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EUR/USD reverses course and rises by more than 1.16% after the European Central Bank (ECB) held rates unchanged, while a leaked source revealed that policymakers are ready to discuss rate hikes as soon as April.

The NZD/USD pair surges to the 0.5870 level, up 1.30% on Thursday amid broad weakness of the US Dollar (USD) despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) holding decision the previous day and weak economic data in New Zealand .

Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) came in at $788M, below expectations ($971M) in February

The USD/CHF trades more softly during the North American session despite the Swiss National Bank (SNB)'s efforts to intervene verbally in the forex markets to depreciate the Swiss Franc. Broad US Dollar weakness pushed the major down 0.31% to 0.7906.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 100 mark and is now trading near the 99.40 price zone after investors assessed the Fed’s interest rate decision. Chair Jerome Powell claimed on Wednesday that higher energy prices will likely lead to inflation.

AUD/USD advances some 0.47% on Thursday as the US Dollar weakens, despite traders delaying Fed rate cuts until 2027, while US Crude Oil prices are edging lower by 4.21%, a headwind for the buck. The pair hovers around 0.7050 at the time of writing.

Gold (XAU/USD) retreats more than 4.5% on Thursday as US Treasury yields rise amid investor concerns about high energy prices, while a solid US jobs report prompted traders to price out a rate cut in 2026, with expectations of the first move in 2027.

Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds from daily lows on Thursday as a pullback in the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields provides support, though the metal remains on the back foot as markets reassess global rate expectations following a wave of central bank decisions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average extended losses on Thursday, falling below 46,000 as a renewed spike in Crude Oil prices deepened concerns about stagflation in the US economy.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5840 on Thursday, up 0.73% on the day, rebounding after the previous day’s decline. The pair largely shrugs off disappointing GDP data from New Zealand, instead benefiting from a weaker US Dollar (USD).

BNP Paribas highlights that Central European economies are holding up well despite a shrinking population and working-age cohort. The bank notes continued support from EU funds, strong productivity gains relative to wages, and a highly educated workforce.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $97.20 per barrel on Thursday, down 1.68% on the day after reaching an intraday high of $100.15, as markets balance improving supply conditions against escalating geopolitical risks.

BNY’s Geoff Yu remains broadly constructive on South Africa and the Rand, citing structural improvements under the Government of National Unity and earlier terms-of-trade support from the 2026 commodity rally.

The GBP/USD surges during the North American session after the Bank of England held rates unchanged, citing high inflationary pressures spurred by the Middle East conflict. The pair trades at 1.3356, up 0.76%.

United States 4-Week Bill Auction declined to 3.615% from previous 3.64%

USD/JPY fell to 158.40 on Thursday as investors assessed both nations' central bank decisions.

EUR/USD edges higher on Thursday as the Euro (EUR) strengthens following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision, while the US Dollar (USD) weakens broadly after a series of central bank decisions, with both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE) delivering hawkish

Nordea’s Chief Analyst Jan von Gerich says the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged but signalled greater readiness to tighten if higher energy prices feed into broader inflation.

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Stefan Koopman notes that the Bank of England (BoE) kept Bank Rate at 3.75% but adopted a distinctly hawkish tone as a renewed energy shock lifts inflation projections.

TD Securities strategists note that a more hawkish Bank of England (BoE), including removal of its easing bias and discussion of potential hikes, produced only modest Pound (GBP) gains versus the Dollar (USD).

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below forecasts (39B) in March 13: Actual (35B)

AUD/USD trades around 0.7050 on Thursday, up 0.34% on the day, supported by the resilience of the Australian Dollar (AUD) following the release of Australia’s employment data.

HSBC strategists Jose Rasco and Michael Zervos say the Federal Reserve kept the funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% and signalled a clear wait-and-see stance.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the March policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the March policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

ING’s Global Head of Macro, Carsten Brzeski, notes that the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and is in no rush to hike, despite war in the Middle East and higher Oil prices.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the March policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

Rabobank highlights that the FOMC’s March projections show higher PCE and core PCE inflation at 2.7% in 2026, yet unchanged median rate dots, implying only a temporary inflation shock.

United States Wholesale Inventories came in at -0.5% below forecasts (0.2%) in January

United States New Home Sales (MoM) below forecasts (0.72M) in January: Actual (0.587M)

United States New Home Sales (MoM) registered at 587M above expectations (0.72M) in January

According to Reuters, QatarEnergy’s CEO has confirmed significant damage to key facilities, taking around 17% of the country’s LNG exports offline, roughly 12.8 million tonnes per year, for what could be three to five years.

GBP/JPY trades with a downside bias on Thursday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens broadly following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy decision, while the British Pound (GBP) struggles to gain ground against the Yen despite showing relative strength against other major currencies after th

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is quiet against the Dollar, lagging most G10 peers as yield spreads move in favor of the USD after the Fed and Bank of Canada (BoC) meetings.

TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali warns that Gold faces a challenging backdrop as Middle Eastern conflict strains official sector demand and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) keep selling.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad highlights that an escalating Iran war-driven energy shock, combined with a restrictive Federal Reserve and tightening bias at other central banks, is pressuring risk assets and supporting the Dollar.

Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate meets expectations (2.15%)

Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility in line with expectations (2%)

Nomura analysts note that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its policy rate at 0.00% and strengthened its guidance on FX intervention as the Swiss Franc (CHF) has appreciated. Very low Swiss inflation and a stronger CHF are seen prompting FX purchases in Q1.

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja notes the Bank of England (BoE) kept Bank Rate unchanged but clearly signalled a stronger focus on inflation risks. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) dropped its easing bias and stressed readiness to act if inflation expectations rise.

There were 205K Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending March 14, a decrease of 8K from the previous week's unrevised level, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 215K.

ING’s Senior Economist Min Joo Kang notes that the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.75% and maintained a broadly unchanged economic outlook, while acknowledging higher uncertainty. Governor Ueda avoided giving timing signals on the next move, and ING still expects a rate hike in June.

GBP/USD trades around 1.3300 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.28% on the day, supported by a mildly positive market reaction to the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision.

Gold prices remain under heavy pressure on Thursday, breaking below the key $4,600 mark per troy ounce to hit fresh multi-month lows,,down for the seventh consecutive day.

In an interview with Fox Business Network on Thursday, United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US is not attacking Iran's energy infrastructure and added that they have allowed Iranian oil to continue out of the Gulf, per Reuters.

United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.857M, above expectations (1.85M) in March 6

United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey registered at 18.1 above expectations (10) in March

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average: 210.75K (March 13) vs previous 212K

United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 205K, below expectations (215K) in March 13

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its decline on Thursday, slipping to over a one-month low as shifting near-term macroeconomic dynamics overshadow its traditional safe-haven appeal, despite heightened geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes the Dollar has strengthened, with the Dollar Index back above 100.00, as Middle East energy infrastructure attacks lift Brent above USD115 and raise global supply concerns.

United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged came in at 9, above expectations (7)

United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike in line with forecasts (0)

United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (3.75%)

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its policy rate around 0.75% with an 8–1 vote, noting moderate economic recovery and inflation near 2%.

Gold (XAU/USD) has fallen sharply to its lowest level since early February, hovering around $4,680, pressured by a strong US Dollar (USD).

ING’s Senior Economist Charlotte de Montpellier notes that the Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate at 0% as low inflation and a strong Swiss Franc cushion higher energy prices. The SNB’s new projections show very weak inflation through 2027, reinforcing expectations of unchanged rates.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms its major currency pairs during the European trading session on Thursday.

TD Securities’ Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir highlight that US consumer momentum is weakening, with real spending barely growing into early 2026 and creating a soft base for Q1. They project slower quarterly consumption growth but a firmer year-on-year pace, with tax refunds helping more in Q2.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad reports USD/CAD is trading near 1.3735, with resistance at the 200-day moving average. The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its overnight rate at 2.25% but dropped guidance that policy is appropriate, signalling a live hiking bias if energy prices stay high.

Nomura’s European Economics team, led by George Buckley, notes that stronger UK payrolls and stable unemployment contrast with softer wage data and falling full-time jobs.

The EUR/USD pair is 0.16% higher to near 1.1470 during the European trading session on Thursday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) drops slightly, following a strong upside move on Wednesday.

EUR/JPY trades around 182.70 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.23% on the day, as markets digest comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor and await the European Central Bank (ECB) decision.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects the Czech National Bank (CNB) to keep rates unchanged, with the board comfortable at current levels and united against both tightening and easing. While he sees inflation risks as overstated, the Iran war and higher energy prices justify caution.

Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) down to -1.9% in January from previous -0.9%

Eurozone Construction Output s.a (MoM) fell from previous 0.9% to -0.1% in January

Eurozone Labor Cost Index: 3.3% (4Q)

TD Securities economists say the FOMC kept policy unchanged and Powell downplayed the SEP, but they see the Fed’s patience on inflation normalization expiring by late summer as an Oil shock lifts headline inflation.

Spain 5-y Bond Auction: 2.934% vs 2.577%

Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction increased to 3.476% from previous 3.167%

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux expects the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged while warning on upside inflation risks, with markets now pricing the next move as a hike.

ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey warn that missile damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City threatens a key LNG hub supplying nearly 20% of global trade.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $71.56 per troy ounce, down 4.97% from the $75.30 it cost on Wednesday.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel stressed the central bank’s willingness to intervene against excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc (CHF) in his press conference post the monetary policy announcement, in which the central bank left interest rates unchanged at 0%, as expected.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman reports the Japanese Yen is holding up better against the Dollar as the BoJ leaves the door open to an April rate hike and officials step up FX warnings.

Deutsche Bank economist Sanjay Raja notes that recent UK labour market data show stabilisation, with the jobless rate holding at 5.2% and employment and payrolled employees beating expectations. Wage growth is slowing, giving the Bank of England (BoE) some comfort.

USD/CHF depreciated after registering over 1% gains in the previous session, trading around 0.7920 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair moved little after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to keep its interest rate flat at 0% in the first quarter of 2026, as widely expected.

Silver price (XAG/USD) plummets almost 6.5% to near $70 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal faces intense selling pressure as traders raise bets favoring an extended pause by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee notes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50-3.75%, delivering what he characterizes as a hawkish hold. He highlights that this stance has given the Dollar only a temporary anchor, as markets remain volatile.

After posting moderate gains on Monday and Tuesday, EUR/USD reversed its direction and declined sharply on Wednesday. The pair stays in a consolidation phase near 1.1450 in the European morning on Thursday as investors gear up for the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy decisions.

TD Securities strategists Alex Loo and Prashant Newnaha warn that JPY intervention risks are elevated as USD/JPY trades near 160, close to its 2024 high before Ministry of Finance action.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) holds interest rates steady at 0%, as expected. Now investors await Chairman Martin Schlegel's upcoming press conference at 09:00 GMT, where they will be looking for fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.

Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (1.75%)

Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (0%)

ING’s Francesco Pesole argues that recent mixed signals from global central banks will likely encourage the ECB to avoid firm guidance, especially given its sensitivity to Oil after 2022.

Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures are steady around 46,530 and 6,670, respectively, during European hours on Thursday, ahead of the US cash market open. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 futures edge lower by 0.17% to hover near 24,600 at the time of writing.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that the Dollar strengthened after the latest Fed meeting, driven by several smaller hawkish signals rather than a single major shift. Powell stressed that rate cuts depend on inflation moving toward target, while long-term expectations remain anchored.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, following a two-day meeting.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades lower against its major currency peers, but is 0.1% higher to near 1.3270 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday.

Rabobank’s Senior US Strategist Philip Marey notes that the FOMC left the federal funds rate unchanged in March and still projects one cut in 2026, despite higher inflation and growth forecasts.

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 19:

Deutsche Bank economists expect the ECB to keep rates on hold but to acknowledge greater uncertainty and upside risks to near-term inflation following the Iran conflict and Oil spike.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers on Thursday and erodes a part of the previous day’s strong move up to its highest level since July 2024. Spot prices, however, trim a part of modest intraday losses and trade just below the 159.50 area during the early European session.

TD Securities strategists argue that Powell’s hawkish-leaning press conference has supported the US Dollar as markets price out 2026 Fed cuts.

AUD/USD moves slightly upwards after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 0.7040 during the early European hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) stays firm against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of domestic employment data earlier in the day.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that the Norwegian Krone (NOK) and Australian Dollar (AUD) are currently favored in G10 as energy-linked, high-beta currencies with hawkish-leaning central banks.

Switzerland Imports (MoM) declined to 17380M in February from previous 18411M

Switzerland Exports (MoM) fell from previous 22229M to 21584M in February

United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate unchanged at 4.4% in February

Switzerland Trade Balance rose from previous 3818M to 4204M in February

United Kingdom Employment Change (3M): 84K (January) vs 52K

United Kingdom Claimant Count Change came in at 24.7K, below expectations (25.8K) in February

United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) below expectations (5.3%) in January: Actual (5.2%)

United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) registered at 3.8%, below expectations (4%) in January

United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) meets expectations (3.9%) in January

The Bank of England (BoE) is on track to leave the benchmark Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% for the second meeting in a row on Thursday, as the macro context has completely shifted in the past three weeks. 

Danske Bank analysts expect the Sweden's central bank, Riksbank to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% today with a cautious wait-and-see communication and no major changes to the near-term rate path.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that, with Swiss inflation low and the 2022/2023 shock unlikely to repeat, the SNB is now more worried about a strong franc than inflation. Market pricing implies almost one hike by year-end, but the bank may prioritize FX stability.

The NZD/USD pair trades 0.4% higher to near 0.5820 during the European trading session on Thursday. The Kiwi pair gains sharply as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperforms despite disappointing New Zealand (NZD) Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.

Wells Fargo analyzes the March FOMC decision, noting the Federal Reserve kept the fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% and avoided signaling timing for future moves.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan notes that the Federal Reserve kept policy unchanged and now signals only one rate cut in 2026, as the US-Iran war and higher energy prices complicate the outlook.

Rabobank’s Senior Global Strategist Michael Every highlights that Brent and TTF prices have jumped as Israel, with US coordination, struck Iran’s largest gas field and Iran retaliated against GCC energy assets.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur reports that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left rates unchanged with an 8–1 majority, as widely expected. The BoJ still signals willingness to hike if the economy evolves as forecast, and markets see about a 60% chance of an April move.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $96.00 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price falls amid renewed US Dollar (USD) demand.

The United Kingdom (UK) docket has the labor market report to be released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday, later this session at 07:00 GMT.

The EUR/USD pair trades 0.15% higher to near 1.1470 in the early European session on Thursday. The major currency pair gains as the Euro (EUR) rises against its major currency peers, except antipodeans, ahead of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement at 13:15 GMT.

Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) increased to 4.1% in February from previous 4%

Silver price (XAG/USD) struggles to gain ground even after sliding to a fresh monthly low of $75.50 during the late Asian trading session on Thursday.

The GBP/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on its modest Asian session gains to the 212.35 area on Thursday and retreats to the lower end of its daily range in the last hour.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, loses ground after registering nearly 0.75% gains in the previous session and is trading around 100.10 during Asian hours on Thursday.

The USD/CAD pair trades on a softer note near 1.3730 during the early European session on Thursday. Surging oil prices due to escalating Middle East tensions provide some support to the commodity-linked Loonie against the US Dollar (USD).

US President Donald Trump warned Iran against further retaliation after it attacked Qatar's Ras Laffan energy complex, causing "extensive damage" but no injuries.

Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Japan Capacity Utilization: 2.9% (January) vs 1.3%

Japan Industrial Production (YoY): 0.7% (January) vs previous 2.3%

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) above forecasts (2.2%) in January: Actual (4.3%)

The EUR/GBP pair trades in a tight range around 0.8640 during the Asian trade on Thursday. The pair consolidates as investors await monetary policy announcements by the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) during the day.

The AUD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers near the 0.7020 area during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the weekly high.

Gold (XAU/USD) stages a modest recovery from the $4,800 mark, or the lowest level since February 6, touched during the Asian session on Thursday, amid a modest downtick in the US Dollar (USD).

The GBP/USD pair gathers strength near 1.3290 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

The USD/CHF pair retraces to near 0.7910 during the Asian trading session on Thursday, following a strong Wednesday.

EUR/JPY recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 183.30 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross remains stronger as the Japanese Yen (JPY) softens after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to hold the short-term interest rate steady at 0.75%, as expected.

EUR/USD recovers its losses registered in the previous session, hovering near 1.1490 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. Daily chart technical analysis indicates a persistent bearish bias as the pair moves downwards within a descending channel pattern.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned that conflict in the Middle East could trigger a shock that sends the world economy into a tailspin, the Guardian reported on Thursday.

The AUD/JPY cross holds gains near 112.45 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) softens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces selling pressure against the US Dollar (USD) after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75%. Still, the USD/JPY pair is 0.14% down to near 159.70 as the US Dollar is underperforming its peers.

Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (0.75%)

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price loses ground after two days of gains, trading around $97.80 per barrel during the Asian hours on Thursday.

Silver (XAG/USD) edges higher after showing some resilience below the $75.00 psychological mark and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak to a one-month low, touched the previous day.

The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers near the 0.5785 region during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a part of the previous day's rejection slide from a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

The USD/JPY pair trades in negative territory around 159.70 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Greenback amid intervention fears by Japanese authorities.

USD/CAD trims gains from the prior session, trading near 1.3720 during Asian hours on Thursday.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.8975 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8909 and 6.8955 Reuters estimate.

The AUD/USD pair edges higher during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the weekly high.

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Thursday that the government's stance to leave monetary policy decisions up to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has not changed even after the Iran war.

Australia Part-Time Employment increased to 79.4K in February from previous -32.7K

Australia’s Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3% in February from 4.1% in January, according to the official data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday. The figure came in above the market consensus of 4.1%.

Australia Full-Time Employment down to -30.5K in February from previous 50.5K

Australia Participation Rate above expectations (66.7%) in February: Actual (66.9%)

Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 4.3%, above forecasts (4.1%) in February

Australia Employment Change s.a. above expectations (20.3K) in February: Actual (48.9K)

US President Donald Trump's administration plans to deploy thousands of US troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, as the US military prepares for possible next steps in its campaign against Iran, Reuters reported on Thursday. 

GBP/USD fell around 0.7% on Wednesday, sliding below the 1.3300 handle as Cable continues to grapple with the technical level. The sell-off extends the pullback from the late-January high near 1.3870, with the pair now trading below both of its key daily moving averages.

The EUR/USD pair slumps to around 1.1465 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) on a hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Attention will shift to the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision later on Thursday. 

Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) above expectations (-9.6%) in January: Actual (-5.5%)

Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) registered at 13.7% above expectations (10.5%) in January

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks declined to ¥-1B in March 13 from previous ¥385.5B

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan warns that prolonged conflict in Iran and a sustained Strait of Hormuz closure could push USD/VND above 27,000 in 2026, versus a base case of 26,300 by March and 26,600 by December.

Iran and Israel traded strikes on key energy facilities in the Middle East, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.

Gold price (XAU/USD) faces some selling pressure near $4,830 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

UOB economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen note that Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its policy rate at 4.75% in March while shifting to a more hawkish stance.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% at the end of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, adopting a cautious stance as the Iran war-related spike in energy prices adds uncertainty to the economic and inflation outlook.

New Zealand's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.2% QoQ in the fourth quarter (Q4), compared with a 0.9% expansion (revised from 1.1%) in the third quarter, Statistics New Zealand showed on Thursday. This reading came in weaker than the expectation of 0.4%.

AUD/USD fell around 1.15% on Wednesday, chalking in another sharp rejection from the 0.7100 handle to settle near 0.7025. The pair pushed briefly above 0.7120 early in the session before sellers took control, extending a pattern of failed attempts to reclaim the year-to-date high close to 0.7190.

NZD/USD dropped around 1.25% on Wednesday, knocking against the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) before sellers drove the pair sharply lower to settle near 0.5790.

The GBP/JPY register losses of 0.20& on Wednesday as investors wait for the Bank of Japan monetary policy decision on Thursday.

BNY’s EMEA Macro Strategist Geoff Yu observes that EM APAC remains the best-held equity region globally despite sharp swings and sector-specific risks such as semiconductors’ helium exposure.

According to MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan, Philippine authorities signalled that rate hikes may be considered if Oil price increases and disruptions linked to the Iran war persist.