias is that further tightening will be needed
Inflation is bleeding into services, and once services inflation rises it's sticky
I'm comfortable with September hike, further tightening needed
Inflation pressure is up, not down
I increasingly hear firms say they're going to pass on higher costs
But markets don't do the work of the Fed, and keeping prices stable is the job of the Fed
Financial markets are in alignment with where Fed needs to be
Tighter financial conditions give us more time to make decisions
Exactly how much Fed tightening and when is a decision we don't need to make now
We have many, many quarters to make policy decisions US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.33% 0.33% -0.05% 0.04% 0.64% 0.33% 0.32% EUR -0.33% 0.00% -0.37% -0.29% 0.32% -0.00% -0.02% GBP -0.33% -0.01% -0.36% -0.28% 0.32% -0.00% -0.02% JPY 0.05% 0.37% 0.36% 0.08% 0.68% 0.36% 0.36% CAD -0.04% 0.29% 0.28% -0.08% 0.60% 0.29% 0.28% AUD -0.64% -0.32% -0.32% -0.68% -0.60% -0.30% -0.32% NZD -0.33% 0.00% 0.00% -0.36% -0.29% 0.30% 0.00% CHF -0.32% 0.02% 0.02% -0.36% -0.28% 0.32% -0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
19:47 Forex Today: US inflation is back
The US Dollar (USD) maintained its bullish momentum well in place for yet another day, this time revisiting levels last seen in April 2025 amid steady speculation of further tightening by the Federal Reserve, with investors even mulling the idea of a half-point interest rate raise.
The US Dollar (USD) maintained its bullish momentum well in place for yet another day, this time revisiting levels last seen in April 2025 amid steady speculation of further tightening by the Federal Reserve, with investors even mulling the idea of a half-point interest rate raise.The US Dollar Index (DXY) has advanced past the 103.00 hurdle to hit new 18-month highs, helped by the generalised bearish tone in the risk complex and rising bets for another fed rate hike at the December gathering. The Producer Prices data will close the calendar along with speeches by the Fed’s Williams, Bowman, and Daly.EUR/USD has further extended its downtrend, reaching new troughs around 1.1050 on the back of the persistent move higher in the US Dollar. The EMU’s Balance of Trade results are due, seconded by the advanced Q3 Employment Change and the second estimate of the Q3 GDP Growth Rate in the bloc. In addition, the ECB’s Elderson and Schnabel are due to speak.GBP/USD has dropped to multi-week lows, navigating the area close to the 1.3200 contention zone. Next on tap across the Channel is the key labour market report, due for release on November 17.USD/JPY has traded just pips away from the critical 160.00 barrier, underpinned by the solid momentum around the US Dollar. The next release of note in Japan will be the preliminary Q3 GDP Growth Rate, due on November 16, along with final Industrial Production figures and Capacity Utilisation readings. AUD/USD has briefly pierced the 0.6800 support level for the first time since January, down for the third straight day amid extra upside traction in the Greenback. The RBA will publish its Minutes on November 17.Front-month WTI futures (December contract) have traded in an inconclusive fashion between the $85.00 and $87.00 marks per barrel, always closely following developments (or the lack of them) from the Middle East conflict.Gold has sold off to the vicinity of the $3,850 mark per troy ounce on Thursday, coming under continuous downside pressure following extra upside momentum in the US Dollar, and rising US Treasury yields, particularly in the short end and the belly of the curve.
19:11 Silver tumbles over 3% as Fed rate hike bets fuel US Dollar rally
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its decline on Thursday, losing 3.04% on the day to trade around $50.15 at the time of writing.
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The white metal faces strong selling pressure as the strengthening US Dollar (USD) and growing expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) reduce the appeal of precious metals.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's performance against six major currencies, trades near 103.10, after hitting its highest level since April 2025. A stronger US Dollar makes Silver more expensive for foreign investors, while higher interest rates reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets.The latest US inflation figures reinforce expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% MoM in October, exceeding forecasts of 0.2%, while headline inflation increased 0.4%, above the expected 0.3%.Markets now fully price in a Fed rate hike in December, and put the chance of another interest rate rise in January at nearly 65%, supported by increasingly hawkish comments from policymakers. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday that monetary policy needs to become restrictive, warning that rising energy costs are feeding through to other prices. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller previously raised the possibility of a 50-basis-point (bps) hike in December if core inflation reached 0.3% or higher, a threshold confirmed by the latest data.Meanwhile, declining US equity markets may add selling pressure on Silver as investors liquidate positions to cover losses elsewhere. Traders now await Friday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) release and further Fed comments for additional clues on the interest rate outlook. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
18:47 Fed’s Goolsbee warns hot inflation is no fluke as economy overheats
Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee commented in an interview with Yahoo! Finance that inflation has been “well above target,” and that Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) "wasn’t a one-off.”
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Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee commented in an interview with Yahoo! Finance that inflation has been “well above target,” and that Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) "wasn’t a one-off.”Goolsbee added that, regarding inflation, the Fed is in a “tough spot” and should be “mindful” of signs of economic overheating.Key takeaways:Inflation has been well above target
Worth being 'sober-minded' about inflation data and Fed response
Hot inflation report wasn't a one-off
AI investment looks like a form of stimulus.
We're inching our way into a historically tough spot for Fed
Fed should be mindful of signs that the overall economy is overheating
Plenty of room for the Fed to discuss policy options
Do not want to prejudge what happens with monetary policy
Fed is failing on the inflation side of the mandate US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.26% 0.30% 0.08% 0.05% 0.59% 0.32% 0.18% EUR -0.26% 0.04% -0.16% -0.22% 0.33% 0.05% -0.08% GBP -0.30% -0.04% -0.21% -0.26% 0.30% 0.02% -0.12% JPY -0.08% 0.16% 0.21% -0.03% 0.52% 0.23% 0.11% CAD -0.05% 0.22% 0.26% 0.03% 0.55% 0.26% 0.13% AUD -0.59% -0.33% -0.30% -0.52% -0.55% -0.27% -0.42% NZD -0.32% -0.05% -0.02% -0.23% -0.26% 0.27% -0.11% CHF -0.18% 0.08% 0.12% -0.11% -0.13% 0.42% 0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Worth being 'sober-minded' about inflation data and Fed response
Hot inflation report wasn't a one-off
AI investment looks like a form of stimulus.
We're inching our way into a historically tough spot for Fed
Fed should be mindful of signs that the overall economy is overheating
Plenty of room for the Fed to discuss policy options
Do not want to prejudge what happens with monetary policy
Fed is failing on the inflation side of the mandate US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.26% 0.30% 0.08% 0.05% 0.59% 0.32% 0.18% EUR -0.26% 0.04% -0.16% -0.22% 0.33% 0.05% -0.08% GBP -0.30% -0.04% -0.21% -0.26% 0.30% 0.02% -0.12% JPY -0.08% 0.16% 0.21% -0.03% 0.52% 0.23% 0.11% CAD -0.05% 0.22% 0.26% 0.03% 0.55% 0.26% 0.13% AUD -0.59% -0.33% -0.30% -0.52% -0.55% -0.27% -0.42% NZD -0.32% -0.05% -0.02% -0.23% -0.26% 0.27% -0.11% CHF -0.18% 0.08% 0.12% -0.11% -0.13% 0.42% 0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
18:37 British Pound falls towards 1.32 as Fed hawks outshine solid UK growth
The Pound Sterling prolongs its agony versus the US Dollar, diving for the third straight day and approaching the 1.3200 level, even as US jobless claims came in above forecasts, while UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data show the economy is growing steadily.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/USD falls 0.38% to 1.3224, extending losses for three days.UK Q3 GDP grows 0.7%, but Sterling fails to recover.Fed's Hammack warns inflation is worsening ahead of Friday's US PPI.The Pound Sterling prolongs its agony versus the US Dollar, diving for the third straight day and approaching the 1.3200 level, even as US jobless claims came in above forecasts, while UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data show the economy is growing steadily. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3224, down 0.38%.GBP/USD extends its losing streak despite solid UK GDP as Fed hawkish rhetoric weighsData in the US revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 200K, above forecasts of 195K and the previous reading of 191K. Despite the rise, Continuing Jobless Claims dipped weekly from 1.717 million to 1.697 million, indicating a solid labour market.Other data showed that Existing Home Sales dipped -5.5% from 3.97 million to 3.75 million, compared with September’s print.The data was mostly ignored by investors, who digested comments from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who said the inflation outlook is worsening while supporting a gradual approach to monetary policy.Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee commented in an interview with Yahoo! Finance that inflation has been “well above target,” and that “hot inflation report wasn’t a one-off.”In the UK, GDP grew 0.7% in Q3, in line with estimates, yet GBP/USD failed to gain traction after last Tuesday’s hawkish remarks by Fed Governor Waller. The data comes after the Bank of England (BoE) rate hike on November 5, and investors began to price in an additional increase towards the year's end, with odds standing at 75%.Regarding geopolitics, US President Donald Trump said that the US doesn’t need a deal with Iran. At the same time, he instructed Vice President Vance to focus on domestic issues, rather than trying to seal a peace deal with Tehran.Ahead, the US economic docket will feature comments by Chicago Fed Goolsbee, NY Fed John Williams and other officials. On Friday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be released. A higher-than-foreseen reading could open the door for further tightening.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookGBP/USD daily chartIn the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3234, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as spot remains capped beneath the cluster of the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) grouped around 1.3346. The pair is holding just above the prior downtrend resistance break near 1.3221, which now acts as immediate support, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 40.5 stays below the midline, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a fully oversold condition.On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Triple SMA zone around 1.3346, followed by the descending trend-line barrier tied to the 1.3653 peak, which breaks near 1.3372; a sustained move above these levels would be needed to ease the current bearish bias. On the downside, the first line of support sits at the nearby trend-line break around 1.3221, with the current 1.3234 area acting as a pivotal zone; a daily close below this floor would expose the pair to further weakness while broader resistance levels at 1.3708 and 1.3874 stay well overhead.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.27% 0.29% 0.08% 0.05% 0.60% 0.33% 0.18% EUR -0.27% 0.02% -0.18% -0.23% 0.33% 0.05% -0.09% GBP -0.29% -0.02% -0.19% -0.23% 0.31% 0.04% -0.11% JPY -0.08% 0.18% 0.19% -0.04% 0.52% 0.23% 0.10% CAD -0.05% 0.23% 0.23% 0.04% 0.55% 0.27% 0.14% AUD -0.60% -0.33% -0.31% -0.52% -0.55% -0.27% -0.42% NZD -0.33% -0.05% -0.04% -0.23% -0.27% 0.27% -0.11% CHF -0.18% 0.09% 0.11% -0.10% -0.14% 0.42% 0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
18:02 Australian Dollar slides to 10-month low as Fed tightening bets gather pace
AUD/USD extends losses on Thursday, slipping to its lowest level since January as investors turn to the US Dollar (USD) for safety. Hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations lend further support to the Greenback. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.6808, down 0.60% on the day.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Australian Dollar falls to its lowest level since January as risk aversion and a stronger US Dollar weigh on the pair.Hawkish Fed remarks and stronger US inflation reinforce expectations of further interest rate hikes.The RBA signals a potential pause in tightening after raising interest rates to 4.85% last week.AUD/USD extends losses on Thursday, slipping to its lowest level since January as investors turn to the US Dollar (USD) for safety. Hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations lend further support to the Greenback. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.6808, down 0.60% on the day.US technology shares came under pressure after reports that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had resigned, helping the US Dollar recover from a modest intraday dip. Investors also grew more cautious after US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that the US does not need a deal with Iran.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, climbs to a fresh year-to-date high of 103.19.On the monetary policy front, traders fully price in a December Fed hike, with a 25-basis-point (bps) move favoured and a small chance of a larger 50 bps increase. Markets also expect further tightening into 2027 as more Fed officials call for higher rates to bring inflation under control.Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday that policy needs to become restrictive to lower inflation. She favours smaller moves but said a larger hike could be needed if the Fed falls behind. Earlier this week, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson also backed further tightening.Before Tuesday’s US inflation report, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a monthly core inflation reading around 0.3% could put a half-point December hike on the table. Core inflation came in at 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast.In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signalled it may pause after raising its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% last week, its fifth hike this year. The RBA dropped its explicit reference to further hikes, and Governor Michele Bullock said it was time to assess how the economy was responding to higher borrowing costs.Australia’s consumer inflation expectations held steady at 5.3% in November, well above the RBA's 2%-3% inflation target range. The Melbourne Institute survey measures how much households expect prices to rise over the next 12 months. Traders now turn to Friday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) for the next read on inflation. Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.21% 0.29% 0.02% 0.07% 0.57% 0.26% 0.20% EUR -0.21% 0.09% -0.19% -0.15% 0.36% 0.03% -0.02% GBP -0.29% -0.09% -0.23% -0.22% 0.28% -0.04% -0.10% JPY -0.02% 0.19% 0.23% 0.04% 0.54% 0.21% 0.16% CAD -0.07% 0.15% 0.22% -0.04% 0.50% 0.18% 0.12% AUD -0.57% -0.36% -0.28% -0.54% -0.50% -0.31% -0.35% NZD -0.26% -0.03% 0.04% -0.21% -0.18% 0.31% -0.03% CHF -0.20% 0.02% 0.10% -0.16% -0.12% 0.35% 0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
16:39 Euro struggles near May 2025 lows as Fed hawks keep Dollar supported
EUR/USD trades flat during Thursday’s American trading hours as the US Dollar (USD) gives back some ground after hitting a fresh year-to-date high. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1087, up from an intraday low of 1.1066, its weakest level since May 2025.
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At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1087, up from an intraday low of 1.1066, its weakest level since May 2025.The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 102.95 after reaching 103.08 earlier in the day. The Greenback lost some momentum after US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 200Kfrom 191K the previous week, above the 195K forecast. The four-week average held steady at 195.25K.The Greenback remains supported by growing calls from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials for further rate hikes to bring inflation under control. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday that policy needs to become restrictive and that she is seeing higher energy costs feed through to other prices. She said smaller moves are less disruptive to the economy, though a larger hike could be needed if the Fed falls behind.Earlier this week, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson also backed further tightening. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said before Tuesday’s inflation report that a monthly core inflation reading around 0.3% could put a half-point December hike on the table. Core inflation came in at 0.3% and traders now fully price in a December hike. A 25-basis-point (bps) move remains the favourite, with a small chance of a larger 50 bps increase. Markets also expect the Fed to keep raising rates into 2027.Energy-driven inflation risks remain in focus after US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that the US does not need a deal with Iran. Traders now turn to Friday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) for the next read on inflation.Euro outlook softens as ECB caution contrasts with Fed tighteningA Reuters poll published on Thursday showed all 71 economists surveyed expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.75% in December. Of those, 46 see December as the final hike of the cycle, while 25 expect another increase, most likely in the first quarter of 2027.Strategists at Rabobank note that “the Fed is not the only G10 central bank widely expected to hike rates in December,” with the ECB “among those banks also likely to tighten policy.” However, they caution that “the ECB, however, could prove to be reluctant to hike rates beyond December,” pointing to signals from “the last ECB press conference” which “suggested that the GC were becoming increasingly concerned about the growth outlook.” In Rabobank’s house view, “market pricing for 2027 ECB rate rises remains too aggressive,” and they add that “another factor that could weigh on the EUR in the coming months are uncertainties about what a far-right president in France could mean for EU cooperation going forward.” Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
16:36 Fed’s Hammack says inflation is worsening, favors gradual hikes
Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack recognized on Thursday that the Fed is doing good work on the “job side of the mandate,” but it “has been missing on the inflation mandate for years.”
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Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack recognized on Thursday that the Fed is doing good work on the “job side of the mandate,” but it “has been missing on the inflation mandate for years.”Hammack added that recent data shows inflation moving in the wrong direction. Despite this, she preferred a gradual approach to adjust interest rates and acknowledged that the Fed “needs to move rates higher to get to restrictive rate policy.”Key takeaways:Fed is doing very well on job side of mandate
Fed has been missing on inflation mandate for years
Most recent inflation data show its moving in wrong direction
There are real demand pressures contributing to high inflation
We need to move to restrictve monetary policy to lower inflation
Worries economy could form inflationary mindset
Goes into all FOMC meetings with an open mind
Prefers to see smaller, steadier Fed rate moves
Fed needs to move rates higher to get to restrictive rate policy
Doesn’t believe Fed is behind curve, if that happens would consider more aggressive action
Smaller, steadier rate increases give economy time to adjust
Recent inflation data has shown broadening price pressures
Job market static, would not describe it has healthy due to lack of dynamism Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Fed has been missing on inflation mandate for years
Most recent inflation data show its moving in wrong direction
There are real demand pressures contributing to high inflation
We need to move to restrictve monetary policy to lower inflation
Worries economy could form inflationary mindset
Goes into all FOMC meetings with an open mind
Prefers to see smaller, steadier Fed rate moves
Fed needs to move rates higher to get to restrictive rate policy
Doesn’t believe Fed is behind curve, if that happens would consider more aggressive action
Smaller, steadier rate increases give economy time to adjust
Recent inflation data has shown broadening price pressures
Job market static, would not describe it has healthy due to lack of dynamism Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
15:43 US President Donald Trump: “We don’t need a deal with Iran” – Truth Social
US President Donald Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran in one of several Truth Social posts on Thursday. In the same post, Trump said he had asked Vice President JD Vance to focus on what he described as widespread crime and corruption in Democratic-led cities and states.
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US President Donald Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran in one of several Truth Social posts on Thursday. In the same post, Trump said he had asked Vice President JD Vance to focus on what he described as widespread crime and corruption in Democratic-led cities and states.The remarks came after The Wall Street Journal reported that Vance was weighing face-to-face talks with senior Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei in an effort to end the war. The discussions were preliminary, and no date had been set. Trump’s Truth Social postI have asked Vice President Vance to focus his complete and total attention on the Massive Corruption and Crime taking place in Democrat run Cities and States throughout the U.S. The Blue States, such as Minnesota, California, Illinois, and many more, are all poorly run, corrupt disasters. Billions of Dollars is being stolen each and every month. Our Budget could be quickly BALANCED with the correction of this large scale criminal activity. CORRUPTION is in the Democrat Leadership’s blood! We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed. We’ve got their money, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and we’ve got their Strait! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJTWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) reversed earlier losses after Trump’s remarks, rising more than 1% on the day to around $86.40 a barrel. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
15:37 US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 200K last week
According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 200K for the week ending November 7.
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15:36 USD/JPY: Intervention risk caps upside – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad highlights that USD/JPY has tested the 160.00 resistance area, reviving intervention concerns after Japan’s large summer FX operations. Officials warn recent currency moves have been too fast.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad highlights that USD/JPY has tested the 160.00 resistance area, reviving intervention concerns after Japan’s large summer FX operations. Officials warn recent currency moves have been too fast. While ongoing Dollar strength keeps upside pressure on USD/JPY, the threat of renewed action is seen limiting sustained breaks above 160.00 and skewing risk against further JPY selling.Key 160.00 level draws official focus"USD/JPY tested key resistance at 160.00, putting intervention risks back in the spotlight. Indeed, Japan’s top currency official, Atsushi Mimura, warned “the currency moves over the past few days have been too fast…It’s too early to forget what happened this summer.”""As a background, Japan spent a record ¥15.4 trillion ($97bn, or roughly 10% of its FX reserves) to prop up JPY on July 30-31 and August 3. The US also stepped in, with intervention estimated at $1bn. The FX reaction was swift.""USD/JPY plunged from an intra-day high of 163.74 on July 30 to a low of 155.23 on August 3 and has largely failed to sustain a break above 160.00 since.""Bottom line: USD strength keeps USD/JPY under upward pressure, but the threat of intervention tilts the risk-return against further JPY selling and should limit overshoots above 160.00."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
14:56 USD/CAD Price Forecast: RSI near 66 signals strong buying interest
USD/CAD is little changed on Thursday, holding near a one-month high. A broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) and diverging interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) keep the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on the back foot.
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A broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) and diverging interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) keep the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on the back foot. At the time of writing, USD/CAD trades around 1.4245, down 0.04% on the day.USD strength seen pressuring Canadian Dollar as BoC hike odds fadeAccording to TD Securities, the US Dollar still has scope to advance against selected majors, with analysts noting that “across global major currencies, we see room for the USD to rally selectively against CAD and KRW in the near-term.” They argue that “diverging employment data releases will likely keep USDCAD supported above 1.40,” as Canada’s labour market softens relative to the US. In particular, TD highlights that a “rising unemployment rate amid falling wage growth rate in Canada also reduces the market pricing of a December BoC rate hike relative to the Fed,” reinforcing their view that the Canadian Dollar will remain under pressure against the Dollar in the near term.Technical AnalysisUSD/CAD bulls have the upper hand. The pair has erased all of its October losses and climbed above the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), with the 200-day SMA well below the current price. Momentum conditions back the topside tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 66, edging toward overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive and above its recent lows, hinting at sustained buying interest.On the downside, initial support sits near 1.4200, followed by former resistance at 1.4120, which now acts as support. Below these, the cluster of trend-supporting averages between the 50-day SMA at 1.4074 and the 100-day SMA at 1.4044 should act as a deeper cushion ahead of the longer-term 200-day SMA at 1.3909. On the upside, the October peak near 1.4300 offers immediate resistance. A break above it could open the door to further gains toward the 1.4400 psychological level.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
14:52 103.08: US Dollar Index hits a fresh year-to-date high as Fed hike bets build
The US Dollar (USD) has extended its upward trajectory across global foreign exchange markets, propelling the US Dollar Index (DXY) to a fresh year-to-date high of 103.08 and returning the currency to its April 2025 levels.
The US Dollar (USD) has extended its upward trajectory across global foreign exchange markets, propelling the US Dollar Index (DXY) to a fresh year-to-date high of 103.08 and returning the currency to its April 2025 levels. This renewed rally is firmly anchored in real front-end rate differentials following stronger-than-expected US inflation data and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) rhetoric, which has prompted traders to price in a faster pace of monetary tightening. Alongside rate-driven momentum, reduced concerns over political interference at the Fed and resilient safe-haven inflows are reinforcing the Greenback’s valuation. Institutional strategists at MUFG, ING, and Rabobank assess that while near-term inflation prints and Fed communications point toward further upside, medium-term US fiscal deficit pressures remain a key variable for the US Dollar's broader outlook.US Dollar Index DXY daily chartMUFG sees back-to-back December and January Fed hikes lifting the US Dollar Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that expectations for an accelerated Federal Reserve tightening cycle — spurred by recent strong US inflation readings — have driven the US Dollar Index DXY to a fresh year-to-date peak of 103.08. While Hardman does not anticipate a 50 bps hike in December, futures pricing points toward back-to-back 25 bps increases in December and January, making upcoming commentary from New York Fed President John Williams pivotal for confirming the rate path."The US dollar has continued to strengthen overnight resulting in the dollar index hitting a fresh year-to-date high of 103.08. The US dollar’s renewed upward momentum has been encouraged by expectations that the Fed is likely to speed up the pace of rate hikes in response to the recent run of stronger US inflation data... There are currently around 28bps of hikes priced by December, and 43bps of hikes priced by the following meeting in January indicating that even if the Fed hikes by 25bps in December it is now expected to quickly follow up with another 25bps hike at the start of next year... While we don’t expect a larger 50bps hike to be delivered in December, it is more likely now that the Fed could hike rates back-to-back in December and January."ING expects front-end rate differentials and PPI data to fuel another US Dollar leg higherFrancesco Pesole and the FX strategy team at ING emphasize that the US Dollar's return to April 2025 levels is a fundamentally sound, rates-driven advance supported by real front-end yield differentials rather than excessive speculative stretching. With Fed Governor Chris Waller placing a 50 bps December rate hike on the table and market pricing still sitting at 28 bps, ING sees clear scope for hawkish repricing, identifying upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) figures as a potential trigger for further USD gains."The combination of hawkish Fedspeak and a US CPI beat earlier this week continues to pay dividends for the dollar. DXY is now back at Liberation Day (April 2025) levels, with real front-end rate differentials continuing to fuel strong dollar momentum. Importantly, this remains a rates-driven move, with contained excessive USD strength relative to short-term fair value currently built in... We continue to see upside risks for the dollar in the coming days. The Fed's Chris Waller has put a 50bp December move on the radar, and that should keep markets biased towards hawkish interpretations of incoming data. December pricing remains at 28bp, leaving scope for further adjustment... Today’s home sales data are unlikely to matter, but tomorrow’s PPI will. That may be the catalyst for another USD leg higher."Rabobank argues Fed credibility and safe-haven flows refute US Dollar debasement fearsThe FX Strategy team at Rabobank contends that easing concerns over political interference at the Federal Reserve and resilient safe-haven inflows have restored Greenback credibility, allowing the currency to capitalize on robust US economic growth and upcoming Eurozone pressures. Although Rabobank warns that a US budget deficit above 6% of GDP and signs of slipping "exorbitant privilege" in the Treasury market could weigh on the USD over the medium term, the team concludes that previous US Dollar debasement fears were overstated."Diminished fears about political interference on the Fed is a supportive factor for the USD. In addition, at the start of the Gulf war, strong demand for the USD undermined last year’s claims that the USD’s had lost at least part of its safe haven value. In our view the USD’s safe haven appeal is linked to its embedded position in global payments systems, which could take decades to shake... Reduced concerns over the credibility of the greenback should allow it more opportunity to benefit from the US’s robust economic growth performance... There is still a risk that concerns related to the US’s unwieldly budget deficit could weigh on the USD over the medium-term. The US budget deficit at over 6% of GDP is wider than that of France... Either way, last year’s dollar debasement fears appear exaggerated."Key TakeawayThe US Dollar's climb to a fresh year-to-date high of 103.08 reflects a powerful alignment of front-end interest rate repricing, institutional credibility, and structural safe-haven demand. While MUFG and ING highlight that sticky inflation and hawkish Fed commentary — including 28 bps to 43 bps of tightening priced across December and January alongside talk of a potential 50 bp move — leave near-term risks skewed toward further US Dollar gains on upcoming PPI data, Rabobank underscores that even with medium-term fiscal deficit risks above 6% of GDP, the Greenback's entrenched role in global financial markets keeps it firmly positioned to outperform major peers.
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
14:40 New Zealand Dollar steadies around 0.5550 as US Dollar bulls take a break
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is trading practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, holding losses after the last two days’ reversal.
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The NZD/USD pair is looking for direction at the lower range of the last four weeks’ trading band, with the year-to-date low of 0.5527at a short distance, after another rejection at the 0.5650 area.The Greenback has outperformed its peers this week, boosted by hot US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Tuesday, which heightened hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates at least by a quarter point at its December meeting. Fed officials have endorsed that view and are likely to reiterate the hawkish stance later on Thursday. A string of policymakers from the US central bank are expected to speak in public later in the day, some of whom have already expressed concern about the elevated price pressures and their support for further monetary tightening in December.BBH: "The USD might have run too far, too fast"Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad, however, cautions that “the USD rally may have run too far, too fast.” He notes that “USD has overshot the level implied by rate differentials, limiting the scope for further gains in the near-term.” Haddad also points out that market expectations for a “jumbo 50bps fed funds rate hike in December” are likely to be tempered, as they “will likely be constrained by stagnant US real wages and the resulting headwind to consumption spending,” suggesting the possibility of some USD repositioning in the coming days.The New Zealand Dollar received some boost at the week's opening after last weekend's election provided a narrow victory to the centre-right ruling coalition, easing concerns about a period of political uncertainty. This, however, failed to alter the negative trend triggered by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to keep interest rates on hold against expectations in late October.In that sense, lower Oil prices provide some relief for New Zealand's economy, as the country is a net Crude importer, although they also give reasons for RBNZ's doves to stand pat on rates and increase the monetary policy divergence with the Fed. RBNZ FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment. How does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy influence the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. Why does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand care about employment? Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says. What is Quantitative Easing (QE)? In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.
14:19 US Dollar: Rally cools as Fed talk eyed – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the Dollar Index has retreated from its post-October CPI highs, with the USD rally seen as stretched versus rate differentials. He highlights that stagnant US real wages may cap expectations for a 50bps Fed hike in December.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the Dollar Index has retreated from its post-October CPI highs, with the USD rally seen as stretched versus rate differentials. He highlights that stagnant US real wages may cap expectations for a 50bps Fed hike in December. USD rally seen stretched near term"The dollar index (DXY) has pulled back from its highest level since early April 2025, when President Donald Trump unveiled his Liberation Day tariffs. The USD rally was fueled by a sharp repricing in fed funds rate expectations following the hot US October CPI print and amplified by hawkish Fed rhetoric.""Nevertheless, the USD rally may have run too far, too fast. USD has overshot the level implied by rate differentials, limiting the scope for further gains in the near-term. Moreover, pricing of a jumbo 50bps fed funds rate hike in December will likely be constrained by stagnant US real wages and the resulting headwind to consumption spending.""Today’s second-tier US data (weekly jobless claims and October existing home sales) are unlikely to move the needle, leaving Fed speakers in focus."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
14:02 Economists agree: ECB will hike rates to 2.75% in December, Reuters poll shows
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in December, according to a Reuters poll published on Thursday. All 71 economists surveyed expect a hike next month.
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The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in December, according to a Reuters poll published on Thursday. All 71 economists surveyed expect a hike next month. Of those, 46 expect the deposit rate to peak at 2.75%, while 25 see another hike, most likely in the first quarter of 2027.Economists raised their inflation forecasts from a month ago and now expect Eurozone inflation to remain around twice the ECB’s 2% target through at least the second quarter of 2027. They see inflation averaging 3.1% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, up from 3.0% and 2.6% in the October poll. Core inflation is also expected to pick up, averaging 2.6% this quarter and 2.8% in the first quarter of 2027.The growth outlook also improved. Economists now expect the Eurozone economy to expand by 1.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, up from 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively, in the October poll. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
13:58 British Pound: Resilient data backs BoE hikes – BBH
Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) reports that the Pound (GBP) showed limited reaction to solid UK Q3 GDP, with 0.7% q/q growth driven by consumption and investment.
Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) reports that the Pound (GBP) showed limited reaction to solid UK Q3 GDP, with 0.7% q/q growth driven by consumption and investment. Swaps still price a high probability of back-to-back Bank of England (BOE) hikes, pushing rates above neutral and raising future growth risks. For now, resilient UK activity is seen as supportive for GBP, particularly versus EUR.Strong UK growth supports Pound"GBP largely ignored the UK’s good Q3 GDP print. Real GDP increased 0.7% q/q vs. 0.5% in Q2, matching consensus and the BOE’s forecast. Household consumption and fixed investment were the main growth drivers.""September real GDP also surprised to the upside, rising 0.2% m/m (consensus: 0%) after stagnating in August, underpinned by gains in services, production and construction.""The swaps curve still implies about 70% odds of a back-to-back 25bps hike to 4.25% on December 17, and a total of 85bps of tightening over the next twelve months. That would push the policy rate well above the BOE’s estimated 2-4% neutral range, raising the risk of a sharper growth slowdown ahead. For now, resilient UK economic activity reinforces the case for additional BOE hikes which is GBP positive, especially against EUR."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
13:55 Japanese Yen finds relief as officials warn against rapid currency moves
USD/JPY trades slightly lower on Thursday after climbing to 159.94, its highest level in more than two months.
Japanese Yen firms as intervention warnings weigh on USD/JPY near the 160.00 mark.A modest US Dollar pullback offers some relief, though hawkish Fed expectations limit the Yen's recovery.Cautious remarks from BoJ policymaker Toichiro Asada cast doubt on the pace of further rate hikes.USD/JPY trades slightly lower on Thursday after climbing to 159.94, its highest level in more than two months. Bets on more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes strengthened the US Dollar (USD), bringing the pair within touching distance of 160.00, putting the risk of Japanese intervention back in focus. At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades around 159.70, down 0.10% on the day.Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said on Thursday that recent currency moves had been too fast, adding that “it’s still too early to forget what happened this summer.” Japan spent a record ¥15.4 trillion buying Yen over three days between July 30 and August 3 after the currency weakened to nearly 164 per US Dollar, its lowest level in about 40 years.Japan signals readiness to defend Yen as USD strength complicates interventionAnalysts at MUFG/BTMU argue that recent official rhetoric “sends a strong signal that Japan is prepared to intervene again to support the Yen,” a stance they believe “should help to limit further upside for USD/JPY beyond 160.00.” However, they caution that “it will be even more difficult to reverse the upward trend for USD/JPY right now with the USD strengthening broadly on the back of expectations for faster Fed rate hikes.” In their view, “if the rising risk of further intervention helps to stabilize USD/JPY while the US Dollar continues to strengthen more broadly, it could see non-USD Yen crosses moving lower.”However, a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday takes some pressure off the Japanese Yen (JPY). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, trades near 102.88 after reaching 103.08, its highest level since April 2025.Traders now fully price in a December Fed rate hike, with a 25-basis-point (bps) move the most likely outcome and a small chance of a larger 50 bps increase. Those bets firmed after hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation data earlier this week and calls from Fed officials for further hikes to bring inflation back to the 2% target.Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Toichiro Asada warned that “rate hikes may harm the economy, reduce core inflation.” He said that with the policy rate in the neutral range, a “further hike could have greater effect on the economy” and that the BoJ “must be cautious about the pace of increases.” Asada also said current price increases “aren’t necessarily fueled by demand” given weak growth and consumption.Traders now turn to weekly US jobless claims later on Thursday and Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for fresh clues on the Fed’s December decision.
13:50 EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Consolidating above 0.8350 after rejection at 0.8370
The Euro (EUR) is consolidating at a slightly higher range against the British Pound (GBP) this week, mainly favoured by the lower Oil prices, although the broader trend is still showing a capped tone.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/GBP holds at higher levels, with upside attempts capped below 0.8370.The Euro has drawn some support from a 20% decline in Oil prices.In the UK, the upbeat GDP and Industrial Production data have failed to support the Pound.The Euro (EUR) is consolidating at a slightly higher range against the British Pound (GBP) this week, mainly favoured by the lower Oil prices, although the broader trend is still showing a capped tone. The EUR/GBP has found support above 0.8350, after bouncing from lows at 0.8320 last week, yet with upside attempts limited below 0.8370 so far. The common currency has drawn some support from the decline in Oil prices, which provides some relief to the Eurozone economies. Brent Oil has dropped about 20% from last week's highs and has been hovering just above the $90 level over the last few days, its lowest prices since early September.On the macroeconomic front, UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) met expectations with a 0.7% growth in the third quarter and a 1.9% yearly advance, with Industrial Production and services’ output growing beyond expectations. The impact on the Pound, however, has been muted.In the Euro Area, the calendar is thin on Thursday, and the highlight will be European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s comments at an economic event in Paris during the late US session. Lagarde, however, is unlikely to change market expectations that the bank will hike interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting on December 17.Technical Analysis: Euro corrects higher within a broader bearish trendEUR/GBP trades at 0.8358, holding a broadly neutral immediate tone, with the broader bearish trend intact after plunging more than 3% in October. Momentum indicators on 4-hour charts are mixed, as the Relative Strength Index (14) holds above the 50 midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally into negative territory, altogether highlighting a lack of a clear bias.Bulls would need to break Wednesday's high at 0.8370 and the October 28 high around 0.8380 to expose the October 26 high in the 0.8400 area. To the downside, a bearish reaction below Wednesday's low at 0.8350 brings the November 6 and 9 lows, near 0.8335, back into focus.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.00% 0.07% -0.08% -0.02% 0.32% 0.02% -0.12% EUR -0.01% 0.06% -0.11% -0.04% 0.32% -0.00% -0.13% GBP -0.07% -0.06% -0.15% -0.10% 0.26% -0.05% -0.20% JPY 0.08% 0.11% 0.15% 0.05% 0.40% 0.08% -0.05% CAD 0.02% 0.04% 0.10% -0.05% 0.35% 0.03% -0.10% AUD -0.32% -0.32% -0.26% -0.40% -0.35% -0.30% -0.45% NZD -0.02% 0.00% 0.05% -0.08% -0.03% 0.30% -0.11% CHF 0.12% 0.13% 0.20% 0.05% 0.10% 0.45% 0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
13:22 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Breakdown of H&S pattern keeps the pair under pressure
The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms its currency peers on Thursday, trading 0.15% down at around 0.6833 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trade.
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.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD declines to near 0.6833 as the Australian Dollar underperforms.The Fed is certain to hike interest rates in the December meeting.Investors keenly await RBA's monetary policy minutes and Governor Michele Bullock's speech.The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms its currency peers on Thursday, trading 0.15% down at around 0.6833 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trade. The Australian currency is under pressure as market experts doubt the continuation of Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary tightening cycle. Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.02% 0.03% -0.13% -0.03% 0.30% 0.00% -0.17% EUR 0.02% 0.06% -0.11% -0.01% 0.33% 0.03% -0.14% GBP -0.03% -0.06% -0.15% -0.08% 0.28% -0.03% -0.20% JPY 0.13% 0.11% 0.15% 0.09% 0.43% 0.12% -0.04% CAD 0.03% 0.01% 0.08% -0.09% 0.33% 0.04% -0.13% AUD -0.30% -0.33% -0.28% -0.43% -0.33% -0.29% -0.46% NZD -0.01% -0.03% 0.03% -0.12% -0.04% 0.29% -0.14% CHF 0.17% 0.14% 0.20% 0.04% 0.13% 0.46% 0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Analysts at OCBC Group Research highlighted the mixed signals in the last RBA’s decision, noting that while the statement cited that “inflation remains elevated and recent data indicate that it is broadly based” to justify the hike, it also acknowledged that “the increases in the cash rate target since the beginning of the year have tightened financial conditions. The economy is slowing, housing prices have fallen significantly and the unemployment rate has risen”.OCBC further point out that the RBA has softened its forward guidance, with the statement having removed the phrase “including increasing the cash rate target further if needed”. Against this backdrop, OCBC concludes: “We expect no more hike in this cycle, and the next policy move is likely to be a cut.”For fresh cues regarding RBA’s monetary policy outlook, investors will pay attention to monetary policy meeting minutes of the October policy meeting and Governor Michele Bullock’s speech scheduled on Tuesday.Meanwhile, the broader strength in the US Dollar is also keeping the Aussie pair under pressure. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades flat at around 102.86 after giving back it early gains. During the day, the DXY posted a fresh 18-month high at 103.08.Dollar index hits fresh high as Fed hike expectations firm into year endAnalysts at MUFG note that the US Dollar has “continued to strengthen overnight,” pushing the Dollar Index to “a fresh year-to-date high of 103.08.” They argue that the Dollar’s “renewed upward momentum has been encouraged by expectations that the Fed is likely to speed up the pace of rate hikes in response to the recent run of stronger US inflation data.” In rates, MUFG highlights that “the yield on the 2-year US Treasury has jumped high by around 33bps from the low at the end of last week although still remains below the peak set in September at 4.96%.”On the policy outlook, MUFG points out that “a 25bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in December is now fully priced in, and market participants have moved further to price in small probability of larger 50bps hike.” They add that “there are currently around 28bps of hikes priced by December, and 43bps of hikes priced by the following meeting in January indicating that even if the Fed hikes by 25bps in December it is now expected to quickly follow up with another 25bps hike at the start of next year.”According to MUFG, market expectations for a faster pace of Fed tightening have been “encouraged by hawkish comments this week by Fed officials.” They cite Governor Christopher Waller, who “stated he would consider voting for a larger 50bps hike in December,” and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a current voting member, who said “the FOMC needs to implement at least two more 25bps rate increases” and that “it may be possible to move more rapidly this winter than the FOMC has moved this fall.” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who becomes a voting member next year, also described the October CPI report as “another distressing report, borderline disturbing,” particularly highlighting that services inflation “has remained persistently high.”MUFG stresses that “the updated views of New York Fed President John Williams could carry more weight.” They recall his recent remark that it is an “appropriate time to accumulate more information to help us determine what the appropriate stance of policy is to make sure we achieve a timely return to our 2% target.” While MUFG does not expect “a larger 50bps hike to be delivered in December,” they judge that “it is more likely now that the Fed could hike rates back-to-back in December and January.”In their view, this evolving policy narrative is “a development that will encourage the US dollar to trade at stronger levels heading into year end.” MUFG concludes that “a sharp tightening of US financial conditions and/or ongoing drop in energy prices would likely be required to significantly push back against market expectations for faster Fed hikes at the current juncture.”AUD/USD Technical AnalysisIn the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6835, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds clearly below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6947. The location of price under this key trend reference and the breakdown of the Head and Shoulder (H&S) chart pattern hint that recent rebounds remain capped, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 35 stays in weak territory, suggesting only modest downside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.On the topside, initial resistance is located at the neckline of the H&S pattern, which is at 0.6900, followed by the 20-period EMA at 0.6947, and a decisive recovery above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate selling pressure and open the way for a broader corrective bounce. Looking down, the pair could extend its decline towards 0.6800.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Economic Indicator RBA Governor Bullock speech Michele Bullock is the the ninth Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. She commenced her current position in September 2023, replacing Philip Lowe. Bullock was the Assistant Governor (Financial System) at the Reserve Bank of Australia, a position she held since October 2016. Read more. Next release: Tue Nov 17, 2026 00:00 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: - Previous: - Source:
13:10 Canadian Dollar picks up from four-week lows as the US Dollar loses steam
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) posts marginal gains on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) retreats from recent highs against most peers in a quiet market session.
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Strong US inflation and hawkish Fed comments are likely to keep US Dollar bears subdued.The Canadian Dollar remains on the back foot as soft labour data has dampened hopes of immediate BoC rate hikes.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) posts marginal gains on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) retreats from recent highs against most peers in a quiet market session. The USD/CAD changes hands at 1.4243 at the time of writing, down from a four-week high at 1.4265 hit earlier in the day, although it remains on track for a 0.8% weekly rally.The US Dollar has drawn support from the strong US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures seen earlier this week, which boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates further in December.Fed officials have backed those views and are likely to point in that direction again on Thursday. A string of policymakers are expected to speak later in the day, some of whom have already shown their support for tightening monetary policy in the next meeting.Soft Canadian labour data dampened hopes of immediate BoC hikesThe Canadian Dollar, on the contrary, is still paying a toll from the disappointing Canadian labour market report released last Friday. The country's economy lost 4.7K jobs in October, against expectations of a 13.6K increase, following another 68.3K decline in September. Beyond that, the Unemployment Rate rose to 6.7%, its highest level since April.TD Securities analysts observe that “diverging employment data releases will likely keep USDCAD supported above 1.40,” as Canada’s “rising unemployment rate amid falling wage growth rate” undermines the case for tighter policy. In their view, this backdrop “reduces the market pricing of a December BoC rate hike relative to the Fed,” leaving the Canadian Dollar vulnerable to further underperformance against the Dollar. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
12:51 Gold falls below $4,000 as traders weigh a half-point Fed rate hike
Gold (XAU/USD) slips back below $4,000 on Thursday, giving up most of last week’s gains as bets on more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes lift the US Dollar (USD) to a fresh year-to-date high.
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The Greenback has since pulled back, helping Gold recover from its intraday low of $3,924. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $3,952, down 0.82% on the day.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades near 102.88, off its high of 103.08.Fed Governor Christopher Waller put a 50-basis-point (bps) hike in December on traders’ radar before Tuesday’s US inflation report. Waller said a half-point hike could be needed if October core Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in “around 0.3% or higher.” And that’s what happened. Core CPI rose 0.3% on the month, above the 0.2% forecast, while headline CPI rose 0.4%, beating the 0.3% estimate.Dollar momentum builds as markets fully price in December Fed hikeAnalysts at MUFG/BTMU note that "there are currently around 28bps of hikes priced by December, and 43bps of hikes priced by the following meeting in January," which "indicat[es] that even if the Fed hikes by 25bps in December, it is now expected to quickly follow up with another 25bps hike at the start of next year."ING strategists add that "the combination of hawkish Fedspeak and a US CPI beat earlier this week continues to pay dividends for the Dollar," with DXY now "back at Liberation Day (April 2025) levels." They stress that "real front-end rate differentials [are] continuing to fuel strong Dollar momentum" and that "this remains a rates-driven move, with contained excessive USD strength relative to short-term fair value currently built in."The prospect of higher borrowing costs takes some shine off Gold as investors favour assets that pay interest. Traders now turn to upcoming US economic data, including weekly jobless claims later on Thursday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) due on Friday, with several Fed officials also set to speak over the rest of the week.US-Iran developments are also in focus. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that US Vice President JD Vance is weighing face-to-face talks with senior Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei. The discussions are still preliminary, and no date has been set. Signs of progress toward a deal could keep Oil prices under pressure. A sustained drop in Oil prices could ease inflation pressures and prompt traders to dial back bets on more aggressive Fed rate hikes.Technical analysis:On the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps a bearish tone as it sits beneath the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Bollinger Bands at $4,042. Momentum is relatively subdued, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 41, suggesting only modest buying interest despite a mildly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading above zero.On the topside, initial resistance is seen at $4,000, followed by the mid-Bollinger 20-day SMA at $4,042. A sustained break above these levels would open the way toward $4,150 and the Bollinger upper band at roughly $4,199. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the lower Bollinger band near $3,885, with any decisive move below that zone likely to reinforce the prevailing bearish bias and expose deeper retracement levels.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
12:31 US 10-year yield: Up move eyes 5.36% – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s rates team notes a sharp advance in 10‑year US Treasuries after defending key trendline support near 4.81%, with yields now challenging the 50‑day moving average. The bank sees scope for consolidation between 4.81% and 5.05%, but if resistance breaks, a larger move towards the 5.16%–5.18% gap and October’s high around 5.36% is envisaged.
Societe Generale’s rates team notes a sharp advance in 10‑year US Treasuries after defending key trendline support near 4.81%, with yields now challenging the 50‑day moving average. The bank sees scope for consolidation between 4.81% and 5.05%, but if resistance breaks, a larger move towards the 5.16%–5.18% gap and October’s high around 5.36% is envisaged.
Treasury yields extend post‑CPI gains
"10y UST has staged a sharp up move after defending the confluence of a multi-month ascending trend line and the January 2025 peak near 4.81%. It is now challenging the 50-DMA."
"A short-term consolidation cannot be ruled out within the limits of 4.81% and the recent pivot high of 5.05%. If this hurdle is overcome, 10y UST could embark on a larger up move towards the recent down gap at 5.16%/5.18%, followed by the October high near 5.36%."
"US: 10y IRS consolidates post CPI gains around 4.60% as cash trading resumes. Support 4.53%, resistance 4.66%."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
12:25 US Dollar Index (DXY) trims gains after hitting 19-month highs at 103.08
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reversed previous daily gains, returning to levels below 103.00 after hitting fresh 19-month highs at 103.08 earlier in the day.
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In the four-hour chart, the DXY is showing a mild bearish correction as bulls were capped at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the November 5-6 rally, at the 103.10 area on Wednesday. Momentum indicators on 4-hour charts remain positive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) already below the 70 level that marks overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays in positive territory, reinforcing the constructive bias.Downside attempts are being contained above 102.80 so far, with the next bearish target below here, at the late October and early November highs, between 102.40 and 102.50. On the topside, initial resistance aligns at the horizontal barrier near 103.10, followed by the April 8, 2025 high, in the 103.50 area. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
In the four-hour chart, the DXY is showing a mild bearish correction as bulls were capped at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the November 5-6 rally, at the 103.10 area on Wednesday. Momentum indicators on 4-hour charts remain positive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) already below the 70 level that marks overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays in positive territory, reinforcing the constructive bias.Downside attempts are being contained above 102.80 so far, with the next bearish target below here, at the late October and early November highs, between 102.40 and 102.50. On the topside, initial resistance aligns at the horizontal barrier near 103.10, followed by the April 8, 2025 high, in the 103.50 area. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
11:48 USD/JPY: Intervention risk near 160 – Societe Generale
Societe Generale notes USD/JPY trading just below 160, with Japan’s Ministry of Finance warning markets not to forget FX intervention risks as yields and Dollar strength persist.
Societe Generale notes USD/JPY trading just below 160, with Japan’s Ministry of Finance warning markets not to forget FX intervention risks as yields and Dollar strength persist. The pair has reached its highest level since early September before meeting resistance near 160, with clearly defined support and resistance levels and sizeable option strikes that could shape short-term trading.Japanese Yen faces intervention warnings"Japan’s Mimura: markets shouldn’t forget intervention risks as USD/JPY nears 160.""USD/JPY: 159.48 – 159.95 overnight range. Spot up to highest since 2 September before running into resistance near 160 on MoF FX intervention comments (Mimura). Support 158.70, resistance 160.90.""European and US investors returning from the public holiday find the dollar broadening its CPI-driven gains and key technical levels coming under pressure across the majors. EUR/USD is trading with a 1.10 handle, USD/JPY is approaching 160, GBP/USD stumbled in the high 1.32s and AUD/USD must dig in to defend 0.68."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
11:41 Iran conflict: US strategy split and blockade risks – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Global Daily outlines diverging US positions on Iran, with Vice-President Vance exploring direct talks while President Donald Trump criticises the existing MoU and demands “total victory.”
Rabobank’s Global Daily outlines diverging US positions on Iran, with Vice-President Vance exploring direct talks while President Donald Trump criticises the existing MoU and demands “total victory.” Blockade dilemmas and security threats"US Vice-President Vance is reportedly considering direct talks with Iran’s key hard-liner Mohsen Rezai in another push to end the war.""In the middle, the new White House Chief of Staff Miller reportedly prefers the economic blockade to continue indefinitely.""Tehran’s rhetoric remains that the only terms on offer are a de facto US strategic defeat:""Notably, however, Saudi oil production has now rebounded close to prewar levels for now showing that Iran’s leverage decreases over time, at least in crude if not refined products… unless it escalates further.""On that front, US Treasury Secretary Bessent has had to move his family to a military base after threats linked to Iran, as Miller, Secretary of State Rubio, and Attorney General Blanche are also now forced to reside in different ones(!)"(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
11:36 EUR/USD: Slippery slope if 1.10 breaks – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights renewed Dollar strength pressuring EUR/USD towards the key 1.10 level, with the pair already below its 200-week moving average and challenging the May 2025 trough.
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights renewed Dollar strength pressuring EUR/USD towards the key 1.10 level, with the pair already below its 200-week moving average and challenging the May 2025 trough. Euro pressured by rates and politics"EUR/USD down 10 big figures since January and in trouble after erasing 200wma (1.1110).""Throw in the uncertainty relating to the French Presidential election next April, the succession before that at the helm of the ECB in February, the bearish seasonality that typically governs the single currency early in the new year, and you have a toxic backdrop that keeps EUR/USD on a slippery slope.""If the Fed then seriously considers a back-to-back hike in January (provided it doesn’t deliver a jumbo 50bp in December), EUR/USD could find itself in trouble below 1.10 in early 2027, if not sooner.""A further 3.5% decline from around current levels would take EUR/USD towards 1.0620, the long-term ascending trend line connecting the 2022 low of 0.9536 and the 2025 low of 1.0141."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $50.91 per troy ounce, down 1.57% from the $51.72 it cost on Wednesday.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $50.91 per troy ounce, down 1.57% from the $51.72 it cost on Wednesday.Silver prices have decreased by 28.38% since the beginning of the year.Unit measureSilver Price Today in USDTroy Ounce50.911 Gram1.64The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 77.22 on Thursday, up from 77.05 on Wednesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
11:26 Oil: Hormuz mine strikes support Brent rebound – Commerzbank
Commerzbank Research highlights escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, with reported mine strikes on tankers and disrupted LNG flows, as a key driver of Oil’s rebound.
Commerzbank Research highlights escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, with reported mine strikes on tankers and disrupted LNG flows, as a key driver of Oil’s rebound. Hormuz conflict underpins Brent prices"Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated overnight.""Iran’s IRGC Navy claimed two additional oil tankers struck mines while attempting to transit the waterway, with both vessels reportedly on fire.""Brent crude rose 1.2% to USD92.63, as the latest Hormuz mine incidents provided a floor to prices despite the broader November slide of approximately 17%."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
11:25 CEE FX: Strong Dollar and energy rebound weigh – ING
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes that rising global energy prices and a stronger Dollar are pressuring Central and Eastern European currencies. EUR/PLN is near 4.420, EUR/CZK at its highest since mid-October, and EUR/HUF above 365. ING maintains a bearish view on CEE FX, expecting further downside for regional currencies as markets follow the broader global narrative ahead of local GDP data and CNB minutes.
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes that rising global energy prices and a stronger Dollar are pressuring Central and Eastern European currencies. EUR/PLN is near 4.420, EUR/CZK at its highest since mid-October, and EUR/HUF above 365. ING maintains a bearish view on CEE FX, expecting further downside for regional currencies as markets follow the broader global narrative ahead of local GDP data and CNB minutes.
Regional currencies face renewed downside pressure
"Following a rebound in global energy prices, we observed a rise in rates across the CZK and HUF markets, roughly 5-8bp along the entire curve. At the same time, CEE FX has come under renewed pressure due to energy prices and the US dollar reaching new highs."
"EUR/PLN has returned to near its local high of around 4.420. EUR/CZK has reached its highest levels since mid-October, and EUR/HUF has moved above 365."
"This aligns with our bearish view on CEE FX, and we maintain this bias."
"Until then, however, the direction remains unchanged, and we may see further downside for CEE currencies."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
11:24 US Dollar: Fed repricing supports stronger levels – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that the US Dollar has extended gains, pushing the Dollar Index to a fresh year-to-date high as markets price a faster pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that the US Dollar has extended gains, pushing the Dollar Index to a fresh year-to-date high as markets price a faster pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Futures now fully discount a 25bps move in December and additional tightening into January, with upcoming Fed speakers seen as key for confirming the likelihood of back-to-back hikes.Dollar index climbs on Fed repricing"The US dollar has continued to strengthen overnight resulting in the dollar index hitting a fresh year-to-date high of 103.08. The US dollar’s renewed upward momentum has been encouraged by expectations that the Fed is likely to speed up the pace of rate hikes in response to the recent run of stronger US inflation data.""There are currently around 28bps of hikes priced by December, and 43bps of hikes priced by the following meeting in January indicating that even if the Fed hikes by 25bps in December it is now expected to quickly follow up with another 25bps hike at the start of next year.""The updated views of New York Fed President John Williams could carry more weight. He stated earlier this month that it is an “appropriate time to accumulate more information to help us determine what the appropriate stance of policy is to make sure we achieve a timely return to our 2% target”. While we don’t expect a larger 50bps hike to be delivered in December, it is more likely now that the Fed could hike rates back-to-back in December and January."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
11:22 Euro holds gains against Canadian Dollar despite ECB rate hike doubts, rising oil prices
EUR/CAD inches higher after two days of losses, trading around 1.5810 during European hours on Thursday. However, the currency cross may face further challenges as the Euro (EUR) remains under pressure.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Euro may struggle as the ECB is expected to halt interest rate hikes after December due to growing economic uncertainty.Rising crude oil prices could lift the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar, putting downward pressure on the EUR/CAD cross.Persistent Middle East tensions and deadlocked US–Iran nuclear talks continue to limit downside risks for oil prices.EUR/CAD inches higher after two days of losses, trading around 1.5810 during European hours on Thursday. However, the currency cross may face further challenges as the Euro (EUR) remains under pressure.Market experts doubt that the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary tightening cycle can be sustained in the long run. Although the ECB has raised interest rates twice this year and is projected to deliver one final hike at its December meeting, growing economic uncertainty is expected to halt further tightening afterward.Strategists at Rabobank caution that, while another rate increase in December remains likely, “the ECB, however, could prove to be reluctant to hike rates beyond December.” They note that “the last ECB press conference suggested that the GC were becoming increasingly concerned about the growth outlook,” reinforcing the view that mounting downside risks to Eurozone activity may temper the central bank’s appetite for further tightening once this year’s move is delivered.Additionally, the EUR/CAD cross is depreciating as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains support from rising oil prices. Crude oil prices have recovered their daily losses because persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are offsetting the downward pressure caused by increasing regional crude output.According to Reuters, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that the market is currently in a "no war, no peace" situation. This dynamic is allowing Middle East oil production to recover from recent disruptions despite the deadlock in US–Iran negotiations. While the returning supply is pressuring crude prices, Hansen stated that lingering geopolitical risks will likely limit any further downside.Meanwhile, Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei declared in televised remarks that Iran will not allow even a single particle of enriched nuclear material to leave the country, warning of consequences if the US launches new strikes. For its part, Washington has insisted that nuclear issues must be included in any initial negotiations aimed at ending the eight-month-old war, though US officials have downplayed the need for further military action. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.03% 0.03% -0.11% 0.03% 0.36% 0.09% -0.10% EUR 0.03% 0.05% -0.07% 0.04% 0.39% 0.10% -0.08% GBP -0.03% -0.05% -0.13% -0.01% 0.33% 0.06% -0.14% JPY 0.11% 0.07% 0.13% 0.12% 0.46% 0.18% -0.00% CAD -0.03% -0.04% 0.01% -0.12% 0.34% 0.06% -0.12% AUD -0.36% -0.39% -0.33% -0.46% -0.34% -0.27% -0.46% NZD -0.09% -0.10% -0.06% -0.18% -0.06% 0.27% -0.16% CHF 0.10% 0.08% 0.14% 0.00% 0.12% 0.46% 0.16% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
11:21 US labor market: Watching claims and wages – UBS
Paul Donovan at UBS points out that US initial jobless claims may draw attention in a quiet data calendar, alongside upcoming Housing data.
Paul Donovan at UBS points out that US initial jobless claims may draw attention in a quiet data calendar, alongside upcoming Housing data. Jobless claims and wage-price risks"US initial jobless claims data may get some attention in an otherwise relatively quiet data calendar.""US policy-makers would have to be concerned if there were evidence of a really tight labor market, creating a wage-price spiral.""However, in spite of repeated inflation shocks, that has not emerged.""Housing data is also due."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
11:19 India: RBI seen hiking if CPI tops 6% – Commerzbank
Commerzbank Research expects India’s October CPI inflation to rise above 6% year‑on‑year, driven by high Oil prices, strong domestic demand and an unfavourable base. The report notes RBI’s projections keep inflation near the top of its target band through mid‑2027, implying further rate hikes. OIS pricing suggests cumulative tightening of nearly 90bp by February 2027.
Commerzbank Research expects India’s October CPI inflation to rise above 6% year‑on‑year, driven by high Oil prices, strong domestic demand and an unfavourable base. The report notes RBI’s projections keep inflation near the top of its target band through mid‑2027, implying further rate hikes. OIS pricing suggests cumulative tightening of nearly 90bp by February 2027.
Sticky inflation keeps RBI on tightening path
"It is expected to climb further and could well exceed 6% you compared to 5.5% in September."
"More worryingly for RBI, this low base effect will persist into November and December, which is likely to keep inflation elevated above 6.0% throughout Q4 2026."
"In the October review, RBI projected inflation at 6% in Q4 2026, and for it stay firm for the next two quarters, at 5.7% in Q1 2027 and 5.6% in Q2 2027."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
11:16 UK GDP: Growth stays resilient – UBS
UBS economist Paul Donovan notes that UK GDP has maintained recent strength, with further gains in the third quarter driven mainly by Services. He highlights that UK consumers have seen small positive real income growth and still have scope to lower savings rates, supporting ongoing consumption.
UBS economist Paul Donovan notes that UK GDP has maintained recent strength, with further gains in the third quarter driven mainly by Services. He highlights that UK consumers have seen small positive real income growth and still have scope to lower savings rates, supporting ongoing consumption.Services-led expansion supports consumption"UK GDP continued its recent strength, with further gains in the third quarter.""Services led growth, with car and chemical imports the main offset.""UK consumers have generally experienced a small positive real income growth, but have room to reduce savings rates and continue consuming."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
11:16 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bears testing support at previous highs around 0.8315
The US Dollar (USD) posts moderate losses against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Thursday, trimming gains after a 1.7% rally over the previous two days pushed momentum indicators into overbought levels on intraday charts.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}USD/CHF corrects lower from four-week highs at 0,8337 to test support in the 0.8310-0.8315 area.Market expectations of a Fed rate hike in December are likely to limit US Dollar dips.The technical picture shows a mild correction from overbought levels.
The US Dollar (USD) posts moderate losses against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Thursday, trimming gains after a 1.7% rally over the previous two days pushed momentum indicators into overbought levels on intraday charts. The USD/CHF pair trades at 0.8320 after pulling back from one-month highs near 0.8340, testing support at previous highs between 0.8310 and 0.8315.Dollar dips, however, are expected to remain shallow, as recent US data, namely the hot consumer inflation figures seen on Tuesday and the strong employment report released last week, have paved the way for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike interest rates again in December.Fed officials have endorsed that view, and some of them might reiterate their stance later on Thursday. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly have already expressed their concern about the high inflation pressures earlier this week. New York Fed President John Williams, who is also expected to speak later in the day, has already hinted at a further rate hike before year-end. Bearing this in mind, it is difficult to foresee any significant US Dollar reversal.Technical Analysis: Pulling back from overbought levels
Bulls found resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October-November rally, and the pair is now correcting lower from oversold levels, with dips likely to find buyers. The USD/CHF is now trading at 0.8322, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovering near 67, still close to overbought territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in positive territory, which suggests that buying pressure is still present even as upside appears to be slowing.Bears are struggling to push prices below the mentioned support area above 0.8310. Below here, the next relevant target is at the November 10 high, near 0.8270, although it seems a far-away level for today. On the topside, a confirmation above the mentioned Fibonacci retracement of 0.8337 would expose a key resistance at the October 14 high at 0.8395,(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.03% 0.00% -0.11% 0.02% 0.34% 0.09% -0.11% EUR 0.03% 0.04% -0.07% 0.04% 0.38% 0.10% -0.09% GBP -0.01% -0.04% -0.11% 0.04% 0.34% 0.05% -0.13% JPY 0.11% 0.07% 0.11% 0.12% 0.45% 0.18% -0.00% CAD -0.02% -0.04% -0.04% -0.12% 0.33% 0.06% -0.13% AUD -0.34% -0.38% -0.34% -0.45% -0.33% -0.25% -0.45% NZD -0.09% -0.10% -0.05% -0.18% -0.06% 0.25% -0.17% CHF 0.11% 0.09% 0.13% 0.00% 0.13% 0.45% 0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) posts moderate losses against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Thursday, trimming gains after a 1.7% rally over the previous two days pushed momentum indicators into overbought levels on intraday charts. The USD/CHF pair trades at 0.8320 after pulling back from one-month highs near 0.8340, testing support at previous highs between 0.8310 and 0.8315.Dollar dips, however, are expected to remain shallow, as recent US data, namely the hot consumer inflation figures seen on Tuesday and the strong employment report released last week, have paved the way for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike interest rates again in December.Fed officials have endorsed that view, and some of them might reiterate their stance later on Thursday. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly have already expressed their concern about the high inflation pressures earlier this week. New York Fed President John Williams, who is also expected to speak later in the day, has already hinted at a further rate hike before year-end. Bearing this in mind, it is difficult to foresee any significant US Dollar reversal.Technical Analysis: Pulling back from overbought levels
Bulls found resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October-November rally, and the pair is now correcting lower from oversold levels, with dips likely to find buyers. The USD/CHF is now trading at 0.8322, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovering near 67, still close to overbought territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in positive territory, which suggests that buying pressure is still present even as upside appears to be slowing.Bears are struggling to push prices below the mentioned support area above 0.8310. Below here, the next relevant target is at the November 10 high, near 0.8270, although it seems a far-away level for today. On the topside, a confirmation above the mentioned Fibonacci retracement of 0.8337 would expose a key resistance at the October 14 high at 0.8395,(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.03% 0.00% -0.11% 0.02% 0.34% 0.09% -0.11% EUR 0.03% 0.04% -0.07% 0.04% 0.38% 0.10% -0.09% GBP -0.01% -0.04% -0.11% 0.04% 0.34% 0.05% -0.13% JPY 0.11% 0.07% 0.11% 0.12% 0.45% 0.18% -0.00% CAD -0.02% -0.04% -0.04% -0.12% 0.33% 0.06% -0.13% AUD -0.34% -0.38% -0.34% -0.45% -0.33% -0.25% -0.45% NZD -0.09% -0.10% -0.05% -0.18% -0.06% 0.25% -0.17% CHF 0.11% 0.09% 0.13% 0.00% 0.13% 0.45% 0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
11:06 WTI Price Forecast: Downside bias persists while below 100-SMA hurdle near $86.80
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some dip-buyers on Thursday, climbing back above the $86.00 mark during the first half of the European session.
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The commodity, however, lacks follow-through and remains below the previous day's swing high as traders await further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis.US forces reportedly carried out a series of strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, while Tehran attacked ship navigation systems on the Omani island of Didamar, located at the entrance of the Persian Gulf. Moreover, Iranian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Kioumars Heidari said that Tehran has closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz and will not open it except by the order of the leader of the revolution. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and offers some support to crude oil prices.Investors, however, remain hopeful over a potential diplomatic breakthrough to end the US-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. Moreover, rising US crude inventories have fueled concerns about a potential supply glut, which holds back bulls from placing aggressive bets on the black liquid. In fact, US production for the week ending October 30 reached a new record; the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that US commercial crude inventories rose about 9 million barrels in the week ending November 6.From a technical perspective, crude oil prices maintain a bearish near-term tone beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86.81. Adding to this, momentum indicators reinforce the soft bias, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering near the low-30s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holding below zero with a negative histogram, hinting at persistent downside pressure. That said, the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $85.61 offers immediate structural support.A convincing break below would expose deeper Fibonacci floors at $81.26 (61.8%) and $75.06 (78.6%), while a more distant structural base emerges near $67.17. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at $86.81, followed by the 38.2% retracement at $89.96. A sustained break above these would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way toward the 23.6% retracement at $95.34, with the cycle high region near $104.04 remaining a remote barrier for now.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)WTI daily chart WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
10:58 US Dollar: Hawkish skew supports upside risks – ING
ING strategists led by Francesco Pesole note the Dollar’s rally is driven by hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and stronger US inflation, pushing DXY back to April 2025 levels. They stress this is a rates-driven move, with real front-end differentials supporting Dollar momentum. The team continues to see upside risks in coming days, with PPI flagged as a potential catalyst for another USD leg higher.
ING strategists led by Francesco Pesole note the Dollar’s rally is driven by hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and stronger US inflation, pushing DXY back to April 2025 levels. They stress this is a rates-driven move, with real front-end differentials supporting Dollar momentum. The team continues to see upside risks in coming days, with PPI flagged as a potential catalyst for another USD leg higher.
Rates-driven move underpins Dollar strength
"The combination of hawkish Fedspeak and a US CPI beat earlier this week continues to pay dividends for the dollar. DXY is now back at Liberation Day (April 2025) levels, with real front-end rate differentials continuing to fuel strong dollar momentum. Importantly, this remains a rates-driven move, with contained excessive USD strength relative to short-term fair value currently built in."
"We continue to see upside risks for the dollar in the coming days. The Fed's Chris Waller has put a 50bp December move on the radar, and that should keep markets biased towards hawkish interpretations of incoming data. December pricing remains at 28bp, leaving scope for further adjustment."
"Today’s home sales data are unlikely to matter, but tomorrow’s PPI will. That may be the catalyst for another USD leg higher."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
10:57 USD/JPY: Verbal intervention as pair nears 160 – MUFG
Lee Hardman at MUFG notes that USD/JPY has rebounded toward 160.00 as the stronger US Dollar and hawkish Fed repricing unwind September’s BoJ-driven correction.
Lee Hardman at MUFG notes that USD/JPY has rebounded toward 160.00 as the stronger US Dollar and hawkish Fed repricing unwind September’s BoJ-driven correction. Japanese officials have stepped up verbal intervention, signalling readiness to act again, while MUFG still expects the BoJ to maintain a faster quarterly pace of hikes in December despite dovish comments from board member Asada.Japan signals readiness to act again"The hawkish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations and stronger US dollar have resulted in USD/JPY rising back to within touching distance of the 160.00-level for the first time since the start of September.""With USD/JPY moving back towards pre-joint intervention levels from late July/early August, it has prompted Japanese officials to step up verbal intervention overnight to support the yen. Japan’s top currency official Atsushi Mimura stated overnight that “I have a strong impression that the currency moves over the past few days have been too fast”. He added that “it’s too early to forget what happened this summer”.""It sends a strong signal that Japan is prepared to intervene again to support the yen which should help to limit further upside for USD/JPY beyond 160.00.""However, it will be even more difficult to reverse the upward trend for USD/JPY right now with the USD strengthening broadly on the back of expectations for faster Fed rate hikes. If the rising risk of further intervention helps to stabilize USD/JPY while the US dollar continues to strengthen more broadly it could see non-USD yen crosses moving lower."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
10:54 Dow Jones futures remain steady amid hawkish Fed rate outlook, Nvidia leadership turmoil
Dow Jones futures remain steady around 52,580 during the European hours on Thursday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures decline 0.43% to trade around 7,610, and Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.92% to trade around 28,210.
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Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures decline 0.43% to trade around 7,610, and Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.92% to trade around 28,210.US equity futures face challenges amid growing hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook, fueled by hotter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.Traders have ramped up bets on a December rate hike after Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated earlier this week that he would support a quarter-point increase, or even a half-point move if inflation worsens. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in a nearly 91% probability of a December rate hike.Market sentiment turned cautious as Nvidia shares came under renewed selling pressure following reports of potential leadership turmoil at the chipmaker. During after-hours trading, the stock tumbled more than 8.5% after The New York Times reported allegations of a relationship between CEO Jensen Huang and a company executive, while The Wall Street Journal reported that the board was preparing to remove him from his position. Given Nvidia’s central role in the AI boom, instability at the company risks triggering broader repercussions across global markets.Earlier in the day, US equities closed Wednesday’s regular session higher, with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 gaining 1.6% and 1.31%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.49%. That rally was bolstered by a 25% surge in AI computing firm CoreWeave on the back of an optimistic business outlook, which helped reinforce investor confidence in the wider AI sector.US bond trading pauses as Veterans Day shuts Treasury marketAccording to HSBC, activity in the US rates complex was muted midweek as “the US Treasury market was closed in observance of Veterans Day,” temporarily removing a key reference point for bond pricing and cross-asset flows. AI stocks FAQs What is artificial intelligence? First and foremost, artificial intelligence is an academic discipline that seeks to recreate the cognitive functions, logical understanding, perceptions and pattern recognition of humans in machines. Often abbreviated as AI, artificial intelligence has a number of sub-fields including artificial neural networks, machine learning or predictive analytics, symbolic reasoning, deep learning, natural language processing, speech recognition, image recognition and expert systems. The end goal of the entire field is the creation of artificial general intelligence or AGI. This means producing a machine that can solve arbitrary problems that it has not been trained to solve. What are AI applications? There are a number of different use cases for artificial intelligence. The most well-known of them are generative AI platforms that use training on large language models (LLMs) to answer text-based queries. These include ChatGPT and Google’s Bard platform. Midjourney is a program that generates original images based on user-created text. Other forms of AI utilize probabilistic techniques to determine a quality or perception of an entity, like Upstart’s lending platform, which uses an AI-enhanced credit rating system to determine credit worthiness of applicants by scouring the internet for data related to their career, wealth profile and relationships. Other types of AI use large databases from scientific studies to generate new ideas for possible pharmaceuticals to be tested in laboratories. YouTube, Spotify, Facebook and other content aggregators use AI applications to suggest personalized content to users by collecting and organizing data on their viewing habits. What are some stocks that fit into the AI field? Nvidia (NVDA) is a semiconductor company that builds both the AI-focused computer chips and some of the platforms that AI engineers use to build their applications. Many proponents view Nvidia as the pick-and-shovel play for the AI revolution since it builds the tools needed to carry out further applications of artificial intelligence. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is a “big data” analytics company. It has large contracts with the US intelligence community, which uses its Gotham platform to sift through data and determine intelligence leads and inform on pattern recognition. Its Foundry product is used by major corporations to track employee and customer data for use in predictive analytics and discovering anomalies. Microsoft (MSFT) has a large stake in ChatGPT creator OpenAI, the latter of which has not gone public. Microsoft has integrated OpenAI’s technology with its Bing search engine. Could artificial intelligence generate another stock bubble? Following the introduction of ChatGPT to the general public in late 2022, many stocks associated with AI began to rally. Nvidia for instance advanced well over 200% in the six months following the release. Immediately, pundits on Wall Street began to wonder whether the market was being consumed by another tech bubble. Famous investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has held major investments in both Palantir and Nvidia, said that bubbles never last just six months. He said that if the excitement over AI did become a bubble, then the extreme valuations would last at least two and a half years or long like the DotCom bubble in the late 1990s. At the midpoint of 2023, the best guess is that the market is not in a bubble, at least for now. Yes, Nvidia traded at 27 times forward sales at that time, but analysts were predicting extremely high revenue growth for years to come. At the height of the DotCom bubble, the NASDAQ 100 traded for 60 times earnings, but in mid-2023 the index traded at 25 times earnings.
10:54 Global equities: Nvidia turmoil raises chip and AI risks – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Global Daily notes that Nvidia’s board is reportedly discussing removing Jensen Huang as CEO after personal and export-control related allegations, creating turbulence for global equities given heavy US and AI concentration.
Rabobank’s Global Daily notes that Nvidia’s board is reportedly discussing removing Jensen Huang as CEO after personal and export-control related allegations, creating turbulence for global equities given heavy US and AI concentration. The report highlights potential chaos in the global chip trade, questions around US export-control enforcement, and broader geoeconomic ramifications involving China, rare earths and regional security dynamics.Nvidia leadership shock and chip risks"The Nvidia board is meeting to discuss removing Jensen Huang as CEO after revelations of an affair with a woman alleged to be a Chinese spy, another with a co-worker, and allegations the firm lobbied for and engaged in supplying China with chips despite export controls.""It’s not just about his leadership. As the Australian Financial Review summarises, “Huang’s love life could throw the global chip trade into chaos.” This affair is seen as a “counterintelligence nightmare” given his close links to Trump, e.g., riding to Beijing on Air Force One.""Even worse, if the US decision to look the other way on chip sales was a geoeconomic bribe to ensure Chinese rare earths and help in geopolitics, then things could get far more turbulent.""In short, do we get escalation or de-escalation? Our base case remains the former, and we do not yet see a sustainable path to the latter."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
10:50 Brent: Inflation expectations rise on price rebound – Deutsche Bank
Jim Reid’s team at Deutsche Bank reports that Brent Oil prices rebounded by 1.2% after two days of declines, even without a clear headline driver. This move fed into higher inflation expectations, with 1‑year Euro inflation swaps rising to 3.02%.
Jim Reid’s team at Deutsche Bank reports that Brent Oil prices rebounded by 1.2% after two days of declines, even without a clear headline driver. This move fed into higher inflation expectations, with 1‑year Euro inflation swaps rising to 3.02%. The bank also notes that Brent later fell back about a percent overnight, leaving prices roughly unchanged versus the prior morning.Oil rebound lifts Euro inflation expectations"Turning to the Middle East, oil prices were back up again yesterday, albeit with no obvious headline driving the moves. So after two days of consecutive declines, Brent crude rose +1.2% after being higher earlier in the session. And in turn, we saw the impact on inflation pricing, with 1yr Euro inflation swaps (+9.3bps) rising to +3.02%.""However, overnight Brent has fallen around a percent taking it back to roughly where it was this time yesterday. So a big round trip. That’s helped 10yr US yields reopen half a basis point lower this morning after the holiday."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
10:47 EUR/USD: Downside risks toward 1.10 – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that divergent central bank rhetoric between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank is weighing on the Euro against the Dollar. Wider two-year swap differentials favour USD, leaving EUR/USD at risk of testing 1.100 in coming days. ING expects that level to offer solid support, arguing a decisive break below 1.100 would likely require markets to price a 50bp Fed hike in December.
ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that divergent central bank rhetoric between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank is weighing on the Euro against the Dollar. Wider two-year swap differentials favour USD, leaving EUR/USD at risk of testing 1.100 in coming days. ING expects that level to offer solid support, arguing a decisive break below 1.100 would likely require markets to price a 50bp Fed hike in December.
Rate differentials pressure the Euro
"That contrast neatly captures the current EUR/USD story. The pair's two-year swap rate differential has widened by around 15bp over the past five sessions, and we think the scope for further repricing is greater in front-end USD rates than EUR rates in the near term."
"That leaves EUR/USD at material risk of testing 1.100 in the coming days. We expect that level to offer relatively solid support, not least because the pair is already trading at a nearly 2% discount to our short-term fair value."
"A decisive move below 1.100 would probably require markets to seriously entertain a 50bp December hike. That looks like a stretch for now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
10:40 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $51.50 ahead of US key economic data
Silver price (XAG/USD) depreciates after posting modest gains in the previous day, trading around $51.40 per troy ounce during the European hours on Thursday. Dollar-denominated Silver falls as a stronger US Dollar (USD) weighs on the precious metal.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver prices remain sensitive to shifting rate expectations and broader US Dollar momentum ahead of the data.Traders turn their focus to upcoming US weekly Jobless Claims, existing home sales, and producer inflation figures.Fresh economic releases are expected to provide critical direction on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.Silver price (XAG/USD) depreciates after posting modest gains in the previous day, trading around $51.40 per troy ounce during the European hours on Thursday. Dollar-denominated Silver falls as a stronger US Dollar (USD) weighs on the precious metal.The Greenback remains stronger amid growing hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook, fueled by hotter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.Traders have ramped up bets on a December rate hike after Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated earlier this week that he would support a quarter-point increase, or even a half-point move if inflation worsens. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in a nearly 91% probability of a December rate hike.Market participants are now shifting their focus to key upcoming US economic data, including weekly Jobless Claims, existing home sales, and producer inflation figures, for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory.Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $51.40, keeping a bearish near-term bias as price remains below both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This positioning suggests that rallies are being capped by short- and medium-term trend resistance. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.21 sits below the 50 line, hinting at persistent downside pressure rather than oversold exhaustion, while the elevated FXS Fed Sentiment Index at 145.61 reinforces a backdrop of tightening policy expectations that continues to weigh on silver prices.On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the nine-period EMA at $51.99, with a more substantial barrier at the 50-period EMA near $57.29, where any recovery would likely struggle unless momentum improves. Beyond these technical caps, the FXS Fed Sentiment Index level at 145.61 underscores the macro headwind environment for XAG/USD. On the downside, momentum support is implied by the RSI region around 38.21, where previous dips have slowed, though a clear structural price floor is not visible in the current dataset, leaving the metal vulnerable to further declines if $51.35 gives way.XAG/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
10:38 Euro finds temporary support near 1.1066 against US Dollar, outlook remains uncertain
The Euro (EUR) finds cushion after posting a fresh 18-month low near 1.1066 against the US Dollar (USD) during the day, trading almost flat at around 1.1090 in the European trade. The EUR/USD pair rebounds slightly on Thursday as the US Dollar gives back some of its early gains.
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The EUR/USD pair rebounds slightly on Thursday as the US Dollar gives back some of its early gains.In European session, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, retreats to near 102.90 after posting a fresh 18-month high at 103.08 during the day.The outlook of the US Dollar remains firm as traders have raised hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations further in the wake of rising United States (US) inflation.Fed funds futures extend hawkish repricing after CPIAnalysts at Deutsche Bank note that, even with US Treasury cash markets closed, the “hawkish implications from the CPI print continued to be felt in futures pricing yesterday.” They highlight that “Fed funds futures continued to shift in a hawkish direction, with pricing for the December meeting edging up to 28.5bps.” Further along the curve, Deutsche Bank points out that “expectations for the September 2027 meeting surged another +7bps to 82bps, although that’s edged back down to 77bps overnight,” underscoring how the CPI release has materially repriced the path of Fed policy.Going forward, the US inflation strength would be tested by the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October, which is scheduled for Friday.Meanwhile, the Euro is broadly under pressure as market experts doubt that the monetary tightening cycle by the European Central Bank (ECB) will sustain in the long run. The ECB has raised interest rates twice this year and is expected to deliver one more in the December meeting, but that is expected to be its last one due to growing economic uncertainty.Eurozone growth worries temper expectations for further ECB tighteningStrategists at Rabobank caution that the ECB may be nearing the end of its current tightening cycle, noting that “the ECB, however, could prove to be reluctant to hike rates beyond December.” They point out that “the last ECB press conference suggested that the Governing Council was becoming increasingly concerned about the growth outlook,” reinforcing the view that policymakers are likely to adopt a more cautious stance on further rate increases once the December move is out of the way.EUR/USD Technical AnalysisIn the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1091, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1185. The pair remains capped by this dynamic barrier, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 stays in bearish territory but above oversold, hinting at persistent downside pressure rather than exhaustion.On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.1185, and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish tone. As long as EUR/USD remains under this moving average, rallies are likely to be sold, leaving the pair vulnerable to fresh lows into uncharted support levels on the chart.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
10:32 Japanese Yen decline halts a few pips shy of 160.00 as intervention risks grow
The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, following a nearly 1.25% selloff over the previous two days, hammered by growing monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
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The USD/JPY rally has stalled around 159.80, as the 160.00 level is considered a key milestone for Tokyo authorities.Investors have ramped up US Dollar long positions following hot US consumer inflation data earlier this week and a string of hawkish comments from Fed officials calling for another interest rate hike in December. Futures markets are fully pricing in further Fed tightening after the US central bank’s meeting on December 9, with a nearly 10% chance of a half-point rate hike, according to data from the CME’s FedWatch Tool. Later on Thursday, a myriad of Fed officials will hit the wires and provide a clearer picture of the bank’s near-term plans.Dovish BoJ comments dampen expectations of a December rate hikeIn Japan, the scenario is diametrically different, especially after BoJ policymaker Toichiro Asada, one of the two dovish dissenters at September’s meeting, warned that pushing borrowing costs higher might weigh on growth and underlying inflation. These comments cast doubt over market expectations of another rate hike at the next meeting, due on December 17, and have added pressure on the Japanese Yen.Data from Japan released earlier on the day has been supportive, as producer inflation figures provided further reasons for BoJ hawks. The Producer Price Index (PPI) accelerated to 7.1% in the 12 months to October, beating expectations of a 6.5% reading and following a 6.8% growth in September. Analysts at MUFG, however, see the Yen supported by “signs that confidence in the JGB market has improved, no doubt helped by the more active BoJ and the general consensus that within one or two hikes, the BoJ would be at the neutral policy rate.” Considering this, and with “intervention likely halting the prospects to the upside, and confidence in the BoJ improving,” MUFG experts conclude that “the risks certainly look more skewed to Yen strength over the medium term.” Economic Indicator Producer Price Index (MoM) The Producer Price Index released by the Bank of Japan is a measure of prices for goods purchased by domestic corporates in Japan. The PPI is correlated with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and is a way to measure changes in manufacturing cost and inflation in Japan. A high reading is seen as anticipatory of a rate hike and is positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish). Read more. Last release: Wed Nov 11, 2026 23:50 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 0.7% Consensus: 0.3% Previous: -0.3% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan Economic Indicator Producer Price Index (YoY) The Producer Price Index released by the Bank of Japan is a measure of prices for goods purchased by domestic corporates in Japan. The PPI is correlated with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and is a way to measure changes in manufacturing cost and inflation in Japan. A high reading is seen as anticipatory of a rate hike and is positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish). Read more. Last release: Wed Nov 11, 2026 23:50 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 7.1% Consensus: 6.5% Previous: 6.8% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
10:13 New Zealand Dollar depreciates as hawkish Fed rate hike bets lift US Dollar
NZD/USD loses ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5550 during European hours on Thursday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Hot US inflation and hawkish Fed signals boost December rate hike probabilities, strengthening the US Dollar.New Zealand’s 10-year bond yield drops to 4.76% amid strong auction demand following preliminary election results.Potential continuity for the National-led coalition could support the NZD, though official election results await November 27.NZD/USD loses ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5550 during European hours on Thursday. The currency pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm amid growing hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook, fueled by hotter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.Traders have ramped up bets on a December rate hike after Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated earlier this week that he would support a quarter-point increase, or even a half-point move if inflation worsens. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in an 87% probability of a December rate hike, alongside nearly a 13% chance of a larger 50-basis-point increase.In New Zealand, the 10-year government bond yield is down 3 basis points to 4.76% at the time of writing, driven by strong auction demand after preliminary election results eased concerns over the country's fiscal outlook.Meanwhile, preliminary election results indicating that the incumbent National-led coalition could retain power offered some support for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), as this outcome would likely preserve the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) sole focus on inflation alongside current government spending policies. However, the political picture remains uncertain ahead of the official results on November 27.Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman highlight that political developments remain central to the New Zealand policy outlook, noting that "New Zealand's ruling center-right coalition holds a one-seat majority following Sunday’s election, with final results due November 27." They stress that the incumbent coalition led by the National Party "wants to stick to the RBNZ’s sole price stability mandate which has been in place since December 2023," in contrast to the Labour Party, which "ran on a proposal to return to a dual inflation-employment mandate." This clear divergence on the central bank’s framework is seen as an important backdrop for market pricing of the policy path. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
10:06 British Pound moves little after UK GDP as intervention risks support Yen
The GBP/JPY cross reverses a modest intraday dip, climbing back to the 212.00 mark during the early European session on Thursday, though it remains confined within a range held over the past week or so.
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Spot prices react little to upbeat UK macro releases, with the prevailing selling bias surrounding the Japanese Yen (JPY) acting as a tailwind amid looming intervention risks.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the first quarterly estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which showed that the UK economy grew by 0.7% during the July to September period. Meanwhile, the yearly rate stood at 1.9%, which marks a notable acceleration from 1.4% YoY in the previous quarter. Other UK data showed that Industrial Production increased 0.3%, while Manufacturing Production rose 0.7% in September, both coming in stronger than market expectations. The data, however, fails to provide any respite to the British Pound (GBP) amid a bullish US Dollar (USD).Meanwhile, the JPY continues to underperform despite firming expectations of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening, bolstered by a rise in Japan's Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) for the first rise in three months. The wide interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies, including the UK, keeps the so-called carry trade active and continues to undermine the JPY. In fact, the BoJ policy rate is at 1.25%, while the Bank of England (BoE) raised its base rate to 4.00%, leaving the nominal rate differential of 275 basis points (bps), preserving yield advantage for the GBP.Meanwhile, Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura warned against excessive FX volatility, fueling intervention risks and holding back JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. This, in turn, acts as a headwind for the GBP/JPY cross, though the fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favor of bulls. However, some follow-through buying is needed to back the case for additional gains. Nevertheless, any corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to be limited. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Nov 12, 2026 07:00 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 0.7% Consensus: 0.7% Previous: 0.5% Source: Office for National Statistics
10:02 S&P 500: Tech rally offsets post‑CPI selloff – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid highlights a sharp rebound in US equities, led by AI‑linked and semiconductor names after CoreWeave’s strong earnings. The Philly Semiconductor Index and Nasdaq surged, lifting the S&P 500 back above pre‑midterm levels.
Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid highlights a sharp rebound in US equities, led by AI‑linked and semiconductor names after CoreWeave’s strong earnings. The Philly Semiconductor Index and Nasdaq surged, lifting the S&P 500 back above pre‑midterm levels. However, after‑hours news about Nvidia’s CEO saw its stock drop 8.6%, pulling Nasdaq and S&P futures lower again.AI and chips drive volatile gains"The crazy whipsawing post midterms continued yesterday as after the post-CPI selloff on Tuesday, markets bounced back again over the last 24 hours, as the positive momentum from CoreWeave’s (+24.71%) earnings drove a sharp rally in tech stocks.""So the Philly semiconductor index (+5.66%) helped drive the S&P 500 (+1.31%) back above its levels before the midterm elections. Who said markets didn't always go up after midterms! And over in Europe, both the STOXX 600 (+0.72%) and the DAX (+1.20%) moved up to fresh records.""However, the current volatility in the tech trade continues this morning as the WSJ reported after the US closing bell that the Nvidia board are planning to oust CEO Jensen Huang after the last few days of stories around him have surfaced. Their stock fell -8.6% in after-hours trading, which has pushed Nasdaq (-1.09%) and S&P (-0.45%) lower. So a big deal for one of the largest companies in the world.""Those upbeat earnings from CoreWeave were a boon for tech and chip stocks, with the Philly Semiconductor Stock Exchange up +5.66%, while the Nasdaq Composite (+1.6%) also climbed."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
09:41 US Dollar Index: Fed pricing supports renewed strength – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and colleagues highlight that Fed funds futures shifted in a more hawkish direction after the CPI release, lifting expectations for future rate hikes.
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and colleagues highlight that Fed funds futures shifted in a more hawkish direction after the CPI release, lifting expectations for future rate hikes. This helped push the Dollar Index to its highest level since April 2025, while the Euro fell to an 18‑month low against the Dollar, with EUR/USD closing near 1.109 and spot quoted at 1.108.Hawkish Fed repricing lifts Dollar"Whilst US Treasury markets were closed yesterday, the hawkish implications from the CPI print continued to be felt in futures pricing yesterday. Indeed, Fed funds futures continued to shift in a hawkish direction, with pricing for the December meeting edging up to 28.5bps. And further out the curve, expectations for the September 2027 meeting surged another +7bps to 82bps, although that’s edged back down to 77bps overnight.""The prospect of a more hawkish Fed helped push the dollar index (+0.66%) to its highest level since April 2025. Conversely, that also saw the euro (-0.66%) reach an 18-month low against the dollar, closing at around $1.109."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
09:37 Euro remains almost stable against British Pound after strong UK GDP data
The Euro (EUR) remains steady at around 0.8350 against the British Pound (GDP) in the European trade on Thursday, as the latter trades almost stable after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Q3 and September Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.
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On an annualized basis, the growth rate was also in line with estimates at 1.9%, faster than the previous reading of 1.4%.Month-on-Month (MoM) GDP growth in September was at 0.2%, while it was expected to remain flat again. The August GDP data was revised lower from 0.1%.Signs of strong UK economic growth are expected to provide relief to Bank of England (BoE) policymakers at a time when the central bank has entered a fresh monetary tightening cycle to tame accelerating price pressures.Going forward, the major trigger for the British Pound will be the UK labor market data for three months ending September and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October, which will be released next week. Both economic indicators are expected to have a significant impact on expectations of BoE’s monetary policy outlook. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Nov 12, 2026 07:00 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 0.7% Consensus: 0.7% Previous: 0.5% Source: Office for National Statistics
09:32 British Pound remains depressed despite upbeat UK GDP and industrial output data
The British Pound (GBP) edged up against the Dollar (USD) following the release of UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production figures on Thursday, yet with the broader bearish trend practically intact.
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The British Pound (GBP) edged up against the Dollar (USD) following the release of UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production figures on Thursday, yet with the broader bearish trend practically intact. The GBP/USD pair has picked up to 1.3260 from session lows around 1.3250, but it still shows a 1.4% decline in the last three days.UK Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) bounced up 0.7% in the third quarter after a downwardly revised 1% contraction in the second, according to preliminary data released by National Statistics on Thursday. The year-over-year (Y-o-Y) growth accelerated to 1.9% from 1.4% in the previous quarter, in both cases meeting market expectations.
The third quarter’s economic growth was supported by strong Industrial Production, which rose 0.3% in September and 3.1% Y-o-Y, beating expectations of -0.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The Index of Services, which measures the sector’s gross value added, increased 0.9% in the three months to September following a similar growth in the previous month.Fed tightening bets keep US Dollar dips limitedThe US Dollar, on the other hand, keeps marching higher against most peers. October’s US consumer inflation figures and comments from a string of Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have boosted hopes that the central bank will hike rates by at least 25 basis points at its December meeting.Strategists at Rabobank argue that “diminished fears about political interference on the Fed are a supportive factor for the USD,” helping to shore up confidence in US monetary policy. Looking ahead, “reduced concerns over the credibility of the greenback should allow it more opportunity to benefit from the US’s robust economic growth performance,” says Rabobank in a note.More Fed speakers will meet the press on Thursday. Among them are Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who have already shown their concern about high inflation earlier this week, as well as the influential New York Fed President, John Williams, who has been hinting at another rate hike before the year-end. The risk for the US Dollar is skewed to the upside. Economic Indicator Industrial Production (YoY) The Industrial Production released by the National Statistics measures outputs of the UK factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Nov 12, 2026 07:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3.1% Consensus: 2.9% Previous: 1.6% Source: Office for National Statistics Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (YoY) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Nov 12, 2026 07:00 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 1.9% Consensus: 1.9% Previous: 1.4% Source: Office for National Statistics
The British Pound (GBP) edged up against the Dollar (USD) following the release of UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production figures on Thursday, yet with the broader bearish trend practically intact. The GBP/USD pair has picked up to 1.3260 from session lows around 1.3250, but it still shows a 1.4% decline in the last three days.UK Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) bounced up 0.7% in the third quarter after a downwardly revised 1% contraction in the second, according to preliminary data released by National Statistics on Thursday. The year-over-year (Y-o-Y) growth accelerated to 1.9% from 1.4% in the previous quarter, in both cases meeting market expectations.
The third quarter’s economic growth was supported by strong Industrial Production, which rose 0.3% in September and 3.1% Y-o-Y, beating expectations of -0.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The Index of Services, which measures the sector’s gross value added, increased 0.9% in the three months to September following a similar growth in the previous month.Fed tightening bets keep US Dollar dips limitedThe US Dollar, on the other hand, keeps marching higher against most peers. October’s US consumer inflation figures and comments from a string of Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have boosted hopes that the central bank will hike rates by at least 25 basis points at its December meeting.Strategists at Rabobank argue that “diminished fears about political interference on the Fed are a supportive factor for the USD,” helping to shore up confidence in US monetary policy. Looking ahead, “reduced concerns over the credibility of the greenback should allow it more opportunity to benefit from the US’s robust economic growth performance,” says Rabobank in a note.More Fed speakers will meet the press on Thursday. Among them are Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who have already shown their concern about high inflation earlier this week, as well as the influential New York Fed President, John Williams, who has been hinting at another rate hike before the year-end. The risk for the US Dollar is skewed to the upside. Economic Indicator Industrial Production (YoY) The Industrial Production released by the National Statistics measures outputs of the UK factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Nov 12, 2026 07:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 3.1% Consensus: 2.9% Previous: 1.6% Source: Office for National Statistics Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (YoY) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Nov 12, 2026 07:00 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 1.9% Consensus: 1.9% Previous: 1.4% Source: Office for National Statistics
09:24 Forex Today: US Dollar Index climbs to fresh 19-month high, Gold drops below $4,000
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 11:
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Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 11:The US Dollar Index extends its rally, which was fuelled by hot inflation data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers, and trades at its highest level since April 2025 above 103.00 on Thursday. In the second half of the day, weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data will be featured in the US economic calendar. Investors will also continue to pay close attention to comments from central bank officials. US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.59% 0.69% 0.93% 1.00% 0.60% 0.22% 1.72% EUR -0.59% 0.11% 0.32% 0.41% 0.11% -0.36% 1.12% GBP -0.69% -0.11% 0.21% 0.29% 0.00% -0.48% 1.01% JPY -0.93% -0.32% -0.21% 0.06% -0.38% -0.69% 0.73% CAD -1.00% -0.41% -0.29% -0.06% -0.41% -0.79% 0.75% AUD -0.60% -0.11% -0.00% 0.38% 0.41% -0.47% 0.92% NZD -0.22% 0.36% 0.48% 0.69% 0.79% 0.47% 1.51% CHF -1.72% -1.12% -1.01% -0.73% -0.75% -0.92% -1.51% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The shift in the market-pricing of the Fed rate outlook helps the USD outperform its rivals this week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a nearly 62% chance of the Fed raising the policy rate by a total of 50 basis points (bps) in the next two meetings, compared to only 10% probability a week ago. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady at around 5% on Thursday after rising for three consecutive days, while US stock index futures stay in negative territory despite Wednesday's bullish action.Fed hike debate intensifies as MUFG flags risk-reward in favour of 25bpsAnalysts at MUFG/BTMU acknowledge that recent market moves have revived speculation over a more forceful policy response from the Fed, but they “remain sceptical of the need to hike by 50bps at this stage and suspect the majority will see the better risk-reward in going by 25bps.” They point out that “we still have another payrolls report (but no further CPI prints, although it’s the day after) before the FOMC meeting,” and caution that “a strong print plus a rebound in crude oil after the recent sharp drop would be one scenario of a possible more aggressive hike.”The UK's Office for National Statistics reported earlier in the day that the Gross Domestic Product expanded at an annual rate of 1.9% in the third quarter. This reading followed the 1.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter and matched the market expectation. Other data from the UK showed that Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production rose by 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively, on a monthly basis in September, with both prints coming in better than analysts' estimates. After losing more than 1% in a two-day slide, GBP/USD limits its losses on upbeat UK data but still trades at its lowest level in nearly a month at around 1.3250.Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Toichiro Asada said on Thursday that the central bank must be mindful of risk rate hikes that could push down underlying inflation given consumption lacks momentum. USD/JPY holds its ground after rising nearly 0.7% on Wednesday and trades at its highest level since early September near 160.00. Earleir in the day, the data from Japan showed that the Producer Price Index increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis in October, following the 0.2% decline reported in September.Hawkish Fed repricing continues to weigh heavily on Gold, with the previous metal losing more than 2.5% since the beginning of the week and trading at a new weekly low at around $3,960 in the European session on Thursday. EUR/USD struggles to shake off the bearish pressure and trades at its weakest level since May 2025 below 1.1100. AUD/USD declines for the third consecutive day on Thursday and closes in on 0.6800, while NZD/USD trades near 0.5500 after losing about 0.8% on Wednesday.USD/CAD is up nearly 1% this week and trades above 1.4250 in the European morning. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
09:13 Australian Dollar drops to fresh low since January, further below 0.6850 vs bullish USD
The AUD/USD pair drifts lower for the third straight day, also marking the fifth day of a negative move in the previous five, hitting a fresh low since January during the early European session on Thursday.
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Spot prices currently trade around the 0.6830 region, down 0.25% for the day, and seem vulnerable amid a combination of negative factors.The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been underperforming following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) dovish interest rate hike earlier this November, which came with a 6-3 vote split and the removal of explicit further-tightening guidance. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, extends its rally for the third straight day amid the growing acceptance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs again in December, further exerting pressure on the AUD/USD pair.The bets were reaffirmed by hotter-than-expected October US consumer inflation figures, released on Tuesday, and hawkish comments from several Fed officials. Moreover, traders have started pricing in the possibility of a jumbo 50-basis-point (bps) rate increase next month, which, along with geopolitical risks stemming from the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, further underpins the safe-haven Greenback and validates the near-term negative outlook for the AUD/USD pair.In fact, US forces reportedly carried out a series of strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, while Tehran attacked ship navigation systems on the Omani island of Didamar, located at the entrance of the Persian Gulf. Moreover, Iran's Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Kioumars Heidari said that Tehran has closed the strategic waterway and will not open it except by the order of the leader of the revolution, tempering hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end the ongoing conflict.Traders now look to the release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US, which, along with Fed speak and further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, might influence the buck and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favor of bearish traders, suggesting that any attempted recovery could be sold into and is more likely to fizzle out rather quickly.AUD/USD daily chartTechnical AnalysisThe AUD/USD pair extends a bearish near-term bias following the recent failed attempt to find acceptance above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7026 and a break below the 0.6900 mark. The latter forms the first meaningful resistance, and spot prices would need to reclaim this level to ease the immediate bearish tone and aim to retest the 100-day SMA at 0.7026. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Australian Dollar Price Last 7 Days The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 1.42% 1.63% 0.86% 2.14% 2.68% 1.33% 2.01% EUR -1.42% 0.21% -0.53% 0.70% 1.23% -0.10% 0.58% GBP -1.63% -0.21% -0.74% 0.49% 1.03% -0.29% 0.37% JPY -0.86% 0.53% 0.74% 1.25% 1.79% 0.43% 1.12% CAD -2.14% -0.70% -0.49% -1.25% 0.53% -0.80% -0.13% AUD -2.68% -1.23% -1.03% -1.79% -0.53% -1.30% -0.65% NZD -1.33% 0.10% 0.29% -0.43% 0.80% 1.30% 0.70% CHF -2.01% -0.58% -0.37% -1.12% 0.13% 0.65% -0.70% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
08:58 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Rally likely extend towards 104.00
The US Dollar (USD) outperforms its major currency peers, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), on Thursday, amid fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could turn aggressive on its current monetary tightening cycle to contain elevated inflationary pressures.
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US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.12% 0.14% -0.02% 0.05% 0.25% 0.19% -0.01% EUR -0.12% 0.03% -0.14% -0.07% 0.13% 0.08% -0.13% GBP -0.14% -0.03% -0.15% -0.10% 0.10% 0.06% -0.16% JPY 0.02% 0.14% 0.15% 0.05% 0.25% 0.20% -0.01% CAD -0.05% 0.07% 0.10% -0.05% 0.20% 0.15% -0.06% AUD -0.25% -0.13% -0.10% -0.25% -0.20% -0.03% -0.27% NZD -0.19% -0.08% -0.06% -0.20% -0.15% 0.03% -0.19% CHF 0.01% 0.13% 0.16% 0.01% 0.06% 0.27% 0.19% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
During the day, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh 18-month high at 103.08.However, the likelihood of a bigger Fed interest rate hike in the December meeting is very weak, but has done significant to lend strength to the United States (US) currency.Fed hike debate intensifies as Waller comments revive 50bp riskAnalysts at MUFG/BTMU note that the latest market rethink has been driven less by the inflation data itself and more by Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks ahead of the release. They highlight that “on this occasion the market rethink is to consider the prospect of a 50bp hike,” a possibility “only now being considered because of Waller’s comments prior to the CPI report rather than the CPI report itself.” Waller’s suggestion that “a stronger CPI print may warrant a 50bp hike” has, in their view, “sparked a debate over whether Waller had knowledge of the CPI print.”According to MUFG/BTMU, the repricing has filtered quickly into rates markets, with “the OIS market now partially pricing the risk of a 50bp hike on 9th December.” They point out that Waller “makes the point that the sticky inflation and energy risks warrant the reversal of the 75bps of cuts and hence why wait two meetings to do that,” reinforcing the case for a faster policy adjustment.Even so, MUFG/BTMU stress that “we remain sceptical of the need to hike by 50bps at this stage and suspect the majority will see the better risk-reward in going by 25bps.” They underline that there is “still another payrolls report (but no further CPI prints, although it’s the day after) before the FOMC meeting,” and caution that “a strong print plus a rebound in crude oil after the recent sharp drop would be one scenario of a possible more aggressive hike.”Going forward, financial markets will pay attention to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October, which will be released on Friday.US Dollar Index Technical AnalysisIn the weekly chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 103.02, extending a bullish breakout of the Cup and Holder formation. The pair now holds comfortably above the 10-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 101.69 and the former channel top around 102.07, suggesting a firm supportive structure beneath price.RSI (14) at 66.36 shows strong positive momentum and is approaching overbought territory, hinting that while the advance remains constructive, upside progress could slow if buying pressure becomes stretched.On the downside, initial support is seen at the former channel top near 102.07, followed by the 10-week EMA at 101.69 and the prior consolidation area around 101.64. A deeper pullback would likely seek the lower boundary of the channel near 100.84, where buyers could attempt to reassert control and preserve the broader bullish bias. On the upside, the index could extend its advance towards the 7 April 2025 high at 103.54, followed by 104.00(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Economic Indicator Producer Price Index (MoM) The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Read more. Next release: Fri Nov 13, 2026 13:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 0.4% Previous: 1.3% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
08:56 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Strengthens above 1.4250, retains positive bias above 100-day SMA
The USD/CAD pair gains momentum to around 1.4260 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Falling crude oil prices exert some selling pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD).
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Falling crude oil prices exert some selling pressure on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD).Russian and Ukrainian negotiators reached an agreement on a major prisoner exchange following two days of peace talks in Abu Dhabi, which concluded on Wednesday, per Reuters. However, US mediators noted that significant disagreements persist over key issues, particularly territorial matters. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed hope to achieve concrete results in resolving the war this year.It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Loonie.Traders raise their bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in December following hotter than expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller.Waller said earlier this week that he would support a quarter-point rate increase in December and might push for a half-point move if inflation data is worse than expected.USD strength seen extending against Canadian Dollar and Korean Won as BoC expectations fadeAccording to TD Securities, the US Dollar is likely to remain supported against select majors, with analysts seeing “room for the USD to rally selectively against CAD and KRW in the near-term.” They argue that “diverging employment data releases will likely keep USDCAD supported above 1.40,” noting that “rising unemployment rate amid falling wage growth rate in Canada also reduces the market pricing of a December BoC rate hike relative to the Fed.” In this context, TD Securities write that “for investors looking to chase USD upside, we see USDCAD more supported at 1.40 on the back of diverging jobs data.”Beyond the Canadian Dollar, TD Securities also highlight Korea and Mexico as contrasting cases. They expect “USDKRW should continue to retrace toward 1400 as the market rotates out of AI build-out theme,” while, “to the contrary, Carry and Value factors remain bullish for MXN,” underscoring a more constructive stance on the Mexican Peso even as they position for further USD strength against CAD and KRW.Goolsbee flags troubling inflation persistence, lifting Fed hawkish toneFed’s Goolsbee delivers a notably more hawkish message, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8/10 compared to the established baseline of 6.8/10, underscoring heightened concern over inflation dynamics. The emphasis that the latest CPI was “borderline disturbing,” that services inflation is “not coming down,” and that “we have a real inflation issue on our hands” signals growing unease about persistent price pressures and the risk of inflation expectations becoming entrenched, even as the job market remains “steady and stable.” By stressing that “everything is always on the table” and that the Fed “must get inflation down to target,” the speech reinforces the possibility of further policy tightening or an extended period of restrictive rates, a backdrop typically supportive of the Dollar against lower-yielding peers.The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.69 points to 145.61, firmly in hawkish territory and consistent with the stronger-than-usual tone captured by the FXS Speechtracker. This elevated reading, well above the neutral 100 mark, reflects a clear shift toward prioritizing inflation control over growth risks, a stance that should keep market expectations skewed toward higher-for-longer U.S. rates and underpin demand for the Dollar.
Technical Analysis: USD/CAD maintains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, USD/CAD sustains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price is also pressing just above the 20-day Bollinger upper band, indicating a strong upside extension, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 67 suggests firm positive momentum, though edging toward overbought territory.On the downside, immediate support level is seen at the former Bollinger upper band near 1.4240, followed by the October 7 low of 1.4205, and then the 20-day Bollinger middle band at 1.4065. A breach of this level could expose the 100-day MA at 1.4045, and the lower limit of Bollinger band around 1.3890On the bright side, the immediate resistance level emerges at the October 12 high of 1.4287, en route to the April 1, 2025 high of 1.4415 and the March 3, 2025 high of 1.4542. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Technical Analysis: USD/CAD maintains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, USD/CAD sustains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price is also pressing just above the 20-day Bollinger upper band, indicating a strong upside extension, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 67 suggests firm positive momentum, though edging toward overbought territory.On the downside, immediate support level is seen at the former Bollinger upper band near 1.4240, followed by the October 7 low of 1.4205, and then the 20-day Bollinger middle band at 1.4065. A breach of this level could expose the 100-day MA at 1.4045, and the lower limit of Bollinger band around 1.3890On the bright side, the immediate resistance level emerges at the October 12 high of 1.4287, en route to the April 1, 2025 high of 1.4415 and the March 3, 2025 high of 1.4542. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
08:15 WTI declines below $85.00 on hopes for Ukraine peace talks, oversupply worries
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $84.75 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. WTI falls amid hopes for progress in peace talks over the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine, and growing US inventories.
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Technical Analysis: WTI retains a negative tone under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, WTI US Oil extends a corrective phase below its key moving average structure and the Bollinger Bands’ middle line, which keeps the near-term bias bearish. Price is capped by the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), while the Bollinger Bands’ lower band offers initial downside protection; meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) around 34 hovers in oversold territory, hinting at weakening downside momentum but not yet signaling a bullish reversal.On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at $86.80, ahead of the Bollinger Bands’ middle band near $94.95, with the upper band up at $107.45 marking a more distant barrier if a stronger rebound unfolds. On the downside, first support aligns with the Bollinger Bands’ lower band around $82.45, and a clear break beneath this level would reinforce the bearish tone and open the door to deeper losses in the coming sessions.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Technical Analysis: WTI retains a negative tone under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, WTI US Oil extends a corrective phase below its key moving average structure and the Bollinger Bands’ middle line, which keeps the near-term bias bearish. Price is capped by the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), while the Bollinger Bands’ lower band offers initial downside protection; meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) around 34 hovers in oversold territory, hinting at weakening downside momentum but not yet signaling a bullish reversal.On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA at $86.80, ahead of the Bollinger Bands’ middle band near $94.95, with the upper band up at $107.45 marking a more distant barrier if a stronger rebound unfolds. On the downside, first support aligns with the Bollinger Bands’ lower band around $82.45, and a clear break beneath this level would reinforce the bearish tone and open the door to deeper losses in the coming sessions.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
07:59 BoJ's Asada warns rate hikes could push down underlying inflation given consumption lacks momentum
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Toichiro Asada said on Thursday that the central bank must be mindful of risk rate hikes that could push down underlying inflation given consumption lacks momentum.
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Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Toichiro Asada said on Thursday that the central bank must be mindful of risk rate hikes that could push down underlying inflation given consumption lacks momentum.Key quotesMust be mindful of risk rate hikes could push down underlying inflation given consumption lacks momentum, when asked whether further rate hike such as in December would be premature.
Central bank independence is an important framework to achieve price stability, when asked if BoJ rate hikes could affect government’s economic policy.
Don’t have specific idea in mind on terminal rate. My view is that Japan’s nominal neutral rate is in the lower side of boj staff’s estimated range.
Terminal rate and neutral rate are very closely intertwined.
BoJ does not directly control FX, so won’t comment on what desirable level of dollar/yen could be. BoJ’s Asada flags cautious path for future rate hikes and limited FX focusBoJ’s Asada scores 4.2/10 on FXS Speechtracker, modestly above the historic 3.7/10 baseline, signaling a slightly more impactful but still cautious stance. The emphasis on being mindful that rate hikes could dampen underlying inflation amid weak consumption leans dovish, suggesting limited appetite for an early follow-up move, such as a December hike.Asada’s comments that Japan’s nominal neutral rate is on the lower side of BoJ staff estimates, and that the terminal and neutral rates are closely intertwined, reinforce a view that the eventual peak in rates will be relatively low. The refusal to discuss a desirable DOLLAR/YEN level and the stress on central bank independence underline that BoJ policy will stay focused on domestic price stability rather than FX targeting, which should temper expectations for aggressive tightening as a tool to support the YEN.Market reactionAt press time, the USD/JPY pair trades 0.09% lower at around 159.72. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
Central bank independence is an important framework to achieve price stability, when asked if BoJ rate hikes could affect government’s economic policy.
Don’t have specific idea in mind on terminal rate. My view is that Japan’s nominal neutral rate is in the lower side of boj staff’s estimated range.
Terminal rate and neutral rate are very closely intertwined.
BoJ does not directly control FX, so won’t comment on what desirable level of dollar/yen could be. BoJ’s Asada flags cautious path for future rate hikes and limited FX focusBoJ’s Asada scores 4.2/10 on FXS Speechtracker, modestly above the historic 3.7/10 baseline, signaling a slightly more impactful but still cautious stance. The emphasis on being mindful that rate hikes could dampen underlying inflation amid weak consumption leans dovish, suggesting limited appetite for an early follow-up move, such as a December hike.Asada’s comments that Japan’s nominal neutral rate is on the lower side of BoJ staff estimates, and that the terminal and neutral rates are closely intertwined, reinforce a view that the eventual peak in rates will be relatively low. The refusal to discuss a desirable DOLLAR/YEN level and the stress on central bank independence underline that BoJ policy will stay focused on domestic price stability rather than FX targeting, which should temper expectations for aggressive tightening as a tool to support the YEN.Market reactionAt press time, the USD/JPY pair trades 0.09% lower at around 159.72. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
07:57 Swiss Franc holds gains against US Dollar despite hawkish Fed outlook
USD/CHF inches lower after two days of gains, trading around 0.8330 during Asian hours on Thursday.
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The currency pair could regain ground as the US Dollar (USD) draws support from an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve policy outlook, driven by hotter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.Traders have ramped up bets on a December rate hike after Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated earlier this week that he would support a quarter-point increase, or even a half-point move if inflation worsens. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in an 87% probability of a December rate hike, alongside nearly a 13% chance of a larger 50-basis-point increase.Dollar support underpinned by Fed independence and enduring safe haven roleStrategists at Rabobank argue that the backdrop for the USD has improved as “diminished fears about political interference on the Fed is a supportive factor for the USD.” They add that the market reaction “at the start of the Gulf war,” where “strong demand for the USD undermined last year’s claims that the USD’s had lost at least part of its safe haven value,” reinforces the currency’s defensive credentials. In their view, the Dollar’s safe-haven status is structurally anchored, with its appeal “linked to its embedded position in global payments systems, which could take decades to shake.”Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 0% during its upcoming meeting. Although financial markets are pricing in a potential rate hike by early 2027, most economists anticipate the first increase will take place closer to late 2027.SNB Chairman Schlegel noted that price pressures remain contained and the central bank has met its medium-term price stability mandate, with declining oil prices further easing inflationary risks. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
07:48 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Enters fresh upside leg on consolidation breakout
The Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms its major currency peers on Thursday. Against the US Dollar (USD), the Asia-Pacific currency is marginally higher even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) hits a fresh 18-month high at 103.08 during the day.
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Against the US Dollar (USD), the Asia-Pacific currency is marginally higher even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) hits a fresh 18-month high at 103.08 during the day. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.07% 0.11% -0.10% 0.04% 0.22% 0.20% -0.07% EUR -0.07% 0.04% -0.16% -0.04% 0.15% 0.12% -0.14% GBP -0.11% -0.04% -0.19% -0.08% 0.11% 0.08% -0.18% JPY 0.10% 0.16% 0.19% 0.13% 0.31% 0.27% 0.02% CAD -0.04% 0.04% 0.08% -0.13% 0.18% 0.15% -0.10% AUD -0.22% -0.15% -0.11% -0.31% -0.18% -0.02% -0.29% NZD -0.20% -0.12% -0.08% -0.27% -0.15% 0.02% -0.23% CHF 0.07% 0.14% 0.18% -0.02% 0.10% 0.29% 0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
As of writing, the USD/JPY pair edges down to near 159.65, but is close to its over two-month high of 159.94 posted on Wednesday.The Japanese currency strengthens as hotter-than-projected Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October is expected to strengthen hopes of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the near term.Month-on-Month headline PPI grew by 0.7%, faster than 0.3% estimates. Inflation at the producer level was declined by 0.2% in September. On an annualized basis, the PPI unexpectedly grew at a faster pace of 7.1% against the prior release of 6.8%. The data was expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 6.5%.Meanwhile, the US Dollar outperforms amid fears of an aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary tightening going forward.Analysts at Rabobank highlight that the market’s response to the latest hawkish commentary from Fed officials, “including those from Waller that put the risk of a 50-bps rate hike on the table,” speaks to more than just a shift in rate expectations. They note that the market is now “fully priced for a December rate hike,” and, crucially, that these remarks were met “with no real speculation that the Fed would be pressured by political forces not to raise rates.”Rabobank points out that “since Fed Chair Warsh surprised the market with a hawkish position at Jackson Hole in August, fears about diminished Fed credibility have dissipated.” In their view, “the results of last week’s mid-term elections suggest less reason to expect pressure from the White House,” reinforcing the perception that the central bank can proceed with policy tightening without significant political interference.“In short,” Rabobank concludes, “markets have inferred that last week’s mid-term election result suggests that the issue of Fed credibility is likely to be diminished over the remainder of Trump’s term.” They argue that this development “should remove a significant potential hurdle from the outlook for the USD.”USD/JPY Technical AnalysisIn the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.69, keeping a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 158.34. The pair is extending its advance from last week’s pullback and the EMA clustered below price suggests underlying demand remains firm. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.66 stays in positive territory but shy of overbought, hinting that upside momentum is constructive without yet appearing stretched.On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA at 158.34, where buyers are likely to defend the recent breakout area on a corrective dip. As long as USD/JPY holds above this moving average, the technical tone would favor further gains, while a daily close below it would signal fading bullish control and open room for a deeper retracement.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Economic Indicator Producer Price Index (MoM) The Producer Price Index released by the Bank of Japan is a measure of prices for goods purchased by domestic corporates in Japan. The PPI is correlated with the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and is a way to measure changes in manufacturing cost and inflation in Japan. A high reading is seen as anticipatory of a rate hike and is positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish). Read more. Last release: Wed Nov 11, 2026 23:50 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 0.7% Consensus: 0.3% Previous: -0.3% Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan
07:45 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable below 1.3300 amid bullish USD, ahead of UK GDP
The GBP/USD pair drifts lower for the third straight day – also marking the fifth day of a negative move in the previous six – and drops to a fresh four-week low during the Asian session on Thursday.
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Spot prices currently trade just above mid-1.3200s and seem vulnerable amid the prevailing bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD).Following the release of hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation figures on Tuesday, hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials reaffirmed market bets for an imminent rate hike. Moreover, traders have started pricing in the possibility of a jumbo 50-basis-point (bps) rate increase at the next FOMC meeting in December. This, along with Middle East uncertainties, lifts the USD to its highest level since April 2025 and turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure on the GBP/USD pair.However, the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish stance could offer some support to the British Pound (GBP) and help limit further losses. Traders also seem hesitant and opt to wait for the UK macro data dump, including the monthly and quarterly GDP reports, before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.From a technical perspective, the overnight sustained break below the 1.3300 mark and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the upswing from October lows was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, spot prices hold beneath the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, at 1.3381, validating the negative outlook. This, along with the recent failed attempt to find acceptance above the 1.3500 mark, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair remains to the downside.Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in oversold territory near 26, hinting at stretched downside conditions but not yet showing a decisive recovery signal. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with a negative reading and a subdued profile. This, in turn, backs the case for further losses towards the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at 1.3216, ahead of the next relevant support and the structural floor defined by the recent cycle low near 1.3138.On the topside, any corrective bounce would first confront resistance at the 61.8% retracement at 1.3278, followed by the 50% level at 1.3321 and the 38.2% retracement at 1.3364. Further up, the 100-period SMA at 1.3381 and the 23.6% retracement at 1.3417 reinforce a broader cap, while the GBP/USD pair remains below this cluster.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)GBP/USD 4-hour chart Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Nov 12, 2026 07:00 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 0.7% Previous: 0.5% Source: Office for National Statistics
07:28 Indian Rupee outperforms amid strong foreign inflows, shrugging off surging US Dollar
The Indian Rupee (INR) rises further against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, posting a fresh six-month low. The USD/INR pair falls to near 93.65 as the Indian currency outperforms on the back of strong inflows of overseas investment into the Indian stock market.
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The USD/INR pair falls to near 93.65 as the Indian currency outperforms on the back of strong inflows of overseas investment into the Indian stock market.Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to increase their investment in the Indian equity market as fresh headwinds in the global Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks and falling energy prices have underpinned “India” as a competitive bet.So far in November, FIIs have remained net buyers on all trading days, except Diwali Muhurat session, that fell on Sunday, November 08. Foreign investors have made a cumulative investment of Rs. 65,735.57 crore.What are the fresh headwinds in global AI sector?Concerns about the continuation of spending on AI infrastructure, following the victory of Democrats in the United States (US) midterm elections, pushed AI-related stocks into turmoil.And now fears of replacement of Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang after reports from New York Times (NYT) of his extramarital affair with alleged Chinese spy Alice Huang and rumours of a relationship with his subordinate Kimberly Powell, Nvidia's vice president of health care, could put AI stocks under pressure.The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has reported that Nvidia's board was preparing to oust the CEO, adding that the next 48 hours as potentially volatile.Lower oil prices – a tailwind for net energy importersFalling oil prices due to hopes that the US and Iran would prefer a deal rather than renewing military attacks have improved the appeal of currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.As of writing, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on November 19 is down 2.42%, slightly below Rs. 8,000.Investors ignore US Dollar’s outperformanceThe Indian currency continues to outperform the US Dollar even as the latter has surged significantly in the past few trading days. In the Asian trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh 18-month high at around 103.06.The US Dollar strengthens as financial markets take the possibility of a bigger interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the December policy meeting into consideration.According to TD Securities, the “strong upside surprise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data makes a December hike all but certain,” with the bank reiterating that the data “certainly seals a Dec rate hike by the Fed.” Strategists note that “after Waller's speech on Tuesday, the debate has now shifted to whether the FOMC will go 25 or 50bps,” as Governor Waller’s pre-CPI remarks have sharpened the focus on the need for a potential “catch-up” move. TD Securities writes that the discussion will now centre on whether the Fed should implement a “catch-up 50bps rate hike in December, or whether to maintain course with a 25bps rate increase and provide strong guidance toward a potential January follow-through.” For now, they emphasize that “we still favor a 25bp hike with a rising risk of another hike in January.”USD/INR Technical AnalysisIn the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 93.69, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 94.58. The pair’s slide under this short-term trend benchmark suggests sellers remain in control, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 24 signals oversold conditions that could slow the downside without yet implying a confirmed reversal.On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the 20-day EMA at 94.5812, which caps recovery attempts and defines the first hurdle for any meaningful rebound. Looking down, the pair could extend its decline to near 93.00(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
07:13 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Declines below 1.1100, negative outlook remains intact under 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair declines to near 1.1080 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. A cautious stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) weigh on the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD).
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD weakens to around 1.1080 in Thursday’s early European session.The pair maintains a negative tone below the 100-day SMA, with bearish RSI momentum.The first upside barrier emerges in the 1.1090-1.1100 region; the initial support level is seen at 1.1000.The EUR/USD pair declines to near 1.1080 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. A cautious stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) weigh on the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD). ECB policymaker Philip Lane said that energy prices may be falling, but the central bank’s interest rate decisions will depend on how strongly the recent surge in fuel costs spreads to wages and other prices.On the other hand, bets on a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in December started to grow after a hotter-than-expected US inflation report and comments by Fed governor Christopher Waller. Waller said that he would support a quarter-point rate increase in December and might push for a half-point move if inflation data is worse than expected.Traders await the US October Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Friday for more clues about the interest rate path. The headline PPI is expected to show a rise of 6.6% YoY in October, while the core PPI is projected to show an increase of 5.0% YoY during the same report period.Euro outlook softens as ECB caution contrasts with Fed tighteningStrategists at Rabobank note that “the Fed is not the only G10 central bank widely expected to hike rates in December,” with the ECB “among those banks also likely to tighten policy.” However, they caution that “the ECB, however, could prove to be reluctant to hike rates beyond December,” pointing to signals from “the last ECB press conference” which “suggested that the GC were becoming increasingly concerns about the growth outlook.” In Rabobank’s house view, “market pricing for 2027 ECB rate rises remains too aggressive,” and they add that “another factor that could weigh on the EUR in the coming months are uncertainties about what a far-right president in France could mean for EU cooperation going forward.” Against this backdrop, Rabobank “forecast a move to EUR/USD1.10 on a 3-month view.”Lane stresses consensus and delayed inflation response, modestly supportive for the EuroLane’s speech score of 6.2/10 matches the historic average on FXS Speechtracker, signaling a neutral overall impact but with a slight hawkish tilt. Emphasis on a “high premium on consensus” and a “high bar on directional forward guidance” suggests the ECB is reluctant to pre-commit on the policy path, yet wants flexibility via instruments for “multiple equilibriums” in the bond market, which can underpin Euro stability.Lane’s focus on underlying inflation as a guide to one-year-ahead inflation, and the expectation of second-round effects, points to concern that price pressures may prove persistent even as energy prices reverse. The notion that headline inflation could fall while underlying inflation rises reinforces a cautious stance on easing, modestly supportive for the Euro as markets may price a slower and more conditional path to rate cuts.
Technical Analysis: Bearish outlook of EUR/USD remains intact below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/USD extends its slide beneath all visible moving average and volatility benchmarks to keep a clear bearish bias in place. The 100-day simple moving average (SMA) stays well above spot, reinforcing a medium-term capped structure, while price also trades under the Bollinger Bands (20, 2) lower band, hinting at persistent selling pressure around the recent lows. The Relative Strength Index (14) has recovered to 36 but remains below the neutral 50 line, suggesting only modest relief in momentum within an overall weak environment.On the topside, initial resistance level emerges in the 1.1090-1.1100 zone, representing the lower limit of Bollinger band and the psychological level. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to the middle band at 1.1180, en route to the upper boundary of Bollinger band at 1.1275 and the 100-day SMA at 1.1405. On the downside, the 1.1000 round figure act as a key support level for the major pair. Sustained traing below the mentioned level could expose the May 12, 2025 low of 1.0951, followed by the May 27, 2025 low of 1.0733. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Technical Analysis: Bearish outlook of EUR/USD remains intact below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/USD extends its slide beneath all visible moving average and volatility benchmarks to keep a clear bearish bias in place. The 100-day simple moving average (SMA) stays well above spot, reinforcing a medium-term capped structure, while price also trades under the Bollinger Bands (20, 2) lower band, hinting at persistent selling pressure around the recent lows. The Relative Strength Index (14) has recovered to 36 but remains below the neutral 50 line, suggesting only modest relief in momentum within an overall weak environment.On the topside, initial resistance level emerges in the 1.1090-1.1100 zone, representing the lower limit of Bollinger band and the psychological level. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to the middle band at 1.1180, en route to the upper boundary of Bollinger band at 1.1275 and the 100-day SMA at 1.1405. On the downside, the 1.1000 round figure act as a key support level for the major pair. Sustained traing below the mentioned level could expose the May 12, 2025 low of 1.0951, followed by the May 27, 2025 low of 1.0733. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
06:59 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD flirts with trading range support, holds above $51.00
Silver (XAG/USD) edges lower following the previous day's two-way price swings, retesting the weekly trough around the $51.20-$51.15 area, during the Asian session on Thursday.
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The white metal, however, lacks follow-through selling and currently trades around mid-$51.00s, down less than 0.50% for the day.From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD remains under clear bearish pressure following the recent repeated failures to make it through the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The said barrier at $53.17 coincides with the top boundary of a one-week-old range and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index near 44 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator in negative territory hint at subdued bullish momentum rather than an immediate reversal. Hence, some follow-through selling below the trading range support near the $51.00 mark is needed to back the case for any further depreciating move.The XAG/USD might then fall to levels below the $50.00 psychological mark en route to the next relevant support near the $49.00 round figure and a one-year low, around the $48.65-$48.60 region, touched last Tuesday. On the top side, the $53.15-$53.20 area forms the first significant hurdle that bulls would need to reclaim to ease the current bearish bias.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)XAG/USD 4-hour chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
06:44 Gold struggles below $4,000 as Fed hike bets and Mideast risks lift USD to fresh YTD top
Gold (XAU/USD) remains under some selling pressure for the third straight day, trading below the $4,000 psychological mark during the Asian session, near its lowest level in more than one week, touched earlier this Thursday.
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The US Dollar (USD) extends the hot US consumer inflation data-inspired rally amid firming Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations and Middle East uncertainties. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting pressure on the commodity.The October US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released earlier this week, underpinned prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed. Moreover, hawkish comments from several influential FOMC members reaffirmed market bets that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again in December. Adding to this, traders have also started pricing in the possibility of a jumbo 50-basis-point (bps) rate hike next month. The outlook pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond back above the 5% threshold on Wednesday and continues to act as a tailwind for the Greenback.Fed hawks firm up December hike expectations as political-pressure fears fadeAnalysts at Rabobank highlight that the market’s response to the latest hawkish signals from Fed officials, “including those from Waller that put the risk of a 50-bps rate hike on the table,” goes beyond the immediate repricing of the policy path. They note that the market is now “fully priced for a December rate hike,” and, crucially, that these comments were “met with no real speculation that the Fed would be pressured by political forces not to raise rates.”Rabobank adds that “since Fed Chair Warsh surprised the market with a hawkish position at Jackson Hole in August, fears about diminished Fed credibility have dissipated.” In their view, “the results of last week’s midterm elections suggest less reason to expect pressure from the White House,” reinforcing the perception that the Fed can proceed with its tightening plans without significant political interference.Meanwhile, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides striking islands in the waterway in recent days. In fact, US forces reportedly carried out a series of strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, while Tehran attacked ship navigation systems on the Omani island of Didamar, located at the entrance of the Persian Gulf. Moreover, Iranian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Kioumars Heidari said that Tehran has closed the strategic waterway and will not open it except by the order of the leader of the revolution.The aforementioned factors lift the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to its highest level since April 2025 and back the case for additional gains. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the downside and any attempted recovery is more likely to be sold into. Traders now look to the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US and speeches from Fed officials. Apart from this, incoming geopolitical headlines might infuse volatility, providing some impetus to the buck and the XAU/USD pair.XAU/USD 1-hour chartTechnical AnalysisThe precious metal maintains a bearish near-term tone following the previous day's rejection near the 100-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,044. A subsequent fall below the 50.0% retracement and acceptance below the $4,000 psychological mark validate the negative bias. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has just turned marginally positive. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 31 and only recovering slightly from the oversold territory. Momentum indicators merely hint at stabilization rather than a decisive upside reversal, while gold remains capped by clustered resistance overhead.In the meantime, immediate support is seen at the 61.8% retracement at $3,976, ahead of deeper Fibonacci floors at $3,930 (78.6%) and $3,870 (100%), where buyers could attempt to defend the broader uptrend if the current pullback extends. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement at $4,009, followed by a dense barrier around the 38.2% retracement at $4,041 aligned with the 100-period EMA at $4,044. A sustained strength above the latter would open the way toward the 23.6% retracement at $4,082 and the cycle high anchor near $4,147.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
06:37 Indonesian Rupiah hits record lows on MSCI index concerns, political uncertainty
USD/IDR rises after opening at a bullish gap, trading around 18,260 during Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair climbed to a fresh record high of 18,272 amid renewed concerns over Indonesia’s emerging-market status.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/IDR reached an all-time high of 18,272 amid fears over Indonesia’s emerging-market status.Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka’s resignation has heightened political uncertainty and risked splitting the ruling coalition.The US Dollar gains support from a hawkish Federal Reserve policy outlook following hotter-than-expected US inflation data.USD/IDR rises after opening at a bullish gap, trading around 18,260 during Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair climbed to a fresh record high of 18,272 amid renewed concerns over Indonesia’s emerging-market status. The latest drop followed MSCI’s decision to remove a local firm from its indexes, a fresh setback after the index provider warned last month that persistent investability issues could lead to the country being reclassified as a standalone market.Meanwhile, political uncertainty has intensified after Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka resigned. His departure raises the risk of a split within the ruling coalition of Southeast Asia’s largest economy, which could complicate policymaking for an administration already facing scrutiny over broader economic management and flagship initiatives like its free school meals programme.Additionally, the USD/IDR pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook, following hotter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.Traders have ramped up bets on a December rate hike, especially after Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted earlier this week that he would back a quarter-point increase, or even a half-point move if inflation worsens. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in around an 87% probability of a December rate hike, alongside a nearly 13% chance of a larger 50 basis point increase.Technical Analysis: USD/IDR reaches near overbought territoryIn the daily chart, USD/IDR trades at 18,260, extending its advance above both the short-term and medium-term trend markers. The nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) sit below price, suggesting a well-supported uptrend after the latest breakout. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.99 hovers near overbought territory, hinting at strong bullish momentum but also raising the risk of a short-term pause rather than an immediate reversal.On the downside, initial support sits at the nine-period EMA near 18,147.87, with a deeper protective layer at the 50-period EMA around 18,010.74 if corrective pressure emerges. As long as USD/IDR holds above these moving average supports, the near-term bias remains constructive, and any dips toward the EMA cluster are likely to attract fresh buying interest.USD/IDR: Daily ChartGoolsbee flags troubling inflation persistence, reinforcing hawkish Fed toneFed’s Goolsbee delivered a notably more hawkish message, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8/10 compared to the established baseline of 6.8/10, underscoring rising concern about inflation dynamics. By calling the latest CPI “borderline disturbing” and highlighting that services inflation is “not coming down,” the speech framed inflation as a “real issue” driven by both cost and demand sides, with a clear warning about overheating prices and the risk of expectations becoming unanchored. The insistence that “everything is always on the table” and that inflation must be brought back to target reinforces the likelihood of a policy stance biased toward tighter conditions, even as the job market is described as steady and stable.The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.69 points to 145.61, firmly in hawkish territory and consistent with the elevated FXS Speechtracker reading. This move signals that, within FXS Fed Sentiment Index metrics, Goolsbee’s remarks materially strengthened the perceived hawkish tilt of the Federal Reserve’s policy narrative.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Indonesian Rupiah FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indonesian Rupiah? The Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) is sensitive to a dynamic mix of global market conditions, domestic economic fundamentals, commodity price shifts, and proactive central bank interventions. As an emerging market currency, the Rupiah’s trajectory depends heavily on both domestic resilience and international economic momentum. How do decisions of the Bank Indonesia impact the Indonesian Rupiah? Bank Indonesia (BI) plays a central role in stabilizing the Rupiah through strategic monetary policy and direct market operations. By adjusting benchmark interest rates, the central bank manages yield differentials against major global central banks like the US Federal Reserve to attract and retain foreign portfolio investments. BI also utilizes a "triple-intervention" framework—operating across spot, derivative (DNDF), and government bond markets- to smooth out currency volatility, complemented by monetary instruments like Sekuritas Rupiah Bank Indonesia (SRBI) to bolster capital inflows. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indonesian Rupiah? From a broader macroeconomic perspective, domestic inflation rates, trade performance, and overall fiscal health dictate the IDR's underlying strength. Indonesia's trade and current account balances are closely tied to these fundamentals, while broader global factors, such as risk-on or risk-off sentiment among international investors and global liquidity trends, directly affect exchange rate movements. How do global commodity prices impact the Indonesian Rupiah? As a major exporter of commodities such as palm oil, coal, nickel, and natural gas, Indonesia benefits from higher global commodity prices, which generate trade surpluses, increase foreign currency inflows, and strengthen the Rupiah. However, because Indonesia is also a net importer of crude oil, elevated global oil prices increase the foreign exchange burden, widening the current account deficit and weighing on the currency's value.
06:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.The price for Gold stood at 11,970.11 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,002.76 it cost on Wednesday.The price for Gold decreased to INR 139,616.50 per tola from INR 139,997.80 per tola a day earlier.Unit measureGold Price in INR1 Gram11,970.1110 Grams119,701.00Tola139,616.50Troy Ounce372,310.00FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
06:22 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Weakens below 109.50, bearish outlook prevails under the 100-day SMA
The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 109.30 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Traders remain on high alert for currency intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY).
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Traders remain on high alert for currency intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY).Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said on Thursday that recent currency moves have been excessively rapid. “It’s too early to forget what happened this summer,” said Mimura, while refraining from commenting on specific exchange-rate levels.Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Toichiro Asada said that the central bank must be mindful of the expected effect of past rate increases on economy. Asada added that underlying inflation fluctuates around levels consistent with BoJ's price target. Dovish comments from Asada might cap the upside for the JPY and act as a tailwind for the cross.Japan household demand for JGBs grows as BoJ credibility supports medium-term Yen upsideAnalysts at MUFG highlight that official data are now confirming a meaningful shift in domestic demand for Japanese government bonds. They note that “the data confirming this pick-up in JGB buying by Japanese households comes from the MoF,” which “has an entire portion of its website dedicated to JGBs for individuals,” where issuance figures “show a marked pick-up in issuance to individuals with the November total for 3, 5 and 10-year totalling JPY 2,026bn, the largest single-month total.”According to MUFG, policy speculation is adding to this emerging trend, with “growing speculation that the government will soon make changes to incentivise JGB buying by including individual JGB holdings in tax-free NISA accounts and/or removing these holdings from inheritance tax.” They describe these developments as “early signs of a shift in flows perhaps,” arguing that “the more examples of this we start to see the more compelling the case will become of a more sustained turnaround in the multi-year trend of yen weakness.” With “intervention likely halting the prospects to the upside, and confidence in the BoJ improving,” MUFG concludes that “the risks certainly look more skewed to yen strength over the medium term.”BoJ’s Asada flags neutral rates but warns against aggressive tighteningBoJ’s Asada speech scores 3.2/10 on FXS Speechtracker, exactly in line with the speaker’s historic average, signaling no meaningful shift in tone. Emphasis on accommodative financial conditions, neutral policy rates, and the risk that further hikes could harm the economy and dampen core inflation points to a mildly dovish bias for the Yen despite acknowledgement that underlying inflation is around target.Asada highlights that current price increases are not clearly demand-driven amid weak growth and consumption, and stresses that any future rate hikes must be cautious and gradual. The focus on using actual consumer inflation data to gauge overshoot risks, alongside concern that past and future hikes could curb inflation by slowing growth, reinforces a preference for a slow normalization path that limits upside for the Yen in the near term.
Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY retains a negative tone below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, AUD/JPY keeps a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price is also well below the Bollinger upper band, underscoring a market that remains capped by medium-term trend resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.97 stays in neutral-to-soft territory and hints at only modest downside momentum rather than outright exhaustion.On the topside, initial resistance level appears at the Bollinger middle band near 110.25. A decisive break above this level could pave the way to the key upside barrier in the 110.70-110.75 zone, representing the 100-day SMA and the upper boundary of Bollinger band. The next hurdle to watch is the August 18 high of 113.61.On the downside, the next meaningful support level is the lower limit of Bollinger band around 108.65, where sellers may start to hesitate if the pair extends its decline. The next contention level is located at the November 6 low of 108.24, followed by the February 13 low of 107.70.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY retains a negative tone below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, AUD/JPY keeps a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price is also well below the Bollinger upper band, underscoring a market that remains capped by medium-term trend resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.97 stays in neutral-to-soft territory and hints at only modest downside momentum rather than outright exhaustion.On the topside, initial resistance level appears at the Bollinger middle band near 110.25. A decisive break above this level could pave the way to the key upside barrier in the 110.70-110.75 zone, representing the 100-day SMA and the upper boundary of Bollinger band. The next hurdle to watch is the August 18 high of 113.61.On the downside, the next meaningful support level is the lower limit of Bollinger band around 108.65, where sellers may start to hesitate if the pair extends its decline. The next contention level is located at the November 6 low of 108.24, followed by the February 13 low of 107.70.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
05:51 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Slips below 177.00 near nine-day EMA
EUR/JPY extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 176.90 during Asian hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the currency cross is remaining within a descending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bearish bias.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/JPY may find initial support at the 12-month low of 175.07.The 14-day Relative Strength Index around 46 suggests neutral-to-soft momentum.The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 177.03.EUR/JPY extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 176.90 during Asian hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the currency cross is remaining within a descending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bearish bias.The EUR/JPY cross is keeping a capped near-term tone as it holds beneath both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of shorter and longer EMAs above price hints at persistent downside risk, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 suggests neutral-to-soft momentum rather than an oversold condition, leaving room for further corrective pressure.The EUR/JPY cross may fall toward the 12-month low of 175.07, reached on October 30, followed by the lower boundary of its descending channel around 173.60. A break below the channel would open the door for the currency cross to navigate the region around the 15-month low at 169.72.On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may rebound and test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 177.03, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel around 178.20 and the 50-day EMA of 178.37. A successful break above the medium-term price average would cause a bullish reversal, supporting the EUR/JPY cross to explore the area around the all-time high of 187.95, reached on April 17.EUR/JPY: Daily ChartAnalysts at MUFG highlight that improving domestic demand is becoming an increasingly important pillar of the Japan Government Bond market. Citing Ministry of Finance data, they note that “the data confirming this pick-up in JGB buying by Japanese households comes from the MoF,” which maintains a dedicated section on its website for individual JGBs. Issuance figures there “show a marked pick-up in issuance to individuals with the November total for 3-, 5-, and 10-year totalling JPY 2,026bn, the largest single-month total,” underscoring the scale of the recent shift in household participation.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.13% 0.14% -0.10% 0.06% 0.02% 0.05% 0.00% EUR -0.13% 0.01% -0.21% -0.05% -0.11% -0.09% -0.13% GBP -0.14% -0.01% -0.21% -0.10% -0.13% -0.09% -0.14% JPY 0.10% 0.21% 0.21% 0.13% 0.10% 0.11% 0.09% CAD -0.06% 0.05% 0.10% -0.13% -0.02% -0.01% -0.04% AUD -0.02% 0.11% 0.13% -0.10% 0.02% 0.03% -0.02% NZD -0.05% 0.09% 0.09% -0.11% 0.00% -0.03% -0.01% CHF -0.01% 0.13% 0.14% -0.09% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
05:19 New Zealand Dollar faces pressure against US Dollar as traders consider bigger Fed rate hike
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, holding onto its two day’s losses at around 0.5560 in the Asian trade.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD clings to losses near 0.5560 as the US Dollar outperforms.The US Dollar Index hits a fresh 18month high near 103.06.Traders also take the option of Fed’s bigger interest rate hike in December into consideration.The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, holding onto its two day’s losses at around 0.5560 in the Asian trade.The Kiwi pair trades vulnerably as the US Dollar continues its outperformance, with financial markets started pricing the possibility of a bigger interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the December policy meeting.At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.18% higher at around 103.06, the highest level seen in over 18 months.Fed hike debate intensifies as Waller comments revive 50bp riskAnalysts at MUFG note that the latest market rethink has been “to consider the prospect of a 50bp hike,” stressing that this shift is “only now being considered because of Waller’s comments prior to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report rather than the CPI report itself.” They highlight that “Waller’s comment that a stronger CPI print may warrant a 50bp hike has sparked a debate over whether Waller had knowledge of the CPI print,” helping to push front-end yields higher and reprice Fed expectations.Fed’s Waller delivered a notably more hawkish tone on Tuesday, with a 9/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing well above the 7.3/10 historical average, underscoring a clear shift toward tighter policy bias. The conditional endorsement of a half-point December rate hike if October core CPI prints at 0.3% or higher, alongside support for a quarter-point hike even on better inflation data, signals a strong reaction function to any sign that inflation is drifting away from target. Emphasis on the breadth of price increases, insufficient restrictiveness of current policy, and the need for higher real rates reinforces upside risks for U.S. yields and supports the Dollar, while Waller’s downbeat view on near-term AI-driven productivity gains suggests limited relief from supply-side disinflation.The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 3.17 points to 145.50, firmly in hawkish territory and consistent with the elevated FXS Speechtracker reading. This move confirms that Fed communication is skewing more aggressively toward further tightening, a backdrop that should keep Dollar supported and weigh on risk-sensitive currencies as markets reprice December hike probabilities.Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate hike in the December meeting are just 10%.On the Kiwi front, the major driver would be market expectations for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy meeting in December. The RBNZ will likely raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3% after leaving them steady in the October meeting, as it signaled that “tighter monetary policy probably needed” amid upside inflation risks.NZD/USD Technical AnalysisIn the daily chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5559, extending its decline below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.5618 and maintaining a bearish near-term bias. The pair trades under this short-term trend proxy, suggesting rallies remain capped, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 39 points to weak but not extreme selling pressure after the latest slide.On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at 0.5618, which is the first hurdle for any corrective rebound. A sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish tone, while failure to reclaim it keeps NZD/USD vulnerable to fresh lows, with support likely to emerge only at lower prior price floors not captured by the present indicator set.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
05:00 UK GDP is set to show that the economy continued growing in Q3
The highlight of the United Kingdom’s (UK) economic calendar this week will be the preliminary estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which the Office for National Statistics will release on Thursday.
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Monthly GDP data from August beat expectations last month, with the economy growing 0.1%, against market expectations of a 0.1% decline, thanks to the strong performance of the manufacturing sector. Factory output grew 0.8% in August, largely offsetting the flat performance of the services sector and a 0.2% decline in construction output.Beyond that, UK Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures revealed that business activity continued growing in October, while unemployment declined to its lowest rate since July last year. All in all, a fairly healthy macroeconomic picture, which has prompted the International Monetary Fund to raise the UK's growth projections for 2026 to 1.3% from the previous 1%.On the political front, a neutral UK budget has contributed to the economic bonanza, calming fears about the hefty public debt, at least for now, and providing support to the British Pound. Lower charges on food and energy bills are expected to be paid for by higher taxes on banks and gambling companies. The feared bond markets have not shown any significant objection to these plans.All this acknowledged, the third quarter’s GDP report will be analysed with particular attention after last week’s Bank of England rate hike. Economic growth is not a specific target of the BoE’s mandate, but a healthy GDP will doubtless make the central bank’s rate-setting work much easier, considering the stubbornly high consumer inflation data.
Last week, the BoE tightened its monetary policy for the first time in three years. Some policymakers, including Governor Bailey, suggested the bank might need to hike rates further to bring inflation to target. BoE’s Deputy Governor, Clare Lombardelli, went further on Tuesday, affirming that she “would not rule out rate hike possibility in December”. Against this backdrop, a strong GDP reading on Thursday would endorse those views and might spur speculative demand for the Pound.When will the UK release Q2 Gross Domestic Product, and how could it affect GBP/USD?As noted, the UK will release the preliminary Q2 GDP estimate on Thursday at 07:00 GMT. Data is expected to show moderate economic growth in the three months to June, with the GBP/USD risk skewed to the upside, as a stronger-than-expected reading will boost odds of another BoE rate hike, most likely in February.The GBP/USD pair trades around 1.3320 at the time of writing, following a sharp reversal on Tuesday, as strong US inflation data and hawkish comments by Fed speakers boosted the US Dollar across the board. Bears have pushed price action below the bottom of the ascending channel from October, and momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart have turned bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (14) approaching oversold levels and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram showing widening red bars.
According to Guillermo Alcalá, FX Analyst at FXStreet, “Recent GBP/USD price action suggests that the corrective recovery from mid-October lows might have come to an end, and that the pair is ready to resume the broader bearish trend.”“While below the channel bottom and the November 6 low, near 1.3340, bears are likely to be tempted to revisit the late October lows near 1.3270, with their gaze on the key resistance area near 1.3130,” says Alcalá.On the upside, Alcalá argues that “The pair would need to return above the broken trendline support, now around 1.3380, to ease bearish pressure, and shift the focus back towards the November 10 high near 1.3460 and the November peak, in the 1.3500 area.” Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Nov 12, 2026 07:00 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 0.7% Previous: 0.5% Source: Office for National Statistics BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound? The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling? When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound? In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
Monthly GDP data from August beat expectations last month, with the economy growing 0.1%, against market expectations of a 0.1% decline, thanks to the strong performance of the manufacturing sector. Factory output grew 0.8% in August, largely offsetting the flat performance of the services sector and a 0.2% decline in construction output.Beyond that, UK Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures revealed that business activity continued growing in October, while unemployment declined to its lowest rate since July last year. All in all, a fairly healthy macroeconomic picture, which has prompted the International Monetary Fund to raise the UK's growth projections for 2026 to 1.3% from the previous 1%.On the political front, a neutral UK budget has contributed to the economic bonanza, calming fears about the hefty public debt, at least for now, and providing support to the British Pound. Lower charges on food and energy bills are expected to be paid for by higher taxes on banks and gambling companies. The feared bond markets have not shown any significant objection to these plans.All this acknowledged, the third quarter’s GDP report will be analysed with particular attention after last week’s Bank of England rate hike. Economic growth is not a specific target of the BoE’s mandate, but a healthy GDP will doubtless make the central bank’s rate-setting work much easier, considering the stubbornly high consumer inflation data.
Last week, the BoE tightened its monetary policy for the first time in three years. Some policymakers, including Governor Bailey, suggested the bank might need to hike rates further to bring inflation to target. BoE’s Deputy Governor, Clare Lombardelli, went further on Tuesday, affirming that she “would not rule out rate hike possibility in December”. Against this backdrop, a strong GDP reading on Thursday would endorse those views and might spur speculative demand for the Pound.When will the UK release Q2 Gross Domestic Product, and how could it affect GBP/USD?As noted, the UK will release the preliminary Q2 GDP estimate on Thursday at 07:00 GMT. Data is expected to show moderate economic growth in the three months to June, with the GBP/USD risk skewed to the upside, as a stronger-than-expected reading will boost odds of another BoE rate hike, most likely in February.The GBP/USD pair trades around 1.3320 at the time of writing, following a sharp reversal on Tuesday, as strong US inflation data and hawkish comments by Fed speakers boosted the US Dollar across the board. Bears have pushed price action below the bottom of the ascending channel from October, and momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart have turned bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (14) approaching oversold levels and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram showing widening red bars.
According to Guillermo Alcalá, FX Analyst at FXStreet, “Recent GBP/USD price action suggests that the corrective recovery from mid-October lows might have come to an end, and that the pair is ready to resume the broader bearish trend.”“While below the channel bottom and the November 6 low, near 1.3340, bears are likely to be tempted to revisit the late October lows near 1.3270, with their gaze on the key resistance area near 1.3130,” says Alcalá.On the upside, Alcalá argues that “The pair would need to return above the broken trendline support, now around 1.3380, to ease bearish pressure, and shift the focus back towards the November 10 high near 1.3460 and the November peak, in the 1.3500 area.” Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Nov 12, 2026 07:00 (Prel) Frequency: Quarterly Consensus: 0.7% Previous: 0.5% Source: Office for National Statistics BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound? The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling? When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound? In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
04:52 Australian Dollar declines to near 10-month lows
AUD/USD loses ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.6840 during Asian hours on Thursday. The pair falls to nearly 10-month lows as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook.
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The pair falls to nearly 10-month lows as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook.Following hotter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, traders have ramped up bets on a December rate hike, especially after Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted earlier this week that he would back a quarter-point increase, or even a half-point move if inflation worsens. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in around 87% probability of a December rate hike, alongside a nearly 13% chance of a larger 50 basis point increase.Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations held steady at 5.3% in November, matching the previous month's reading and remaining at their highest level since June. These elevated expectations follow September's headline inflation data, which accelerated to a six-month high of 4.3% and remains well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2–3% target range.Despite persistent price pressures, the Australian Dollar (AUD) faces headwinds amid growing market speculation that the RBA has reached the end of its tightening cycle and will hold interest rates steady for the foreseeable future. Looking further ahead, Prime Terminal data indicates that markets are pricing in roughly 28 basis points of RBA rate cuts in 2027.Bond yield surge weighs on leveraged housing markets in AustraliaStrategists at Societe Generale warn that the latest upswing in global bond yields is beginning to bite in interest‑sensitive sectors, noting that “the rise in bond yields, however, is feeding through to leveraged housing markets, and Australia is certainly one of them.” This reinforces concerns that Australia’s highly indebted households and housing market are particularly exposed as funding costs move higher. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:51 US Dollar Index (DXY) rises above 103.00, highest since April 2025 on Fed bets, Iran risks
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, hits a fresh high since April 2025 during the Asian session on Thursday, with bulls looking to build on the momentum beyond the 103.00 mark.
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Moreover, traders have also started pricing in the possibility of a jumbo 50-basis-point (bps) Fed rate hike in December, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond back above the 5% threshold on Wednesday. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor supporting the DXY.Waller’s hawkish tilt boosts Fed tightening expectations and supports the DollarFed’s Waller delivered a notably more hawkish message, with a 9/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing well above the 7.3/10 historical average, underscoring a clear bias toward further tightening. The conditional openness to a half-point rate hike in December if core CPI prints 0.3% or higher, alongside support for at least a quarter-point move even on better data, signals a strong reaction function to persistent inflation and broad-based price pressures. Emphasis that policy has not been as restrictive as previously thought, and that real rates must rise to maintain tightness, reinforces upside risks for US yields and the Dollar.The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 3.17 points to 145.50, deepening hawkish positioning well above the neutral 100 threshold and aligning with the elevated FXS Speechtracker score. This combination of a stronger hawkish index reading and an above-baseline speech tone suggests markets should price in a higher probability of additional Fed rate hikes, with potential support for the Dollar against the Euro and Yen.Meanwhile, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and fresh US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island. Adding to this, Iran has attacked ship navigation systems on the Omani island of Didamar, located at the entrance of the Persian Gulf. Furthermore, Iranian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Kioumars Heidari said that the strategic waterway will not open except by the order of the leader of the revolution.The latest developments temper expectations for a diplomatic resolution to end the US-Iran conflict and turn out to be another factor benefiting the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), suggesting that the path of least resistance for the DXY remains to the upside. Traders now look forward to the release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, which, along with speeches from influential FOMC members and the incoming geopolitical headlines, should provide some meaningful impetus to the index.DXY 4-hour chartTechnical AnalysisThe DXY retains a bullish near-term bias following the previous day's break above the 102.40-102.50 horizontal resistance. Moreover, spot prices hold well above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, reinforcing a constructive tone. Meanwhile, any meaningful corrective slide could find initial support at the 200-period EMA around 101.55, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader uptrend if a pullback unfolds. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.59% 0.69% 0.88% 1.00% 0.39% 0.05% 1.73% EUR -0.59% 0.11% 0.30% 0.47% -0.09% -0.53% 1.14% GBP -0.69% -0.11% 0.19% 0.34% -0.19% -0.64% 1.04% JPY -0.88% -0.30% -0.19% 0.11% -0.54% -0.81% 0.79% CAD -1.00% -0.47% -0.34% -0.11% -0.62% -0.97% 0.76% AUD -0.39% 0.09% 0.19% 0.54% 0.62% -0.44% 1.15% NZD -0.05% 0.53% 0.64% 0.81% 0.97% 0.44% 1.70% CHF -1.73% -1.14% -1.04% -0.79% -0.76% -1.15% -1.70% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
04:28 Euro posts modest gains near 1.1100 as traders assess ECB's rate path
The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.1095 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited by expectations of a bigger interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.
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However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited by expectations of a bigger interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% MoM in October, versus 0.6% growth prior, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. This figure came in hotter than the market expectations of 0.3%. Stripping out volatile food and energy, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% against the forecast for a 0.2% gain.Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that a hot inflation report could push him toward advocating for a half-point increase in December.Traders are now pricing in nearly 87.3% odds of a Fed rate hike when the Fed next meets December 8-9 and put odds of a half-point hike at 12.7%, after being around zero prior to the inflation report, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Across the pond, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Philip Lane noted that energy prices may be falling but the ECB’s interest rate decisions will depend on how strongly the recent surge in fuel costs spreads to wages and other prices.Last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the central Bank is looking at indicators to see if an interest rate hike will be warranted next month, after it held rates steady in October.Euro outlook softens as ECB caution contrasts with Fed and French political risksStrategists at Rabobank note that “the Fed is not the only G10 central bank widely expected to hike rates in December,” with the ECB “among those banks also likely to tighten policy.” However, they caution that “the ECB, however, could prove to be reluctant to hike rates beyond December,” pointing to signals from “the last ECB press conference” which “suggested that the GC were becoming increasingly concerns about the growth outlook.” In Rabobank’s house view, “market pricing for 2027 ECB rate rises remains too aggressive,” and they warn that “another factor that could weigh on the EUR in the coming months are uncertainties about what a far-right president in France could mean for EU cooperation going forward.” Against this backdrop, Rabobank “forecast a move to EUR/USD1.10 on a 3-month view.”Lane stresses consensus and inflation lags, modestly supportive for the EuroECB’s Lane scores 6.2/10 on FXS Speechtracker, exactly in line with the historic average, signaling no major shift in tone but a steady, mildly hawkish bias. Emphasis on a “high premium on consensus” and a “high bar on directional forward guidance” suggests the ECB will avoid committing to an aggressive easing path, which is modestly supportive for the Euro.Lane’s focus on underlying inflation as a guide to one-year-ahead inflation, and the expectation of second-round effects, reinforces concern about persistent price pressures. The idea that headline inflation could fall as energy prices reverse while underlying inflation rises, combined with the need for an instrument for multiple bond market equilibriums, points to an ECB that remains cautious on loosening policy, keeping Euro downside somewhat contained.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD keeps a bearish vibe under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath a dense band of volatility and trend indicators. The 20-day Bollinger Bands now sit entirely above price, with the lower band and the middle band acting as immediate overhead supply, while the upper band and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) reinforce a broader downside bias. The Relative Strength Index (14) at about 37 stays below the neutral 50 mark, hinting that selling pressure still outweighs dip-buying interest despite the recent slowdown in downside momentum.On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the lower Bollinger band close to 1.1095, followed by the mid-band around 1.1185. Above that, the upper Bollinger band at roughly 1.1270 lines up ahead of the 100-day SMA near 1.1405, forming a wider cap that bulls would need to reclaim to alleviate the current bearish structure. With no clear nearby support levels from the monitored indicators below the market, traders may continue to treat any rebound into this clustered resistance as an opportunity to re-engage the prevailing downtrend.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD keeps a bearish vibe under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath a dense band of volatility and trend indicators. The 20-day Bollinger Bands now sit entirely above price, with the lower band and the middle band acting as immediate overhead supply, while the upper band and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) reinforce a broader downside bias. The Relative Strength Index (14) at about 37 stays below the neutral 50 mark, hinting that selling pressure still outweighs dip-buying interest despite the recent slowdown in downside momentum.On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the lower Bollinger band close to 1.1095, followed by the mid-band around 1.1185. Above that, the upper Bollinger band at roughly 1.1270 lines up ahead of the 100-day SMA near 1.1405, forming a wider cap that bulls would need to reclaim to alleviate the current bearish structure. With no clear nearby support levels from the monitored indicators below the market, traders may continue to treat any rebound into this clustered resistance as an opportunity to re-engage the prevailing downtrend.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
04:07 Japanese Yen recovers from two-month low as BoJ rate hike bets meet intervention risk
The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak to its highest level since early September, around the 160.00 psychological mark touched the previous day.
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Spot prices, however, show some resilience below mid-159.00s, warranting some caution before positioning for a further decline amid mixed fundamental cues.The preliminary Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) published by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) showed that wholesale inflation increased by 0.7% in October, marking the first rise in three months. Moreover, the yearly rate accelerated to 7.1% from 6.8% in September, strengthening the case for an imminent BoJ rate hike in December. Adding to this, Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura warned against excessive FX volatility, fueling intervention risks and providing a modest lift to the Japanese Yen (JPY).The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, consolidates a two-day rally to its highest level since April 2025 and exerts some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. However, the growing acceptance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise borrowing costs again and the possibility of a jumbo 50-basis-point (bps) rate hike in December continue to act as a tailwind for the USD. Moreover, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid the US-Iran standoff, which further supports the safe-haven Greenback.President Donald Trump signaled that further US military action against Iran was unlikely for now, raising hopes that negotiations could bring an end to the conflict. That said, the US has repeatedly struck Iran’s Qeshm Island, while Tehran targeted an Omani island used to help ships navigate the Strait of Hormuz. This tempers expectations for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict, which, along with hawkish Fed bets, favors USD bulls and backs the case for the emergence of dip-buying around the USD/JPY pair.USD/JPY daily chartTechnical AnalysisThe USD/JPY pair maintains a bullish near-term bias above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158.99. Spot prices consolidate just beneath the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 152.88–164.00 rally at 159.75, which is followed by the 78.6% retracement at 161.62. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 100-day SMA at 158.99, ahead of the 50.0% retracement at 158.44. A deeper pullback would expose the 38.2% level at 157.13, with lower structural floors at 155.51 and 152.88.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
04:00 BoJ's Asada says must be mindful of expected effect of past rate increases on economy
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Toichiro Asada said on Thursday that the central bank must be mindful of expected effect of past rate increases on economy. Asada added that underlying inflation fluctuates around levels consistent with BoJ's price target.
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Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Toichiro Asada said on Thursday that the central bank must be mindful of expected effect of past rate increases on economy. Asada added that underlying inflation fluctuates around levels consistent with BoJ's price target. Key quotesMust be mindful of expected effect of past rate increases on economy.
Financial conditions stay accommodative.
Underlying inflation fluctuates around levels consistent with central bank's price target.
With policy rate in neutral range, further hike could have greater effect on economy.
Must be cautious of risk as rate hikes may harm economy, reduce core inflation.
Mindful of risk overshoot in underlying inflation above target could hurt economy.
Risk remains from past hikes, future increases could curb inflation if they slow growth.
Central bank can use actual consumer inflation data to gauge risk of inflation exceeding 2%.
Current price increases aren’t necessarily fueled by demand given weak growth, consumption.
Even if Bank of Japan raises rates in future, must be cautious about pace of increases.
Personally thinks recent consumption data aren't necessarily robust.
Japan's economic growth poised to pick up moderately.
Because monetary policy impact shows after at least a year, must closely monitor cumulative effect of BoJ’s rate hikes on corporate funding, household borrowing. BoJ’s Asada flags neutral rates but warns against aggressive tightening for the YenBoJ’s Asada speech scores 3.2/10 on FXS Speechtracker, exactly in line with the speaker’s historic average, signaling no clear hawkish shift despite talk of past rate hikes and neutral policy rates. Emphasis on accommodative financial conditions, weak consumption, and the risk that further hikes could harm the economy and reduce core inflation points to a mildly dovish bias for the Yen, even as underlying inflation is described as fluctuating around the price target.Asada highlights that current price increases are not clearly demand-driven and stresses that future rate increases must be cautious and gradual, reinforcing the message that aggressive tightening is unlikely. The focus on using actual consumer inflation data to gauge overshoot risks, alongside warnings that past and future hikes could curb inflation by slowing growth, supports a stance of careful, data-dependent policy that tempers expectations for rapid Yen-supportive rate hikes.Market reactionNo major reaction is seen in the Japanese Yen (JPY) following remarks from BoJ’s Asada. At press time, the USD/JPY pair trades 0.12% lower at around 159.65. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Financial conditions stay accommodative.
Underlying inflation fluctuates around levels consistent with central bank's price target.
With policy rate in neutral range, further hike could have greater effect on economy.
Must be cautious of risk as rate hikes may harm economy, reduce core inflation.
Mindful of risk overshoot in underlying inflation above target could hurt economy.
Risk remains from past hikes, future increases could curb inflation if they slow growth.
Central bank can use actual consumer inflation data to gauge risk of inflation exceeding 2%.
Current price increases aren’t necessarily fueled by demand given weak growth, consumption.
Even if Bank of Japan raises rates in future, must be cautious about pace of increases.
Personally thinks recent consumption data aren't necessarily robust.
Japan's economic growth poised to pick up moderately.
Because monetary policy impact shows after at least a year, must closely monitor cumulative effect of BoJ’s rate hikes on corporate funding, household borrowing. BoJ’s Asada flags neutral rates but warns against aggressive tightening for the YenBoJ’s Asada speech scores 3.2/10 on FXS Speechtracker, exactly in line with the speaker’s historic average, signaling no clear hawkish shift despite talk of past rate hikes and neutral policy rates. Emphasis on accommodative financial conditions, weak consumption, and the risk that further hikes could harm the economy and reduce core inflation points to a mildly dovish bias for the Yen, even as underlying inflation is described as fluctuating around the price target.Asada highlights that current price increases are not clearly demand-driven and stresses that future rate increases must be cautious and gradual, reinforcing the message that aggressive tightening is unlikely. The focus on using actual consumer inflation data to gauge overshoot risks, alongside warnings that past and future hikes could curb inflation by slowing growth, supports a stance of careful, data-dependent policy that tempers expectations for rapid Yen-supportive rate hikes.Market reactionNo major reaction is seen in the Japanese Yen (JPY) following remarks from BoJ’s Asada. At press time, the USD/JPY pair trades 0.12% lower at around 159.65. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
03:58 UK inflation: Deutsche Bank sees further upside – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank economists Sanjay Raja and Maui Brennan expect UK inflation to move higher in October, driven by energy, tobacco and modest food and services gains. They forecast headline CPI at 3.80% year-on-year, with Core CPI and Services CPI also rising. Looking ahead, they see headline CPI pushing closer to 4.25% early next year, with price pressures remaining sticky.
Deutsche Bank economists Sanjay Raja and Maui Brennan expect UK inflation to move higher in October, driven by energy, tobacco and modest food and services gains. They forecast headline CPI at 3.80% year-on-year, with Core CPI and Services CPI also rising. Looking ahead, they see headline CPI pushing closer to 4.25% early next year, with price pressures remaining sticky.
Deutsche Bank flags renewed inflation pressures
"After broadly matching expectations in September, we expect UK inflation to rise further in October."
"What’s the story? The October inflation story will feature three main drivers. First, energy prices are set to push even higher as we enter the final quarter of the year, with the Ofgem Price Cap up, heating oil prices up, and petrol and diesel prices up too. Second, tobacco duty will also be a prominent feature of the October inflation report, with higher duties on vapes and tobacco kicking in."
"Where do we see inflation going in October? We expect headline CPI to have risen to 3.80% y-o-y (Sep-26: 3.48%). Core CPI, we think, will have jumped by 2.87% y-o-y (Sep-26: 2.78%). Services CPI, we project, will have edged up to 3.87% y-o-y (Sep-26: 3.72%)."
"Looking ahead, more inflation is coming. We continue to see headline CPI pushing closer to 4.25% y-o-y at the start of next year. Headline prices will also likely remain sticky, as food prices push higher, and core goods start to see some of the impacts of higher energy prices impact retail prices."
"Index-linked price rises will also keep services momentum from slipping too far."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
03:47 Canadian Dollar remains steady as hawkish Fed bets keep US Dollar stable
USD/CAD holds steady around 1.4250 during Thursday's Asian trading session after posting two consecutive days of gains. Despite the pause, the pair could resume its upward climb as the US Dollar (USD) may draw strength from an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook.
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Despite the pause, the pair could resume its upward climb as the US Dollar (USD) may draw strength from an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook.Following hotter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, traders have ramped up bets on a December rate hike, especially after Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted earlier this week that he would back a quarter-point increase, or even a half-point move if inflation worsens. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in around an 87% probability of a December rate hike, alongside a nearly 13% chance of a larger 50 basis point increase.According to TD Securities, the US Dollar still has scope to advance against select majors, with analysts highlighting that “across global major currencies, we see room for the USD to rally selectively against CAD and KRW in the near-term.” They argue that “diverging employment data releases will likely keep USDCAD supported above 1.40,” as Canada’s “rising unemployment rate amid falling wage growth rate” undermines the case for tighter policy. In their view, this backdrop “reduces the market pricing of a December BoC rate hike relative to the Fed,” leaving the Canadian Dollar vulnerable while USDCAD remains underpinned at elevated levels.Moreover, the USD/CAD pair may further appreciate as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces headwinds from falling crude oil prices. Oil has pulled back as the US and Iran appear to be avoiding further escalation, while supply has simultaneously expanded.According to OPEC’s monthly report released on Wednesday, OPEC+ crude production surged by roughly 2.04 million barrels per day in October to reach 41.23 million barrels per day, driven largely by higher output from Saudi Arabia.On the domestic front, the CAD is finding some underlying support as traders also price in a potential Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hike. Annual inflation in Canada edged up to 3.1% in September from 3.0% in August, marking its highest reading since May's 3.2%. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party's victory in the US mid-term elections may help ease trade pressures on Canadian economic growth. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.774 vs. 6.7191 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.774 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7191 and 6.6797 Reuters estimate.
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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.774 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7191 and 6.6797 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
03:13 Japan’s Mimura says forex fluctuations are too rapid
Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said on Wednesday that recent currency moves, including those of the past few days, are too rapid.
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Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said on Wednesday that recent currency moves, including those of the past few days, are too rapid. Key quotes Forex fluctuations are too rapid.
Recent moves are too rapid. Market reactionNo major reaction is seen in the Japanese Yen (JPY) following remarks from Japan's Mimura. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Recent moves are too rapid. Market reactionNo major reaction is seen in the Japanese Yen (JPY) following remarks from Japan's Mimura. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
03:13 WTI declines as US, Iran avoids further escalation, rising OPEC+ output
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends it losses for the fifth consecutive day, trading around $85.00 per barrel during Asian hours on Thursday.
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Crude oil prices have declined as the United States (US) and Iran remain deadlocked in negotiations, though both sides are currently avoiding further escalation.While Washington insists that nuclear issues must be part of any initial talks aimed at ending their war, a senior Iranian security official rejected this key condition, stating that Tehran would not allow a single atom of its enriched nuclear material to leave the country. Iran has also reiterated that the US must lift its sanctions and end the naval blockade before the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened.OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, crude oil production jumped in October. According to OPEC's monthly report released on Wednesday, the alliance pumped 41.23 million barrels per day in October. This marks an increase of about 2.04 million barrels per day from September, led primarily by a sharp rise in output from Saudi Arabia.Oil risk stays elevated as US–Iran tensions threaten further escalationAnalysts at Rabobank caution that the geopolitical backdrop around Oil remains highly unsettled, noting that “presuming this was achieved last weekend, where other reports suggest the US was moments away from striking, that means we could still be looking at more fighting by mid- to end-November, at which time a third US aircraft carrier will be in the region.” They characterise this potential timeline and build-up of US military assets as “a distressing report,” underscoring that markets cannot yet discount the risk of renewed escalation in US–Iran tensions. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
03:07 British Pound steadies above 1.3250 as traders await UK GDP data
The GBP/USD pair holds steady around 1.3275 during the early Asian session on Thursday. Traders continue to assess the monetary policy path from the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD flatlines near 1.3275 in Thursday’s early Asian session.BoE’s Greene says it is appropriate to proactively tighten our monetary policy stance.Traders have boosted bets on a 25 bps Fed rate hike in December to 87.3%.The GBP/USD pair holds steady around 1.3275 during the early Asian session on Thursday. Traders continue to assess the monetary policy path from the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The preliminary reading of UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3) will be released later on Thursday.BoE policymaker Megan Greene said on Wednesday that it was appropriate to "proactively tighten our monetary policy stance" to ward against the risk of wage growth getting stuck at higher levels and firms passing those costs on. Hawkish comments from Greene could provide some support to the Cable against the USD in the near term.On the US front, traders raise their bets on a Fed rate hike in December following hotter than expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said earlier this week that he would support a quarter-point rate increase in December and might push for a half-point move if inflation data is worse than expected.Markets are now pricing in nearly an 87.3% chance of a Fed rate increase in the December policy meeting, while the probability of a 50 bps hike stands at 12.7%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool."We've got broad-based strength in the dollar largely underpinned by a hawkish shift in Fed fund rate expectations driven by the hot October CPI print but amplified as well by recent comments by Fed officials," said Elias Haddad, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.UK rates steady as markets eye Bailey speech and global data slateStrategists at Societe Generale note that UK rates are starting the week on a stable footing, with the "10y IRS opens unchanged at 4.70% after holding 4.69% (100dma) last week." They highlight nearby technical levels, citing "support 4.58%, resistance 4.78%," and point out that Governor Bailey "speaks in Zurich later today, first intervention since the MPC rate increase week," a key event for Sterling and UK rates traders.Looking ahead, Societe Generale flags a busy global data calendar, with the "week ahead: US CPI, PPI, Fed speak incl Waller and Williams. EU 3Q GDP second read. UK prel 3Q GDP. China trade balance. CPI for Mexico, Norway, Czech Republic, Hungary, India." In the UK specifically, they focus on Thursday’s growth release, where "prel 3Q GDP" is due and SG "forecast 0.7% qoq," providing an important gauge of domestic momentum following the recent MPC decision.Greene flags proactive tightening as UK wage risks riseBoE's Greene delivers a strongly hawkish signal, with a 9.4/10 FXS Speechtracker score notably above the historic 7.7/10 baseline. The emphasis on “proactively tighten our monetary policy stance” marks a clear shift toward tighter policy guidance.The remark that UK wage growth is “too high” and that labor market slack is smaller than previously thought reinforces the case for earlier and more forceful action. This combination of persistent wage pressures and reduced slack supports a stronger Pound bias as markets price in a higher probability of additional BoE tightening.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD maintains a bearish bias below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, GBP/USD keeps a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. The pair is consolidating in the lower half of the recent Bollinger envelope, with the lower band offering nearby demand, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 43 suggests subdued, mildly negative momentum rather than oversold conditions.On the topside, initial resistance is clustered around the Bollinger middle band at 1.3370, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.3400, with a stronger cap emerging at the Bollinger upper band near 1.3475. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the Bollinger lower band at 1.3260; a decisive break beneath this floor would open the way for a deeper slide, while sustained trading above it would keep the pair in a range, albeit still pressured by overhead moving-average resistance.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD maintains a bearish bias below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, GBP/USD keeps a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. The pair is consolidating in the lower half of the recent Bollinger envelope, with the lower band offering nearby demand, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 43 suggests subdued, mildly negative momentum rather than oversold conditions.On the topside, initial resistance is clustered around the Bollinger middle band at 1.3370, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.3400, with a stronger cap emerging at the Bollinger upper band near 1.3475. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the Bollinger lower band at 1.3260; a decisive break beneath this floor would open the way for a deeper slide, while sustained trading above it would keep the pair in a range, albeit still pressured by overhead moving-average resistance.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
02:06 Iran says Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until leader of the revolution orders
Iranian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Kioumars Heidari said that Tehran has closed the Strait of Hormuz and will not open it except by the order of the leader of the revolution, Al Jazeera reported on Wednesday.
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Iranian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Kioumars Heidari said that Tehran has closed the Strait of Hormuz and will not open it except by the order of the leader of the revolution, Al Jazeera reported on Wednesday.Meanwhile, Iran's parliament speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that the critical waterway will "never return" to its status prior to the US-Israel war on Iran.Senior Iranian officials believe the US is planning either further military strikes or an ever-tightening economic stranglehold that will push Tehran into retaliatory action.Separately, the Saudi-led coalition intercepted and destroyed a drone over Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Eastern province amid an escalation in cross-border attacks. The source also said debris fell after destruction of two ballistic missiles aimed at Mecca.Market reactionAt the time of writing, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 0.10% on the day at $85.25. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
01:46 US Dollar: Supportive fundamentals offset deficit worries – Rabobank
Rabobank’s FX Strategy team argues that reduced fears of political interference at the Federal Reserve and evidence of renewed safe-haven demand support the Dollar. The bank notes that concerns over the US budget deficit and treasury market stresses could weigh on the Dollar over the medium term, but concludes that last year’s Dollar debasement fears were exaggerated.
Rabobank’s FX Strategy team argues that reduced fears of political interference at the Federal Reserve and evidence of renewed safe-haven demand support the Dollar. The bank notes that concerns over the US budget deficit and treasury market stresses could weigh on the Dollar over the medium term, but concludes that last year’s Dollar debasement fears were exaggerated.
Fed credibility and safe-haven dynamics
"Diminished fears about political interference on the Fed is a supportive factor for the USD. In addition, at the start of the Gulf war, strong demand for the USD undermined last year’s claims that the USD’s had lost at least part of its safe haven value. In our view the USD’s safe haven appeal is linked to its embedded position in global payments systems, which could take decades to shake."
"Reduced concerns over the credibility of the greenback should allow it more opportunity to benefit from the US’s robust economic growth performance. In addition, in our view, the stresses that the EUR could face in the coming months could support a preference for long USD positions."
"There is still a risk that concerns related to the US’s unwieldly budget deficit could weigh on the USD over the medium-term. The US budget deficit at over 6% of GDP is wider than that of France. However, for decades the US has benefitted from the ‘exorbitant privilege’ of being able to fund its debt at relatively low yields, due to strong demand for its debt."
"There are signs that this ‘privilege’ has slipped. These manifest in changing yield spreads vs. other bond markets and signs of stress in the treasury market. Indeed, there have been notable incidences of uncomfortable selloffs in the US treasury market over the past 19 months or so."
"Either way, last year’s dollar debasement fears appear exaggerated."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
01:38 BoE’s Greene says it is appropriate to proactively tighten our monetary policy stance
Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, Megan Greene, said on Wednesday that it was appropriate to "proactively tighten our monetary policy stance" to ward against the risk of wage growth getting stuck at higher levels and firms passing those costs on.
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Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, Megan Greene, said on Wednesday that it was appropriate to "proactively tighten our monetary policy stance" to ward against the risk of wage growth getting stuck at higher levels and firms passing those costs on.Key quotesIt is appropriate to proactively tighten our monetary policy stance to lean against the risk of wage growth getting stuck at higher levels.
Data shows wage growth in the UK is too high.
There is less labor market slack than thought.
It's appropriate to proactively tighten monetary policy.Market reactionAt press time, the GBP/USD pair trades 0.51% lower at around 1.3275.Greene flags proactive tightening as UK wage risks riseBoE’s Greene delivered a notably more hawkish message, with a 9.4/10 FXS Speechtracker score versus a 7.7/10 historic average, signaling a clear shift toward tighter policy. The emphasis that wage growth in the UK is “too high” and that labor market slack is “less than thought” underscores concern that inflationary pressures could become entrenched.The call to “proactively tighten” the monetary policy stance to prevent wage growth from getting stuck at elevated levels reinforces a pre-emptive, hawkish bias. For GBP, this raises the prospect of higher-for-longer rates or additional hikes, supporting the currency on expectations that the BoE will lean more aggressively against persistent domestic inflation risks. BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound? The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling? When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound? In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
Data shows wage growth in the UK is too high.
There is less labor market slack than thought.
It's appropriate to proactively tighten monetary policy.Market reactionAt press time, the GBP/USD pair trades 0.51% lower at around 1.3275.Greene flags proactive tightening as UK wage risks riseBoE’s Greene delivered a notably more hawkish message, with a 9.4/10 FXS Speechtracker score versus a 7.7/10 historic average, signaling a clear shift toward tighter policy. The emphasis that wage growth in the UK is “too high” and that labor market slack is “less than thought” underscores concern that inflationary pressures could become entrenched.The call to “proactively tighten” the monetary policy stance to prevent wage growth from getting stuck at elevated levels reinforces a pre-emptive, hawkish bias. For GBP, this raises the prospect of higher-for-longer rates or additional hikes, supporting the currency on expectations that the BoE will lean more aggressively against persistent domestic inflation risks. BoE FAQs What does the Bank of England do and how does it impact the Pound? The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP). How does the Bank of England’s monetary policy influence Sterling? When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Pound? In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Pound Sterling? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
01:26 Gold falls below $4,000 as Fed rate hike bets grow
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $3,985 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends its downside as persistent inflation forces the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its tightening policy.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price slumps to around $3,985 in Thursday’s early Asian session.Hotter-than-expected US CPI inflation data strengthened expectations that the Fed will raise rates in its December policy meeting.The US October PPI inflation data will be in the spotlight on Friday.Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $3,985 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends its downside as persistent inflation forces the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its tightening policy.The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% MoM in October after advancing 0.6% in September, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. This figure came in hotter than the 0.3% expected and strengthened expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates next month.“CPI came out a little hotter than expected, and the market is interpreting that it warrants higher rates at the December meeting,” said StoneX Senior Market Strategist Bob Haberkorn.Bets on a 50-basis-point Fed rate hike in December began to build after Fed governor Christopher Waller said he would support more aggressive action if CPI came in too hot. Higher interest rates typically undermine the precious metal by making interest-bearing assets more attractive.The probability of a 25 bps rate hike is fully priced in, while the possibility of a 50 bps hike rose to 12.7% from 0% before the data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.Traders will take more cues from the release of the US October Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data on Friday for fresh impetus. If the report shows hotter-than-expected outcomes, this could exert some selling pressure on the yellow metal in the near term.Gold shines as risk-off tone weighs on equities and supports bondsAnalysts at Deutsche Bank note that while "credit was actually fairly flat on both sides of the Atlantic," the broader "risk-off tone in equities meant it was a good week for gold, which was up +5.06% (-0.42% Friday) in its best week since August." They add that, "along with the risk-off tone from the AI selloff, that helped to bring down sovereign bond yields around the world." Even so, Deutsche Bank points out that "the 10-year US Treasury yield is up +1bps at 4.87% and Brent down around a percent as I type," underscoring the mixed cross-asset backdrop into the latest session.Goolsbee flags ‘real inflation issue,’ pushing Fed tone deeper into hawkish territoryFed’s Goolsbee delivered a distinctly more hawkish message, with an 8/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing notably above the 6.8/10 historical average and underscoring rising concern about persistent price pressures. The emphasis that the latest CPI was “borderline disturbing,” that services inflation is “not coming down,” and that “we have a real inflation issue on our hands” signals growing discomfort with underlying inflation dynamics even as the job market is described as steady and stable. Repeated references to dealing with persistent inflation and the risk of expectations becoming unanchored reinforce a bias toward keeping policy tight and leaving the door open to further action, a backdrop that tends to support the Dollar against lower-yielding peers.The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.69 points to 145.61, keeping the policy tone firmly in hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 mark. The combination of an elevated FXS Fed Sentiment Index and an above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score suggests markets should continue to price a higher-for-longer Fed path, a configuration that is typically constructive for the Dollar and a headwind for risk-sensitive currencies.
Technical Analysis: Gold retains a negative outlook below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD remains under clear downside pressure, holding below the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average and the 100-day simple moving average, which together reinforce a bearish near-term bias. Price is compressing in the lower half of the Bollinger envelope, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 43 stays below the midline, hinting at subdued but not oversold bearish momentum.On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band around $4,055, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,200 and the upper Bollinger band near $4,215. On the downside, the next notable support emerges at the lower Bollinger band, now seen close to $3,895, where sellers may be tempted to take some profit if the decline extends.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Technical Analysis: Gold retains a negative outlook below the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD remains under clear downside pressure, holding below the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average and the 100-day simple moving average, which together reinforce a bearish near-term bias. Price is compressing in the lower half of the Bollinger envelope, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 43 stays below the midline, hinting at subdued but not oversold bearish momentum.On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band around $4,055, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,200 and the upper Bollinger band near $4,215. On the downside, the next notable support emerges at the lower Bollinger band, now seen close to $3,895, where sellers may be tempted to take some profit if the decline extends.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
01:03 Australian Dollar dips under 0.6850 as Fed-RBA policy divergence widens
The Australian Dollar lost 0.27% against the US Dollar on Wednesday as market participants priced in further Federal Reserve tightening, amid a light economic docket in Australia and the US. The AUD/USD trades below 0.6850.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}AUD/USD falls 0.27% below 0.6850 despite positive market sentiment.December Fed hike odds reach 87% for a 25-basis-point increase.RBA expected to pause tightening, with markets pricing 2027 rate cuts.The Australian Dollar lost 0.27% against the US Dollar on Wednesday as market participants priced in further Federal Reserve tightening, amid a light economic docket in Australia and the US. The AUD/USD trades below 0.6850.AUD/USD extends losses as persistent US inflation reinforces Fed rate hike expectationsSentiment remains positive as US stocks post solid gains. In the FX markets, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck against a basket of six currencies, gains 0.67% to 102.91, retreating after hitting an 18-month high of 102.96.The Greenback appreciated after hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on Tuesday. Fed Governor Christopher Waller comment that if core CPI rose by 0.3% could prompt him to support a 50-basis-point rate hike was fulfilled once the data was known.Underlying inflation in October increased 0.3% MoM, for the third straight time. Headline CPI increased by 0.4% MoM, down from 0.6%, but above estimates of 0.3%.Money markets had priced in an 87% chance of a 25 bps rate hike and a slim 13% chance that the Fed may go for a 50 bps hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.Consequently, AUD/USD is edging lower, amid speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has finished its tightening cycle and is poised to hold rates for the foreseeable future. In fact, the RBA is expected to cut rates by 28 basis points in 2027, according to Prime Terminal data.Source: Prime TerminalAhead, the Aussie economic docket will feature Consumer Inflation Expectations for November, with October’s print coming in at 5.3%, up from September’s 4.9%.In the US, investors are preparing for Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims release, housing data and Fed speeches, ahead of Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI).AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookAUD/USD daily chartIn the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6844, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds well beneath the cluster of simple moving averages (SMA) around 0.7028 and a series of former rising trend lines that now act as overhead barriers. The break under the most recent rising support line, which now comes in as resistance near 0.6926, underscores persistent downside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at about 35 points to weak but not yet oversold momentum, suggesting sellers remain in control unless price can regain those broken structural levels.On the topside, initial resistance is located at the former rising trend line around 0.6926, ahead of the confluence of the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs near 0.7028; a daily close above this band would be needed to ease immediate bearish pressure and open the way to 0.7135 and the horizontal barrier at 0.7198. On the downside, firm structural support does not emerge until the long-term descending trend line turned base around 0.6343, leaving the pair vulnerable to further grinding losses while it remains capped below the aforementioned resistance cluster.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.) Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.68% 0.51% 0.57% 0.44% 0.32% 0.72% 0.93% EUR -0.68% -0.17% -0.09% -0.24% -0.36% 0.03% 0.22% GBP -0.51% 0.17% 0.08% -0.09% -0.19% 0.20% 0.39% JPY -0.57% 0.09% -0.08% -0.15% -0.25% 0.14% 0.34% CAD -0.44% 0.24% 0.09% 0.15% -0.09% 0.28% 0.47% AUD -0.32% 0.36% 0.19% 0.25% 0.09% 0.40% 0.61% NZD -0.72% -0.03% -0.20% -0.14% -0.28% -0.40% 0.19% CHF -0.93% -0.22% -0.39% -0.34% -0.47% -0.61% -0.19% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
00:30 Yen slides toward 160.00 with Fed speakers and US PPI ahead
The 160.00 level is within reach of USD/JPY for the first time since early September, with Fed speakers and US producer prices still to come before the weekend. USD/JPY has left the range it held for seven weeks and reached just under 160.00, its highest since September 2.
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USD/JPY has left the range it held for seven weeks and reached just under 160.00, its highest since September 2. It's trading a little below that high, near the top of Wednesday's range.The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) beat forecasts with a 0.4% rise, and Fed Governor Waller called a hike at the December 8-9 meeting likely. Futures now give a quarter-point move there odds near 90%. The Fed's rate is 3.75%-4.00% against 1.25% at the Bank of Japan (BoJ), a gap of at least two and a half points that pays holders of Dollars over Yen.The BoJ is expected to move too. BoJ board member Takata voted for 1.50% in October's 8-1 decision, and most economists expect the rest to join him at the December 17-18 meeting. A quarter-point from each central bank nine days apart would leave the gap, and the reason to hold Dollars over Yen, exactly where it is.On the calendarJapan's October corporate goods prices are due at 23:50 GMT on Wednesday, and third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) follows at 23:50 GMT on Sunday. Both feed the BoJ's December decision, the Japanese side of the gap.US jobless claims come at 13:30 GMT on Thursday, with 195K forecast against 189K, and Cleveland Fed President Hammack opens a day of six Fed speeches at 14:00 GMT. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for October lands at the same hour on Friday, with a 0.4% rise forecast against September's 1.3%. With a quarter-point Fed move priced, both bear on whether a half-point is possible.On the chartsThe break takes USD/JPY above the 156.00-159.00 range it had held since late September, and it has recovered nearly all of the fall from the September 2 high near 160.50 to the September low near 153.00. The last two times it traded above 160.00, at the end of July and at the start of September, it fell more than five Yen within a week.USD/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
00:01 UK growth figures are next for a Pound at a three-week low
Third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday is forecast to show the UK economy growing faster, and GBP/USD goes into it at its lowest since mid-October.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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